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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

An analysis of aircrew procedural compliance

This research examines the relationships between aircrew compliance with procedures and operator errors. The data for this analysis were generated by reexamination of a 1976 experiment in full mission simulation conducted by Dr. H. P. Ruffell Smith (1979) for the NASA-Ames Research Center. The character of individual operators, the chemistry of crew composition, and complex aspects of the operational environment affected procedural compliance by crew members. Associations between enumerated operator errors and several objective indicators of crew coordination were investigated. The correspondence among high operator error counts and infrequent compliance with specific crew coordination requirements was most notable when copilots were accountable for control of flight parameters.

Schofield, J. E.↗

Numerical study of the effect of normalised window size, sampling frequency, and noise level on short time Fourier transform analysis

Photonic Doppler velocimetry, also known as heterodyne velocimetry, is a widely used optical technique that requires the analysis of frequency modulated signals. This paper describes an investigation into the errors of short time Fourier transform analysis. The number of variables requiring investigation was reduced by means of an equivalence principle. Error predictions, as the number of cycles, samples per cycle, noise level, and window type were varied, are presented. The results were found to be in good agreement with analytical models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Analyzing human errors in flight mission operations

A long-term program is in progress at JPL to reduce cost and risk of flight mission operations through a defect prevention/error management program. The main thrust of this program is to create an environment in which the performance of the total system, both the human operator and the computer system, is optimized. To this end, 1580 Incident Surprise Anomaly reports (ISA's) from 1977-1991 were analyzed from the Voyager and Magellan projects. A Pareto analysis revealed that 38 percent of the errors were classified as human errors. A preliminary cluster analysis based on the Magellan human errors (204 ISA's) is presented here. The resulting clusters described the underlying relationships among the ISA's. Initial models of human error in flight mission operations are presented. Next, the Voyager ISA's will be scored and included in the analysis. Eventually, these relationships will be used to derive a theoretically motivated and empirically validated model of human error in flight mission operations. Ultimately, this analysis will be used to make continuous process improvements continuous process improvements to end-user applications and training requirements. This Total Quality Management approach will enable the management and prevention of errors in the future.

Bruno, Kristin J.↗

Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

error of commission↗

Use of Existing CAD Models for Radiation Shielding Analysis

The utility of a radiation exposure analysis depends not only on the accuracy of the underlying particle transport code, but also on the accuracy of the geometric representations of both the vehicle used as radiation shielding mass and the phantom representation of the human form. The current NASA/Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) process to determine crew radiation exposure in a vehicle design incorporates both output from an analytic High Z and Energy Particle Transport (HZETRN) code and the properties (i.e., material thicknesses) of a previously processed drawing. This geometry pre-process can be time-consuming, and the results are less accurate than those determined using a Monte Carlo-based particle transport code. The current work aims to improve this process. Although several Monte Carlo programs (FLUKA, Geant4) are readily available, most use an internal geometry engine. The lack of an interface with the standard CAD formats used by the vehicle designers limits the ability of the user to communicate complex geometries. Translation of native CAD drawings into a format readable by these transport programs is time consuming and prone to error. The Direct Accelerated Geometry -United (DAGU) project is intended to provide an interface between the native vehicle or phantom CAD geometry and multiple particle transport codes to minimize problem setup, computing time and analysis error.

Lee, K. T.↗

Economic Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems Incorporating Uncertain Battery Model

A high-fidelity battery model is essential for precise economic analysis of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), but these models are computationally intensive. Heuristic models offer computational efficiency but compromise the accuracy of economic analysis results. We assess the impact of errors in heuristic battery models on economic analysis by utilizing open-circuit voltage (OCV) measurements from battery experiments.

Choi, Hyungjin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗

Bit Error Rate and Frame Error Rate Data Processing for Space Communications and Navigation-Related Communication System Analysis Tools

One of the capabilities that the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Strategic Center for Networking, Integration, and Communications (SCENIC) user interface (UI) web application intends to provide its users is the addition of network protocol and link encryption augmentations of communication system analyses. Before any of these analyses capabilities can be modeled, the simulations of bit error rate (BER) and frame error rate (FER) against signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) have been conducted, requiring parameters from several known coding types (low-density parity-check (LDPC), convolutional, etc.), signal modulations (binary phase shift keying (BPSK), quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK), etc.), coding rates (1/2, 1/3, etc.), and frame sizes (1,280, 3,580, etc.). However, in order to extract useful information from the results of these simulations, a curve fitting technique has been applied to each resulting dataset to extend and extrapolate the curve fit of BER and FER down to 10–30 using MATLAB® Curve Fitting Toolbox™ (The MathWorks, Inc.). This is a necessary step because simulations of BER and FER were only performed to around 10–9 due to the extensive simulation time that would be required to obtain significant simulation results at the error levels desired. Furthermore, the fitted curve results were applied to a finer resolution for the SNR at 0.01-dB interval instead of the 0.05-dB interval limitation used in the simulation. All the possible combinations of the coding types, signal modulations, coding rates, frame sizes, and the extension of BER and FER curves would enable users to capture a wide range of link performances that directly relates to the addition of higher level networking data encapsulated in a frame. The curve fitting results also led to the modeling of the optical link error rate performance by solving for coding gain, FER_BER SNR delta, coded optical BER-SNR, and coded optical FER–SNR.

Communication link analysis↗

Assimilation of SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations in the GEOS Land–Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

Errors in soil moisture adversely impact the modeling of land–atmosphere water and energy fluxes and, consequently, near-surface atmospheric conditions in atmospheric data assimilation systems (ADAS). To mitigate such errors, a land surface analysis is included in many such systems, although not yet in the currently operational NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ADAS. This article investigates the assimilation of L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission in the GEOS weakly coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation system (LADAS) during boreal summer 2017. The SMAP Tb analysis improves the correlation of LADAS surface and root-zone soil moisture versus in situ measurements by ∼0.1–0.26 over that of ADAS estimates; the unbiased root-mean-square error of LADAS soil moisture is reduced by 0.002–0.008 m^3 /m^3 from that of ADAS. Furthermore, the global land average RMSE versus in situ measurements of screen-level air specific humidity (q2m) and daily maximum temperature (T2m_max ) is reduced by 0.05 g/kg and 0.04 K, respectively, for LADAS compared to ADAS estimates. Regionally, the RMSE of LADAS q2m and T2m_max is improved by up to 0.4 g/kg and 0.3 K, respectively. Improvement in LADAS specific humidity extends into the lower troposphere (below ∼700 mb), with relative improvements in bias of 15–25%, although LADAS air temperature bias slightly increases relative to that of ADAS. Finally, the root mean square of the LADAS Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals is smaller by up to ∼0.1 K than in a land-only assimilation system, corroborating the positive impact of the Tb analysis on the modeled land–atmosphere coupling.

microwave remote sensing↗

Criterion validity of wrist accelerometry for assessing energy intake via the intake-balance technique

Background: Intake-balance assessments measure energy intake (EI) by summing energy expenditure (EE) with concurrent change in energy storage (ΔES). Prior work has not examined the validity of such calculations when EE is estimated via open-source techniques for research-grade accelerometry devices. The purpose of this study was to test the criterion validity of accelerometry-based intake-balance methods for a wrist-worn ActiGraph device. Methods: Healthy adults (n = 24) completed two 14-day measurement periods while wearing an ActiGraph accelerometer on the non-dominant wrist. During each period, criterion values of EI were determined based on ΔES measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry and EE measured by doubly labeled water. A total of 11 prediction methods were tested, 8 derived from the accelerometer and 3 from non-accelerometry methods (e.g., diet recall; included for comparison). Group-level validity was assessed through mean bias, while individual-level validity was assessed through mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and Bland–Altman analysis. Results: Mean bias for the three best accelerometry-based methods ranged from -167 to 124 kcal/day, versus -104 to 134 kcal/day for the non-accelerometry-based methods. The same three accelerometry-based methods had mean absolute error of 323–362 kcal/day and mean absolute percentage error of 18.1-19.3%, versus 353–464 kcal/day and 19.5-24.4% for the non-accelerometry-based methods. All 11 methods demonstrated systematic bias in the Bland–Altman analysis. Conclusions: Accelerometry-based intake-balance methods have promise for advancing EI assessment, but ongoing refinement is necessary. We provide an R package to facilitate implementation and refinement of accelerometry-based methods in future research (see paulhibbing.com/IntakeBalance).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Legendre spectral quadrature tau method for the multi-term time-fractional diffusion equations

In this study, a Legendre spectral tau method is revisited to handle the multi-term time-fractional diffusion equations (MTT-FDEs). An error estimate and rigorous convergence analysis are carried out using some critical theorems. The applicability and accuracy of the solution method are demonstrated by a numerical example to verify the theoretical analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-based statistical learning approach to mesoscopic model selection

In materials science and many other research areas, models are frequently inferred without considering their generalization to unseen data. Here, we apply statistical learning using cross-validation to obtain an optimally predictive coarse-grained description of a two-dimensional kinetic nearest-neighbor Ising model with Glauber dynamics (GD) based on the stochastic Ginzburg-Landau equation (sGLE). The latter is learned from GD “training” data using a log-likelihood analysis, and its predictive ability for various complexities of the model is tested on GD “test” data independent of the data used to train the model on. Using two different error metrics, we perform a detailed analysis of the error between magnetization time trajectories simulated using the learned sGLE coarse-grained description and those obtained using the GD model. We show that both for equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium GD training trajectories, the standard phenomenological description using a quartic free energy does not always yield the most predictive coarse-grained model. Moreover, increasing the amount of training data can shift the optimal model complexity to higher values. Our results are promising in that they pave the way for the use of statistical learning as a general tool for materials modeling and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Prospects for Measuring Abundances of >20 Elements with Low-resolution Stellar Spectra

Understanding the evolution of the Milky Way calls for the precise abundance determination of many elements in many stars. A common perception is that deriving more than a few elemental abundances ([Fe/H], [ α /Fe], perhaps [C/H], [N/H]) requires medium-to-high spectral resolution, R ≳ 10,000, mostly to overcome the effects of line blending. In a recent work, we presented an efficient and practical way to model the full stellar spectrum, even when fitting a large number of stellar labels simultaneously. In this paper, we quantify to what precision the abundances of many different elements can be recovered, as a function of spectroscopic resolution and wavelength range. In the limit of perfect spectral models and spectral normalization, we show that the precision of elemental abundances is nearly independent of resolution, for a fixed exposure time and number of detector pixels; low-resolution spectra simply afford much higher S/N per pixel and generally larger wavelength range in a single setting. We also show that estimates of most stellar labels are not strongly correlated with one another once R ≳ 1000. Modest errors in the line-spread function, as well as small radial velocity errors, do not affect these conclusions, and data-driven models indicate that spectral (continuum) normalization can be achieved well enough in practice. These results, to be confirmed with an analysis of observed low-resolution data, open up new possibilities for the design of large spectroscopic stellar surveys and for the reanalysis of archival low-resolution data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Proton upsets in LSI memories in space

Two types of large scale integrated dynamic random access memory devices were tested and found to be subject to soft errors when exposed to protons incident at energies between 18 and 130 MeV. These errors are shown to differ significantly from those induced in the same devices by alphas from an Am-241 source. There is considerable variation among devices in their sensitivity to proton-induced soft errors, even among devices of the same type. For protons incident at 130 MeV, the soft error cross sections measured in these experiments varied from 10 to the -8th to 10 to the -6th sq cm/proton. For individual devices, however, the soft error cross section consistently increased with beam energy from 18-130 MeV. Analysis indicates that the soft errors induced by energetic protons result from spallation interactions between the incident protons and the nuclei of the atoms comprising the device. Because energetic protons are the most numerous of both the galactic and solar cosmic rays and form the inner radiation belt, proton-induced soft errors have potentially serious implications for many electronic systems flown in space.

Mcnulty, P. J.↗

Preliminary calibration results for the BATSE instrument on CGRO

Preliminary results pertaining to spectral reconstruction using Burst and Transient Source (BATSE) Large Area Detector measurements of solar flares are presented. The solar flare measurements are currently being used to fine tune the calibration of our data analysis software. The current status of the stability of spectral analysis, given the systematic errors present in burst location, are given. A brief description is given of enhancements to the input data for the atmospheric scattering algorithm that will be implemented in the data analysis software.

Pendleton, G. N.↗

Top-down and bottom-up definitions of human failure events in human reliability analysis

In the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question is crucial, however, as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PRAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PRA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) often tend to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

02 PETROLEUM↗

One Size Does Not Fit All: Human Failure Event Decomposition and Task Analysis

In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered or exacerbated by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications. In this paper, I first review top-down and bottom-up approaches for defining HFEs and then present a seven-step guideline to ensure a task analysis completed as part of human error identification decomposes to a level suitable for use as HFEs. This guideline illustrates an effective way to bridge the bottom-up approach with top-down requirements.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗