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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Predicting Future Disease Burden in a Rapidly Changing Climate

The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asynchronous Ballistic Reversible Computing using Superconducting elements

Computing uses energy. At the bare minimum, erasing information in a computer increases the entropy. Landauer has calculated %7E k B T log(2) Joules is dissipated per bit of energy erased. While the success of Moores law has allowed increasing computing power and efficiency for many years, these improvements are coming to an end. This project asks if there is a way to continue those gains by circumventing Landauer through reversible computing. We explore a new reversible computing paradigm, asynchronous ballistic reversible computing or ABRC. The ballistic nature of data in ABRC matches well with superconductivity which provides a low-loss environment and a quantized bit encoding the fluxon. We discuss both these and our development of a superconducting fabrication process at Sandia. We describe a fully reversible 1-bit memory cell based on fluxon dynamics. Building on this model, we propose several other gates which may also offer reversible operation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Quantum Analog Coprocessor for Correlated Electron Systems Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is an approach for studying physical systems that might otherwise be computationally intractable to simulate on classical high-performance computing (HPC) systems. The key idea behind analog quantum simulation is the realization of a physical system with a low-energy effective Hamiltonian that is the same as the low-energy effective Hamiltonian of some target system to be studied. Purpose-built nanoelectronic devices are a natural candidate for implementing the analog quantum simulation of strongly correlated materials that are otherwise challenging to study using classical HPC systems. However, realizing devices that are sufficiently large to study the properties of a non-trivial material system (e.g., those described by a Fermi-Hubbard model) will eventually require the fabrication, control, and measurement of at least 0(10) quantum dots, or other engineered quantum impurities. As a step toward large-scale analog or digital quantum simulation platforms based on nanoelectronic devices, we propose a new approach to analog quantum simulation that makes use of the large Hilbert space dimension of the electronic baths that are used to adjust the occupancy of one or a few engineered quantum impurities. This approach to analog quantum simulation allows us to study a wide array of quantum impurity models. We can further augment the computational power of such an approach by combining it with a classical computer to facilitate dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations. DMFT replaces the solution of a lattice impurity problem with the solution of a family of localized impurity problems with bath couplings that are adjusted to satisfy a self-consistency condition between the two models. In DMFT, the computationally challenging task is the high-accuracy solution of an instance of a quantum impurity model that is determined self-consistently in coordination with a mean-field calculation. We propose using one or a few engineered quantum impurities with adjustable couplings to baths to realize an analog quantum coprocessor that effects the solution of such a model through measurements of a physical quantum impurity, operating in coordination with a classical computer to achieve a self-consistent solution to a DMFT calculation. We focus on implementation details relevant to a number of technologies for which Sandia has design, fabrication, and measurement expertise. The primary technical advances outlined in this report concern the development of a supporting modeling capability. As with all analog quantum simulation platforms, the successful design and operation of individual devices depends critically on one's ability to predict the effective low-energy Hamiltonian governing its dynamics Our project has made this possible and lays the foundation for future experimental implementations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Pitch Variation Experiments in Water-Moderated Square-Pitched U(6.90)O 2 Fuel Rod Lattices with Fuel to Water Volume Ratios Spanning 0.08 to 0.67

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Research Initiative funded the design and construction of the Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) at Sandia National Laboratories. The start-up of the experiment facility and the execution of the experiments described here were funded by the DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program. The 7uPCX is designed to investigate critical systems with fuel for light water reactors in the enrichment range above 5 % 235 U. The 7uPCX assembly is a water-moderated and -reflected array of aluminum-clad square-pitched U(6.90 %)O 2 fuel rods. Other critical experiments performed in the 7uPCX assembly are documented in LEU-COMP-THERM-078, LEU-COMP-THERM-080, LEU-COMPTHERM- 096, LEU-COMP-THERM-097, and LEU-COMP-THERM-101. The fuel used in these experiments was fabricated using unirradiated 6.90 % enriched UO 2 fuel pellets from fuel elements designed to be used in the internal nuclear superheater section of the Pathfinder boiling water reactor operated in South Dakota by the Northern States Power Company in the 1960s. The fuel elements were obtained from The Pennsylvania State University where they had been stored for many years. The fuel pellets in those fuel elements were removed from the original Incoloy cladding and reclad in 3003 aluminum tubes and end caps for use in the experiments reported here. The purpose of these experiments was to measure the effects of decreasing the fuel-to-water volume ratio on the critical array size. This was accomplished by removing fuel rods from fully fueled configurations, effectively increasing the pitch of the fuel arrays in the assembly. The fuel rod pitch variations provided assembly configurations that ranged from strongly undermoderated to slightly overmoderated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bioscience COVID Rapid Response Report

The COVID-19 disease outbreak and its impact on global health and economies have highlighted the national security threat posed by pathogens with pandemic potential and the need for rapid development of effective diagnostics and medical countermeasures. The Bioscience IA selected for funding rapid COVID LDRD project proposals that addressed critical R&D gaps in pandemic response that could be accomplished in 1-3 months with the requested funding. In total, the Bioscience IA funded nine rapid projects that addressed 1) rapid and accurate methods for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, 2) modeling tools to help prioritize populations for diagnostic testing, 3) bioinformatic tools to track SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence changes over time, 4) molecular inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 cellular infection, and 5) method for rapid staging of COVID19 disease to enable administration of more effective treatments. In addition, LDRD funded one larger project to be completed in FY21 that leverages Sandia capabilities to address the need for platform diagnostics and therapeutics that can be rapidly tailored against emerging pathogen targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnosing and Destroying Non-Markovian Noise

Nearly every protocol used to analyze the performance of quantum information processors is based on an assumption that the errors experienced by the device during logical operations are constant in time and are insensitive to external contexts. This assumption is pervasive, rarely stated, and almost always wrong. Quantum devices that do behave this way are termed "Markovian:' but nearly every system we have ever probed has displayed drift or crosstalk or memory effects they are all non-Markovian. Strong non-Markovianity introduces spurious effects in characterization protocols and violates assumptions of the fault-tolerance threshold theorems. This SAND report details a three year laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) project entitled, "Diagnosing and Destroying non-Markovian Noise in Quantum Information Processors." This program was initiated to build tools to study non-Markovian dynamics and quantum systems and develop robust methodologies for eliminating it. The program achieved a number of notable successes, including the first statistically rigorous protocol for identifying and characterizing drift in quantum systems, a formalism for modeling memory effects in quantum devices, and the successful suppression of drift in a Sandia trapped-ion quantum processor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework.

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST ''Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment'' (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, ''GDSA Framework'', for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. ''GDSA Framework'' is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-20SN01030403) level 3 milestone — ''Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework'' (M3SF-20SN010304032). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY20, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of ''GDSA Framework''. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF- 2051\101030404), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-2051\101030405), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-20SN01030406). This report builds on developments reported in previous ''GDSA Framework'' milestones, particularly M2SF- 19SNO1030403.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Noise Erasure in Quantum-Limited Current Amplifiers

Superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs) are extraordinarily sensitive to magnetic flux and thus make excellent current amplifiers for cryogenic applications. One such application of high interest to Sandia is the set-up and state read-out of quantum dot based qubits, where a qubit state is read out from a short current pulse (microseconds to milliseconds long) of approximately 100 pA, a signal that is easily corrupted by noise in the environment. A Parametric SQUID Amplifier can be high bandwidth (in the GHz range), low power dissipation (less than 1pW), and can be easily incorporated into multi-qubit systems. In this SAIL LDRD, we will characterize the noise performance of the parametric amplifier front end -- the SQUID -- in an architecture specific to current readout for spin qubits. Noise is a key metric in amplification, and identifying noise sources will allow us to optimize the system to reduce its effects, resulting in higher fidelity readout. This effort represents a critical step in creating the building blocks of a high speed, low power, parametric SQUID current amplifier that will be needed in the near term as quantum systems with many qubits begin to come on line in the next few years.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (Version 3.0 Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computationally and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 3.0. HyRAM 3.0 includes the new ability to model cryogenic hydrogen releases from liquid hydrogen systems, using a different property calculation method and different equations of state. Other changes include modifications to the ignition probability calculations, component leak frequency calculations, and addition of default impulse data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Pre Symptomatic COVID Screening

Temperature checks for fever are extensively used for preliminary COVID screenings but are ineffective during the incubation stage of infection when a person is asymptotic. Researchers at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control concluded that approximately 75% of passengers infected with COVID-19 and traveling from affected Chinese cities would not be detected by early screening. Core body temperature is normally kept within a narrow range and has the smallest relative standard deviation of all vital signs. Heat in the body is prioritized around internal organs at the expense of the periphery by controlling blood flow. In fact, blood flow to the skin may vary by a factor of 100 depending on thermal conditions. This adaptation causes rapid temperature fluctuations in different skin regions from changes in cardiac output, metabolism, and likely cytokine diffusion during inflammation that would not be seen in average core body temperature. Current IR and thermal scanners used for temperature checks are not necessarily reflective of core body temperatures and require cautious interpretation as they frequently result in false positive and false negative diagnosis. Hand held thermometers measure average skin temperatures and can get readings that differ from core body temperature by as much as 7°. Rather than focusing on a core body temperature threshold assessment we believe that variability of temperature patterns using a novel wearable transdermal microneedle sensor will be more sensitive to infections in the incubation stage and propose to develop a wearable transdermal temperature sensor using established Sandia microneedle technology for pre symptomatic COVID screening that can additionally be used to monitor disease progression at later stages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Combined Environments: Driving multiple loads on Z

Pulsed power drivers such as the Z generator of Sandia National Laboratories typically deliver high current (>20MA) to single experiments. This project is intended to develop and assess ways to simultaneously drive multiple targets on a single pulsed power driver (specifically a neutron and an x-ray producing target driven in a single experiment). The combined x-ray/neutron environment produced will then be used to investigate potential synergistic effects in integrated circuits. A pre-requisite for being able to design and study multiple targets on Z is first adapting simulation tools to be able to model them effectively. This will enable us to assess the tradeoffs between the different ways multiple targets can be combined, and to better understand how existing and future pulsed power machines can be used to generate combined testing environments. This report is limited to documenting the initial development of a parallel load modeling capability that is presently being applied to design experiments to produce combined neutron/x-ray environments on Z.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Introduction to InterSpec for Gamma-Ray Analysis [Slides]

InterSpec is a spectrum viewing and analysis tool that can be used for nuclide identification and quantification. Developed at Sandia National Laboratories, it is open source and can be obtained at: https://github.com/sandialabs/interspec/releases. These slides do not cover nuclide quantification and only touch on nuclide identification (ID).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2020

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researchers to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories. Participants conduct leading-edge research, interact with scientists and engineers at the laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, adaptivity and mesh refinement, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, data-intensive computing, environments for scalable computing, parallel input/output, advanced architectures, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and typically includes the organization of a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings. In 2020, the CSRI summer program was executed completely virtually; all student interns worked from home, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Empirical Formula for Puncture Energy of Flat Metal Plates by a Cylindrical Flat Punch

Impact problems of plate-like parts by punch-like objects with relatively large mass moving at slow speeds of a few feet per second constitute a subset of impact problems of interest at Sandia. This is in contrast to small objects moving in the range of hundreds or thousands of feet per second or higher. The objective of this work is to develop a simple formula that can be used to estimate a lower bound for the puncture energy of metal plates impacted by cylindrical, essentially rigid punches of circular cross-section and at nose. Such geometry is used as a basis in the design of puncture mitigation barriers or procedures. This was accomplished by deriving an expression using non-dimensional analysis and then calibrating it based on tests results in the range of speeds of interest. Lower bounds can then be determined based on confidence intervals or factors of safety.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SNF Interim Storage Canister Corrosion and Surface Environment Investigations (FY2020 Status Report)

This progress report describes work performed during FY20 at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to assess the localized corrosion performance of container/cask materials used in the interim storage of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Of particular concern is stress corrosion cracking (SCC), by which a through-wall crack could potentially form in a canister outer wall over time intervals that are shorter than possible dry storage times. Work in FY20 further defined our understanding of the potential chemical and physical environment present on canister surfaces, evaluated the relationship between the environment and the resultant corrosion that occurs, and initiated crack growth rate testing under relevant environmental conditions. In FY20, work to define dry storage canister surface environments included several tasks. First, collection of dust deposition specimens from independent spent fuel storage installation (ISFSI) site locations helped to establish a more complete understanding of the potential chemical environment formed on the canister. Second, the predicted evolution of canister surface relative humidity RH) values was estimated using ISFSI site weather data and the horizontal canister thermal model used by the SNL probabilistic SCC model. These calculations determined that for typical ISFSI weather conditions, seasalt deliquescence to produce MgCl2-rich brines could occur in less than 20 years at the coolest locations on the canister surface, and, even after nearly 300 years, conditions for NaCl deliquescence (75% RH) are not reached. This work illustrates the importance of understanding the stability of MgCl2-rich brines on the heated canister surface, and the potential impact of brine composition on corrosion processes, including pitting and stress corrosion cracking. In an additional study, the description of the canister surface environment was refined in order to define more realistic corrosion testing environments including diurnal cycles, soluble salt chemistries, and inert mineral particles. The potential impacts of these phenomena on canister corrosion are being evaluated experimentally. Finally, work over the past few years to evaluate the stability of magnesium chloride brines continued in FY20. MgCl2 degassing experiments were carried out, confirming that MgCl2 brines slowly degas HCl on heated surfaces, converting to less deliquescent magnesium hydroxychloride phases and potentially leading to brine dryout.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2021 Stewardship Science Academic Programs Annual

I am a staff scientist at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). I work on multiple fundamental-science projects and lead modeling/data-analysis for the stellar opacity experiments. I also work with theorists to refine plasma material-property calculations to make NNSA simulations more predictable. These are challenging and important problems for national security. In fact, our experiments raised questions about “opacity”, the property of matter that controls energy transport inside stars. This work was published by Nature due to its serious implication over broad applications, and our team received NNSA Defense Program Award of Excellence, both in 2015. Work at SNL is collegial and full of learning through interactions with the world’s finest experimentalists and theorists. When I started my Ph.D. program, working at a national lab was a dream position. Today, I collaborate with top scientists to solve mission-critical problems. The Stewardship Science Academic Programs (SSAP) and National Laser Users’ Facility (NLUF) played a vital role in the efficient learning and seamless transition to SNL.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗