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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search: an efficient and versatile quantum phase estimation method

Quantum phase estimation is one of the most powerful quantum primitives. This work proposes a new approach for the problem of multiple eigenvalue estimation: Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search (QMEGS). QMEGS leverages the Hadamard test circuit structure and only requires simple classical postprocessing. QMEGS is the first algorithm to simultaneously satisfy the following two properties: (1) It can achieve the Heisenberg-limited scaling without relying on any spectral gap assumption. (2) With a positive energy gap and additional assumptions on the initial state, QMEGS can estimate all dominant eigenvalues to ϵ accuracy utilizing a significantly reduced circuit depth compared to the standard quantum phase estimation algorithm. In the most favorable scenario, the maximal runtime can be reduced to as low as log(1/ϵ). This implies that QMEGS serves as an efficient and versatile approach, achieving the best-known results for both gapped and gapless systems. Numerical results validate the efficiency of our proposed algorithm in various regimes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating vehicle fuel economy from overhead camera imagery and application for traffic control

In this work, we explore the ability to estimate vehicle fuel consumption using imagery from overhead fisheye lens cameras deployed as traffic sensors. We utilize this information to simulate vision-based control of a traffic intersection, with a goal of improving fuel economy with minimal impact to mobility. We introduce the ORNL Overhead Vehicle Dataset (OOVD), consisting of a data set of paired, labeled vehicle images from a ground-based camera and an overhead fisheye lens traffic camera. The data set includes segmentation masks based on Gaussian mixture models for vehicle detection. We show the dataset utility through three applications: the estimate of fuel consumption based on segmentation bounding boxes, vehicle discrimination for those vehicles with largest bounding boxes, and a fine-grained classification on a limited number of vehicle makes and models using a pre-trained set of convolutional neural network models. We compare these results with estimates based on a large open-source data set based on web-scraped imagery. Finally, we show the utility of the approach using reinforcement learning in a traffic simulator using the open source Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO) package. Our results show the feasibility of the approach for controlling traffic lights for better fuel efficiency based solely on visual vehicle estimates from commercial, fisheye lens cameras.

Karnowski, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2019

Temporal Coherence Importance Sampling for Wind Turbine Extreme Loads Estimation

Estimating long return period extreme wind turbine loads is made especially difficult by the large response variability for 'the same' environmental conditions. To alleviate this, we have 'opened up the black box' of the turbulent wind generation stage of the simulations. Exploiting the notion of 'temporal coherence' allows us to manipulate the turbulent inflow to target extreme wind conditions, while at the same time quantifying 'how probable these are.' The resulting importance sampling load estimates achieve a significantly lower exceedance probability (i.e., they represent much longer return periods) than estimates using the same number of samples (i.e., the same computational resources) but only a standard Monte Carlo estimate.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Different methods of estimating riverbed sediment grain size diverge at the basin scale

Introduction: The distribution of sediment grain size in streams and rivers is often quantified by the median grain size (D50), a key metric for understanding and predicting hydrologic and biogeochemical function of streams and rivers. Manual D50 measurements are time-consuming and ignore larger grains, while approaches to model D50 based on catchment characteristics may over-generalize and miss site-scale heterogeneity. Machine learning-enabled object detection methods like You Only Look Once (YOLO) provides an alternative that enables estimation of D50 that is faster than manual measurements and more site-specific than predictions based on catchment characteristics. Methods: To understand the potential role of object detection methods for improving understanding of D50, we compared D50 estimates made manually, predicted from catchment characteristics, and using a YOLO-enabled approach across the Yakima River Basin. Results: We found distinct differences between methods for D50 averages and variability, and relationships between D50 estimates and basin characteristics. Discussion: We discuss the advantages and limitations of object detection methods versus current methods, and explore potential future directions to combine D50 methods to better estimate spatiotemporal variation of D50, and improve incorporation into basin-scale models.

grain size distribution↗
DOE OSTI2019

Convergence Rates for Empirical Estimation of Binary Classification Bounds

Bounding the best achievable error probability for binary classification problems is relevant to many applications including machine learning, signal processing, and information theory. Many bounds on the Bayes binary classification error rate depend on information divergences between the pair of class distributions. Recently, the Henze–Penrose (HP) divergence has been proposed for bounding classification error probability. We consider the problem of empirically estimating the HP-divergence from random samples. We derive a bound on the convergence rate for the Friedman–Rafsky (FR) estimator of the HP-divergence, which is related to a multivariate runs statistic for testing between two distributions. The FR estimator is derived from a multicolored Euclidean minimal spanning tree (MST) that spans the merged samples. We obtain a concentration inequality for the Friedman–Rafsky estimator of the Henze–Penrose divergence. We validate our results experimentally and illustrate their application to real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

A MODIS Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) as an Estimator of Isoprene Emissions in a Temperate Deciduous Forest

The quantification of isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the ecosystem level with available models and field measurements is not entirely satisfactory. Remote-sensing techniques can extend the spatial and temporal assessment of isoprenoid fluxes. Detecting the exchange of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) using these techniques is, however, a very challenging goal. Recent evidence suggests that a simple remotely sensed index, the photochemical reflectance index (PRI), which is indicative of light-use efficiency, relative pigment levels and excess reducing power, is a good indirect estimator of foliar isoprenoid emissions. We tested the ability of PRI to assess isoprenoid fluxes in a temperate deciduous forest in central USA throughout the entire growing season and under moderate and extreme drought conditions. We then compared PRI time series calculated with MODIS bands to isoprene emissions measured with eddy covariance. MODIS PRI was correlated with isoprene emissions for most of the season, until emissions peaked. MODIS PRI was also able to detect the timing of the annual peak of emissions, even when it was advanced in response to drought conditions. PRI is thus a promising index to estimate isoprene emissions when it is complemented by information on potential emission. It may also be used to further improve models of isoprene emission under drought and other stress conditions. Direct estimation of isoprene emission by PRI is, however, limited, because PRI estimates LUE, and the relationship between LUE and isoprene emissions can be modified by severe stress conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of Corn Latent Heat Flux from High Resolution Thermal Imagery

Crop evapotranspiration (ET), which is directly related to latent heat flux, is also a key indicator in determining the water status of crops. In order to estimate the latent heat flux, two-source energy balance (TSEB) models have been developed for thermal imagery from satellite platforms. However, because of the coarse resolution of thermal sensors on the satellite, distinguishing soil and vegetation is difficult which complicates the calculation process and introduces errors in latent heat estimates. In this research, high-resolution thermal datasets (0.05 m) and corresponding RGB datasets (0.03 m) were used for calculating crop latent heat flux using an adapted TSEB model. The RGB datasets were used for supervised classification of soil and vegetation, and the classification results were then used to filter the thermal mosaics to separate vegetation and soil temperatures. The vegetation temperature is used for calculating latent heat flux and the results are validated against the ground reference measurements of latent heat using a handheld porometer. The objective of this research is to introduce a workflow including an adapted TSEB model which is customized for high resolution thermal images from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to estimate the latent heat flux of row crops in agricultural fields. Nine dates of data collection in 2018 and 2020 have been evaluated and the root mean square error (RMSE) varies between 16 to 106 W/m2 depending on the days after planting (DAP) and the time of measurement for each day. The results indicate that the workflow introduced here is able to provide estimates of instantaneous latent heat flux (evapotranspiration) measurements for row crops in agricultural fields which will enable people to make reliable decisions related to irrigation scheduling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A First Estimation of County-Based Green Water Availability and Its Implications for Agriculture and Bioenergy Production in the United States

Green water is vital for the terrestrial ecosystem, but water resource assessment often focuses on blue water. In this study, we estimated green water availability for major crops (i.e., corn, soybean, and wheat) and all other users(e.g., forest, grassland, and ecosystem services) at the county level in the United States. We estimated green water resources from effective rain(ER) using three different methods: Smith, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Soil Conservation Service (USDA-SCS), and the NHD plus V2 dataset. The analysis illustrates that, if green water meets all crop water demands, the fraction of green water resources available to all other users varies significantly across regions, from the Northern Plains (0.71) to the Southeast (0.98). At the county level, this fraction varies from 0.23 to 1.0. Green water resources estimated using the three different ER methods present diverse spatiotemporal distribution patterns across regions, which could affect green water availability estimates. The water availability index for green water (WAI_R) was measured taking into account crop water demand and green water resources aggregated at the county level. Beyond these parameters, WAI_R also depends on the precipitation pattern, crop type and spatially differentiated regions. In addition, seasonal analysis indicated that WAI_R is sensitive to the temporal boundary of the analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Non-Stationarity on Intensity-Duration-Frequency Estimates—A Case Study in a Mountainous California-Nevada Watershed

Changes in extreme precipitation events may require revisions of civil engineering standards to prevent water infrastructures from performing below the designated guidelines. Climate change may invalidate the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) computation that is based on the assumption of data stationarity. Efforts in evaluating non-stationarity in the annual maxima series are inadequate, mostly due to the lack of long data records and convenient methods for detecting trends in the higher moments. In this study, using downscaled high resolution climate simulations of the historical and future periods under different carbon emission scenarios, we tested two solutions to obtain reliable IDFs under non-stationarity: (1) identify quasi-stationary time windows from the time series of interest to compute the IDF curves using data for the corresponding time windows; (2) introduce a parameter representing the trend in the means of the extreme value distributions. Focusing on a mountainous site, the Walker Watershed, the spatial heterogeneity and variability of IDFs or extremes are evaluated, particularly in terms of the terrain and elevation impacts. We compared observations-based IDFs that use the stationarity assumption with the two approaches that consider non-stationarity. The IDFs directly estimated based on the traditional stationarity assumption may underestimate the 100-year 24-h events by 10% to 60% towards the end of the century at most grids, resulting in significant under-designing of the engineering infrastructure at the study site. Strong spatial heterogeneity and variability in the IDF estimates suggest a preference for using high resolution simulation data for the reliable estimation of exceedance probability over data from sparsely distributed weather stations. Discrepancies among the three IDFs analyses due to non-stationarity are comparable to the spatial variability of the IDFs, underscoring a need to use an ensemble of non-stationary approaches to achieve unbiased and comprehensive IDF estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inception Based Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Turbofan Engines

Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) is a key component of condition based maintenance (CBM) and prognosis and health management (PHM). Data-based models for the estimation of RUL are of particular interest because expert knowledge of systems is not always available and physical modeling is often not feasible. In this paper, a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture is investigated for its ability to estimate the RUL of turbofan engines. The input to the model is a window of time series data collected from the engine under test. Inputting raw sensor data allows features to be learned instead of manually determined. To incorporate the ability to detect features of differing lengths, inception modules are used in the neural network architecture. The model is trained and tested using the new Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (N-CMAPSS) data set and high prognosis accuracy was achieved. The developed model was used in the 2021 PHM Society Data Challenge and received second place, further validating its ability to accurately estimate RUL.

DeVol, Nathaniel↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dynamical estimate of post-main-sequence stellar masses in 47 Tucanae

We use the effects of mass segregation on the radial distribution of different stellar populations in the core of 47 Tucanae to find estimates for the masses of stars at different post-main-sequence evolutionary stages. We take samples of main-sequence (MS) stars from the core of 47 Tucanae, at different magnitudes (i.e., different masses), and use the effects of this dynamical process to develop a relation between the radial distance (RD) at which the cumulative distribution reaches the 20th and 50th percentile and stellar mass. From these relations we estimate the masses of different post-MS populations. We find that mass remains constant for stars going through the evolutionary stages from the upper MS up to the horizontal branch (HB). By comparing RDs of the HB stars with stars of lower masses, we can exclude a mass loss greater than 0.09 M{sub ⊙} during the red giant branch (RGB) stage at nearly the 3σ level. The slightly higher mass estimates for the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) are consistent with the AGB having evolved from somewhat more massive stars. The AGB also exhibits evidence of contamination by more massive stars, possibly blue straggler stars (BSSs), going through the RGB phase. We do not include the BSSs in this paper due to the complexity of these objects; instead, the complete analysis of this population is left for a companion paper. The process to estimate the masses described in this paper is exclusive to the core of 47 Tuc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Estimation of mass of compact object in H 1743-322 from 2010 and 2011 outbursts using TCAF solution and spectral index–QPO frequency correlation

The well-known black hole candidate (BHC) H 1743-322 exhibited temporal and spectral variabilities during several outbursts. The variation of the accretion rates and flow geometry that change on a daily basis during each of the outbursts can be very well understood using the recent implementation of the two-component advective flow solution of the viscous transonic flow equations as an additive table model in XSPEC. This has dramatically improved our understanding of accretion flow dynamics. Most interestingly, the solution allows us to treat the mass of the BHC as a free parameter and its mass could be estimated from spectral fits. In this paper, we fitted the data of two successive outbursts of H 1743-322 in 2010 and 2011 and studied the evolution of accretion flow parameters, such as two-component (Keplerian and sub-Keplerian) accretion rates, shock location (i.e., size of the Compton cloud), etc. We assume that the model normalization remains the same across the states in both these outbursts. We used this to estimate the mass of the black hole and found that it comes out in the range of 9.25--12.86 M{sub ⊙}. For the sake of comparison, we also estimated mass using the Photon index versus Quasi Periodic Oscillation frequency correlation method, which turns out to be 11.65±0.67 M{sub ⊙} using GRO J1655-40 as a reference source. Combining these two estimates, the most probable mass of the compact object becomes 11.21{sub −1.96}{sup +1.65} M{sub ⊙}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian mass estimates of the milky way: including measurement uncertainties with hierarchical bayes

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the total mass and mass profile of the Milky Way Galaxy. The new hierarchical Bayesian approach further improves the framework presented by Eadie et al. and Eadie and Harris and builds upon the preliminary reports by Eadie et al. The method uses a distribution function f(E,L) to model the Galaxy and kinematic data from satellite objects, such as globular clusters (GCs), to trace the Galaxy’s gravitational potential. A major advantage of the method is that it not only includes complete and incomplete data simultaneously in the analysis, but also incorporates measurement uncertainties in a coherent and meaningful way. We first test the hierarchical Bayesian framework, which includes measurement uncertainties, using the same data and power-law model assumed in Eadie and Harris and find the results are similar but more strongly constrained. Next, we take advantage of the new statistical framework and incorporate all possible GC data, finding a cumulative mass profile with Bayesian credible regions. This profile implies a mass within 125 kpc of 4.8×10{sup 11}M{sub ⊙} with a 95% Bayesian credible region of (4.0--5.8)×10{sup 11}M{sub ⊙}. Our results also provide estimates of the true specific energies of all the GCs. By comparing these estimated energies to the measured energies of GCs with complete velocity measurements, we observe that (the few) remote tracers with complete measurements may play a large role in determining a total mass estimate of the Galaxy. Thus, our study stresses the need for more remote tracers with complete velocity measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXV. DR2 Broad-line-based Black Hole Mass Estimates and Biases from Obscuration

We present measurements of broad emission lines and virial estimates of supermassive black hole masses (M BH ) for a large sample of ultrahard X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) as part of the second data release of the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey (BASS/DR2). Our catalog includes M BH estimates for a total of 689 AGNs, determined from the Hα, Hβ, Mg II λ2798, and/or C IV λ1549 broad emission lines. The core sample includes a total of 512 AGNs drawn from the 70 month Swift/BAT all-sky catalog. We also provide measurements for 177 additional AGNs that are drawn from deeper Swift/BAT survey data. We study the links between M BH estimates and line-of-sight obscuration measured from X-ray spectral analysis. We find that broad Hα emission lines in obscured AGNs ($\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\gt 22.0$) are on average a factor of ${8.0}_{-2.4}^{+4.1}$ weaker relative to ultrahard X-ray emission and about ${35}_{-12}^{\,+7}$% narrower than those in unobscured sources (i.e., $\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\lt 21.5$). This indicates that the innermost part of the broad-line region is preferentially absorbed. Consequently, current single-epoch M BH prescriptions result in severely underestimated (>1 dex) masses for Type 1.9 sources (AGNs with broad Hα but no broad Hβ) and/or sources with $\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\gtrsim 22.0$. We provide simple multiplicative corrections for the observed luminosity and width of the broad Hα component (L[bHα] and FWHM[bHα]) in such sources to account for this effect and to (partially) remedy M BH estimates for Type 1.9 objects. As a key ingredient of BASS/DR2, our work provides the community with the data needed to further study powerful AGNs in the low-redshift universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainties in Parameters Estimated with Neural Networks: Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

In Hezaveh et al. (2017) we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for obtaining the uncertainties of these parameters. We review the framework of variational inference to obtain approximate posteriors of Bayesian neural networks and apply it to a network trained to estimate the parameters of the Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid plus external shear and total flux magnification. We show that the method can capture the uncertainties due to different levels of noise in the input data, as well as training and architecture-related errors made by the network. To evaluate the accuracy of the resulting uncertainties, we calculate the coverage probabilities of marginalized distributions for each lensing parameter. By tuning a single hyperparameter, the dropout rate, we obtain coverage probabilities approximately equal to the confidence levels for which they were calculated, resulting in accurate and precise uncertainty estimates. Our results suggest that neural networks can be a fast alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chains for parameter uncertainty estimation in many practical applications, allowing more than seven orders of magnitude improvement in speed.

Perreault Levasseur, Laurence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Photometric Redshift Estimates with Training Sample Augmentation

Abstract Large imaging surveys will rely on photometric redshifts (photo- z 's), which are typically estimated through machine-learning methods. Currently planned spectroscopic surveys will not be deep enough to produce a representative training sample for Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), so we seek methods to improve the photo- z estimates that arise from nonrepresentative training samples. Spectroscopic training samples for photo- z 's are biased toward redder, brighter galaxies, which also tend to be at lower redshift than the typical galaxy observed by LSST, leading to poor photo- z estimates with outlier fractions nearly 4 times larger than for a representative training sample. In this Letter, we apply the concept of training sample augmentation, where we augment simulated nonrepresentative training samples with simulated galaxies possessing otherwise unrepresented features. When we select simulated galaxies with ( g - z ) color, i -band magnitude, and redshift outside the range of the original training sample, we are able to reduce the outlier fraction of the photo- z estimates for simulated LSST data by nearly 50% and the normalized median absolute deviation (NMAD) by 56%. When compared to a fully representative training sample, augmentation can recover nearly 70% of the degradation in the outlier fraction and 80% of the degradation in NMAD. Training sample augmentation is a simple and effective way to improve training samples for photo- z 's without requiring additional spectroscopic samples.

Moskowitz, Irene (ORCID:0000000222068589)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation and uncertainty quantification for the output from quantum simulators

The problem of estimating certain distributions over {0, 1} d is considered here. The distribution represents a quantum system of d qubits, where there are non-trivial dependencies between the qubits. A maximum entropy approach is adopted to reconstruct the distribution from exact moments or observed empirical moments. The Robbins Monro algorithm is used to solve the intractable maximum entropy problem, by constructing an unbiased estimator of the un-normalized target with a sequential Monte Carlo sampler at each iteration. In the case of empirical moments, this coincides with a maximum likelihood estimator. A Bayesian formulation is also considered in order to quantify uncertainty a posteriori. Several approaches are proposed in order to tackle this challenging problem, according to recently developed methodologies. In particular, unbiased estimators of the gradient of the log posterior are constructed and used within a provably convergent Langevin-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The methods are illustrated on classically simulated output from quantum simulators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗