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NASA NTRS2005

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to total melt due to warming in the Arctic, especially in spring.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Hadronic Synchrotron Mirror Model for the "Orphan" Tev Flare in 1ES 1959+650

Very high energy gamma-ray flares of TeV blazars are generally accompanied by simultaneous flaring activity in X-rays. The recent observations by the Whipple collaboration of an "orphan" TeV flare of 1 ES 1959+650 (without a simultaneous X-ray flare) are very difficult to reconcile with the standard leptonic synchrotron self-Compton model, which is routinely very successfully employed to explain the spectral energy distribution and spectral variability of TeV blazars. In this paper an alternative scenario is suggested in which the orphan TeV flare may originate from relativistic protons, interacting with an external photon field supplied by electron synchrotron radiation reflected off a dilute reflector. While the external photons will be virtually "invisible" to the comoving ultrarelativistic electrons in the jet because of Klein-Nishina effects, their Doppler-boosted energy is high enough to excite a Delta-resonance from relativistic protons with Lorentz factors of gamma(sub p) approx. 10(exp 3)-10(exp 4). This model is capable of explaining the orphan TeV flare of 1ES 1959+650 with plausible parameters, thus constraining the number and characteristic energy of relativistic protons in the jet of this blazar.

Bottcher, Markus↗

NASA NTRS2005

Neutrino Emission in the Hadronic Synchrotron Mirror Model: The "Orphan" Flare from 1ES 1959+650

A challenge to standard leptonic synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models is the so-called orphan TeV flares, i.e., enhanced very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission without any contemporaneous X-ray flaring activity, that have recently been observed in TeV blazars (e.g., 1ES 1959+650). In order to explain the orphan TeV flare of 1 ES 1959+650 observed in 2002 June, the so-called hadronic synchrotron mirror model has been developed. Here relativistic protons are proposed to exist in the jet and interact with reflected electron synchrotron radiation of the precursor SSC flare. If the reflector is located in the cloud region, time shifts of several days are possible between the precursor and the orphan flare. The external photons, blue-shifted in the comoving jet frame, are able to excite the Delta(1232) resonance when interacting with protons of Lorentz factors gamma(sub p) approx. 10(exp 3)-10(exp 4). The decay products of this resonance include charged pions, which, on decay, give rise to neutrino production during the orphan flare. In this paper we calculate the expected neutrino emission for the 2002 June 4 orphan TeV flare of 1ES 1959+650. We compare our results with the recent observations of AMANDA-II of a neutrino event in spatial and temporal coincidence with the orphan flare of this blazar. We find that the expected neutrino signal from the hadronic synchrotron mirror model is insufficient to explain the claimed neutrino signal from the direction of 1ES 1959+650.

Reimer, A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Geochemistry of Pallasite Olivines and the Origin of Main-Group Pallasites

Main-group pallasites (PMG) are mixtures of iron-nickel metal and magnesian olivine thought to have been formed at the core-mantle boundary of an asteroid [1]. Some have anomalous metal compositions (PMG-am) and a few have atypically ferroan olivines (PMG-as) [2]. PMG metal is consistent with an origin as a late fractionate of the IIIAB iron core [2]. Most PMG olivines have very similar Fe/Mg ratios, likely due to subsolidus redox reaction with the metal [3]. In contrast, minor and trace elements show substantial variation, which may be explained by either: (i) PMG were formed at a range of depths in the parent asteroid; the element variations reflect variations in igneous evolution with depth, (ii) the pallasite parent asteroid was chemically heterogeneous; the heterogeneity partially survived igneous processing, or (iii) PMG represent the core-mantle boundaries of several distinct parent asteroids [4, 5]. We have continued doing major, minor and trace elements by EMPA and INAA on a wider suite of PMG olivines, and have begun doing precise oxygen isotope analyses to test these hypotheses. Manganese is homologous with Fe(2+), and can be used to distinguish between magmatic and redox processes as causes for Fe/Mg variations. PMG olivines have a range in molar 1000*Mn/Mg of 2.3-4.6 indicating substantial igneous fractionation in olivines with very similar Fe/Mg (0.138-0.148). The Mg-Mn-Fe distributions can be explained by a fractional crystallization-reduction model; higher Mn/Mg ratios reflect more evolved olivines while Fe/Mg is buffered by redox reactions with the metal. There is a positive association between Mn/Mg and Sc content that is consistent with igneous fractionation. However, most PMG olivines fall within a narrow Mn/Mg range (3.0-3.6), but these show a substantial range in Sc (1.00-2.29 micro-g/g). Assuming fractional crystallization, this Sc range could have resulted from approx.65% crystallization of an ultramafic magma. This is inconsistent with formation at the core-mantle boundary of a single asteroid [4]. One alternative is that the PMG are fragments of several asteroids, and these could have had different initial Sc contents, Mn/Mg and differences in igneous history. Our preliminary O isotope data and those of [6, 7] do not support this, although the coverage of PMG olivines is incomplete. The PMG-as Springwater is not easily fit in any scenario. Its olivine has among the highest Mn/Mg suggesting it is one of the most evolved, but the lowest Sc content suggesting it is the least evolved. The O isotopic composition of Springwater olivine is the same as that of other PMG. Thus there is no indication that it represents a distinct parent asteroid. Our preliminary O isotopic data favor a single PMG parent asteroid. In this case, the olivines are more likely melt-residues, and that the parent asteroid was initially heterogeneous in chemical, but not isotopic, composition.

Mittlefehldt, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Latitudinal Excursion of Coronal Magnetic Field Lines in Response to Differential Rotation: MHD Simulations

Solar energetic particles, which are believed to originate from corotating interacting regions (CIRS) at low heliographic latitude, were observed by the Ulysses spacecraft even as it passed over the Sun's poles. One interpretation of this result is that high-latitude field lines intercepted by Ulysses connect to low-latitude CIRs at much larger heliocentric distances. The Fisk model explains the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in the solar corona and heliosphere as the inevitable consequence of the interaction of a tilted dipole in a differentially rotating photosphere with rigidly rotating coronal holes. We use a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) algorithm to follow the evolution of a simple model of the solar corona in response to the differential rotation of the photospheric magnetic flux. We examine the changes of the coronal-hole boundaries, the redistribution of the line-of-sight magnetic field, and the precession of field lines in the corona. Our results confirm the basic idea of the Fisk model, that differential rotation leads to changes in the heliographic latitude of magnetic field lines. However, the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in this simple "tilted dipole" model is too small to explain the Ulysses observations. Although coronal holes in our model rotate more rigidly than do photospheric features (in general agreement with observations), they do not rotate strictly rigidly as assumed by Fisk. This basic difference between our model and Fisk's will be explored in the future by considering more realistic magnetic flux distributions, as observed during Ulysses polar excursions.

Lionello, Roberto↗

NASA NTRS2006

Observations of the Hot Horizontal Branch Stars in the Metal-Rich Bulge Globular Cluster NGC 6388

The metal-rich bulge globular cluster NGC 6388 shows a distinct blue horizontal-branch tail in its colour-magnitude diagram (Rich et al. 1997) and is thus a strong case of the well-known 2nd Parameter Problem. In addition, its horizontal branch (HB) shows an upward tilt toward bluer colours, which cannot be explained by canonical evolutionary models. Several non-canonical scenarios have been proposed to explain these puzzling observations. In order to test the predictions of these scenarios, we have obtained medium resolution spectra to determine the atmospheric parameters of a sample of the blue HB stars in NGC 6388.Using the medium resolution spectra, we determine effective temperatures, surface gravities and helium abundances by fitting the observed Balmer and helium lines with appropriate theoretical stellar spectra. As we know the distance to the cluster, we can verify our results by determining masses for the stars. During the data reduction we took special care to correctly subtract the background, which is dominated by the overlapping spectra of cool stars. The cool blue tail stars in our sample with T(sub eff) approximately 10000 K have lower than canonical surface gravities, suggesting that these stars are, on average, approximately equal to 0.4 mag brighter than canonical HB stars in agreement with the observed upward slope of the HB in NGC 6388. Moreover, the mean mass of these stars agrees well with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the hot blue tail stars in our sample with T(sub eff) greater than or equal to 12000 K show significantly lower surface gravities than predicted by any scenario, which can reproduce the photometric observations. Their masses are also too low by about a factor of 2 compared to theoretical predictions. The physical parameters of the blue HB stars at about 10,000 K support the helium pollution scenario. The low gravities and masses of the hot blue tail stars, however, are probably caused by problems with the data reduction, most likely due to remaining background light in the spectra, which would affect the fainter hot blue tail stars much more strongly than the brighter cool blue tail stars. Our study of the hot blue tail stars in NGC 6388 illustrates the obstacles which are encountered when attempting to determine the atmospheric parameters of hot HB stars in very crowded fields using ground-based observations. We discuss these obstacles and offer possible solutions for future projects.

Moehler, S.↗

NASA NTRS2006

On Space-Time Inversion Invariance and its Relation to Non-Dissipatedness of a CESE Core Scheme

The core motivating ideas of the space-time CESE method are clearly presented and critically analyzed. It is explained why these ideas result in all the simplifying and enabling features of the CESE method. A thorough discussion of the a scheme, a two-level non-dissipative CESE solver of a simple advection equation with two independent mesh variables and two equations per mesh point is also presented. It is shown that the scheme possesses some rather intriguing properties such as: (i) its two independent mesh variables separately satisfy two decoupled three-level leapfrog schemes and (ii) it shares with the leapfrog scheme the same amplification factors, even though the a scheme and the leapfrog scheme have completely different origins and structures. It is also explained why the leapfrog scheme is not as robust as the a scheme. The amplification factors/matrices of several non-dissipative schemes are carefully studied and the key properties that contribute to their non-dissipatedness are clearly spelled out. Finally we define and establish space-time inversion (STI) invariance for several non-dissipative schemes and show that their non-dissipatedness is a result of their STI invariance.

Chang, Sin-Chung↗

NASA NTRS2006

Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.

Moreno, Marcelo Baena↗

NASA NTRS2006

A New Look at Some Solar Wind Turbulence Puzzles

Some aspects of solar wind turbulence have defied explanation. While it seems likely that the evolution of Alfvenicity and power spectra are largely explained by the shearing of an initial population of solar-generated Alfvenic fluctuations, the evolution of the anisotropies of the turbulence does not fit into the model so far. A two-component model, consisting of slab waves and quasi-two-dimensional fluctuations, offers some ideas, but does not account for the turning of both wave-vector-space power anisotropies and minimum variance directions in the fluctuating vectors as the Parker spiral turns. We will show observations that indicate that the minimum variance evolution is likely not due to traditional turbulence mechanisms, and offer arguments that the idea of two-component turbulence is at best a local approximation that is of little help in explaining the evolution of the fluctuations. Finally, time-permitting, we will discuss some observations that suggest that the low Alfvenicity of many regions of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere is not due to turbulent evolution, but rather to the existence of convected structures, including mini-clouds and other twisted flux tubes, that were formed with low Alfvenicity. There is still a role for turbulence in the above picture, but it is highly modified from the traditional views.

Roberts, Aaron↗

NASA NTRS2007

Non-Random Spatial Distribution of Impacts in the Stardust Cometary Collector

In January 2004, the Stardust spacecraft flew through the coma of comet P81/Wild2 at a relative speed of 6.1 km/sec. Cometary dust was collected at in a 0.1 sq m collector consisting of aerogel tiles and aluminum foils. Two years later, the samples successfully returned to earth and were recovered. We report the discovery that impacts in the Stardust cometary collector are not distributed randomly in the collecting media, but appear to be clustered on scales smaller than approx.10 cm. We also report the discovery of at least two populations of oblique tracks. We evaluated several hypotheses that could explain the observations. No hypothesis was consistent with all the observations, but the preponderance of evidence points toward at least one impact on the central Whipple shield of the spacecraft as the origin of both clustering and low-angle oblique tracks. High-angle oblique tracks unambiguously originate from a noncometary impact on the spacecraft bus just forward of the collector. Here we summarize the observations, and review the evidence for and against three scenarios that we have considered for explaining the impact clustering found on the Stardust aerogel and foil collectors.

Westphal, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Observational Evidence of a Hemispheric-wide Ice-ocean Albedo Feedback Effect on Antarctic Sea-ice Decay

The effect of ice-ocean albedo feedback (a kind of ice-albedo feedback) on sea-ice decay is demonstrated over the Antarctic sea-ice zone from an analysis of satellite-derived hemispheric sea ice concentration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) atmospheric data for the period 1979-2001. Sea ice concentration in December (time of most active melt) correlates better with the meridional component of the wind-forced ice drift (MID) in November (beginning of the melt season) than the MID in December. This 1 month lagged correlation is observed in most of the Antarctic sea-ice covered ocean. Daily time series of ice , concentration show that the ice concentration anomaly increases toward the time of maximum sea-ice melt. These findings can be explained by the following positive feedback effect: once ice concentration decreases (increases) at the beginning of the melt season, solar heating of the upper ocean through the increased (decreased) open water fraction is enhanced (reduced), leading to (suppressing) a further decrease in ice concentration by the oceanic heat. Results obtained fi-om a simple ice-ocean coupled model also support our interpretation of the observational results. This positive feedback mechanism explains in part the large interannual variability of the sea-ice cover in summer.

Nihashi, Sohey↗

NASA NTRS2007

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market]

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

SaintCyr, O. Chris↗

NASA NTRS2004

Dynamics of Unusual Debris Flows on Martian Sand Dunes

Gullies that dissect sand dunes in Russell impact crater often display debris flow-like deposits in their distal reaches. The possible range of both the rheological properties and the flow rates are estimated using a numerical simulation code of a Bingham plastic flow to help explain the formation of these features. Our simulated results are best explained by a rapid debris flow. For example, a debris flow with the viscosity of 10(exp 2) Pa s and the yield strength of 10(exp 2) Pa can form the observed deposits with a flow rate of 0.5 cu m/s sustained over several minutes and total discharged water volume on the order of hundreds of cubic meters, which may be produced by melting a surface layer of interstitial ice within the dune deposits to several centimeters depth.

Miyamoto, Hideaki↗

NASA NTRS1962

Aerodynamic Heating and Deceleration During Entry into Planetary Atmospheres

Dr. Chapman's lecture examines the physics behind spacecraft entry into planetary atmospheres. He explains how scientists determine if a planet has an atmosphere and how scientists can compute deceleration when the atmospheric conditions are unknown. Symbols and equations used for calculations for aerodynamic heating and deceleration are provided. He also explains heat transfer in bodies approaching an atmosphere, deceleration, and the use of ablation in protecting spacecraft from high temperatures during atmospheric entry.

Chapman, Dean R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Spectral Measurements of PMCs from SBUV/2 Instruments

The SBUV/2 (Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet, model 2) instrument is designed to monitor ozone stratospheric profile and total column ozone using measurements of the Earth's backscattered ultraviolet albedo. We have previously demonstrated that the normal radiance measurements from SBUV/2 instruments, which sample 12 discrete wavelengths between 252 and 340 nm during each scan, can be used to identify polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). Some SBUV/2 instruments also periodically view the earth in continuous scan mode, covering the wavelength range 160-400 nm with 0.15 nm sampling. Analysis of these data show PMC occurrence rates similar to the normal discrete scan results, although the observation technique reduces the number of daily measurements by a factor of six. PMC observed by SBUV/2 instruments show a monotonic variation in the residual spectral albedo over the wavelength range 250 300 nm, with maximum enhancements of 10 15% at 250 nm. This result is consistent with microphysical model predictions from Jensen [1989. A numerical model of polar mesospheric cloud formation and evolution, Ph. D. Thesis, University of Colorado]. We find no evidence for a systematic localized increase in PMC residual albedo for wavelengths near 260 nm, in contrast to the recently reported results from the MSX UVISI instrument [Carbary J.F., et al., 2004. Evidence for bimodal particle distribution from the spectra of polar mesospheric clouds. Geophysics Research. Letters 31, L13108]. This result is observed for three different SBUV/2 instruments in both Northern and Southern Hemisphere data over a 13-year span. Our Mie scattering calculations show that the location and magnitude of the 260 nm hump feature is dependent upon the specific scattering angles appropriate to the MSX measurements. Although it explains the MSX spectrum, the bimodal size distribution proposed by Carbary et al. (2004), cannot explain the lack of scattering angle dependence of the SBUV/2 spectral shapes. The spectral signature of the SBUV/2 continuous scan PMC data is thus inconsistent with the bimodal particle size distribution suggested by Carbary et al. (2004).

DeLand, Matthew T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Arylethynyl Substituted 9,lO-Anthraquinones: Tunable Stokes Shifts by Substitution and Solvent Polarity

2-Arylethynyl- and 2,6- and 2,7-diarylethynyl-substituted 9,lO-anthraquinones were synthesized via Sonogashira coupling reactions of 2-bromo-, 2,6-dibromo-, and 2,7-dibromo-9,10- anthraquinone with para-substituted phenylacetylenes. While the redox properties of those compounds are almost insensitive to substitution, their absorption maxima are linearly related to the Hammett constants with different slopes for electron donors and electron acceptors. ABI compounds are photoluminescent both in solution (quantum yields of emission <= 6 %), and as solids. The emission spectra have the characteristics of charge-transfer bands with large Stokes shifts (100-250 nm). The charge-transfer character of the emitting state is supported by large dipole moment differences between the ground and the excited state as concluded on the basis of molecular modeling and Lippert-Mataga correlations of the Stokes shifts with solvent polarity. Maximum Stokes shifts are attained by both electron-donating and -withdrawing groups. This is explained by a destabilization of the HOMO by electron donors and a stabilization of the LUMO by electron acceptors. X-ray crystallographic analysis of, for example, 2,7-bisphenylethynfl- 9,lO-anthraquinone reveals a monoclinic P21In space group and no indication for pi-overlap that would promote quenching, thus explaining emission from the solid state. Representative reduced forms of the title compounds were isolated as stable acetates of the corresponding dihydrs-9,10- anthraquinones. The emission of these compounds is blue-shifted relative to the parent oxidized forms and is attributed to internal transitions in the dihydro-9,lO-anthraquinone core.

Yang, Jinhua↗

NASA NTRS2007

Optimisation of the Future Routine Orbit for Mars Express

Mars Express (MEX), the first planetary mission of the European Space Agency (ESA), reached Mars on December 25th 2003. Since then it is performing routine operations. Its operational phase had to cover one Martian year, with the possibility of an extension for a second Martian year (i.e. until November 2007). The end of the mission extension is approaching but, given the good health of the payload instruments and the high science return of the mission, there is a strong will to achieve further extensions. Mars Express is also seen as an important asset, capable to provide relay functions for future Martian missions. The ESA Science Program Committee has recently approved a second extension of the MEX mission until May 2009 and even further extensions are possible. Mars Express has an eccentric quasi-polar orbit with a period of approximately 6.72 hours and a pericentre height of about 300 km. Science observations are mainly performed at pericentre (but not only). In addition the orbit has a resonance of 11 revolutions per 3 Martian days. This means that ground tracks corresponding to orbits separated by 11 revolutions are adjacent, such that a given area can be covered by the on-board camera without leaving gaps. The J2 effect of Mars causes a drift of both ascending node and argument of pericentre. The drift of argument of pericentre makes it possible to observe periodically all Mars latitudes from close distance. Illumination conditions at pericentre are influenced by both the drift of the argument of pericentre and the drift of ascending node, as well as by the rotation of Mars around the Sun. The original MEX routine orbit was optimized for the duration of the nominal mission and extension, such that it produced a balanced share of day-side observations (for the optical instruments) and night-side observations (for the radar). The orbit was thus not optimized for the time beyond the assumed extension. Indeed, the evolution of the ascending node and argument of pericentre would cause in the following years a drift of the pericentre towards night-side observation conditions, hence uninteresting for the optical instruments. In order to prevent this an optimisation process for the future routine orbit has taken place. The share between day-side and night-side observations can be controlled by adjusting the drift of argument of pericentre and ascending node. This can in particular be achieved by changing the semimajor axis, eccentricity and/or inclination. A change of inclination is inefficient compared to a change in semimajor axis and eccentricity, and has therefore been discarded. An in-plane maneuvre can be performed to change both semi-major axis and eccentricity, and thus the period of the orbit. Although an apocentre manoeuvre is cheaper in terms of deltaV, it would result in raising the pericentre height, which is unfavourable for close observations. Hence a pericentre manoeuvre is proposed, which will increase the apocentre height. A repeat cycle is still required to allow mapping areas with adjacent ground tracks, so the change of semimajor axis must result in a new resonance. Resonances 18:5, 25:7 and 7:2 have been considered as potential candidates. The resulting long term evolution of the observation conditions has been analysed. Finally it has been decided to perform a change of orbit to reach the 18:5. Another aspect of the optimisation process is the control of the ground track. The previous MEX reference trajectory included regular maneuvres at every apocentre in order to adjust the orbital period, such that the separation of the ground tracks would be optimal, regardless of the latitude of pericentre. The implementation of the actual delatVs on-board was done partly by optimizing the attitude of reaction-wheel desaturation activities. Despite of it, this strategy has a significant propellant cost, because it prevents to optimize reaction wheel de-saturation activities to minimize propellant consumption. Therore, with the aim at preserving propellant resources for a long time extension it has been agreed to stop the ground-track control. This requires now a more accurate science operation planning, with improved attitude pointing control. Finally, the approach to phase Mars Express to provide back-up relay functions for NASA Phoenix landing is explained. In the context of the routine trajectory optimisation a new requirement for close fly-bys at Phobos, with different observation geometries, has been specified. The approach to fulfill this requirement is explained.

Carranza, Manuel↗

NASA NTRS2008

Leading Your Leaders

Even though working on a problem has been your primary effort for the past year, your leadership may have heard about this once in a briefing a decade ago. Now they are basically clueless. Pretend that you are talking to your daughter's fifth-grade class. Explain how your complicated gizmo works. If possible, do not use acronyms. Define your terms. Put your work in context. Assume your leader has no idea what you do, who you work for, or what your gizmo does. That is a good place to start. Remember, taking the next century to study the problem or spending the Gross National Product to invent a new solution are probably not going to be acceptable solutions. Real engineers and technicians build real hardware that works in the real world in a reasonable manner within a reasonable time at a reasonable cost. True, skimping on time or money can cause mistakes, but folks whose gizmos are delayed unreasonably or cost more than is practical get their programs canceled, force the business into bankruptcy, or give the market over to the competition. Real engineers and technicians always consider cost and schedule in their work. Raising questions is important. However, we are in the business of doing things. Engineers and technicians are paid to get things done. Yes, you have to identify the problem, frame the design, identify the tests, perform the analysis, and assemble the hardware. But the goal is to solve the problem. Nobody ever said flying in space was easy. We make it look easy the same way that an Olympic champion makes her sport look easy: by working hard at improving performance every day. Better are the results of a well-defined test. Remember that a test on a laboratory bench is always an approximation of reality, and rules similar to those for good analysis also apply. One should always be mindful of Mechelay's rule: "It is better to be stupid than to run a stupid test." Often we try to overtest. If a piece of hardware passes an unbelievably difficult test, then life is good. More often when an unbelievably difficult test fails, we are left with a very long discussion of why and what was wrong in the design or execution of the test. Make sure that the test is well defined. Even then, it is important to explain to your leaders what inherent accuracy (or error) the test conditions or equipment have and what the assumptions or initial conditions were for the test. Test results without a good understanding of the test's accuracy or the pedigree of the test assumptions are worth very little. Finally, there is flight test data. Always limited, never at the edge of the envelope, it still shows how the real hardware works in a combined environment. Flight experience is dangerous because it typically doesn't show how close to the edge of the cliff the equipment is operating, but it does demonstrate how the hardware really works. A flight test is the ultimate test, again taken with the knowledge that it is probably not the extreme but something more like the middle of the environmental and systems performance. Good understanding of a problem and its solution always relies on a combination of all these methods. Be sure to lead your leaders by using all the tools you have at your disposal. At the end of the day, decisions in space flight always come down to a risk trade. Our business is not remotely safe, not in the sense that the public, the media, or our legislators use the term. Everything we do has a risk, cost, schedule, or performance trade-off. For your leaders to make an appropriate decision, you need to educate them, lead them, talk with them, and engage them in the discussion until full understanding takes place. It's your job. *

Hale, Wayne N.↗