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DOE OSTI2020

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 3: Collision Risk for Animals around Turbines

The potential for marine animals to encounter and collide with turbines, especially tidal and river turbines, along with the biological, ecological, and regulatory consequences of any such interactions, remain active areas of research and topics of global interest. Uncertainty and knowledge gaps associated with collision risk continue to present challenges within consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes for turbine developments. Consequently, collision risk continues to be the focus of significant research effort, which in recent years has included environmental monitoring of operational devices and arrays. This chapter addresses the overall progress and growth in knowledge across this topic area, and specific progress related to marine mammals, fish, and seabirds. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-3-collision

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Wetland Carbon Sequestration in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage and locations where carbon and nitrogen cycles have a disproportionately large impact on land, water, and air in comparison to the area they occupy. The extremely high rates of carbon sequestration in these systems are the result of complex feedbacks between vegetation and the physical environment. The plant and microbial interactions that drive these feedbacks are absent in ecosystem- and global-scale Earth System models. The goal of this proposal was to address the uncertain response of the coastal carbon sink to climate change, a critical knowledge gap in coastal carbon research and a significant barrier to incorporating coastal wetlands into Earth System Models. The Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) was designed to understand the ecosystem-scale consequences of warming and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) in tidal wetlands at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface. We successfully designed and built a novel whole-ecosystem warming and eCO₂ experiment in a coastal wetland. The gradient design of the warming treatments (+0, +1.7, +3.4, +5.1 ⁰C) allowed us to discover unexpected non-linear and non-additive responses arising from plant-microbe interactions. We concluded that these non-linear responses to warming were the result of plants and microbes responding to temperature at different thresholds, with important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Plant Hazards and Risk Analysis Supporting Hydrogen Plant Siting near Nuclear Power Plants. Final report

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considering flexible plant operations to take advantage of excess thermal and electrical energy. One option for NPPs is to pursue hydrogen production through high temperature electrolysis as an alternate revenue stream to remain economically viable. The intent of this study is to investigate the risk of a high temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen production facility (HTEF) in close proximity to an NPP. This analysis evaluates a postulated HTEF located 1 km from an NPP, including the likelihood of an accident and the associated consequence to critical NPP targets. This analysis shows that although the likelihood of a leak in an HTEF is not negligible, the consequence to critical NPP targets is not expected to lead to a failure at a distance of 1 km. Furthermore, the minimum separation distance of the HTEF is calculated based on the target fragility criteria of 1 psi defined in Regulatory Guide 1.91.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Plant Hazards and Risk Analysis Supporting Hydrogen Plant Siting near Nuclear Power Plants (Final Report)

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Applications Using Linear State Estimation Technology (RTA/LSE)

Electric Power Group, LLC (EPG) was awarded DOE OE0000849 to design, develop, and demonstrate three real-time applications for monitoring power system stability. The applications use phasor measurements and processing by a linear state estimator (LSE) to improve system visibility and accuracy. These applications leverage the large and expanding phasor measurement systems being deployed by utilities throughout the world, and specifically in the United States. Phasor measurements provide a much more detailed view of the power systems than traditional SCADA systems, so can provide better visibility of events and an early warning of developing problems. These three applications are real-time contingency analysis (RTCA), area angle monitoring (AAM), and a voltage stability index (VSI). The project was fully completed as proposed. All three applications were successfully implemented and demonstrated. There were challenges the caused project delays, however. While the RTCA is based on well-known concepts and readily available tools, its deployment using phasor measurements meant it needed to be adapted to sometimes sparse measurements and limited coverage areas. EPG met these challenges with extensive modeling and testing. The AAM is based on unproven research, so EPG had to deal with a lot of unknowns and develop additional methods for practical implementation. These activities took more time than anticipated, so required extra time for development. In addition, there was difficulty getting adequate measurement locations for successful deployment and utility installation delays. Consequently, the project required a time extension to complete. These three real-time applications, RTCA, AAM, and VSI, use only phasor measurement input. Since they do not require the EMS or other measurement systems, they can serve as a backup and security check for the EMS. Phasor measurements are validated and extended by an LSE. The LSE will always produce an output even when some inputs are impaired, so the RT applications will operate even when the EMS state estimator does not converge and the applications it supports cannot function. Consequently, these RT applications can provide valuable additional reliability for control center operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Physics from the Neutrino Portal: Early Universe Implications and Detection Prospects

Despite their ubiquity, the nature of Dark Matter (DM) and neutrinos remains mysterious. Both are examples of particles which are neutral, stable, and require physics beyond the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics. It is therefore natural to investigate theories which relate them. If DM has more than gravitational interactions, it must not couple very sizably to the Standard Mode (SM) in order to have escaped detection so far. The nature of this coupling (or “portal”) is of paramount importance in determining the optimal experimental search strategies. This proposal aims to focus on the implications of “Hidden Sector” models of new physics where the dominant interaction is from the neutrino-mixing portal. Such scenarios give rise to new neutrino self-interactions and DM-neutrino interactions with a variety of consequences. By undertaking the thorough study of neutrino portal (NP) theories of DM this proposal seeks to achieve the following specific objectives: (1) Expand and deepen the theoretical foundations of self-interacting neutrinos in the early universe with application to sterile neutrino DM, (2) establish theoretical and phenomenological bases for DM-modified neutrino oscillations, (3) establish sensitivity projections for neutrino self-interactions from future IceCube data. The proposed research will intellectually contribute to the physics literature by thoroughly characterizing the consequences of “hidden sector” models incorporating DM and neutrinos. Theoretical consistency and a complete description of their impact on the early universe will constitute one component of this work. As a result of the additional structure in the neutrino sector the detectability of various aspects of neutrino physics will be impacted. This includes modifications to oscillation experiments, ultra-high-energy neutrino telescopes (e.g. IceCube, KM3NET), and Cosmic Microwave Background data. The success of this research proposal will depend on the successful integration of these complementary probes of new physics in the proper context of theoretically motivated scenarios determined from their impact on the early universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

MSR Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection White Paper

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) have seen a resurgence of interest in the past decade around the world. Support for these activities is provided from both national and private sources. The largest difference from the 2011 GIF MSR PR&PP evaluation consequently is the transition from evaluating academic systems focused on exploring the technical potential of MSRs to those of companies and countries focusing on near-term deployment. A wide variety of designs currently exist ranging from solid to liquid-fueled designs, with salt processing on-site or off-site, and a variety of fuel choices. As such, the proliferation resistance and physical protection aspects will have significantly more variation depending on reactor design than the other advanced reactors. The rapid introduction and evolution of innovative MSR designs inevitably means that technology specific details of overview reports, such as this one, become rapidly outdated. Consequently, this report focuses on essential features required for any MSR rather than specific design aspects.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Tunnel Safety Study

Several jurisdictions with critical tunnel infrastructure have expressed the need to understand the risks and implications of traffic incidents in tunnels involving hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. A risk analysis was performed to estimate what scenarios were most likely to occur in the event of a crash. The results show that the most likely consequence is no additional hazard from the hydrogen, although some factors need additional data and study to validate. This includes minor crashes and scenarios with no release or ignition. When the hydrogen does ignite, it is most likely a jet flame from the pressure relief device release due to a hydrocarbon fire. This scenario was considered in detailed modeling of specific tunnel configurations, as well as discussion of consequence concerns from the Massachusetts Department of Transportation. Localized concrete spalling may result where the jet flame impinges the ceiling, but this is not expected to occur with ventilation. Structural epoxy remains well below the degradation temperature. The total stress on the steel structure was significantly lower than the yield stress of stainless steel at the maximum steel temperature even when the ventilation was not operational. As a result, the steel structure will not be compromised. It is important to note that the study took a conservative approach in several factors, so observed temperatures should be lower than predicted by the models.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2016

Analytic framework for the United States cyber deterrence strategy. Final draft, 2nd submission (20 May 2015]

If the United States (U.S.) government allows cyberattacks to continue on their current trajectory of increased frequency and effect, the bonds holding our society together will be jeopardized, potentially impacting the survival of our society as we know it. Actions must be taken not only to defend against, but also to deter future cyberattacks. To achieve a credible and actionable U.S. Cyber Deterrence Strategy, the following three lines of effort are recommended for implementation by the White House: 1. Add a sixth priority to the Obama Administration's current cyberspace priorities to state: "Advance our cyber response policies and capabilities to further protect the country's national interests by deterring attacks within cyberspace." 2. Adopt the proposed Cyber Deterrence Analytic Framework as a guide for policy makers to use when determining the appropriate response to a cyberattack. 3. Implement the proposed Presidential Policy Directive outlining the United States' deterrence policy for cyber. These recommendations for establishing a U.S. Cyber Deterrence Strategy address the following key findings: As the U.S. private sector owns and operates over 90% of all of the networks and infrastructure of cyberspace, an effective policy must be communicated clearly across the government, business enterprise, and most importantly, to the people; More so than any time in our nation's history, individuals, companies, and organizations depend on cyberspace for uses ranging from social interactions to sustaining democracy; Threats existing within the cyber domain have grown both in attack vector complexity and societal impact; and, The current Presidential Executive Orders and Policy Directives related to cyber deterrence do not include a strategy for deterring attacks. The concepts presented in this paper were derived from interviews with experts in subjects ranging from deterrence philosophy, nuclear weapons implementation, U.S. cyber operations, and U.S. cyber policy. In addition, theories on deterrence strategies are explored, ranging from the 1960s to present to develop a deterrence strategy unique to cyber. Lastly, recent examples of cyberattacks are examined to provide evidence for the need to establish consequences for those individuals or countries that continue to behave nefariously within cyberspace. To form a strong foundation for a U.S. Cyber Deterrence Strategy, the U.S. must establish and clearly articulate the consequences for nations or individuals if they choose to initiate a cyberattack on the U.S. or its national interests.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Post-Fire Safe Shutdown Capability. An Inspector's Handbook. Draft Report

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) current fire protection regulatory framework was initiated in response to a cable fire that occurred at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station in 1975. Following the issuance of several guidance documents, in 1981 the Commission codified deterministic requirements to provide reasonable assurance that fire would not jeopardize reactor safety (10 CFR 50.48 "Fire Protection" and Appendix R to 10 CFR 50). Since then, the results of plant operating experience, NRC inspection activities and cable fire testing programs have served to clarify the application of these requirements. In 2004, the NRC amended 10 CFR Part 50.48 to add a new subsection, 10 CFR 50.48(c), that endorses, with exceptions, the National Fire Protection Association's 805, "Performance-Based Standard for Fire Protection for Light Water Reactor Electric Generating Plants — 2001 Edition," as a voluntary alternative for demonstrating compliance with Appendix R. To date, approximately half of all operating plants have transitioned to a risk-informed approach under 10 CFR 50.48(c). Regardless of the selected approach, each operating nuclear power plant should establish a comprehensive fire protection program that includes features needed to minimize the likelihood and consequence of firesl. To achieve this objective, fire protection programs integrate the NRC's long-held safety concept of defense-in-depth (DID) by providing multiple barriers against potentially unacceptable consequences of fire. To minimize the frequency and size of fires, the first lines of defense include controls for fire prevention, such as controlling combustibles and ignition sources and fire mitigation features, such as fire detection and suppression systems. In the unlikely event that a fire should start and continue to grow in spite of these features, appropriate fire protection features, such as fire-rated barriers are provided as necessary to ensure the accomplishment of essential shutdown functions. This handbook was specifically developed for NRC inspectors that may be assigned to perform elements of Inspection Procedure (IP) 71111.05T, "Fire Protection (Triennial)," including, (a) "Protection of Safe Shutdown Capabilities," (e) "Alternative Shutdown Capability," and (f) "Circuit Analyses." Thus, the document concentrates solely on the final element of defense-in-depth— ensuring reactor safety will not be compromised in the event of a serious fire. In addition to describing how the NRC's regulatory framework has evolved since the Browns Ferry Fire, the handbook illustrates the content and scope of various analyses typically referenced in a plant's fire protection licensing basis and includes techniques and insights for assessing the plant's conformance to those criteria.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Preliminary Engineering and Cost Analysis for DPC Disposal Solutions. Final Draft

There are currently (as of January, 2019) more than 2,700 dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) loaded with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) across the United States. DPCs continue to be loaded at a rate of more than 200 per year by mid-century there are likely to be more than 8,160 DPCs in service. Options for disposing of SNF loaded in DPCs include repackaging into specialized disposal canisters, directly disposing of the loaded DPCs (with or without modification), or some combination of the two. The main technical challenges for direct disposal of loaded DPCs are thermal management, handling and emplacement operations for the large, heavy packages, and postclosure criticality control. This report focuses on postclosure criticality control which is the most challenging. The challenge lies in determining how to modify DPCs so as to minimize the probability that a criticality event might occur in a repository, or if the DPCs are not modified, to understand the nature and consequences of postclosure criticality events. There are several approaches that could facilitate direct disposal of loaded DPCs with acceptable repository performance. This report describes these approaches and presents comparative analysis of the rough-order-of-magnitude (ROM) costs. Repackaging SNF in DPCs into specialized disposal canisters could be financially and operationally costly with additional radiological, operational safety, and management risks. A disposition approach that would not involve repackaging or modifications to DPCs (future or already loaded) is development of a new licensing strategy that addresses the risk (probability and consequence) from criticality events. A different approach would modify existing loaded DPCs (some or all of them), and change the loading or design of future DPCs, to decrease the probability of a criticality event in a repository below levels of concern. This report investigates the cost to modify existing loaded DPCs, and the cost to modify the loading or design of future DPCs to facilitate direct disposal. It establishes the ROM cost for repackaging SNF that has been loaded into DPCs, into specialized canisters for disposal. It also identifies technical and regulatory challenges associated with the potential design modifications and loading considerations. It is left to future analyses to compare radiological, operational safety, and management risks associated with the available approaches.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

MELCOR 2.2 Benchmarks of Peach Bottom NUREG/CR 7155 Uncertainty Analysis

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performed a first-of-a-kind uncertainty analysis (UA) of the accident progression, radiological releases, and offsite consequences for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) of an unmitigated long-term station blackout (LTSBO) severe accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The objective of the UA was to evaluate the robustness of the SOARCA deterministic "best estimate results and conclusions documented in NUREG-1935, and to develop insight into the overall sensitivity of the SOARCA results to uncertainty in key modeling inputs. The study was completed in 2015 and documented in NUREG/CR-7155. Since 2015, two other SOARCA UAs were completed for two pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants. The PWR UAs incrementally updated the approach and methodology, including using the latest release of the MELCOR 2.2 computer code. There were also advances made in the state-of-the-art modeling related to NRC efforts using the Peach Bottom model in NUREG-2206, which provided the technical basis for the containment protection and release reduction rulemaking for boiling water reactors with Mark I and Mark II containments. This report documents the input model changes from the NUREG/CR-7155 study and performs a small number of reference calculations to assess the changes of the new computer code and the model input updates. The objective of the work is to verify whether the updated Peach Bottom MELCOR model and updated version of MELCOR support the conclusions formed in the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA by performing these representative calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Selecting and Implementing Resilience Metrics in Existing Energy Sector Models [Slides]

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Revolutionizing observations and predictability of Arctic system dynamics through next-generation dense, heterogeneous and intelligent wireless sensor networks with embedded AI

The Arctic region is a complex and dynamic system, where changes in temperature and partitioning between water in solid, liquid and vapor phase are fundamentally reshaping hydro-biogeochemical fluxes from the bedrock to the atmosphere. The increasing temperature and frequency of extreme heat, precipitation and fire events (Wang et al., 2017; Meredith et al., 2019) have critical consequences for the Arctic ecosystems and people, as well as for the global climate system. Although many observational and remote sensing activities have been on-going, detailed ecosystem processes – particularly related to controls on and impacts of permafrost thaw – are difficult to detect or measure. To improve the understanding and prediction of these extreme events and their consequences, we need a revolution in the way we collect ground-based observations from hillslope to pan-Arctic scales and couple them with satellite imagery and models to deliver rich, actionable, and scale-appropriate data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the Public Radiation Exposure Calculation for the Incident at the National Institute of Standards and Technology Center for Neutron Research on February 3, 2021

The Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration Consequence Management Program was contacted by the Health Physics Chief of the National Institute of Standards and Technology Center for Neutron Research (NCNR) to review public radiation exposure calculations for an event that occurred on its Gaithersburg, Maryland, campus on February 3, 2021. Subject matter experts from the Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST) assets, specifically the Consequence Management Home Team (CMHT) and the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), were selected to provide support. CMHT used three separate modeling codes to validate the results the scientists at NCNR calculated using the HotSpot model. The analyses were performed using NARAC’s in-house Lagrangian dispersion codes known as LODI and Aeolus, as well as the Turbo FRMAC software from Sandia National Laboratories. The team used parameters provided by the NCNR scientists regarding the site, applicable observable meteorological data, and environmental survey and sampling data to estimate public exposure. Each model estimated public dose at much less than 0.5 mrem. CMHT concurs with the NCNR public radiation exposure calculations which state that members of the public at the 400-meter boundary would have received a radiological dose of less than 0.5 mrem.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Metrics to Evaluate Utility Resilience Investments

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) contracted Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) to research the integration of community and electric grid resilience investment planning as part of the Designing Resilient Communities (DRC): A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment project. Synapse produced a series of reports to explore the challenges and opportunities in several key areas, including benefit-cost analysis (BCA), performance metrics, microgrids, and regulatory mechanisms. This report focuses on BCA. BCA is an approach that electric utilities, electric utility regulators, and communities can use to evaluate the costs and benefits of a wide range of grid resilience investments in a comprehensive and consistent way. While BCA is regularly applied to some types of grid investments, application of BCA to grid resilience investments is in the early stages of development. Though resilience is increasingly cited in connection with grid investment proposals and plans, the resilience- related costs and benefits of grid resilience investments are typically not fully identified, infrequently quantified, and almost never monetized. Without complete assessments of costs and benefits, regulators can be hesitant to approve some types of grid resilience investments. This report provides the first application of the framework developed in the 2020 National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources (NSPM for DERs) to grid resilience investments. We provide guidance on next steps for implementation to enable grid resilience investments to receive due consideration. We suggest developing BCA principles and standards for jurisdiction-specific BCA tests. We also recommend identifying the resilience impacts of the investments and quantification of these impacts by establishing utility performance metrics for resilience. Proactive integration of grid resilience investments into existing regulatory processes and practices can increase the capacity of jurisdictions to respond to and recover from the consequences of extreme events. 1 National Energy Screening Project. 2020. National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of MELCOR and MACCS Capabilities for Molten Salt Reactor Decay Heat Removal During both Normal Operations and Salt Spill Scenarios

This report provides a demonstration of MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) capabilities to perform a dose assessment for a Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) off-gas system. A primary containment system salt spill is used as the off-normal scenario, along with a normal operation dose assessment for comparison. This report discusses the tools, methods, and information used in this assessment so that it may be utilized as a starting point for future advanced reactor consequence analyses. This report also highlights several gaps, to include the need for reactor inventory information specific to advanced reactors, and the need for specific atmospheric transport models that take into account the unique deposition behaviors of tritium and carbon-14, and makes recommendations for closing these gaps. This report satisfies the DOE NE Milestone M4RD-21SN0601062.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗