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This paper presents viewgraphs on the development of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) System architecture and Concept of Operation (CONOPS) activities. The topics include: 1) Background Information on System Architecture/CONOPS Activity; 2) Activity Work in Progress; and 3) Anticipated By-Products.
This paper presents the weather accident prevention project review during the period of June 5, through June 7, 2001. The topics include: 1) Background; 2) Guidance; 3) Plan; 4) System Elements; 5) AWIN System; 6) Market Segments; 7) Technology Development Level; 8) Aviation Safety Program Organization; 9) Partnerships; 10) NASA Facilities; 11) Timeline; 12) AWIN Research Areas; and 13) Cooperative Research with FAA. This paper is in viewgraph form.
This viewgraph presentation provides information on two experiments on the effectiveness of a cockpit weather information system on a simulated general aviation flight. The presentation covers the simulation hardware configuration, the display device screen layout, a mission scenario, conclusions, and recommendations. The second experiment, with its own scenario and conclusions, is a follow-on experiment.
There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.
Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations requires knowledge of how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, the large-scale circulation and energy fluxes vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process linking these climate elements is precipitation. Accurate knowledge of how precipitation varies in space and time and how it couples with other atmospheric variables is essential for understanding the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, TRMM data products have played a key role in advancing the field of data assimilation to provide better global analyses for climate research and numerical weather prediction. TRMM research has demonstrated the effectiveness of microwave-based rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations in improving the quality of assimilated datasets and upgrading forecast skills. TRMM latent heating products have also stimulated experimentation with innovative techniques to use this type of information to improve global analyses. We discuss strategies of assimilating TRMM observations at NASA s Data Assimilation Office and present results on the impact assimilating TRMM data on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) analyses and forecast capabilities.
This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.
Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) provide pilots with displays of stored geo-spatial data representing terrain, obstacles, and cultural features. As comprehensive validation is impractical, these databases typically have no quantifiable level of integrity. Further, updates to the databases may not be provided as changes occur. These issues limit the certification level and constrain the operational context of SVS for civil aviation. Previous work demonstrated the feasibility of using a realtime monitor to bound the integrity of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) by using radar altimeter measurements during flight. This paper describes an extension of this concept to include X-band Weather Radar (WxR) measurements. This enables the monitor to detect additional classes of DEM errors and to reduce the exposure time associated with integrity threats. Feature extraction techniques are used along with a statistical assessment of similarity measures between the sensed and stored features that are detected. Recent flight-testing in the area around the Juneau, Alaska Airport (JNU) has resulted in a comprehensive set of sensor data that is being used to assess the feasibility of the proposed monitor technology. Initial results of this assessment are presented.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.
Space-based systems are developing into critical infrastructure to support the quality of life on Earth. Mission requirements along with rapidly evolving technologies have outpaced efforts to accommodate detrimental space environment impacts on systems. This chapter describes approaches to accommodate space climate and space weather impacts on systems and notes areas where gaps in model development limit our ability to prevent spacecraft anomalies.
A simulation study was conducted in 1994 at Langley Research Center that used 12 commercial airline pilots repeatedly flying complex Microwave Landing System (MLS)-type approaches to parallel runways under Category IIIc weather conditions. Two sensor insert concepts of 'Synthetic Vision Systems' (SVS) were used in the simulated flights, with a more conventional electro-optical display (similar to a Head-Up Display with raster capability for sensor imagery), flown under less restrictive visibility conditions, used as a control condition. The SVS concepts combined the sensor imagery with a computer-generated image (CGI) of an out-the-window scene based on an onboard airport database. Various scenarios involving runway traffic incursions (taxiing aircraft and parked fuel trucks) and navigational system position errors (both static and dynamic) were used to assess the pilots' ability to manage the approach task with the display concepts. The two SVS sensor insert concepts contrasted the simple overlay of sensor imagery on the CGI scene without additional image processing (the SV display) to the complex integration (the AV display) of the CGI scene with pilot-decision aiding using both object and edge detection techniques for detection of obstacle conflicts and runway alignment errors.
We demonstrate current capabilities of the NASA finite-volume General Circulation Model an high-resolution global weather prediction, and discuss its development path in the foreseeable future. This model can be regarded as a prototype of a future NASA Earth modeling system intended to unify development activities cutting across various disciplines within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise.
Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.
In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.
The authors present two scenarios for the temperature history of Earth. One scenario is conventional, the other relies on a warmer history. Both scenarios include surface cooling determined by the evolution of the biosphere and are similar until the Proterozoic period. The warmer scenario requires a higher plant/lichen terrestrial biota to increase weathering intensity. Justification for a warmer surface includes period temperatures from the oxygen isotope record of coexisting phosphates and cherts, an upper limit of 58 degrees C from primary gypsum precipitation, and the lack of fractionation of sulfur isotopes between sulfide and sulfates in Archean sediments.
This slide presentation on weather information communications examines datalink capacity, information processing, decision making, and datalink costs.
This report describes preliminary results of work done by JHU/APL under contract to the NASA Glenn Research Center to support flight testing of the Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) data link as a medium for weather data exchange. It presents a high level architectural description of the use of UAT to meet the program objectives with an identification of issues associated with the use of this data link, including a high level definition of the changes required to UAT avionics and ground-based receivers and supporting ground infrastructure to support implementation of the recommended architecture with focus on the issues associated with these changes.
The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.
Since its founding in 1992, Global Science & Technology, Inc. (GST), of Greenbelt, Maryland, has been developing technologies and providing services in support of NASA scientific research. GST specialties include scientific analysis, science data and information systems, data visualization, communications, networking and Web technologies, computer science, and software system engineering. As a longtime contractor to Goddard Space Flight Center s Earth Science Directorate, GST scientific, engineering, and information technology staff have extensive qualifications with the synthesis of satellite, in situ, and Earth science data for weather- and climate-related projects. GST s experience in this arena is end-to-end, from building satellite ground receiving systems and science data systems, to product generation and research and analysis.