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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Groundwater drainage from fissures as a source for lahars

One mechanism for generating lahars at volcanoes experiencing unrest is the disruption of internal aquifers. These disruptions can trigger releases of large quantities of groundwater. An example of such aquifer disruption occurred at Nevado del Huila Volcano, Colombia, during February and April 2007 when large fractures formed across the summit area of the volcano and lahars were emitted from them. Previous work interpreted that lahar volumes could not be accounted for by melted glacial snow or precipitation, and by elimination suggested that the primary water source was groundwater. Conceptual models have been developed for perched, confined aquifers that have been heated and pressurized by magma intrusions, followed by sudden pressure release and water emission during fracture formation. In this paper, we consider an alternative end member wherein water release from large fissures at volcanoes is driven by simple gravity drainage. We apply numerical modeling to quantify water discharge from the porous medium surrounding a fissure with a low-elevation free exit. If a long fracture with high vertical extent (on the order of hundreds of meters) intersects a highly connected saturated porous medium, large volumes (on order 10 3 m 3 /m of crack length) of water may be released within tens of minutes. The drainage rates from the model may be adequate to account for the Nevado del Huila events if the medium surrounding the crack contains a large volume of water and has high horizontal permeability. Finally, this simple but poorly understood mechanism can present a hazard on its own or compound other processes releasing water from volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗

Seismic Tomographic Modeling of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Israel and the Middle East: Improved Resolution through Optimized Model Parameterization

Accurate regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) predictions rely on regional phases (e.g., Pg, Lg, Pn, Sn ) to account for 3D effects in the crust and upper mantle that are not captured by 1D models traditionally used for real-time location. The RSTT prediction model accounts for regional-scale crust and upper mantle structure globally by incorporating regional seismic phases into its travel-time calculations. Previous versions of the RSTT model have used a constant grid cell size of 1°. To improve the tomographic accuracy of recovering velocity structure at regional scales, we, in this study, perform data-driven grid refinement on the RSTT model down to a 0.125° grid (~14 km) in pursuit of two main goals: (1) to test the limits of RSTT capability and accuracy of determined velocity structure through variable grid refinement and (2) to image smaller structures in Israel and the Middle East and illuminate upper mantle dynamics operating in this complex tectonic area. We investigate the effects of model parameterization as grid cell size decreases and the trade-offs between recovered velocity structures. Our final dataset includes 4751 events and 499 stations that recorded 79,344 Pn and 7489 Pg . The variable grid refinement method allows recovery of finer-scale velocity structures and reduces travel-time residuals in areas with the highest data coverage. At smaller grid cell sizes, longer paths need to be upweighted to stabilize the inversion. Results illuminate tectonic features undefined in coarser grid-size models; in particular, we observe mantle perturbations related to the subduction zone around the Cyprian arc and crustal anomalies near the Dead Sea fault and throughout the Anatolian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pulsed Accretion in the T Tauri Binary TWA 3A

TWA 3A is the most recent addition to a small group of young binary systems that both actively accrete from a circumbinary disk and have spectroscopic orbital solutions. As such, it provides a unique opportunity to test binary accretion theory in a well-constrained setting. To examine TWA 3A’s time-variable accretion behavior, we have conducted a two-year, optical photometric monitoring campaign, obtaining dense orbital phase coverage (∼20 observations per orbit) for ∼15 orbital periods. From U -band measurements we derive the time-dependent binary mass accretion rate, finding bursts of accretion near each periastron passage. On average, these enhanced accretion events evolve over orbital phases 0.85 to 1.05, reaching their peak at periastron. The specific accretion rate increases above the quiescent value by a factor of ∼4 on average but the peak can be as high as an order of magnitude in a given orbit. The phase dependence and amplitude of TWA 3A accretion is in good agreement with numerical simulations of binary accretion with similar orbital parameters. In these simulations, periastron accretion bursts are fueled by periodic streams of material from the circumbinary disk that are driven by the binary orbit. We find that TWA 3A’s average accretion behavior is remarkably similar to DQ Tau, another T Tauri binary with similar orbital parameters, but with significantly less variability from orbit to orbit. This is only the second clear case of orbital-phase-dependent accretion in a T Tauri binary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A case study of the response of the magnetosphere to changes in the interplanetary medium

A detailed analysis of world-wide ground based magnetometer data is presented, together with information on the plasma and magnetic field properties of the interplanetary medium and magnetosheath obtained from the ISEE 1 and 2 and IMP 8 spacecraft. The event concerned exhibited an interval of relatively stable southward IMF followed by a sharp northward turning. It is pointed out that during the interval of southward IMF there were occasional transient northward turnings with significant substorm expansive phase activity appearing to be triggered by these transient northward turnings. The final northward turning of the IMF was linked with an episode of strong magnetospheric substorm expansive phase activity after which the level of high latitude magnetic activity declined to a low level. Evidence is presented indicating that the driven system auroral electrojets begin to decay at the time of the northward turning of the IMF, even as the substorm expansive phase activity is initiated in the midnight sector. The collapse of the substorm current wedge during the final decay of high latitude activity is described in some detail, and it is shown that this collapse occurs progressively from east to west in a series of impulsive episodes.

Rostoker, G.↗

Continuous auroral activity related to high speed streams with interplaneraty ALFV&N wave trains

We discuss a type of intense magnetospheric/auroral activity that is not always substorms: High-Intensity, Long-Duration, Continuous AE Activity (HILDCAA) events, which occur during high speed solar wind streams. The high speed streams contain large-amplitude, nonlinear Alfvtn waves. Analyses of POLAR UV images, demonstrate that the AE increases/AL decreases in HILDCAAs are not always substorm expansion phases (although some substorms may occur). The associated auroral W energy deposition is throughout a continuous (360') auroral oval. During some image intervals, the dayside aurora is the most remarkable feature. Our hypothesis is that solar wind energy transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere/ionosphere is primarily directly driven due to the finite wavelength Alfv6n waves and the rapid dBz/dt variability.

magnetospheric↗

Shielding design for a chip irradiation test facility at SNS - Paper 119

As digital and analog circuits are more and more sophisticatedly integrated, they become increasingly susceptible to single event upsets (SEU), a cause of electronic equipment malfunction induced by cosmic rays with particular hazard potential for aviation equipment. Electronic chips sensitive to SEU have to be tested in a simulated comic ray environment to ensure their reliability. It is found that the spallation induced fast neutron spectrum is very close to the neutron spectrum of the cosmic ray. Hence, a conceptual design study of a chip irradiation test facility is funded by FAA to be carried out at SNS, the world's most powerful accelerator driven facility for neutron scattering studies on materials. Compared to existing/being construct chip irradiation test facilities at LANL and ISIS, SNS can provide wider neutron energy range and much higher fluxes. This study focuses on the aspect of shielding design for such a chip irradiation facility. A number of medium-weighted and heavy materials were examined for efficiency in reducing radiation dose rate. In general, the smaller the target monolith is while satisfying the personnel-protection-driven radiation dose rate limit at its outside, the closer to the target chips could be placed and thus less beam power it demands to satisfy a given irradiation flux requirement. Before proceed to the shielding design, the neutron source coming off the target has to be determined for selecting a best spot for chip irradiation test, in which the incoming fast neutron spectrum approximate most to the atmospheric radiation condition. It also provides a source term for the following shielding design of the irradiation enclosure. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Activity-driven structure variations as a cause of period changes in RS Canis Venaticorum-like systems

Magnetic activity cycles of a convective star in a close binary system may lead to orbit period changes through tidal spin-orbit coupling. An increase in the mean magnetic field throughout the convection zone provides an additional pressure support and increases the star's moment of inertia. In order for the system to conserve angular momentum instantaneously, the convective star must reduce its rotation rate. When this happens, the system is no longer synchronous; in particular, the equilibrium tide now suffers a phase lag. A tidal torque must act, transferring angular momentum from the star's rotation to the orbit, lengthening the period. When the field decays, these events reverse and the period shortens. Observed period changes in RS CVn-like systems are of the order delta p/p = 10 to the -6th, implying variations in the mean field strength at the base of the convection zone of approximately 1000 G over time scales of 10-30 yr. It is predicted that the strength of magnetic activity indicators will track orbital period changes in a given system: the period will be largest during the active portion of the magnetic cycle and smallest during the quiescent part.

Van Buren, D.↗

CCE Case Study: Stinky Cheese Company

This document explores how to apply Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) to identify and mitigate catastrophic effects resulting from cyber-enabled sabotage in a case study. For this case study, we will examine a fictional organization named the Stinky Cheese Company.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Electric‐Field‐Driven Reversal of Ferromagnetism in (110)‐Oriented, Single Phase, Multiferroic Co‐Substituted BiFeO 3 Thin Films

Abstract While multiferroic materials are attractive systems for the promise of ultra‐low‐power‐consumption computational technologies, electric‐field‐induced magnetization reversal is a key challenge for realizing devices at scale. Though significant research efforts have been working toward the realization of a material which couples ferroelectricity and ferromagnetism, there are few, even composite, systems which are practical for device scale applications at room temperature. Co‐substituted multiferroic BiFe 0.9 Co 0.1 O 3 is a promising candidate system, due to coupled ferroelectricity and weak ferromagnetism at room temperature. Here, it is theoretically indicated that the ferroic orders in this material are statically coupled, where an in‐plane 109° ferroelectric switching event can result in the reversal of this out‐of‐plane component of magnetization, and the electric field‐induced magnetization reversal is experimentally observed. Such an in‐plane poling configuration is particularly desirable for device applications.

Chemistry↗

Ocean circulation and climate variability in the northern South China Sea during the Greek Minimum derived from coral Δ 14 C and Sr/Ca records

Ocean circulation transports heat, salt and nutrients, and has profound impacts on the marine environment and climate change. However, the seasonal to centennial variations of the paleocirculation of the South China Sea (SCS) and their driving forces are still unclear due to limited records. Here we reconstructed a high-resolution Δ 14 C record of a coral from Sanya to investigate the seasonal variations of the SCS ocean circulation around 2300 cal yr BP during a grand solar minimum (GSM) period. The seasonal Δ 14 C variability shows the influence of coastal upwelling caused by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in summer and the effect of water intrusion from the western Pacific Ocean driven by the Kuroshio Intrusion (KI) in winter. Here we compiled the marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔR) records since 2500 cal yr BP, which indicate a gradual decrease of upwelling significantly correlated with the EASM. Comparisons with other climate records suggest that both the EASM and KI may regulate the ocean circulation variability on centennial time scales. As a good index of the sea surface temperature (SST), our Sr/Ca record and spectral analysis results show a low temperature and a low frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events around 2300 cal yr BP. Moreover, the composite coral Sr/Ca-SST and ENSO index records since 2500 cal yr BP show relatively low SST and weak ENSO during GSMs, supporting the modulation of tropical SST and ENSO by solar activity. Our study has provided high-resolution proxy data and revealed the driving forces of ocean circulation and climate change in the SCS at multiple time scales, which should be considered in further modeling work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Intense Arctic Storm in Accelerating Summer Sea Ice Melt: An In Situ Observational Study

Abstract Intense storms have been more frequently observed in the Arctic during recent years, in coincidence with extreme sea ice loss events. However, it is still not fully understood how storms drive such events due to deficient observations and modeling discrepancies. Here we address this problem by analyzing in situ observations acquired during an Arctic expedition, which uniquely captured an intense storm in summer 2016. The result shows a pronounced acceleration of sea ice loss during the storm process. Diagnostic analysis indicates a net energy loss at the ice surface, not supporting the accelerated melting. Although the open water surface gained net heat energy, it was insufficient to increase the mixed‐layer temperature to the observed values. Dynamic analysis suggests that storm‐driven increase in ocean mixing and upward Ekman pumping of the Pacific‐origin warm water tremendously increased oceanic heat flux. The thermal advection by the Ekman pumping led to a warmed mixed layer by 0.05°C–0.12°C and, in consequence, an increased basal sea ice melt rate by 0.1–1.7 cm day −1 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Broadband quadrature-squeezed vacuum and nonclassical photon number correlations from a nanophotonic device

We report demonstrations of both quadrature-squeezed vacuum and photon number difference squeezing generated in an integrated nanophotonic device. Squeezed light is generated via strongly driven spontaneous four-wave mixing below threshold in silicon nitride microring resonators. The generated light is characterized with both homodyne detection and direct measurements of photon statistics using photon number–resolving transition-edge sensors. We measure 1.0(1) decibels of broadband quadrature squeezing (~4 decibels inferred on-chip) and 1.5(3) decibels of photon number difference squeezing (~7 decibels inferred on-chip). Nearly single temporal mode operation is achieved, with measured raw unheralded second-order correlations g (2) as high as 1.95(1). Multiphoton events of over 10 photons are directly detected with rates exceeding any previous quantum optical demonstration using integrated nanophotonics. These results will have an enabling impact on scaling continuous variable quantum technology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Unsupervised acoustic detection of fatigue-induced damage modes from wind turbine blades

This paper proposes a new in-situ damage detection approach for wind turbine blades, which leverages blade-internal non-stationary acoustic pressure fluctuations caused by the mechanical loading as the main source of excitation. This acoustic excitation was leveraged for the detection of fatigue-related damage modes on a full-scale wind turbine blade undergoing edgewise fatigue testing. An unsupervised, data-driven structural health monitoring strategy was developed to learn the normal cavity-internal acoustic sequences generated by the blade’s load cycles and to detect damage-related anomalies in the context of those sequences. A linear cepstral-coefficient based feature set was used to characterize the cavity-internal acoustics and LSTM-autoencoders were trained to accurately reconstruct healthy-case sequences. The reconstruction error was then used to characterize anomalous acoustic patterns within the blade cavity. The technique was able to detect a damage event earlier than a strain-based system by 120,000 load cycles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Discovery of Signatures, Anomalies, and Precursors in Synchrophasor Data with Matrix Profile and Deep Recurrent Neural Networks (Final Project Report)

The widespread deployment of phasor measurement unit (PMU) across the U.S. together with the burgeoning machine learning technology made it possible to develop data-driven PMU data analytics to improve grid security and reliability in a more insightful and effective manner. Although PMU applications have been explored for over a decade, the representative PMU usage is limited to the bulk power system monitoring mainly due to the data integrity issues associated with PMUs (typically missing, fragmented, and wrongly amplified data). To forge a breakthrough on this stalemate and embrace PMUs for power system control and protection as well, we applied various advanced machine learning and big data analysis technology to the power system event detection and classification as the first step toward the power system control and protection pertaining to grid security enhancement.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Make the Most Out of Genome Announcements with KBase

Genomics is a dynamic field driven by new technology, massive growth in data, and changes in how scientists share knowledge. This brings new challenges for researchers looking to maximize the impact of their science and ensure the longevity of their data. These changes are especially relevant for the practice of publishing genome announcements. Genome announcements are meant to share and promote newly sequenced organisms with the larger scientific community. A few decades ago, genome announcements were highly anticipated hallmarks of novel science. But, what was once a publishing coup is now an every day event. It is harder and harder to keep abreast of all the genomes that have been sequenced and promote your own new genomes to get the attention and recognition of your research community. Fortunately, KBase can help construct genomes from your sequencing data, generate reports for your announcement, and promote your data to your research community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗