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DOE OSTI2023

Bringing Low- and Moderate-Income Solar Financing Models to Scale (Final Technical Report (FTR))

In this final report, the Clean Energy States Alliance(CESA) and its project partners describe their work to accelerate the development of solar projects for three distinct subsets of the low- to moderate-income(LMI) solar market: single-family homes, manufactured homes, and community institutions, including multifamily affordable housing. For each market sector, the project team undertook research, outreach, and market-building activities. By advancing promising LMI solar financing innovations for different housing types and spreading them to new locations, the Scaling Up Solar for Under-Resourced Communities project has built momentum to scale up LMI solar. Although the report describes some research pertaining to solar adoption in LMI communities, this project was original in that it focused on two specific models to tackle single-family homes and community institutions. Until this project, very little research dedicated to solar for manufactured homes existed. For each market sector, the project team undertook research, outreach, and market-building activities. For the single-family homes sector, the project encouraged states to adapt a program model based on a successful Connecticut initiative that has brought solar to thousands of LMI homeowners. For manufactured homes, the project analyzed the potential for using solar for that housing sector and worked with states, utilities, and other stakeholders to launch pilot projects or programs. For community institutions, the project team worked with foundations, lenders, and community service organizations to inventory, analyze, and communicate models for philanthropic investment that accelerate the deployment of solar and solar+storage in multifamily affordable housing, health centers, and other LMI-serving community institutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

The solar wind interaction with Venus

The Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) mission has played a key role in establishing the nature of the solar wind interaction with Venus. Although earlier probes had determined that Venus presented an obstacle much smaller than the size of earth's magnetosphere to the solar wind, they did not carry out in situ measurements pertaining to solar wind interaction studies at low enough altitudes to determine why. They also did not provide datasets of sufficient duration to study the variability of the interaction of both short (one day) and long (solar cycle) timescales. The first 600 of the nearly 5000 orbits of PVO magnetometer data have been used to determine a very low upper limit on the intrinsic dipolar magnetic moment of Venus. The consequence of that low magnetic moment is that the solar wind interacts directly with the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Relative to a dipolar field obstacle, the ionospheric obstacle is rather incompressible. A bow shock is observed to stand in front of the nearly Venus-sized ionospheric obstacle at a comparatively steady subsolar altitude of approximately 1.5 R(v) (Venus radii). This shock decelerates the supersonic solar wind plasma so that it can flow around the obstacle. It was found to change its average position in the terminator plane from about 2.4 R(v) to 2.1 R(v) as the solar cycle progressed from the 1978 orbit insertion near solar maximum through the 1986-87 solar minimum, and back again during the latest solar activity increase. Between the bow shock and the ionosphere proper, the slowed solar wind plasma flow diverges near the subsolar point and makes its way across the terminator where it reaccelerates and continues anti-Sunward. The solar wind magnetic field, which is in effect frozen into the flowing plasma, is distorted in this 'magnetosheath' region so that it appears to hang up or drape over the dayside ionosphere before it slips around with the flow. These features of the solar wind interaction are also seen when the obstacle is a dipole magnetic field, but there are two important distinctions. In the wake of the Venus obstacle one finds an induced magnetic tail composed of varying interplanetary fields rather than the constant fields of intrinsic origin. This magnetotail is further seen to be populated by Heavy (0+) ions that are evidently escaping from the planet at significant (approximately 10(exp -25) s(exp -1)) rates. These heavy ions are also observed in the dayside magnetosheath. The interpretation is that ions are produced by both photoionization and solar wind electron impact ionization of the upper neutral atmosphere that extends into the magnetosheath.

Luthmann, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Materials That Enhance Efficiency and Radiation Resistance of Solar Cells

A thin layer (approximately 10 microns) of a novel "transparent" fluorescent material is applied to existing solar cells or modules to effectively block and convert UV light, or other lower solar response waveband of solar radiation, to visible or IR light that can be more efficiently used by solar cells for additional photocurrent. Meanwhile, the layer of fluorescent coating material remains fully "transparent" to the visible and IR waveband of solar radiation, resulting in a net gain of solar cell efficiency. This innovation alters the effective solar spectral power distribution to which an existing cell gets exposed, and matches the maximum photovoltaic (PV) response of existing cells. By shifting a low PV response waveband (e.g., UV) of solar radiation to a high PV response waveband (e.g. Vis-Near IR) with novel fluorescent materials that are transparent to other solar-cell sensitive wavebands, electrical output from solar cells will be enhanced. This approach enhances the efficiency of solar cells by converting UV and high-energy particles in space that would otherwise be wasted to visible/IR light. This innovation is a generic technique that can be readily implemented to significantly increase efficiencies of both space and terrestrial solar cells, without incurring much cost, thus bringing a broad base of economical, social, and environmental benefits. The key to this approach is that the "fluorescent" material must be very efficient, and cannot block or attenuate the "desirable" and unconverted" waveband of solar radiation (e.g. Vis-NIR) from reaching the cells. Some nano-phosphors and novel organometallic complex materials have been identified that enhance the energy efficiency on some state-of-the-art commercial silicon and thin-film-based solar cells by over 6%.

Sun, Xiadong↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Characterization of Thin Film Solar Cells

Polycrystalline thin-film solar cells have reached a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with all other sources of electricity. The technology has significantly improved in recent years, with laboratory cell efficiencies for cadmium telluride (CdTe), perovskites, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) each exceeding 22 percent. Both CdTe and CIGS solar panels are now produced at the gigawatt scale. However, there are ongoing challenges, including the continued need to improve performance and stability while reducing cost. Advancing polycrystalline solar cell technology demands an in-depth understanding of efficiency, scaling, and degradation mechanisms, which requires sophisticated characterization methods. These methods will enable reseachers and manufacturers to improve future solar modules and systems. This work provides researchers with a concise overview of the status of thin-film solar cell technology and characterization. Chapters describe material systems and their properties and then provide an in-depth look at relevant characterization methods and the learning facilitated by each of these. Following an introductory chapter, the book provides systematic and thorough coverage of the following topics: trends to improve CdTe solar cell performance; Cu(In,Ga)Se2 and related materials; perovskite solar cells; photovoltaic device modelling; luminescence and thermal imaging of thin-film photovoltaic materials, devices, and modules; application of spatially resolved spectroscopy characterization techniques on Cu2ZnSnSe4 solar cells; time-resolved photoluminescence characterization of polycrystalline thin-film solar cells; fundamentals of electrical material and device spectroscopies applied to thin-film polycrystalline chalcogenide solar cells; nanometer-scale characterization of thin-film solar cells by atomic force microscopy-based electrical probes; scanning transmission electron microscopy characterization of solar cells; photoelectron spectroscopy methods in solar cell research; time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography; and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance characterization for photovoltaic applications. The final chapter provides an overview and describes future prospects.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-junction solar cells paving the way for super high-efficiency

In order to realize a clean energy society by using renewable energies, high-performance solar cells are a very attractive proposition. The development of high-performance solar cells offers a promising pathway toward achieving high power per unit cost for many applications. As state-of-the-art of single-junction solar cells are approaching the Shockley–Queisser limit of 32%–33%, an important strategy to raise the efficiency of solar cells further is stacking solar cell materials with different bandgaps to absorb different colors of the solar spectrum. The III–V semiconductor materials provide a relatively convenient system for fabricating multi-junction solar cells providing semiconductor materials that effectively span the solar spectrum as demonstrated by world record efficiencies (39.2% under one-sun and 47.1% under concentration) for six-junction solar cells. This success has inspired attempts to achieve the same with other materials like perovskites for which lower manufacturing costs may be achieved. Recently, Si multi-junction solar cells such as III–V/Si, II–VI/Si, chalcopyrite/Si, and perovskite/Si have become popular and are getting closer to economic competitiveness. Here, we discuss the perspectives of multi-junction solar cells from the viewpoint of efficiency and low-cost potential based on scientific and technological arguments and possible market applications. In addition, this article provides a brief overview of recent developments with respect to III–V multi-junction solar cells, III–V/Si, II–VI/Si, perovskite/Si tandem solar cells, and some new ideas including so-called 3rd generation concepts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Drivers of the Resource Adequacy Contribution of Solar and Storage for Florida Municipal Utilities

Solar’s variable generation limits its contribution to reliably meeting peak demand, or its resource adequacy contribution. Energy storage is a leading option to increase solar’s resource adequacy contribution, yet the contribution from different configurations of solar and storage is not widely understood. We develop methods for exploring the primary drivers of an estimate of the resource adequacy contribution of solar and storage, and we apply the methods to a case study in Florida, where demand peaks in winter and summer. We find that the portion of solar nameplate capacity that contributes to resource adequacy—its capacity credit—is less than 50% and that it declines with increasing solar penetration. The capacity credit of storage, even though it is fully controllable by the system operator, strongly depends on the duration of storage. The capacity credit of 1 hour of storage can be less than the capacity credit of solar. Achieving a 90% capacity credit requires at least 4–5 hours of storage when storage capacity is small relative to the system peak. As storage deployment increases to 20% of the peak demand, 9 hours—and sometimes more than 10 hours—of storage are needed to achieve a 90% capacity credit. Increased solar deployment at the system level can increase storage’s capacity credit. Directly pairing solar and storage can also impact the capacity credit. Storage with a power rating similar to the solar inverter rating loses capacity credit when coupled with solar if its duration is more than 1–2 hours, because storage competes with solar for use of the inverter. On the other hand, there is no reduction in capacity credit when the storage is small relative to the solar inverter. The approach and tools developed here for exploratory analysis can be useful for many other utilities and regions grappling with similar preliminary questions, prior to evaluation of specific cases using more detailed and resource-intensive modeling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF 50 YEARS OF DAILY SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DATA

Daily mean value of solar wind velocity measured by various spacecraft near the Earth’s orbit from 1963 November 27 to 2013 December 31 given by OMNIWeb is utilized to investigate its characteristics through statistical analyses. The percent probability distribution of solar wind velocity can be described well by the Γ distribution function with the most probable velocity to be 373 km s{sup -1}. It is found that solar wind could be statistically classified into three groups: (1) the low-velocity wind, v<450 km s{sup -1}, which positively responds to, and in the cycle phase lags, the solar activity cycle; (2) the high-velocity wind, 450≤v<725 km s{sup -1}, which negatively responds to, and in the cycle phase leads, the solar activity cycle, but in a short timescale (one-rotation-period) lags the solar activity cycle; and (3) the extreme-high-velocity wind, v≥725 km s{sup -1}, which positively responds to, and in cycle phase leads, the solar activity cycle. A period of about 27 days is determined for solar wind in the first two groups, so that solar wind in the groups is modulated by the solar rotation and related with solar long-life magnetic structures. Solar wind of extreme high velocity appears mainly at the descending phases of the solar cycles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB): 1998-2015

This paper validates the performance of the physics-based Physical Solar Model (PSM) data set in the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to quantify the accuracy of the magnitude and the spatial and temporal variability of the solar radiation data. Achieving higher penetrations of solar energy on the electric grid and reducing integration costs requires accurate knowledge of the available solar resource. Understanding the impacts of clouds and other meteorological constituents on the solar resource and quantifying intra-/inter-hour, seasonal, and interannual variability are essential for accurately designing utility-scale solar energy projects. Solar resource information can be obtained from ground-based measurement stations and/or from modeled data sets. The availability of measurements is scarce, both temporally and spatially, because it is expensive to maintain a high-density solar radiation measurement network that collects good quality data for long periods of time. On the other hand, high temporal and spatial resolution gridded satellite data can be used to estimate surface radiation for long periods of time and is extremely useful for solar energy development. Because of the advantages of satellite-based solar resource assessment, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the PSM. The PSM produced gridded solar irradiance -- global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance -- for the NSRDB at a 4-km by 4-km spatial resolution and half-hourly temporal resolution covering the 18 years from 1998-2015. The NSRDB also contains additional ancillary meteorological data sets, such as temperature, relative humidity, surface pressure, dew point, and wind speed. Details of the model and data are available at https://nsrdb.nrel.gov. The results described in this paper show that the hourly-averaged satellite-derived data have a systematic (bias) error of approximately +5% for GHI and less than +10% for DNI; however, the scatter (root mean square error [RMSE]) difference is higher for the hourly averages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB): 1998-2015

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

PHOTOMETRIC TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SOLAR CONTINUUM AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO THE CENTER-TO-LIMB PROFILE

Solar irradiance variations over solar rotational timescales are largely determined by the passage of magnetic structures across the visible solar disk. Variations on solar cycle timescales are thought to be similarly due to changes in surface magnetism with activity. Understanding the contribution of magnetic structures to total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance requires assessing their contributions as a function of disk position. Since only relative photometry is possible from the ground, the contrasts of image pixels are measured with respect to a center-to-limb intensity profile. Using nine years of full-disk red and blue continuum images from the Precision Solar Photometric Telescope at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, we examine the sensitivity of continuum contrast measurements to the center-to-limb profile definition. Profiles which differ only by the amount of magnetic activity allowed in the pixels used to determine them yield oppositely signed solar cycle length continuum contrast trends, either agreeing with previous results and showing negative correlation with solar cycle or disagreeing and showing positive correlation with solar cycle. Changes in the center-to-limb profile shape over the solar cycle are responsible for the contradictory contrast results, and we demonstrate that the lowest contrast structures, internetwork and network, are most sensitive to these. Thus the strengths of the full-disk, internetwork, and network photometric trends depend critically on the magnetic flux density used in the quiet-Sun definition. We conclude that the contributions of low contrast magnetic structures to variations in the solar continuum output, particularly to long-term variations, are difficult, if not impossible, to determine without the use of radiometric imaging.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Solar Energy Innovation Ecosystem in Puerto Rico

This report presents initial findings from the research project, “Developing socially and economically generative, resilient PV-energy systems for low- and moderate-income communities: Applications for Puerto Rico.” This material is based upon work supported primarily by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy under the Solar Energy Technology Office Fiscal Year 2018 Funding Program award number DE-EE0008570 and in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy (DOE) under NSF CA No. EEC-1041895. This project is a joint effort of Arizona State University’s Center for Energy and Society; the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez’s Center for Hemispheric Cooperation in Research and Education in Engineering and Applied Science, Sustainable Energy Center, and National Institute for Energy and Island Sustainability; and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project seeks to understand the place of energy in low-income communities in Puerto Rico, the opportunities for solar energy to provide solutions to the energy challenges facing these communities, and the capacity of the solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico to deliver relevant solar solutions for these communities. We define the solar energy innovation ecosystem as the diverse actors and stakeholders whose collective networks and actions—and the flows among them of ideas, knowledge, data, influence, money, and equipment, as well as the rules that govern those flows—are essential to the success of renewable energy markets and projects. This report presents results from the first year of the project’s research, which has concentrated on several key goals: (1) characterizing the trajectory of solar energy development in Puerto Rico in the three years since Hurricane María; (2) mapping and characterizing the current solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico, including the technical potential for solar energy in Puerto Rico, and the business and policy landscape shaping solar developments; and (3) beginning to characterize the broad landscape of community energy initiatives underway in Puerto Rico. To pursue these goals, we engaged in a systematic review of solar energy developments in Puerto Rico and conducted interviews with over 100 members of the solar energy innovation, including policy, business, finance, research, and civil society leaders, as well as solar users. Solar technical potential data for Puerto Rico was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and is publicly available at: https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/144. The documentation for the NREL dataset is included as Appendix A.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Solar Cruiser Mission

Selected by NASA as an ESPA-class rideshare technology demonstration mission to launch with the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission in 2025, the NASA MSFC Solar Cruiser mission will mature solar sail technology for use in future Heliophysics missions, as well as missions of interest across a broad user community including NOAA, Earth, and Planetary Sciences. Solar sails, which use reflected sunlight to derive thrust, can be used to create artificial equilibria and near-indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of L1 along the Sun Earth Line (SEL), or at any desired offset from the SEL leading or trailing the Earth in its orbit. They can change the heliocentric inclination of a spacecraft from the ecliptic to as high as solar polar, stopping and remaining at any intermediate inclination orbit in between or can be used around a range of solar system bodies. The Solar Cruiser mission will fly a small spacecraft (~100 kg) with a large (>1600 square meter) solar sail containing embedded reflectivity control devices (RCDs) and photovoltaic cells, attaining a characteristic acceleration of >0.12 mm/s2. The mission concept includes successful deployment of the solar sail, validation of all sail subsystems, controlled station-keeping inside of the Sun-Earth L1 point, demonstration of pointing performance for science imaging, and finally an increase in heliocentric inclination (out of the ecliptic plane). Solar Cruiser would serve as a pathfinder for missions that observe the solar environment from unique vantage points such as a high inclination solar mission, opening a fundamentally new range of observational capabilities for the Heliophysics Program and for space weather monitoring. Observations away from the Sun-Earth line (SEL) present unique opportunities for answering the outstanding science questions of Heliophysics, for improving space-weather monitoring and prediction, and for revealing new discoveries about our Sun and solar system. High solar inclinations are particularly compelling. Investment in, and demonstration of, the technology needed to enable polar missions is essential to making this unique vantage point a reality in the next decade.

Solar Sail↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Core Project Final Report: Fiscal Years 2022-2024

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m2) for the United States that is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two calibration facilities that meet International Standards Organization-17025 (ISO-17025) standards and provide unique high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System (BMS) at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop (1) improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; (2) new standards through the ISO, the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), and the American Standards for Testing of Materials (ASTM) International; (c) solar radiation and meteorological models; and (d) advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL datasets are also critical for the validation of new models and datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The research and development of solar radiation measurement systems and resource modeling techniques are essential for advancing the scientific basis for producing reliable resource data. Specifically, the spatial, temporal, and spectral (wavelength dependency) characteristics of the solar resource are required in several different time frames for various project phases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Global status of recycling waste solar panels: A review

Highlights: • Solar panel recycling minimizes waste of environmental and economic resources. • Several processing methods from the literature are evaluated. • The status of the management for waste solar panels are systemically reviewed and discussed. • Policy should be formulated to encourage recycling of waste solar panels. • Manufacturers should take greater responsibility for recycling. - Abstract: With the enormous growth in the development and utilization of solar-energy resources, the proliferation of waste solar panels has become problematic. While current research into solar panels has focused on how to improve the efficiency of the production capacity, the dismantling and recycling of end-of-life (EOL) panels are seldom considered, as can be seen, for instance, in the lack of dedicated solar-panel recycling plants. EOL solar-panel recycling can effectively save natural resources and reduce the cost of production. To address the environmental conservation and resource recycling issues posed by the huge amount of waste solar panels regarding environmental conservation and resource recycling, the status of the management and recycling technologies for waste solar panels are systemically reviewed and discussed in this article. This review can provide a quantitative basis to support the recycling of PV panels, and suggests future directions for public policy makers. At present, from the technical aspect, the research on solar panel recovery is facing many problems, and we need to further develop an economically feasible and non-toxic technology. The research on solar photovoltaic panels’ management at the end of life is just beginning in many countries, and there is a need for further improvement and expansion of producer responsibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Expanding the Solar Workforce through the Illinois Community College System

The Illinois Green Economy Network (IGEN) is a consortium of all 39 Illinois community college districts working to grow the green economy in the state. The network aims to build capacity in sustainability and transform education by connecting business/industry and educators to resources, curating information and tools, cultivating partnerships, and advocating for change. Led by IGEN, the goal of the “Expanding the Solar Workforce through the Illinois Community College System” project was to create and sustain a comprehensive, statewide strategy that equips education and training providers, workers, businesses, and communities with resources and tools to prepare a solar workforce. A cohort of five Illinois community colleges participated in the program based on their capacity and interest, as well as their potential for and proximity to industry growth in the state: City Colleges of Chicago, John A. Logan College, Kankakee Community College, Lewis and Clark Community College, and Lincoln Land Community College. The project had three Objectives, 1) Address an unmet need by increasing the pool of skilled solar workers, 2) Keep pace with evolving needs of the solar workforce by improving programs to be more accessible and industry-driven, 3) Strengthen IGEN’s capacity as a statewide resource for solar education, training, and workforce initiatives. Overall, over 400 students were trained in solar installation practices, with over 40 businesses engaged. Additionally. the project spurred a number of innovations and the development of effective practices related to establishing and maintaining a solar installation program at a community college. This project sought to identify effective and scalable practices for developing a solar installation program which included the following components: enrolling students into aligned programs; developing curriculum and courses which meet industry needs; placing students in solar installation or related employment; and sustaining programming past grant funding. Through this project- IGEN was able to identify critical components of a solar installation program. Detailed further in this report these components describe 1) Necessary conditions for establishing a solar installation program, 2) Program structures use cases for different contexts, 3) Effective practices related to student pipeline development and program throughout. As a result of this project- all five participating community colleges have expressed support for continuing to offer solar installation training to their students. Additionally, three nonparticipating colleges in IGEN have expressed interest in adopting practice, courses, or curriculum developed through this program. IGEN has also committed to making the curriculum, course structure and other materials available on their website for accelerated adoption of effective practices both state and nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

On the Relation between the In Situ Properties and the Coronal Sources of the Solar Wind

We categorize the types of solar wind using a new classification scheme based on the location of the wind’s coronal source regions in the solar atmosphere and near-solar heliosphere. We first trace the solar wind measured by ACE/SWEPAM and SWICS from 1998 to 2011 at 1 au back to a 2.5R{sub s} solar surface using ballistic mapping at constant proton speed; then we map them back to their magnetic footpoints on the 1R{sub s} solar surface via the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Coronal structures are identified using a classification scheme based on the pixel brightness in the SOHO or STEREO EUV Carrington images. The angular distances between each mapped solar wind footpoint to the different coronal structure pixels are calculated and used as a criterion to identify the type of solar wind source region. Depending on the proximity of the solar wind footpoints to a given coronal or heliospheric structure, we classify the solar wind into six types: active region (AR), AR-boundary, quiet Sun (QS), coronal hole (CH), CH-boundary, and helmet-streamer associated wind. The in situ properties of these six types of solar winds are then examined and compared, and their solar cycle dependences are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗