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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Review and Analysis of Algorithmic Approaches Developed for Prognostics on CMAPSS Dataset

Benchmarking of prognostic algorithms has been challenging due to limited availability of common datasets suitable for prognostics. In an attempt to alleviate this problem several benchmarking datasets have been collected by NASA's prognostic center of excellence and made available to the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) community to allow evaluation and comparison of prognostics algorithms. Among those datasets are five C-MAPSS datasets that have been extremely popular due to their unique characteristics making them suitable for prognostics. The C-MAPSS datasets pose several challenges that have been tackled by different methods in the PHM literature. In particular, management of high variability due to sensor noise, effects of operating conditions, and presence of multiple simultaneous fault modes are some factors that have great impact on the generalization capabilities of prognostics algorithms. More than 70 publications have used the C-MAPSS datasets for developing data-driven prognostic algorithms. The C-MAPSS datasets are also shown to be well-suited for development of new machine learning and pattern recognition tools for several key preprocessing steps such as feature extraction and selection, failure mode assessment, operating conditions assessment, health status estimation, uncertainty management, and prognostics performance evaluation. This paper summarizes a comprehensive literature review of publications using C-MAPSS datasets and provides guidelines and references to further usage of these datasets in a manner that allows clear and consistent comparison between different approaches.

Uncertainty↗

Computational Approaches to Simulation and Optimization of Global Aircraft Trajectories

This study examines three possible approaches to improving the speed in generating wind-optimal routes for air traffic at the national or global level. They are: (a) using the resources of a supercomputer, (b) running the computations on multiple commercially available computers and (c) implementing those same algorithms into NASAs Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) and compares those to a standard implementation run on a single CPU. Wind-optimal aircraft trajectories are computed using global air traffic schedules. The run time and wait time on the supercomputer for trajectory optimization using various numbers of CPUs ranging from 80 to 10,240 units are compared with the total computational time for running the same computation on a single desktop computer and on multiple commercially available computers for potential computational enhancement through parallel processing on the computer clusters. This study also re-implements the trajectory optimization algorithm for further reduction of computational time through algorithm modifications and integrates that with FACET to facilitate the use of the new features which calculate time-optimal routes between worldwide airport pairs in a wind field for use with existing FACET applications. The implementations of trajectory optimization algorithms use MATLAB, Python, and Java programming languages. The performance evaluations are done by comparing their computational efficiencies and based on the potential application of optimized trajectories. The paper shows that in the absence of special privileges on a supercomputer, a cluster of commercially available computers provides a feasible approach for national and global air traffic system studies.

global air traffic optimization↗

Computational Approaches to Simulation and Optimization of Global Aircraft Trajectories

This study examines three possible approaches to improving the speed in generating wind-optimal routes for air traffic at the national or global level. They are: (a) using the resources of a supercomputer, (b) running the computations on multiple commercially available computers and (c) implementing those same algorithms into NASA’s Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) and compares those to a standard implementation run on a single CPU. Wind-optimal aircraft trajectories are computed using global air traffic schedules. The run time and wait time on the supercomputer for trajectory optimization using various numbers of CPUs ranging from 80 to 10,240 units are compared with the total computational time for running the same computation on a single desktop computer and on multiple commercially available computers for potential computational enhancement through parallel processing on the computer clusters. This study also re-implements the trajectory optimization algorithm for further reduction of computational time through algorithm modifications and integrates that with FACET to facilitate the use of the new features which calculate time-optimal routes between worldwide airport pairs in a wind field for use with existing FACET applications. The implementations of trajectory optimization algorithms use MATLAB, Python, and Java programming languages. The performance evaluations are done by comparing their computational efficiencies and based on the potential application of optimized trajectories. The paper shows that in the absence of special privileges on a supercomputer, a cluster of commercially available computers provides a good option for computing wind-optimal trajectories for national and global air traffic system studies.

Ng, Hok K.↗

Software to model AXAF image quality

This draft final report describes the work performed under this delivery order from May 1992 through June 1993. The purpose of this contract was to enhance and develop an integrated optical performance modeling software for complex x-ray optical systems such as AXAF. The GRAZTRACE program developed by the MSFC Optical Systems Branch for modeling VETA-I was used as the starting baseline program. The original program was a large single file program and, therefore, could not be modified very efficiently. The original source code has been reorganized, and a 'Make Utility' has been written to update the original program. The new version of the source code consists of 36 small source files to make it easier for the code developer to manage and modify the program. A user library has also been built and a 'Makelib' utility has been furnished to update the library. With the user library, the users can easily access the GRAZTRACE source files and build a custom library. A user manual for the new version of GRAZTRACE has been compiled. The plotting capability for the 3-D point spread functions and contour plots has been provided in the GRAZTRACE using the graphics package DISPLAY. The Graphics emulator over the network has been set up for programming the graphics routine. The point spread function and the contour plot routines have also been modified to display the plot centroid, and to allow the user to specify the plot range, and the viewing angle options. A Command Mode version of GRAZTRACE has also been developed. More than 60 commands have been implemented in a Code-V like format. The functions covered in this version include data manipulation, performance evaluation, and inquiry and setting of internal parameters. The user manual for these commands has been formatted as in Code-V, showing the command syntax, synopsis, and options. An interactive on-line help system for the command mode has also been accomplished to allow the user to find valid commands, command syntax, and command function. A translation program has been written to convert FEA output from structural analysis to GRAZTRACE surface deformation file (.dfm file). The program can accept standard output files and list files from COSMOS/M and NASTRAN finite analysis programs. Some interactive options are also provided, such as Cartesian or cylindrical coordinate transformation, coordinate shift and scale, and axial length change. A computerized database for technical documents relating to the AXAF project has been established. Over 5000 technical documents have been entered into the master database. A user can now rapidly retrieve the desired documents relating to the AXAF project. The summary of the work performed under this contract is shown.

Ahmad, Anees↗

A microprocessor based high speed space-borne packet switch

The design and performance evaluation of a single microprocessor based packet switch for use on-board a satellite are presented. The primary design criterion is to maximize the system throughput. A number of protocols and their impact on the switch design are discussed. Stem and processor hardware architectures are described. The flow charts of the software required to accomplish the essential functions are presented and modification needed for use in a multisatellite network are also indicated. Maximum throughput attainable is calculated, desirable characteristics of microprocessors for this application are pointed out. A queue theoretic model of the packet switch has been developed. Analytical relationships of the average waiting times and the queue sizes at the queues and the overall average response time with the various design parameters of the switch have been obtained. A number of graphs showing the effect of variation in the number of input and output lines, data rates, destination functions, speed of output lines and some other design parameters on the performance of the switch are presented and discussed.

Arozullah, M.↗

RAG for FLAG: AI Assistance for a Physics Code

Artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly become an important tool in scientific research, where significant efforts are underway to develop tools that will expedite the research process. One area of particular impact is scientific software, which can be particularly complex, and therefore time consuming to learn and use effectively. AI assistants are increasingly helping to streamline the process by performing tasks such as interactively answering user questions or suggesting solutions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) develops several advanced scientific codes, such as FLAG, which can be used to run multiphysics simulations. With this study, our goal was to develop an AI assistant for FLAG that could help make the process of understanding the software and running physics simulations more efficient. To develop an AI assistant for FLAG, we used a method called retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), which is a technique that uses information from relevant data sources to enhance the accuracy of large language models (LLMs). We used the FLAG user manual and other FLAG documentation as the knowledge base for the RAG system. When a user provides a query, RAG retrieves relevant sections from the knowledge base in response, then uses those excerpts to generate grounded and contextually rich answers. We found that our AI assistant was able to provide context aware answers and source references to user queries. To evaluate performance, we developed a set of 40 benchmark questions and compared the accuracy of the responses to those of two standard LLMs without retrieval. Our AI assistant significantly outperformed the standard LLMs at answering FLAG-related questions, with an 82.5% accuracy rate, compared to 47.5% for both of the standard LLMs. This has the potential to make the process of learning and using FLAG much easier, especially for new users. Ultimately, it supports LANL’s broader mission by empowering scientists and engineers to focus more on discovery and analysis rather than on navigating complex software systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Strain evolution in Zr-2.5 wt% Nb observed with synchrotron X-ray diffraction

Highlights: • The X-ray diffraction is useful for in-situ monitoring of lattice strain thermal changes in differently oriented grains. • 2D elastic strain evaluation performed for α-matrix and for δ-hydride. • A change in matrix strain considered as a sum of metal thermal expansion, effect of hydrogen, and inter-granular strain. • Differently oriented hydrides have different lattice parameter and start from different strain states. The mechanical behaviour of hydrides in Zr alloy at low hydrogen concentrations continues to be the subject of research due to wide engineering application and highly complex behaviour of the Zr-H system. Significant structural differences between hydrides and α-Zr cause large dilatational strains associated with formation of the hydride precipitates in zirconium. Two hydride populations were observed to form under different strain states in the α-Zr matrix. The hysteresis of the hydrogen solubility is detected both in intensity and in strain curves for measured δ(111), α(00.2) and α{10.0} peaks. A two-dimensional analysis of α-strain was performed for the axial-hoop, hoop-radial, and axial-radial planes of Zr-2.5 wt% Nb pressure tube material. Variations in the hydrostatic and deviatoric strain components of the α-Zr with temperature were examined. In addition, a change in phase strain during a thermal excursion was considered as a sum of three cooperating components: phase thermal expansion (ε{sub T}), strains associated with other phase presenting in material (ε{sub [H]} or ε{sub matrix}), and inter-granular strain within the phase caused by Type II stresses (ε{sub other}). The present study broadens our understanding of strain evolution in a Zr-H system undergoing hydride dissolution and precipitation. An X-ray synchrotron diffraction technique enables the in-situ following of strain variations in differently oriented grain families during the thermal cycle. In contrast to widely reported the average strain value within the α-phase, the diffraction patterns generated with this technique allow the evaluation of the anisotropic directionality of strains in different phases in Zr-H system generated during phase transformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

X-Ray Testing Constellation-X Optics at MSFC's 100-m Facility

In addition to the 530-m-long X-Ray Calibration Facility (XRCF), NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) operates a 104-m-long (source-to-detector) X-ray-test facility. Originally developed and still occasionally used for stray-light testing of visible-fight optical systems, the so-called "Stray-Light Facility" now serves primarily as a convenient and inexpensive facility for performance evaluation and calibration of X-ray optics and detectors. The facility can accommodate X-ray optics up to about 1-m diameter and 12-m focal length. Currently available electron-impact sources at the facility span the approximate energy range 0.2 to 100 keV, thus supporting testing of soft- and hard-X-ray optics and detectors. Available MSFC detectors are a front-illuminated CCD (charge-coupled device) and a scanning CZT (cadmium--zinc--telluride) detector, with low-energy cut-offs of about 0.8 and 3 keV, respectively. In order to test developmental optics for the Constellation-X Project, led by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), MSFC undertook several enhancements to the facility. Foremost among these was development and fabrication of a five-degree-of-freedom (5-DoF) optics mount and control system, which translates and tilts the user-provided mirror assembly suspended from its interface plate. Initial Constellation-X tests characterize the performance of the Optical Alignment Pathfinder Two (OAP2) for the large Spectroscopy X-ray Telescope (SXT) and of demonstration mirror assemblies for the Hard X-ray Telescope (HXT). With the Centroid Detector Assembly (CDA), used for precision alignment of the Chandra (nee AXAF) mirrors, the Constellation-X SXT Team optically aligned the individual mirrors of the OAPZ at GSFC. The team then developed set-up and alignment procedures, including transfer of the alignment from the optical alignment facility at GSFC to the X-ray test facility at MSFC, using a reference flat and fiducials. The OAPZ incorporates additional ancillary features --- fixed aperture mask and movable sub-aperture mask --- to facilitate X-ray characterization of the optics. Although the OAPZ was designed to- have low sensitivity to temperature offsets and gradients, analyses showed the necessity of active temperature control for the X-ray performance testing. Thus, the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) implemented a thermal control and monitoring system, designed to hold the OAP2 close to its assembly.

O'Dell, Stephen↗

Evaluation of the Performance of Houses With and Without Supplemental Dehumidification in a Hot-Humid Climate

This report, Evaluation of the Performance of Houses with and without Supplemental Dehumidification in a Hot-Humid Climate, describes a research study that that was conducted by the Building Science Corporation (BSC) Building America Research Team. BSC seeks to research and report on the field monitoring of the performance of in-situ supplemental dehumidification systems in low energy, high performance, homes in a Hot-Humid climate. The purpose of this research project was to observe and compare the humidity control performance of new, single family, low energy, and high performance, homes. Specifically, the study sought to compare the interior conditions and mechanical systems operation between two distinct groups of houses, homes with a supplemental dehumidifier installed in addition to HVAC system, and homes without any supplemental dehumidification. The subjects of the study were ten single-family new construction homes in New Orleans, LA.Data logging equipment was installed at each home in 2012. Interior conditions and various end-use loads were monitored for one year. In terms of averages, the homes with dehumidifiers are limiting elevated levels of humidity in the living space. However, there was significant variation in humidity control between individual houses. An analysis of the equipment operation did not show a clear correlation between energy use and humidity levels. In general, no single explanatory variable appears to provide a consistent understanding of the humidity control in each house. Indoor humidity is likely due to all of the factors we have examined, and the specifics of how they are used by each occupant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Performance estimation of resonance-enhanced dual-buoy wave energy converter using coupled time-domain simulation

This article presents the modeling methodology and performance evaluation of the resonance-enhanced dual-buoy WEC (Wave Energy Converter) by HEM (hydrodynamic & electro-magnetic) fully-coupled-dynamics time-domain-simulation program. The numerical results are systematically compared with the authors’ 1/6-scale experiment. With a direct-drive linear generator, the WEC consists of dual floating cylinders and a moon-pool between the cylinders, which can utilize three resonance phenomena from moon-pool dynamics as well as heave motions of inner and outer buoys. The contact and friction between the two buoys observed in the experiment are also properly modeled in the time-domain simulation by the Coulomb-friction model. Moon-pool resonance peaks significantly exaggerated in linear potential theory are empirically adjusted through comparisons with measured values. A systematic comparative study between the simulations and experiments with and without PTO (power-take-off) is conducted, and the relative heave displacements/velocities and power outputs are well matched. Then, parametric studies are carried out with the simulation program to determine optimum generator parameters. The performance with various wave conditions is also assessed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Flight motor set 36OH005 (STS-28R). Volume 5: (Nozzle component)

A review of the performance and post flight condition of the STS-28 redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM) nozzles is presented in this document. Applicable discrepancy reports (DR's) and process departures (PD's) are presented in section 5.0. The nozzle component program team (NCPT) performance evaluation and the redesign program review board (RPRB) assessment is included in section 6.0. The STS-28 nozzle assemblies were flown on the RSRM fifth flight (Space Shuttle Columbia). The nozzles were a partially submerged convergent/divergent movable design with an aft pivot point flexible bearing. The nozzle assemblies incorporated the following features: (1) RSRM forward exit cone with snubber assembly; (2) RSRM fixed housing; (3) structural backup outer boot ring (OBR); (4) RSRM cowl ring; (5) RSRM nose inlet assembly; (6) RSRM throat assembly; (7) RSRM forward nose and aft inlet ring; (8) RSRM aft exit cone assembly with linear-shaped charge (LSC); (9) RTV backfill in joints 1, 3, and 4; (10) use of EA913 NA adhesive in place of EA913; (11) redesigned nozzle plug; and (12) carbon cloth phenolic (CCP) with 750 ppm sodium content. The RSRM fifth flight test objectives are as follows: (1) verify that flexible bearing seals operate within the specified temperature range; (2) verify that flexible bearing maintained a positive gas seal between its internal components; (3) inspect flexible bearing for damage due to water impact; (4) verify performance of the nozzle liner; (5) verify that nozzle parts are reusable; (6) verify through flight demonstration and a postflight inspection that the flexible bearing is reusable; (7) verify by inspection the remaining nozzle ablative thicknesses; and (8) verify the nozzle performance margins of safety.

Smith, Dan M., Jr.↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2018 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The TDP failure modes considered are failure to start (FTS), failure to run less than or equal to one hour (FTR≤1H), failure to run more than one hour (FTR>1H), and normally running systems FTS and failure to run (FTR). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. A highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the standby TDP unavailability estimates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Spectral solar irradiance on inclined surfaces: A fast Monte Carlo approach

Estimating spectral plane-of-array (POA) solar irradiance on inclined surfaces is an important step in the design and performance evaluation of both photovoltaic and concentrated solar plants. This work introduces a fast, line-by-line spectral, Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer model approach to simulate anisotropic distributions of shortwave radiation through the atmosphere as photon bundles impinge on inclined surfaces. This fast Monte Carlo approach reproduces the angular distribution of solar irradiance without the undesirable effects of spatial discretization and thus computes detailed POA irradiance values on surfaces at any orientation and also when surfaces are subjected to the anisotropic ground and atmospheric scattering. Polarization effects are also easily incorporated into this approach that can be considered as direct numerical simulation of the physics involved. Here, we compare our Monte Carlo radiative transfer model with the most widely used empirical transposition model, Perez4, under various conditions. The results show that the Perez4 model reproduces the more detailed Monte Carlo simulations with less than 10% deviation under clear skies for all relevant surface tilt and azimuth angles. When optically thin clouds are present, observed deviations are larger, especially when the receiving surface is strongly tilted. Deviations are also observed for large azimuth angle differences between the receiving surface and the solar position. When optically thick clouds are present, the two models agree within 15% deviation for nearly all surface orientation and tilt angles. The overall deviations are smaller when compared with cases for optically thin clouds. The Perez4 model performs very well (6.0% deviation) in comparison with the detailed MC simulations for all cases, thus validating its widespread use for practical solar applications. When detailed atmospheric profiles and cloud optical properties are available, the proposed fast Monte Carlo radiative model reproduces accurate spectral and angular POA irradiance levels for various atmospheric and cloud cover conditions, surface orientations, and different surface and ground properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Operated Valves 1998–2013

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from fiscal year 1998 through 2013 for the component reliability as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The MOV failure modes considered are failure to open/close, failure to operate or control, and spurious operation. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified in the MOV spurious operation failure rate estimate (a highly statistically significant trend), and in the MOV spurious operation failure events per reactor year (a highly statistically significant trend). Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified for failure to open/close demand rates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TREAT Neutronics Analysis of Water-Loop Concept Accommodating LWR 9-rod Bundle

Abstract. Simulation of a variety of transient conditions has been successfully achieved in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility during operation between 1959 and 1994 to support characterization and safety analysis of nuclear fuels and materials. A majority of previously conducted tests were focused on supporting sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs. Experiments evolved in complexity. Simulation of thermal-hydraulic conditions expected to be encountered by fuels and materials in a reactor environment was realized in the development of TREAT sodium loop experiment vehicles. These loops accommodated up to 7-pin fuel bundles and served to simulate more closely the reactor environment while safely delivering large quantities of energy into the test specimen. Some of the immediate TREAT restart operations will be focused on testing light water reactor (LWR) accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Similar to the sodium loop objectives, a water loop concept, developed and analyzed in the 1990’s, aimed at achieving thermal-hydraulic conditions encountered in commercial power reactors. The historic water loop concept has been analyzed in the context of a reactivity insertion accident (RIA) simulation for high burnup LWR 2-pin and 3-pin fuel bundles. Findings showed sufficient energy could be deposited into the specimens for evaluation. Similar results of experimental feasibility for the water loop concept (past and present) have recently been obtained using MCNP6.1 with ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data libraries. The old water loop concept required only two central TREAT core grid spaces. Preparation for future experiments has resulted in a modified water loop conceptual design designated the TREAT water environment recirculating loop (TWERL). The current TWERL design requires nine TREAT core grid spaces in order to place the water recirculating pump under the TREAT core. Due to the effectiveness of water moderation, neutronics analysis shows that removal of seven additional TREAT fuel elements to facilitate the experiment will not inhibit the ability to successfully simulate a RIA for the 2-pin or 3-pin bundle. This new water loop design leaves room for accommodating a larger fuel pin bundle than previously analyzed. The 7-pin fuel bundle in a hexagonal array with similar spacing of fuel pins in a SFR fuel assembly was considered the minimum needed for one central fuel pin to encounter the most correct thermal conditions. The 9-rod fuel bundle in a square array similar in spacing to pins in a LWR fuel assembly would be considered the LWR equivalent. MCNP analysis conducted on a preliminary LWR 9-rod bundle design shows that sufficient energy deposition into the central pin can be achieved well within range to investigate fuel and cladding performance in a simulated RIA. This is achieved by surrounding the flow channel with an additional annulus of water. Findings also show that a highly significant increase in TREAT to specimen power coupling factor (PCF) within the central pin can be achieved by surrounding the experiment with one to two rings of TREAT upgrade fuel assemblies. The experiment design holds promise for the performance evaluation of PWR fuel at extremely high burnup under similar reactor environment conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Lidar-Based Evaluation of HRRR Performance in California’s Diablo Range

The performance of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for capturing low-level winds near a wind energy production site during summer 2019 is evaluated. This study catalogs the ability of HRRR to predict boundary layer dynamics relevant to wind energy interests over complex terrain, which has presented challenges for weather and energy forecasting. Performance is evaluated by comparing HRRR output to wind-profiling Doppler lidars at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300. HRRR captured the diurnal profile of horizontal winds in the observed 150-m layer, despite strong underpredictions (∼4 m s −1 ) during evening and nighttime hours. These underpredictions may be a result of local speedup flows observed by the lidars, which were unresolved in HRRR due to their small spatial extent. HRRR bias magnitude relative to observations was found to be minimal during days with synoptic-scale troughs and strong 850-hPa geopotential gradients, while bias magnitude was maximal during days with synoptic ridging and weak 850-hPa geopotential gradients. To translate wind speed predictions to energy forecasting, generic turbine models were used to estimate power generation for turbines characteristic of the nearby Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area. Results show that HRRR-based energy estimates predicted daytime power generation adequately relative to lidar-based estimates with an 18-h lead time (bias magnitude < 0.4 MW from 0900 to 1400 LT) but overpredicted power during the rest of the diurnal cycle (bias > 1 MW). These results demonstrate conditions under which HRRR performs well for wind energy applications in complex terrain, while highlighting biases that require further investigation to support usage of a high-resolution model for wind energy forecasts.

Boundary layer↗