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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Assessment of dynamic-screw-pinch-driven, current-scaled MagLIF target implosion performance using 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Analytic studies and two-dimensional “clean” radiation-magnetohydrodynamic (rad-MHD) simulations employing dynamical similarity driver-target scaling prescriptions [Ruiz et al., Phys. Plasmas 30, 032708 (2023)] suggest that Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) target implosions can scale to > 10 MJ DT fusion yields when peak drive current is increased beyond 60 MA. We present results from three-dimensional (3D) rad-MHD simulations of similarity-scaled MagLIF target implosions at peak drive currents ranging from 15 to 40 MA. Simulations in this study suggest that magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI) growth and feedthrough to the fuel region are more severe at higher drive current scales, which reduces the fusion yield compared to prior analytic and 2D clean simulation predictions. In contrast to standard MagLIF, simulations of current-scaled MagLIF target implosions driven by a dynamic screw pinch (DSP) demonstrate reduced MRTI feedthrough and greater fuel magnetization, resulting in improved thermonuclear performance and enhanced performance scaling with peak drive current. DSP drive enables additional scaling of the liner mass to increase liner radius but maintain implosion time, resulting in higher implosion velocities at the expense of increased susceptibility to MRTI. We present a current- and mass-scaled simulated DSP-MagLIF target implosion at the ∼ 40 MA peak current level that produces ignition scale performance, demonstrating a burn-averaged Lawson ignition parameter above unity and DT fusion yield above 1 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Differentiable Simulation of a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) are widely used in particle detection for their tracking and calorimetric capabilities. The particle physics community actively builds and improves high-quality simulators for such detectors in order to develop physics analyses in a realistic setting. The ability of these simulators to mimic real, measured data is limited by the modeling of the physical detectors used for data collection. This modeling can be improved by performing dedicated calibration measurements. Conventional approaches calibrate individual detector parameters or processes one at a time. However, the impact of detector processes is entangled, making this a poor description of the underlying physics. We introduce a differentiable simulator that enables a gradient-based optimization, allowing for the first time a simultaneous calibration of all detector parameters. We describe the procedure of making a differentiable simulator, highlighting the challenges of retaining the physics quality of the standard, non-differentiable version while providing meaningful gradient information. We further discuss the advantages and drawbacks of using our differentiable simulator for calibration. Finally, we provide a starting point for extensions to our approach, including applications of the differentiable simulator to physics analysis pipelines.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluating the Impact of Price-Responsive Load on Power Systems Using Integrated T&D Simulation

This paper explores the differences between simulating price-responsive load (PRL) interactions with power systems using integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) models and transmission-only (T-only) models. This analysis uses the Integrated Grid Modeling System (IGMS) software to capture 'ISO-to-appliance' simulations using a synthetic T&D model built on the PJM 5-Bus transmission network with multiple full-scale taxonomy feeders that include physics-based models of thousands of customers and PRLs. The results show important differences in the impacts of PRLs between integrated T&D and T-only models. Experiments with the synthetic integrated T&D dataset demonstrated that integrated T&D simulation revealed notably larger differences between the PRL and no-PRL cases for load, and prices compared to T-only simulation. Similarly, differences are observed between the price response of individual buildings and distribution feeders and the corresponding transmission bus in the integrated T&D simulations, which are difficult to capture in traditional T-only simulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inflow/outflow boundary conditions for particle-based blood flow simulations: Application to arterial bifurcations and trees

When blood flows through a bifurcation, red blood cells (RBCs) travel into side branches at different hematocrit levels, and it is even possible that all RBCs enter into one branch only, leading to a complete separation of plasma and R- BCs. To quantify this phenomenon via particle-based mesoscopic simulations, we developed a general framework for open boundary conditions in multiphase flows that is effective even for high hematocrit levels. The inflow at the inlet is duplicated from a fully developed flow generated in a pilot simulation with periodic boundary conditions. The outflow is controlled by adaptive forces to maintain the flow rate and velocity gradient at fixed values, while the particles leaving the arteriole at the outlet are removed from the system. Upon valida- tion of this approach, we performed systematic 3D simulations to study plasma skimming in arterioles of diameters 20 to 32 microns. For a flow rate ratio 6:1 at the branches, we observed the \all-or-nothing" phenomenon with plasma only entering the low flow rate branch. We then simulated blood-plasma separation in arteriolar bifurcations with different bifurcation angles and same diameter of the daughter branches. Our simulations predict a significant increase in RBC flux through the main daughter branch as the bifurcation angle is increased. Lastly, we demonstrated the new methodology for simulating blood flow in ves- sels with multiple inlets and outlets, constructed using an angiogenesis model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "A Hydrogeophysical Framework to Assess Infiltration During a Simulated Ecosystem-Scale Flooding Experiment”

This package contains the data and scripts used in "A hydrogeophysical framework to assess infiltration during a simulated ecosystem-scale flooding experiment" (Adebayo et al., 2023). The Geophysics folder contains two subfolders containing Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) datasets acquired between August 23 and August 26, 2021. The GPR subfolder contains raw data (Tempest_Project.GPZ) and processed results using the Sensors and Software EKKO Project software. The ERI subfolder contains two additional subfolders named Static and Timelapse. The Static subfolder contains background resistivity datasets acquired before infiltration, both raw and inverted results using the ResIpy code. The Timelapse subfolder contains repeated resistivity datasets acquired during infiltration on two profiles, along with raw and inverted results using the ResIpy code. The Flow model folder contains ATS model simulation files. The Geophysics-informed subfolder contains simulation datasets for two profiles generated using information from the geophysics data. The National_database-informed subfolder contains simulation datasets for two profiles generated using information from a national soil database. Each subfolder contains initial simulation results, multiple ensembles, and final simulation files. The Sensitivity_analysis folder contains the observation files exported from the flow model, notebooks used in running the code, and sensitivity analysis results showing the sensitivity of different parameters over a 48-hour period. We used mutual information-based global sensitivity analysis for the sensitivity analysis, following Jiang et al., 2022. This study shows a novel approach that integrates geophysical data with hydrological modeling to understand subsurface flow during coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing Upscaling Approach for Swarming Hydraulic Fractures Observed at Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site through Multiscale Simulations

We show that this work aims to address a challenge posed by recent observations of tightly spaced hydraulic fractures in core samples from the hydraulic fracturing test site (HFTS) in the Middle Wolfcamp Formation. Many fractures in retrieved cores have subfoot spacing, which is at odds with conventional models in which usually one hydraulic fracture is initiated per cluster. Models assuming a single fracture at each cluster, although a common practice, often predict excessive fracture propagation that is inconsistent with microseismic observation. Here, we aim to develop a numerical approach to effectively account for densely spaced hydraulic fractures in field-scale simulations. Because it is impractical to explicitly model all aforementioned fractures, we develop a new upscaling law that enables existing simulation tools to predict reservoir response to fracture swarms. The upscaling law is derived based on an energy equivalence argument and validated through multiscale simulations using a high-fidelity code, GEOS. The swarming fractures are first modeled with a spacing that is much smaller than the cluster spacing; these fractures are then approximated by an upscaled, single fracture based on the proposed upscaling law. The upscaled fracture is shown to successfully match the energy input rate and produce the total fracture aperture and average propagation length of the explicitly simulated swarm. Afterward, the upscaling approach is further implemented in 3D field-scale simulations and validated against the HFTS microseismic data of a horizontal well. Our results show that hydraulic fracture swarming can significantly affect fracture propagation behaviors compared with the propagation of single fractures as assumed by conventional modeling approaches. Under the considered situations, the conventional treatment yields fast propagation speed that far exceeds that indicated by the microseismic data. We also illustrate that this discrepancy can be reduced readily through the implementation of the upscaling law. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for the fracture swarming effect in field-scale simulations and the efficacy of this approach to enable realistic predictions of reservoir responses to fracture swarms, without the need to model tightly spaced fractures individually.

02 PETROLEUM↗

GRIZZLY Model of Multi-Reactive Species Diffusion, Moisture/Heat Transfer and Alkali-Silica Reaction for Simulating Concrete Aging and Degradation

Concrete is widely used in the construction of nuclear facilities because of its structural strength and its ability to shield radiation. The use of concrete in nuclear power plants for containment and shielding of radiation and radioactive materials has made its performance crucial for the safe operation of the facility. As such, when life extension is considered for nuclear power plants, it is critical to have accurate and reliable predictive tools to address concerns related to various aging processes of concrete structures and the capacity of structures subjected to age-related degradation. The goal of this report is to document the progress of the development and implementation of a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical model in GRIZZLY code with the ultimate goal to reliably simulate and predict long-term performance and response of aged NPP concrete structures subjected to a number of aging mechanisms including external chemical attacks and volume-changing chemical reactions within concrete structures induced by alkali-silica reactions and long-term exposure to irradiation. Based on a number of survey reports of concrete aging mechanisms relevant to nuclear power plants and recommendations from researchers in concrete community, we’ve implemented three modules during FY15 in GRIZZLY code, (1) multi-species reactive diffusion model within cement materials; (2) coupled moisture and heat transfer model in concrete; and (3) anisotropic, stress-dependent, alkali-silica reaction induced swelling model. The multi-species reactive diffusion model was implemented with the objective to model aging of concrete structures subjected to aggressive external chemical attacks (e.g., chloride attack, sulfate attack, etc.). It considers multiple processes relevant to external chemical attacks such as diffusion of ions in aqueous phase within pore spaces, equilibrium chemical speciation reactions and kinetic mineral dissolution/precipitation. The moisture/heat transfer module was implemented to simulate long-term spatial and temporal evolutions of the moisture and temperature fields within concrete structures at both room and elevated temperatures. The ASR swelling model implemented in GRIZZLY code can simulate anisotropic expansions of ASR gel under either uniaxial, biaxial and triaxial stress states, and can be run simultaneously with the moisture/heat transfer model and coupled with various elastic/inelastic solid mechanics models that were implemented in GRIZZLY code previously. This report provides detailed descriptions of the governing equations, constitutive equations and numerical algorithms of the three modules implemented in GRIZZLY during FY15, simulation results of example problems and model validation results by comparing simulations with available experimental data reported in the literature. The close match between the experiments and simulations clearly demonstrate the potential of GRIZZLY code for reliable evaluation and prediction of long-term performance and response of aged concrete structures in nuclear power plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

ADDGALS: Simulated Sky Catalogs for Wide Field Galaxy Surveys

Abstract We present a method for creating simulated galaxy catalogs with realistic galaxy luminosities, broadband colors, and projected clustering over large cosmic volumes. The technique, denoted Addgals (Adding Density Dependent GAlaxies to Lightcone Simulations), uses an empirical approach to place galaxies within lightcone outputs of cosmological simulations. It can be applied to significantly lower-resolution simulations than those required for commonly used methods such as halo occupation distributions, subhalo abundance matching, and semi-analytic models, while still accurately reproducing projected galaxy clustering statistics down to scales of r ∼ 100 h −1 kpc . We show that Addgals catalogs reproduce several statistical properties of the galaxy distribution as measured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) main galaxy sample, including galaxy number densities, observed magnitude and color distributions, as well as luminosity- and color-dependent clustering. We also compare to cluster–galaxy cross correlations, where we find significant discrepancies with measurements from SDSS that are likely linked to artificial subhalo disruption in the simulations. Applications of this model to simulations of deep wide-area photometric surveys, including modeling weak-lensing statistics, photometric redshifts, and galaxy cluster finding, are presented in DeRose et al., and an application to a full cosmology analysis of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 like data is presented in DeRose et al. We plan to publicly release a 10,313 square degree catalog constructed using Addgals with magnitudes appropriate for several existing and planned surveys, including SDSS, DES, VISTA, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, and Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Subsetted model output for aerosol-related variables from a LASSO-CACTI WRF simulation

Aerosol-related model output from a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) deep-convection scenario for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. The LASSO-CACTI simulations span grid spacings from 7.5 km to 100 m through the use of four nested domains, labeled d1 through d4. The simulations are of convection near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range, roughly centered on the ARM Mobile Facility. More information can be found at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso. This version of the output is a collection of variables subsetted from the raw WRF output to reduce the file overhead for users not needing the full raw dataset. The subset files are in netCDF format with the height-based variables on the raw, model eta levels. The aerosol properties are consistent with the Thompson aerosol-aware cloud microphysics scheme where the simulated aerosol are proxies for representative “water friendly” and “ice friendly” aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subsetted model output for static variables from a LASSO-CACTI WRF simulation

Static model output from a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) deep-convection scenario for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. The LASSO-CACTI simulations span grid spacings from 7.5 km to 100 m through the use of four nested domains, labeled d1 through d4. The simulations are of convection near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range, roughly centered on the ARM Mobile Facility. More information can be found at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso. This version of the output is a collection of variables subsetted from the raw WRF output to reduce the file overhead for users not needing the full raw dataset. The subset files are in netCDF format with the height-based variables on the raw, model eta and soil levels. The variables in this file are ones that do not change during a simulation, such as the terrain height and map-scale factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An agent-based framework for fuel cycle simulation with recycling

Simulation of the nuclear fuel cycle is an established field with multiple players. Prior development work has utilized techniques such as system dynamics to provide a solution structure for the matching of supply and demand in these simulations. In general, however, simulation infrastructure development has occurred in relatively closed circles, each effort having unique considerations as to the cases which are desired to be modeled. Accordingly, individual simulators tend to have their design decisions driven by specific use cases. Presented in this work is a proposed supply and demand matching algorithm that leverages the techniques of the well-studied field of mathematical programming. A generic approach is achieved by treating facilities as individual entities and actors in the supply-demand market which denote preferences amongst commodities. Using such a framework allows for varying levels of interaction fidelity, ranging from low-fidelity, quick solutions to high-fidelity solutions that model individual transactions (e.g. at the fuel-assembly level). The power of the technique is that it allows such flexibility while still treating the problem in a generic manner, encapsulating simulation engine design decisions in such a way that future simulation requirements can be relatively easily added when needed. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Updating a PWR Simulator in Python

A nuclear reactor is a complicated system that is comprised of many systems and components. In order to fully model a reactor, several approximations and correlations must be used for a real-time simulation. In 1984 as part of a doctoral dissertation at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), a FORTRAN 77 program was developed to simulate a four-loop, Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR). The program was later called PRISM and extended to include a comprehensive set of features accessible in a DOS-based user interface. This present work seeks to update the original PRISM program for cross platform deployment using the Python language. The goal of this present work is to update and improve a teaching tool for both students and reactor operators. Originally, PRISM was created as part of a PhD project in FORTRAN 77, but the code no longer works readily on modern operating systems. Python was chosen to rewrite the program because of the ease of use of the Python modules including Kivy as well as the portability of the program to various operating systems. This project aims to develop desktop and mobile versions of the software, allowing the user flexibility in choice of platform. This simulator is scheduled to be deployed in time for a live demonstration at the 2016 Annual ANS meeting. The project aims to produce a reactor simulator that will showcase the dynamics of a PWR system in real-time under various conditions. Some potential scenarios include startup conditions, scram operations, or failure conditions such as a break in a coolant leg. The user will be able to induce various failure scenarios and the program will simulate how the reactor will behave. The simulation will include a suite of monitoring functions that will allow automatic systems to attempt to adapt to the changing conditions, e.g., control rod movement. This program will provide an educational resource for anyone learning about nuclear reactor kinetics or dynamics of a reactor system. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evaluation of tropical channel refinement using MPAS‐A aquaplanet simulations

Abstract Climate models with variable‐resolution grids offer a computationally less expensive way to provide more detailed information and increased accuracy by resolving processes that cannot be adequately represented by a coarser grid. This study uses the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A), consisting of a nonhydrostatic dynamical core and a subset of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model physics, to investigate the potential benefits of using tropical channel refinement. The simulations are performed with an idealized aquaplanet configuration using 30 and 240 km global grid spacing, and two variable‐resolution grids spanning the same grid spacing range; one with a narrow (20°S–20°N) and one with a wide (30°S–30°N) tropical channel refinement. Increasing resolution in the tropics impacts both the tropical and extratropical circulation. Compared to the 30 km global grid, both refined channel simulations exhibit slightly stronger updrafts inside the Hadley cell resulting in more resolved precipitation. Using a wider tropical refinement leads to a closer correspondence with the global high‐resolution grid. While different grid spacings produce similar cloud size distributions that are consistent with observations, the dependence of precipitation rate on cloud size varies among simulations. The refined channel simulations show improved tropical and extratropical precipitation relative to the global coarse simulation. All simulations show a single precipitation peak centered on the equator. Although the results show that tropical refinement is an effective method for avoiding artifacts due to grid resolution sensitivities seen in earlier studies that only refined a portion of the tropics, some biases remain well inside of the refinement region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of (not-historical) large-event near-fault ground-motion simulations for use in civil engineering applications

Ground-motion simulations generated from physics-based wave propagation models are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform the performance-based design and assessment of infrastructure residing in active seismic areas. A key prerequisite before the ground-motion simulations can be used with confidence for application in engineering domains is their comprehensive and rigorous investigation and validation. This article provides a four-step methodology and acceptance criteria to assess the reliability of simulated ground motions of not historical events, which includes (1) the selection of a population of real records consistent with the simulated scenarios, (2) the comparison of the distribution of Intensity Measures (IMs) from the simulated records, real records, and Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) the comparison of the distribution of simple proxies for building response, and (4) the comparison of the distribution of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for a realistic model of a structure. Specific focus is laid on near-field ground motions (<10km) from large earthquakes (M w 7), for which the database of real records for potential use in engineering applications is severely limited. The methodology is demonstrated through comparison of (2490) near-field synthetic records with 5 Hz resolution generated from the Pitarka et al (2019) kinematic rupture model with a population of (38) pulse-like near-field real records from multiple events and, when applicable, with NGA-W2 GMPEs. Lastly, the proposed procedure provides an effective method for informing and advancing the science needed to generate realistic ground-motion simulations, and for building confidence in their use in engineering domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improved NLDAS-2 Noah-simulated Hydrometeorological Products with an Interim Run

In NLDAS-2 Noah simulation, the NLDAS team introduced an intermediate fix suggested by Slater et al. (2007) and Livneh et al. (2010) to reduce large sublimation. The fix is used to constraint surface exchange coefficient (CH) using CH =CHoriginal x max (1.0-RiB/0.5, 0.05) when atmospheric boundary layer is stable. RiB is Richardson number. In NLDAS-2 Noah version, this fix was used for all stable cases including snow-free grid cells. In this study, we simply applied this fix to the grid cells in which both stable atmospheric boundary layer and snow exist simultaneously excluding the snow-free grid cells as we recognize that the fix constraint in NLDAS-2 is too strong. We make a 31-year (1979-2009) Noah NLDAS-2 interim (NoahI) run. We use observed streamflow, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, soil temperature, and ground heat flux to evaluate the results simulated from NoahI and make the reasonable comparison with those simulated from NLDAS-2 Noah (Xia et al., 2012). The results show that NoahI has the same performance as Noah does for snow water equivalent simulation. However, NoahI significantly improved the other hydrometeorological products’ simulation as described above when compared to Noah and the observations. This simple modification is being installed to the next Noah version. The hydrometeorological products simulated from NoahI will be staged on NCEP public server for the public in future.

hydrometeorological↗

Ingrained: An Automated Framework for Fusing Atomic-Scale Image Simulations into Experiments

To fully leverage the power of image simulation to corroborate and explain patterns and structures in atomic resolution microscopy, an initial correspondence between the simulation and experimental image must be established at the outset of further high accuracy simulations or calculations. Furthermore, if simulation is to be used in context of highly automated processes or high-throughput optimization, the process of finding this correspondence itself must be automated. In this work, "ingrained," an open-source automation framework which solves for this correspondence and fuses atomic resolution image simulations into the experimental images to which they correspond, is introduced. Here, the overall "ingrained" workflow, focusing on its application to interface structure approximations, and the development of an experimentally rationalized forward model for scanning tunneling microscopy simulation are described.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pore-Scale Simulation of Intragranular Diffusion: Effects of Incomplete Mixing on Macroscopic Manifestations

Diffusive mass transfer into and out of intragranular micropores ("intragranular diffusion") plays an important role in the large-scale transport of some groundwater contaminants. We are interested in understanding the combined effect of pore-scale advection and intragranular diffusion on solute transport at the effective porous medium scale. To study this problem, we have developed a three-dimensional pore-scale model of fluid flow and solute transport that incorporates diffusion into and out of intragranular pore spaces. Our model is based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulation method, which represents fluid and solid phases by a mesh-free particle discretization. In the pore spaces, fluid flow is simulated by discretizing the Navier-Stokes equations using the SPH approach. Solute transport is represented by advection, diffusion within the fluid phase, and diffusion between the fluid and solid phases. Our model is implemented on large-scale parallel computing hardware, allowing us to simulate millions of computational particles and represent fully three-dimensional systems of pores and grains with arbitrarily complex physical geometry. We have used this model system to perform numerical experiments using various model porous media systems, which allows us to draw comparisons between macroscopic measures computed from the pore-scale simulations (such as breakthrough curves) and those predicted by macroscopic formulations that assume complete mixing over the representative volume. In this paper we present results of 3D simulations of pore-scale flow and transport, including cases with and without intragranular diffusion, in two model porous media, one with randomly-packed uniform spherical grains and a second with randomly-packed spheres drawn from a binary grain size distribution. Breakthrough curves were computed from the 3D simulations at various transport distances. Comparable breakthrough curves were computed using 1D macroscopic models with parameters determined independently to the degree possible. Based on comparisons of the pore-scale and macroscopic model results, we draw two primary conclusions. First, non-Fickian behavior is persistent and ubiquitous at the scales considered, and most cases are better represented by a multi-rate mass transfer model even when there is no distinct secondary porosity (i.e., no intragranular diffusion). This suggests that diffusive mass transfer processes between preferential flow paths and relatively immobile zones within the primary porosity may have significant impact on transport, particular in low-concentration tails. Second, the application of mass transfer rate parameters based on an assumption of well-mixed concentrations at the pore-scale tend to overestimate the amount of mass transfer that occurs in heterogeneous pore geometries in which preferential flow leads to incomplete pore-scale lateral mixing.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved. The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗