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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
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DOE OSTI2020

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Listening for the Landing: Seismic Detections of Perseverance's Arrival at Mars With InSight

The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence of NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover will act as a seismic source of known temporal and spatial localization. We evaluate whether the signals produced by this event will be detectable by the InSight lander (3,452 km away), comparing expected signal amplitudes to noise levels at the instrument. Modeling is undertaken to predict the propagation of the acoustic signal (purely in the atmosphere), the seismoacoustic signal (atmosphere-to-ground coupled), and the elastodynamic seismic signal (in the ground only). Our results suggest that the acoustic and seismoacoustic signals, produced by the atmospheric shock wave from the EDL, are unlikely to be detectable due to the pattern of winds in the martian atmosphere and the weak air-to-ground coupling, respectively. However, the elastodynamic seismic signal produced by the impact of the spacecraft's cruise balance masses on the surface may be detected by InSight. The upper and lower bounds on predicted ground velocity at InSight are 2.0 × 10 -14 and 1.3 × 10 -10 m s -1 . The upper value is above the noise floor at the time of landing 40% of the time on average. The large range of possible values reflects uncertainties in the current understanding of impact-generated seismic waves and their subsequent propagation and attenuation through Mars. Uncertainty in the detectability also stems from the indeterminate instrument noise level at the time of this future event. A positive detection would be of enormous value in constraining the seismic properties of Mars, and in improving our understanding of impact-generated seismic waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Retrospective and Prospective Examination of the 1960s U.S. Northeast Drought

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021–2027), middle (2041–2047), and late (2091–2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack, and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend toward wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low Molecular Weight Dissolved Organic Carbon: Aging, Compositional Changes, and Selective Utilization During Global Ocean Circulation

The composition and cycling dynamics of marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have received increased interest in recent years; however, little research has focused on the refractory, low molecular weight (LMW) component that makes up the majority of this massive C pool. In this study, we measured stable isotopic (δ 13 C), radioisotopic (Δ 14 C), and compositional (C/N, 13 C solid-state NMR) properties of separately isolated high molecular weight (HMW) and LMW DOC fractions collected using a coupled ultrafiltration and solid phase extraction approach from throughout the water column in the North Central Pacific and Central North Atlantic. The selective isolation of LMW DOC material allowed the first investigation of the composition and cycling of a previously elusive fraction of the DOC pool. The structural composition of the LMW DOC material was homogeneous throughout the water column and closely matched carboxylic-rich alicyclic material that has been proposed as a major component of the marine refractory DOC pool. Examination of offsets in the measured parameters between the deep waters of the two basins provides the first direct assessment of changes in the properties of this material with aging and utilization during ocean circulation. While our direct measurements largely confirm hypotheses regarding the relative recalcitrance of HMW and LMW DOC, we also demonstrate a number of novel observations regarding the removal and addition of DOC during global ocean circulation, including additions of fresh carbohydrate-like HMW DOC to the deep ocean and large-scale removal of both semilabile HMW and recalcitrant LMW DOC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hysteresis Patterns of Watershed Nitrogen Retention and Loss Over the Past 50 years in United States Hydrological Basins

Patterns of watershed nitrogen (N) retention and loss are shaped by how watershed biogeochemical processes retain, biogeochemically transform, and lose incoming atmospheric deposition of N. Loss patterns represented by concentration, discharge, and their associated stream exports are important indicators of integrated watershed N retention behaviors. We examined continental United States (CONUS) scale N deposition (e.g., wet and dry atmospheric deposition), vegetation trends, and stream trends as potential indicators of watershed N-saturation and retention conditions, and how watershed N retention and losses vary over space and time. By synthesizing changes and modalities in watershed nitrogen loss patterns based on stream data from 2200 U.S. watersheds over a 50 years record, our work revealed two patterns of watershed N-retention and loss. One was a hysteresis pattern that reflects the integrated influence of hydrology, atmospheric inputs, land-use, stream temperature, elevation, and vegetation. The other pattern was a one-way transition to a new state. We found that regions with increasing atmospheric deposition and increasing vegetation health/biomass patterns have the highest N-retention capacity, become increasingly N-saturated over time, and are associated with the strongest declines in stream N exports—a pattern, that is, consistent across all land cover categories. We provide a conceptual model, validated at an unprecedented scale across the CONUS that links instream nitrogen signals to upstream mechanistic landscape processes. Our work can aid in the future interpretation of in-stream concentrations of DOC and DIN as indicators of watershed N-retention status and integrators of watershed hydrobiogeochemical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Heat Flow on the U.S. Beaufort Margin, Arctic Ocean: Implications for Ocean Warming, Methane Hydrate Stability, and Regional Tectonics

The Arctic Ocean represents one of the last geological frontiers on Earth. The formation of the Arctic Ocean remains unclear, and although it is well understood that the Arctic surface temperature is warming at a rate approximately twice as fast as the rest of the Earth, it is unclear how deep Arctic Ocean temperatures are changing. Understanding whether deep Arctic Ocean water is warming is important, since it can lead to the breakdown and release of huge quantities of frozen methane molecules trapped below the Arctic seafloor, which can increase ocean acidity and destabilize the seafloor. To understand both Arctic Ocean temperature change and geologic evolution, we collected temperature measurements at 103 sites. These measurements tell us how temperature increases with depth below the seafloor and can be used to understand both ocean temperature change and regional geology. Analysis of our data shows that at depths of 300–900 m below sea level, the Arctic Ocean has been warming steadily for perhaps several decades—nearly twice as deep as previous studies suggest. At ocean depths greater than 1,000 m, our analysis also reveals surprisingly high temperature increases with depth in the seafloor. The cause of these significant increases is unclear.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Ambient Noise Seismic Interferometry and Local and Teleseismic Earthquakes to Determine Crustal Thickness and Moho Structure of the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico Margin

Abstract The northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico has undergone two episodes of continental rifting and collision and produced structural artifacts that are now buried under many kilometers of sediments, complicating investigations of the region. The deep sedimentary package precludes outcrops and points to a need for the application of seismic techniques, but low rates of seismicity in the region and sparse seismic monitoring limit the utility of traditional seismic methods. We therefore use diverse data to perform two‐dimensional seismic tomography across the dry land portion of the margin. Data are gleaned from teleseismic and regional earthquakes, postcritical SsPmp arrivals, and direct P wave energy identified with seismic interferometry that were recorded by a broadband, three‐component array and partially overlapping short‐period, vertical‐component array. The Pn and postcritical SsPmp phase help constrain the Moho discontinuity, which a previous receiver function study suggested was absent beneath the seaward portion of this transect. A high‐velocity body is observed in the crust at the same location as the Houston Magnetic Anomaly, possibly marking rocks from the Alleghenian continental assembly. The crust thins from NW to SE, indicating that extension occurred mostly to the south of the Ouachita orogeny. Our model indicates that the margin's sediment package reaches a maximum thickness of ~15 km at the coast and becomes unresolvably thin near the Llano Uplift.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing the Recycled Gabbro Hypothesis for the Origin of “Ghost Plagioclase” Melt Signatures Using 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of Individual Olivine-Hosted Melt Inclusions From Hawai'i

Melt inclusions with large, positive Sr anomalies have been described in multiple tectonic settings, and the origins of this unusual geochemical feature are debated. Three origins have been proposed, all involving plagioclase as the source of the elevated Sr: (i) direct assimilation of plagioclase-rich lithologies, (ii) recycled lower oceanic gabbro in the mantle source, and (iii) shallow-level diffusive interaction between present day lower oceanic crust (i.e., plagioclase-bearing lithologies) and the percolating melt. A “ghost plagioclase” signature (i.e., a large, positive Sr anomaly without associated high Al 2 O 3 ) is present in melt inclusions from Mauna Loa. Here, we present new 87 Sr/ 86 Sr measurements of individual olivine-hosted melt inclusions from three Hawaiian volcanoes, Mauna Loa, Loihi, and Koolau. The data set includes a Mauna Loa melt inclusion with the highest reported Sr anomaly (or highest (Sr/Ce) N , which is 7.2) for Hawai'i. All melt inclusions have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values within the range reported previously for the lavas from each volcano. Critically, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the high (Sr/Ce) N melt inclusion lies within the narrow range of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr for Mauna Loa melts that lack high (Sr/Ce) N signatures. Therefore, to explain the high (Sr/Ce) N ratio of the ghost plagioclase signature using an ancient recycled gabbro, the gabbro-infused mantle source would have had to evolve, by chance, to have the same 87 Sr/ 86 Sr as the source of the Mauna Loa melts that lack a recycled gabbro (ghost plagioclase) signature. Alternatively, shallow-level diffusive interactions between Mauna Loa plagioclase-rich cumulates and a percolating mantle-derived melt provides a simpler explanation for the presence of the high (Sr/Ce) N Mauna Loa melts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

InterCarb: A Community Effort to Improve Interlaboratory Standardization of the Carbonate Clumped Isotope Thermometer Using Carbonate Standards

Abstract Increased use and improved methodology of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has greatly enhanced our ability to interrogate a suite of Earth‐system processes. However, interlaboratory discrepancies in quantifying carbonate clumped isotope (Δ 47 ) measurements persist, and their specific sources remain unclear. To address interlaboratory differences, we first provide consensus values from the clumped isotope community for four carbonate standards relative to heated and equilibrated gases with 1,819 individual analyses from 10 laboratories. Then we analyzed the four carbonate standards along with three additional standards, spanning a broad range of δ 47 and Δ 47 values, for a total of 5,329 analyses on 25 individual mass spectrometers from 22 different laboratories. Treating three of the materials as known standards and the other four as unknowns, we find that the use of carbonate reference materials is a robust method for standardization that yields interlaboratory discrepancies entirely consistent with intralaboratory analytical uncertainties. Carbonate reference materials, along with measurement and data processing practices described herein, provide the carbonate clumped isotope community with a robust approach to achieve interlaboratory agreement as we continue to use and improve this powerful geochemical tool. We propose that carbonate clumped isotope data normalized to the carbonate reference materials described in this publication should be reported as Δ 47 (I‐CDES) values for Intercarb‐Carbon Dioxide Equilibrium Scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preseismic Fault Creep and Elastic Wave Amplitude Precursors Scale With Lab Earthquake Magnitude for the Continuum of Tectonic Failure Modes

Tectonic faults fail in a continuum of modes from slow earthquakes to elastodynamic rupture. Precursory variations in elastic wavespeed and amplitude, interpreted as indicators of imminent failure, have been observed in limited natural settings and lab experiments where they are thought to arise from contact rejuvenation and microcracking within and around the fault zone. However, the physical mechanisms and connections to fault creep are poorly understood. Here we vary loading stiffness during frictional shear to generate a range of slip modes and measure fault zone properties using transmitted elastic waves. We find that elastic wave amplitudes show clear changes before fault failure. The temporal onset of amplitude reduction scales with lab earthquake magnitude and the magnitude of this reduction varies with fault slip. Our data provide clear evidence of precursors to lab earthquakes and suggest that continuous seismic monitoring could be useful for assessing fault state and seismic hazard potential.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning Emulation of Subgrid-Scale Processes in Turbulent Shear Flows

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are developed from a data set obtained from the dynamic Smagorinsky model to emulate the subgrid-scale (SGS) viscosity (ν sgs ) and diffusivity (κ sgs ) for turbulent stratified shear flows encountered in the oceans and the atmosphere. These DNNs predict ν sgs and κ sgs from velocities, strain rates, and density gradients such that the evolution of the kinetic energy budget and density variance budget terms is similar to the corresponding values obtained from the original dynamic Smagorinsky model. These DNNs also compute ν sgs and κ sgs ~2–4 times quicker than the dynamic Smagorinsky model resulting in a ~2–2.5 times acceleration of the entire simulation. This study demonstrates the feasibility of deep learning in emulating the subgrid-scale (SGS) phenomenon in geophysical flows accurately in a cost-effective manner. In a broader perspective, deep learning-based surrogate models can present a promising alternative to the traditional parameterizations of the subgrid-scale processes in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Based Analysis of the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas Earthquakes: A Tale of Two Sequences

Here, we revisited the June 2010 to October 2011 Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence in central Arkansas using PhaseNet, a deep neural network trained to pick P and S arrival times. We applied PhaseNet to continuous waveform data and used phase association and hypocenter relocation to locate nearly 90,000 events. Our catalog suggests that the sequence consists of two adjacent earthquake sequences on the same fault and that the second sequence may be associated with the wastewater disposal well to the west of the Guy-Greenbrier Fault, rather than the wells to the north and the east that were previously implicated. We find that each sequence is composed of many small clusters that exhibit diffusion along the fault at shorter timescales. Our study demonstrates that machine-learning-based earthquake catalog development is now feasible and will yield new insights into earthquake behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regional MJO Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Driven by Multiple Transient Controls

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), but a complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains uncertain. Beyond established effects of the MJO's relative humidity envelope, other dynamical factors have recently been invoked via new genesis potential indices and high-resolution modeling studies. Here we revisit the ability of the MJO to modulate West Pacific TCs through a quasi-explicit cyclone downscaling strategy driven by composited observations, paired later with a genesis index to investigate regional drivers of modulation. In this work, we reveal two distinct spatial modes of TC modulation in which the MJO's dynamic and thermodynamic effects act in tandem to increase TCs. In the South China Sea, for instance, shear reductions associated with the MJO's circulation lead to increasing potential intensity ahead of the arrival of a positive humidity anomaly, all of which combine for an extended period of cyclogenesis favorability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electron Mixing and Isotropization in the Exhaust of Asymmetric Magnetic Reconnection With a Guide Field

In this work, we investigate an exhaust crossing of asymmetric guide field reconnection observed by Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission at Earth's dayside magnetopause. One MMS spacecraft (MMS 4) observes multicomponent electron distributions, including two counterstreaming electron beams, while the other three MMS spacecraft, with a separation of ~30 km, record nearly isotropic electron distributions. As counterstreaming electrons are unstable for the electron two-stream instability, our observations suggest that the electrostatic waves generated by the fast-growing electron two-stream instability can contribute to the rapid isotropization of electron distributions in the reconnection exhaust, indicating that wave-particle interactions play an important role in electron dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for tropical cyclones in global climate model simulations

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for evaluating tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is presented here. In contrast to the previous studies that used idealized axisymmetric wind fields, this study analyzes 48 hours of 10-second surface wind fields from 1-km TC simulations. The adjustment factor is derived from filtering the simulated TC wind fields onto various horizontal grid spacings typical of those used in GCMs. The new adjustment factor leads to TCs with greater intensity than the existing adjustment factors for horizontal grid spacings smaller than 30 km. This difference is attributed to more realistic wind fields in the TC simulations that contain highly asymmetric, localized patches of higher wind speeds instead of axisymmetric wind fields. Applying the new adjustment factor to select GCM simulations suggests the common interpretation of low-intensity bias in GCM-simulated TCs might be slightly exaggerated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗