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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 to HNO3 on background stratospheric aerosols - Comparisons of model results with data

The effects of heterogeneous processing by a parameterized lower stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer on model calculations were examined using a 2D photochemical model. Model results were compared with zonally averaged LIMS data on HNO3 and NO2 and in situ measurements of NO, NO(y), and ClO, taken by the ER-2 aircraft. The results obtained are contradictory: some comparisons favor heterogeneous chemistry, and some do not. It is suggested that the assumptions made to parameterize the sulfate aerosol chemistry result in a rate of heterogeneous processing that is too vigorous.

Considine, David B.↗

A global scale mechanistic model of photosynthetic capacity (LUNA V1.0)

Abstract. Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc, max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary considerably in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated with plant functional types. In this study, we have developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA) to predict photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions. We adopt an optimality hypothesis to nitrogen allocation among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation and respiration. The LUNA model is able to reasonably capture the measured spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthetic capacity as it explains ∼ 55 % of the global variation in observed values of Vc, max25 and ∼ 65 % of the variation in the observed values of Jmax25. Model simulations with LUNA under current and future climate conditions demonstrate that modeled values of Vc, max25 are most affected in high-latitude regions under future climates. ESMs that relate the values of Vc, max25 or Jmax25 to plant functional types only are likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Simulation of Precipitation Over East Asia by Variable Resolution CAM-MPAS

This study evaluates the precipitation over East Asia simulated by the variable resolution CAM-MPAS featuring the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) atmospheric dynamical core coupled with the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5.4. Two CAM-MPAS experiments, one with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh of 120 km (MPAS-UR) and the other with a variable resolution mesh of 30 to 120 km refined over East Asia (MPAS-VR), are conducted from 1989 to 2005 following the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocol. Two regional climate model simulations at ~25 km resolution from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment East Asia second plan are also analyzed for comparison. Results show that CAM-MPAS performs better than the selected regional models in simulating the precipitation climatology over East Asia. Compared with MPAS-UR, MPAS-VR with refinement over East Asia better simulates the precipitation over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the frequency distribution of light, moderate, and heavy precipitation in various regions of China, and the interannual precipitation pattern associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. The improvements in MPAS-VR relative to MPAS-UR largely come from the decreased grid spacing rather than the use of finer-scale terrain information. Particularly, decreased grid spacing is more essential for simulating the precipitation magnitude over TP and the location of peak precipitation south of TP, likely due to the better resolved physical and dynamical processes associated with orographic precipitation. The 30-120 km CAM-MPAS model is shown to be a promising tool for precipitation simulation over East Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Urban Representation on Simulation of Hurricane Rainfall

Abstract Taking the examples of Hurricane Florence (2018) over the Carolinas and Hurricane Harvey (2017) over the Texas Gulf Coast, the study attempts to understand the performance of slab, single‐layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM), and Building Environment Parameterization (BEP) in simulating hurricane rainfall using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model simulations showed that for an intense, large‐scale event such as a hurricane, the model quantitative precipitation forecast over the urban domain was sensitive to the model urban physics. The spatial and temporal verification using the modified Kling‐Gupta efficiency and Method for Object based Diagnostic and Evaluation in Time Domain suggests that UCM performance is superior to the BEP scheme. Additionally, using the BEP urban physics scheme over UCM for landfalling hurricane rainfall simulations has helped simulate heavy rainfall hotspots.

Geology↗

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations. Part I: Cloud Fraction and Properties

Although many improvements have been made in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), clouds remain a significant source of uncertainty in general circulation models (GCMs) because their structural and optical properties are strongly dependent upon interactions between aerosol/cloud microphysics and dynamics that are unresolved in such models. Recent changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence and moist convection parameterizations in the NASA GISS Model E2 atmospheric GCM(post-CMIP5, hereafter P5) have improved cloud simulations significantly compared to its CMIP5 (hereafter C5) predecessor. A study has been performed to evaluate these changes between the P5 and C5 versions of the GCM, both of which used prescribed sea surface temperatures. P5 and C5 simulated cloud fraction (CF), liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud water path (CWP), precipitable water vapor (PWV), and relative humidity (RH) have been compared to multiple satellite observations including the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CERES-MODIS, hereafter CM), CloudSat- Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO; hereafter CC), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Although some improvements are observed in the P5 simulation on a global scale, large improvements have been found over the southern midlatitudes (SMLs), where correlations increased and both bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) significantly decreased, in relation to the previous C5 simulation, when compared to observations. Changes to the PBL scheme have resulted in improved total column CFs, particularly over the SMLs where marine boundary layer (MBL) CFs have increased by nearly 20% relative to the previous C5 simulation. Globally, the P5 simulated CWPs are 25 gm22 lower than the previous C5 results. The P5 version of the GCM simulates PWV and RH higher than its C5 counterpart and agrees well with the AMSR-E and AIRS observations. The moister atmospheric conditions simulated by P5 are consistent with the CF comparison and provide a strong support for the increase in MBL clouds over the SMLs. Over the tropics, the P5 version of the GCM simulated total column CFs and CWPs are slightly lower than the previous C5 results, primarily as a result of the shallower tropical boundary layer in P5 relative to C5 in regions outside the marine stratocumulus decks.

General circulation models↗

A new parameterization of ice heterogeneous nucleation coupled to aerosol chemistry in WRF-Chem model version 3.5.1: evaluation through ISDAC measurements

In the Arctic, during polar night and early spring, ice clouds are separated into two leading types of ice clouds (TICs): (1) TIC1 clouds characterized by a large concentration of very small crystals and TIC2 clouds characterized by a low concentration of large ice crystals. Using a suitable parameterization of heterogeneous ice nucleation is essential for properly representing ice clouds in meteorological and climate models and subsequently understanding their interactions with aerosols and radiation. Here, we describe a new parameterization for ice crystal formation by heterogeneous nucleation in water-subsaturated conditions coupled to aerosol chemistry in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). The parameterization is implemented in the Milbrandt and Yau (2005a, b) two-moment cloud microphysics scheme, and we assess how the WRF-Chem model responds to the run-time interaction between chemistry and the new parameterization. Well-documented reference cases provided us with in situ data from the spring 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) over Alaska. Our analysis reveals that the new parameterization clearly improves the representation of the ice water content (IWC) in polluted or unpolluted air masses and shows the poor performance of the reference parameterization in representing ice clouds with low IWC. The new parameterization is able to represent TIC1 and TIC2 microphysical characteristics at the top of the clouds, where heterogenous ice nucleation is most likely occurring, even with the known bias of simulated aerosols by WRF-Chem over the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Project: High-resolution Global Modeling of the Effects of Subgrid-Scale Clouds and Turbulence on Precipitating Cloud Systems

We proposed to implement, test, and evaluate recently developed turbulence parameterizations, using a wide variety of methods and modeling frameworks together with observations including ARM data. We have successfully tested three different turbulence parameterizations in versions of the Community Atmosphere Model: CLUBB, SHOC, and IPHOC. All three produce significant improvements in the simulated climate. CLUBB will be used in CAM6, and also in ACME. SHOC is being tested in the NCEP forecast model. In addition, we have achieved a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of the PDF-based parameterizations of turbulence and convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Measurements

We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2degx2.5deg. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NO(x) which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NO(y). Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the lightning production of NO(y) will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OM1 instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

Rodriquez, J. M.↗

Prognostic Power of Extreme Rainfall Scaling Formulas Across Space and Time Scales

Some studies documenting changes in extreme precipitation use scaling formulas to approximate the large percentiles of the rainfall distribution from average dynamical and thermodynamical variables, called predictors. Here we instead assess the performance of these formulas as approximations to the rain rates in individual events. We evaluate the accuracies of the scaling relationships as functions of spatial and temporal scales by analyzing tropical rainfall in a superparameterized model. Relationships using full vertical profiles of the predictors are more accurate than those using their values at specific vertical levels because they better characterize the specific dynamics of each event. Both types of scaling relationships perform well over a range of length scales from 200 to 2,000 km and time scales from an hour to a week, and their precision is higher in the case of simulations with superparameterization than with parameterized convection. Uncertainties emerging from the local use of the scaling relationships suggest that they may only characterize the intensification of individual extremes for a warming of 4–5 K or larger. Finally, we argue that these formulas can be used to reconstruct the tail of the rainfall distribution directly from its predictors without prior information on P. While scalings have been used as diagnostic equations conditioned on the occurrence of extreme rainfall, they are actually able to mimic the prognostic behavior of climate model parameterizations on a variety of scales when estimating the intensity, frequency, and spatial patterns of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subduction in an Eddy-Resolving State Estimate of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Are eddies an important contributor to subduction in the eastern subtropical gyre? Here, an adjoint model is used to combine a regional, eddy-resolving numerical model with observations to produce a state estimate of the ocean circulation. The estimate is a synthesis of a variety of in- situ observations from the Subduction Experiment, TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry, and the MTI General Circulation Model. The adjoint method is successful because the Northeast Atlantic Ocean is only weakly nonlinear. The state estimate provides a physically-interpretable, eddy-resolving information source to diagnose subduction. Estimates of eddy subduction for the eastern subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic are larger than previously calculated from parameterizations in coarse-resolution models. Furthermore, eddy subduction rates have typical magnitudes of 15% of the total subduction rate. Eddies contribute as much as 1 Sverdrup to water-mass transformation, and hence subduction, in the North Equatorial Current and the Azores Current. The findings of this thesis imply that the inability to resolve or accurately parameterize eddy subduction in climate models would lead to an accumulation of error in the structure of the main thermocline, even in the relatively-quiescent eastern subtropical gyre.

WATER MASS TRANSFORMATIONS↗

Effects of downscaled high-resolution meteorological data on the PSCF identification of emission sources

The Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) model has been successfully used for identifying regions of emission source at a long distance in this study, the PSCF model relies on backward trajectories calculated by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. In this study, we investigated the impacts of grid resolution and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization (e.g., turbulent transport of pollutants) on the PSCF analysis. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Yonsei University (YUS) parameterization schemes were selected to model the turbulent transport in the PBL within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF version 3.6) model. Two separate domain grid sizes (83 and 27 km) were chosen in the WRF downscaling in generating the wind data for driving the HYSPLIT calculation. The effects of grid size and PBL parameterization are important in incorporating the influ- ence of regional and local meteorological processes such as jet streaks, blocking patterns, Rossby waves, and terrain-induced convection on the transport of pollutants by a wind trajectory. We found high resolution PSCF did discover and locate source areas more precisely than that with lower resolution meteorological inputs. The lack of anticipated improvement could also be because a PBL scheme chosen to produce the WRF data was only a local parameterization and unable to faithfully duplicate the real atmosphere on a global scale. The MYJ scheme was able to replicate PSCF source identification by those using the Reanalysis and discover additional source areas that was not identified by the Reanalysis data. In conclusion, a potential benefit for using high-resolution wind data in the PSCF modeling is that it could discover new source location in addition to those identified by using the Reanalysis data input.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting biomass of hyperdiverse and structurally complex central Amazonian forests - a virtual approach using extensive field data

Notice on corrigendum: This paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first. Old-growth forests are subject to substantial changes in structure and species composition due to the intensification of human activities, gradual climate change and extreme weather events. Trees store ca. 90 % of the total aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests and precise tree biomass estimation models are crucial for management and conservation. In the central Amazon, predicting AGB at large spatial scales is a challenging task due to the heterogeneity of successional stages, high tree species diversity and inherent variations in tree allometry and architecture. We parameterized generic AGB estimation models applicable across species and a wide range of structural and compositional variation related to species sorting into height layers as well as frequent natural disturbances. We used 727 trees (diameter at breast height ≥ 5 cm) from 101 genera and at least 135 species harvested in a contiguous forest near Manaus, Brazil. Sampling from this data set we assembled six scenarios designed to span existing gradients in floristic composition and size distribution in order to select models that best predict AGB at the landscape level across successional gradients. We found that good individual tree model fits do not necessarily translate into reliable predictions of AGB at the landscape level. When predicting AGB (dry mass) over scenarios using our different models and an available pantropical model, we observed systematic biases ranging from -31 % (pantropical) to +39 %, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of up to 130 Mg ha -1 (pantropical). Our first and second best models had both low mean biases (0.8 and 3.9 %, respectively) and RMSE (9.4 and 18.6 Mg ha -1 ) when applied over scenarios. Predicting biomass correctly at the landscape level in hyperdiverse and structurally complex tropical forests, especially allowing good performance at the margins of data availability for model construction/calibration, requires the inclusion of predictors that express inherent variations in species architecture. The model of interest should comprise the floristic composition and size-distribution variability of the target forest, implying that even generic global or pantropical biomass estimation models can lead to strong biases. Reliable biomass assessments for the Amazon basin (i.e., secondary forests) still depend on the collection of allometric data at the local/regional scale and forest inventories including species-specific attributes, which are often unavailable or estimated imprecisely in most regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrigendum to "Predicting biomass of hyperdiverse and structurally complex central Amazonian forests — a virtual approach using extensive field data" Published in Biogeosciences, 13, 1553-1570, 2016

Old-growth forests are subject to substantial changes in structure and species composition due to the intensification of human activities, gradual climate change and extreme weather events. Trees store ca. 90% of the total aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests and precise tree biomass estimation models are crucial for management and conservation. In the central Amazon, predicting AGB at large spatial scales is a challenging task due to the heterogeneity of successional stages, high tree species diversity and inherent variations in tree allometry and architecture. We parameterized generic AGB estimation models applicable across species and a wide range of structural and compositional variation related to species sorting into height layers as well as frequent natural disturbances. We used 727 trees (diameter at breast height ≥5 cm) from 101 genera and at least 135 species harvested in a contiguous forest near Manaus, Brazil. Sampling from this data set we assembled six scenarios designed to span existing gradients in floristic composition and size distribution in order to select models that best predict AGB at the landscape level across successional gradients. We found that good individual tree model fits do not necessarily translate into reliable predictions of AGB at the landscape level. We observed systematic biases ranging from -31% (pantropical) to +39 %, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of up to 130-Mg ha -1 (pantropical), when predicting AGB (dry mass) over scenarios using our different models and an available pantropical model. Our first and second best models had both low mean biases (0.8 and 3.9 %, respectively) and RMSE (9.4 and 18.6 Mg ha -1 ) when applied over scenarios. Predicting biomass correctly at the landscape level in hyperdiverse and structurally complex tropical forests, especially allowing good performance at the margins of data availability for model construction/calibration, requires the inclusion of predictors that express inherent variations in species architecture. Furthermore, the model of interest should comprise the floristic composition and size-distribution variability of the target forest, implying that even generic global or pantropical biomass estimation models can lead to strong biases. Reliable biomass assessments for the Amazon basin (i.e., secondary forests) still depend on the collection of allometric data at the local/regional scale and forest inventories including species-specific attributes, which are often unavailable or estimated imprecisely in most regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗

Final report of “A Detailed Study of the Physical Mechanisms Controlling CO2-Brine Capillary Trapping in the Subsurface” (University of Arizona, DE-SC0006696)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) of carbon dioxide emissions generated by production or combustion of fossil fuels is a technologically viable means to reduce the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans. Using advantages of scale and location, CCS is particularly suitable for large point sources near ubiquitous deep saline aquifers, depleted gas reservoirs, or at production reservoirs for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the BES-funded research project, Oregon State University (OSU) carried out capillary trapping experiments with proxy fluids that mimic the properties of the scCO2/brine system under ambient temperatures and pressures, and successfully developed a unique and novel x-ray compatible, high-pressure, elevated temperature setup to study the scCO2/brine system under challenging reservoir conditions. Both methodologies were applied to a variety of porous media, including synthetic (glass bead) and geologic (Bentheimer sandstone) materials. The University of Arizona (UA) developed pore-scale lattice Boltzmann (LB) models which are able to handle the experimental conditions for proxy fluids, as well as the scCO2/brine system, that are capable of simulating permeability in volumes of tens of millions of fluid elements. We reached the following summary findings (main institute indicated): 1. (OSU/UA) To understand capillary trapping in a multiphase fluid-porous medium system, the system must be analyzed from a pore-scale force balance perspective; trapping can be enhanced by manipulating wetting and nonwetting phase fluid properties. 2. (OSU) Pore-scale fluid connectivity and topology has a clear and direct effect on nonwetting phase capillary trapping efficiency. 3. (OSU) Rock type and flow regime also have a pronounced effects on capillary trapping. 4. (OSU/UA) There is a predictable relationship between NWP connectivity and NWP saturation, which allows for development of injection strategies that optimize trapping. The commonly used Land model (Land, 1968) does not predict amount of trapped NWP accurately. 5. (UA) There are ambiguities regarding the segmentation of large-volume gray-scale CT data into pore-volumes suitable for pore-scale modeling. Simulated permeabilities vary by three orders of magnitude and do not resemble observed values very well. Small-volume synchrotron-based CT data (such as produced by OSU) does not suffer significantly from segmentation ambiguities. 6. (UA) A standard properly parameterized Shan-Chen model LB model is useful for simulating porous media with proxy fluids as well as the scCO2/brine system and produces results that are consistent with tomographic observations. 7. (UA) A LB model with fluid-interactions defined by a (modified) Peng-Robinson Equation of State is able to handle the scCO2/brine system with variable solid phase wettability. This model is numerically stable at temperatures between 0 and 250 °C and pressures between 3 and 50 MPa, and produces appropriate densities above the critical point of CO2 and exhibits three-phase separation below. Based on above findings OSU and UA have proposed continued experimentation and pore-scale modeling of the scCO2/brine system. The reported research has extensively covered capillary trapping using proxy fluids, but due to limited beam-time availability we were unable to apply our high-pressure CO2 setup to sufficient variation in fluid properties, and initial scCO2 connectivity. New data will also allow us to test, calibrate and apply our LB models to reservoir conditions beyond those that are currently feasible experimentally. Such experiments and simulations will also allow us to provide information how suitable proxy fluids are for the scCO2/brine system. We believe it would be worthwhile to pursue the following new research questions: 1. What are the fundamental differences in the physics underlying capillary trapping at ambient vs. supercritical conditions? 2. Do newly developed pore-scale trapping interactions and relationships translate to continuum scales? A motivation for these questions was elaborated in “Capillary Trapping of Super-Critical CO2: Linking Pore and Continuum Scales to Verify new Relationships” that was submitted to DOE-BES in 2015.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Battery state of health monitoring by estimation of the number of cyclable Li-ions

Herein this paper introduces a method to monitor battery state of health (SOH) by estimating the number of cyclable Li-ions, a health-relevant electrochemical variable. SOH monitoring is critical to battery management in balancing the trade-off between maximizing system performance and minimizing battery degradation. The decrease of cyclable Li-ions indicates the effect on the SOH of degradation mechanisms that consume cyclable Li-ions. The unavailability of the number of cyclable Li-ions through non-invasive measurements makes its estimation necessary for in-situ SOH monitoring. In this paper, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the number of cyclable Li-ions as an unknown battery parameter. The single particle model (SPM), a simplified battery electrochemical model, is used as the model in the EKF to achieve a computational complexity suitable for on-line estimation. Simulations are performed under typical electric vehicle current trajectories using an example parameter set for a hybrid-electric-vehicle battery. In the simulations, the battery is represented by the Doyle–Fuller–Newman (DFN) model, an electrochemical model with higher fidelity than the SPM. To comply with the practice, instead of using the same parameters as the DFN model in the SPM, parameterization of the SPM is performed before estimation of the number of cyclable Li-ions. The simulations show high estimation accuracy of the number of cyclable Li-ions using the EKF, even with the structural and parametric differences between the DFN model and the SPM, under both the ideal conditions and various non-ideal conditions (i.e., SOC estimation error, additional modeling error, and measurement noise).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗