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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗

Denudation, solute export, landscape evolution modeling, and geographic information system data for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA (2020-2024)

This data package contains geographic information system (GIS) layers and tabular datasets associated with the study of lithologic controls on denudation, solute export, carbon-scaling relationships, and transient landscape evolution in the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. The package includes GIS layers used to produce the Figure 2 map, including drainage, hillshade, lithology, sample locations, and basin polygons, together with comma-separated value (CSV) tables and matching CSV data dictionaries. One group of tables reports sample-level and catchment-level information for river-sediment samples analyzed for in situ-produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be), including sample names, outlet elevations, geographic coordinates, upstream drainage area, rock-type classes, production-rate scaling scheme, analyzed nuclide, catchment-averaged denudation rates, and associated lower and upper analytical uncertainties. Sample and catchment attributes provide the basis for comparing denudation rates across intrusive, shale, sedimentary, and mixed-lithology settings. A second group of tables reports supporting information for landscape-evolution modeling and the mapped geologic framework of the study area. Included files list parameter values and definitions for the two-phase landscape-evolution simulations, summarize full-domain model erosion fluxes and topographic metrics for different simulation configurations, provide a fixed-area carbon-model scaling table, and summarize mapped geologic units within the East River study domain, including geologic code, formation name, lithologic description, mapped area, and lithologic class grouping. Model outputs and geologic summaries support interpretation of transient landscape behavior and its relation to the mapped distribution of shale, intrusive, sedimentary, and surficial units. A third group of tables reports hydrologic and hydrochemical information used to quantify dissolved export from the watershed. Included files provide site-level values for drainage area, mean annual solute export, standard error of annual export, area-normalized solute yield, and equivalent weathering rate for five East River monitoring sites, along with metadata describing the number, sampling cadence, and date range of discharge records and partial and full total dissolved solids observations used in the solute-yield analyses. The package also contains a supplementary daily ion-load time series with daily mean discharge, discharge observation counts, dissolved concentrations, and daily loads for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, fluoride, dissolved silica, charge-balance bicarbonate, and total dissolved solids. The package contains GIS files, comma-separated value files (.csv), CSV data dictionaries, a file-level metadata table, a package-tree text file, and a readme text file.

10Be↗

Physics-Informed Machine Learning from Observations for Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Parameterizations and Analysis

Fusing learning from Earth observations from space and from the ground (e.g., ARM) with newly developed interpretable and generalizable physics-informed model structures to improve the parameterization of clouds and convection and advance the simulation, understanding and analysis of hydrological extreme events. This covers the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Theoretical framework for new magnetic materials for quantum computing and information storage. Final report for the Award No. DE-SC0018910

The focus of this grant was on molecular magnetic materials for information storage and quantum computing. We have been developing robust, first-principle methods for computing relevant electronic and magnetic properties of molecular building blocks (SMMs) of novel magnetic materials and quantum computers. These tools enable theoretical modeling of SMMs’ behavior, facilitating the interpretation of experimental studies and aiding the design of novel magnetic materials. Our strategy is based on the spin-flip (SF) approach, which extends the hierarchy of black-box single-reference methods to strongly correlated systems. Specifically, we developed general scalable algorithms and computer codes for calculating molecular properties, with an emphasis on spin-related properties, such as zero-field splittings, hyperfine couplings, and g-tensors. While our primary focus was on SF wave functions and SF-TDDFT, the underlying theory and computer codes were formulated using reduced density matrices, such that these tools are applicable to a broader class of methods. To extend the scope of applicability of wave-function-based SF methods to larger systems, we developed reduced-scaling approaches for the equation-of-motion coupled-cluster (EOM-CC) methods and continue developing libtensor (our open-source general tensor contraction library for many-body methods). We carried out extensive benchmarks and also carried out several applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

COMAP Early Science. V. Constraints and Forecasts at z ~ 3

We present the current state of models for the z ~ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc –1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μK 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μK 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ~ 1 Mpc –1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, ${\left\langle {Tb}\right\rangle }_{2}$ ≲ 50 μK 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 M ⊙ Mpc –3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring the elevated water vapor signal associated with the free tropospheric biomass burning plume over the southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6-7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (~6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Cloud-resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM) Version 3.3: description and applications of a virtual observatory

Ground-based observatories use multi-sensor observations to characterize cloud and precipitation properties. One of the challenges is how to design strategies to best use these observations to understand these properties and evaluate weather and climate models. This paper introduces the Cloud resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM), which uses output from high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) to emulate multi-wavelength, zenith-pointing, and scanning radar observables and multi-sensor (radar and lidar) products. CR-SIM allows direct comparison between an atmospheric model simulation and remote-sensing products using a forward-modeling framework consistent with the microphysical assumptions used in the atmospheric model. CR-SIM has the flexibility to easily incorporate additional microphysical modules, such as microphysical schemes and scattering calculations, and expand the applications to simulate multi-sensor retrieval products. In this paper, we present several applications of CR-SIM for evaluating the representativeness of cloud microphysics and dynamics in a CRM, quantifying uncertainties in radar-lidar integrated cloud products and multi-Doppler wind retrievals, and optimizing radar sampling strategy using observing system simulation experiments. These applications demonstrate the application of CR-SIM as a virtual observatory operator on high-resolution model output for a consistent comparison between model results and observations to aid interpretation of the differences and improve understanding of the representativeness errors due to the sampling limitations of the ground-based measurements. CR-SIM is licensed under the GNU GPL package and both the software and the user guide are publicly available to the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local-time survey of plasma at low altitudes over the auroral zones

A local-time survey of the low energy proton and electron intensities precipitated into the earth's atmosphere during periods of magnetic quiescence was constructed. A typical, individual satellite crossing of this region in each of eight local-time sectors was selected from a library of similar observations with the polar-orbiting satellite Injun 5. The trapping boundary for more energetic electron intensities, E 45 keV, is a natural coordinate for delineating the boundary between the two major types of lower energy, 50 or = E or = 15,000 eV. The main contributors to electron energy influx are inverted V precipitation poleward of the trapping boundary and the plasma sheet intensities equatorward. These are interpreted in terms of a magnetospheric model.

Frank, L. A.↗

Balloon measurements of cosmic ray protons and helium over half a solar cycle 1965-1969.

Evaluation of differential energy spectra for protons and helium covering the energy range from 100 to 260 MeV/nucleon obtained from balloon flights made each summer (1965 to 1969) at Churchill, Manitoba, with the aid of a Geiger-tube hodoscope operated in conjunction with two scintillation elements used to measure dE/dx and E. Supplementary data from balloon flights at Minneapolis, Minn., and Sioux Falls, S. Dak. and from calibration exposures to protons and electrons were used to define backgrounds and to verify the predicted detector response. The observed proton spectra are characterized over a wide range of energy (30 to 300 MeV) by a simple relationship between cosmic-ray intensity J and kinetic energy T: J = AT. The helium spectra also follow this law at solar maximum but rise less steeply near solar minimum. This characteristic behavior can be interpreted in terms of a simple model in which convection is balanced by adiabatic deceleration.-

Rygg, T. A.↗

Temporal variations in night-time hydroxyl rotational temperature.

Airborne and groundbased OH measurements showing short-term temporal variations in OH rotational temperature are presented. These variations are interpreted in terms of a dynamic model of the OH emitting layer in which the intensity variations result from the changes in temperature the OH layer undergoes as it moves during the night.

Sivjee, G. G.↗

X-ray study of solar plage regions and a small flare.

The O VII and Ne IX resonance line and 5 keV continuum emission of a small solar flare are interpreted on the basis of a model in which the emission measure of the region is an exponentially decreasing function of temperature. Good agreement with all three sets of data is obtained - a result not possible on the basis of an isothermal approximation. The change in the emission of the flare over a two minute interval appears to be consistent with a simple cooling of the region. Computation of the contribution function versus temperature for each emission indicates that each predominantly comes from a physically separate volume within the feature. The emission measure distribution for the flare is distinctly flatter than that of five plage regions which tend to have similar slopes and which are in turn flatter than the general corona.

Acton, L. W.↗

Fuel cells and the theory of metals.

Metal theory is used to study the role of metal catalysts in electrocatalysis, with particular reference to alkaline hydrogen-oxygen fuel cells. Use is made of a simple model, analogous to that used to interpret field emission in vacuum. Theoretical values for all the quantities in the Tafel equation are obtained in terms of bulk properties of the metal catalysts (such as free electron densities and Fermi level). The reasons why some processes are reversible (H-electrodes) and some irreversible (O-electrodes) are identified. Selection rules for desirable properties of catalytic materials are established.

Bocciarelli, C. V.↗

Space tug economic analysis study. Volume 2: Tug concepts analysis. Part 1: Overall approach and data generation

An economic analysis of space tug operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) data base for orbit injection stages, (2) data base for reusable space tug, (3) performance equations, (4) data integration and interpretation, (5) tug performance and mission model accomodation, (6) total program cost, (7) payload analysis, (8) computer software, and (9) comparison of tug concepts.

Source record↗

Remote monitoring of soil moisture using airborne microwave radiometers

The current status of microwave radiometry is provided. The fundamentals of the microwave radiometer are reviewed with particular reference to airborne operations, and the interpretative procedures normally used for the modeling of the apparent temperature are presented. Airborne microwave radiometer measurements were made over selected flight lines in Chickasha, Oklahoma and Weslaco, Texas. Extensive ground measurements of soil moisture were made in support of the aircraft mission over the two locations. In addition, laboratory determination of the complex permittivities of soil samples taken from the flight lines were made with varying moisture contents. The data were analyzed to determine the degree of correlation between measured apparent temperatures and soil moisture content.

Kroll, C. L.↗

Turbulent heating of colliding streams in the solar wind.

Turbulent heating of colliding plasma streams has previously been observed in the solar wind. The original data were interpreted in terms of a fluid model. It is contended that a plasma-kinetic description is the more appropriate theoretical approach and is necessary in order to better understand the microscopic physical phenomena that underlie all fluid models. Microscopic solar-wind parameters characteristic of conditions during the observations were used, together with the quasi-linear plasma-kinetic theory, to compute the expected magnetic field and temperature enhancements in the interaction region between two counterstreaming plasma beams. The physical mechanism of excitation is the electromagnetic two-stream instability in which Alfven waves are unstable. A total field in the interaction region of about 8 gamma and a change in temperature of about 100,000 K are obtained.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

Attitude control concepts for precision-pointing nonrigid spacecraft

Literal criteria are developed for the controllability and observability of general models of flexible spacecraft. Results are interpreted in special cases and in physical terms, permitting in some cases the identification of uncontrollable and unobservable states simply by examination of scalars composed of modal parameters and location matrices for sensors and actuators. A procedure is established for isolation of uncontrollable states, whereby sensor and actuator configurations assure that uncontrollable flexible mode states are also unobservable; in many applications such states can then be removed by coordinate truncation.

Likins, P. W.↗

The influence of spacecraft flexibility on system controllability and observability

Literal criteria are developed for the controllability and observability of general models of flexible spacecraft. Results are interpreted in special cases and in physical terms, permitting in some cases the identification of uncontrollable and unobservable states simply by examination of scalars composed of modal parameters and location matrices for sensors and actuators. A procedure is established for isolation of uncontrollable states, whereby sensor and actuator configuration assure that uncontrollable flexible mode states are also unobservable; in many applications such states can then be removed by coordinate truncation.

Ohkami, Y.↗