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A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validating quantum-classical programming models with tensor network simulations

The exploration of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms and programming models on noisy near-term quantum hardware has begun. As hybrid programs scale towards classical intractability, validation and benchmarking are critical to understanding the utility of the hybrid computational model. In this paper, we demonstrate a newly developed quantum circuit simulator based on tensor network theory that enables intermediate-scale verification and validation of hybrid quantum-classical computing frameworks and programming models. We present our tensor-network quantum virtual machine (TNQVM) simulator which stores a multi-qubit wavefunction in a compressed (factorized) form as a matrix product state, thus enabling single-node simulations of larger qubit registers, as compared to brute-force statevector simulators. Our simulator is designed to be extensible in both the tensor network form and the classical hardware used to run the simulation (multicore, GPU, distributed). The extensibility of the TNQVM simulator with respect to the simulation hardware type is achieved via a pluggable interface for different numerical backends (e.g., ITensor and ExaTENSOR numerical libraries). We demonstrate the utility of our TNQVM quantum circuit simulator through the verification of randomized quantum circuits and the variational quantum eigensolver algorithm, both expressed within the eXtreme-scale ACCelerator (XACC) programming model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ELM model simulations of Plum Island Ecosystems LTER low marsh site 2018-2020

Model simulations using the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) with improved capabilities to represent vegetation response to salinity and inundation. The simulations were conducted for a tidal salt marsh at Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site near Rowley, Massachusetts, USA; the site is a low marsh dominated by Spartina alterniflora. The model was forced with site-specific meteorology, salinity and tidal cycles from 2018-2020. Four sets of model simulations are included and described below:1. Parameterization of the salinity response function. These simulations tested different combinations of values for optimal salinity and salinity tolerance.2. Model evaluation. This comparison conducted simulations using the default model, the salinity function only, the submergence function only, and both the salinity and submergence functions. 3. Salinity scenarios. These simulations used the 2018 salinity input data varied by -5 to +10 ppt salinity.4. Water level scenarios. These simulations used the tide height varied by -10 to +50 cm. These simulations were used to demonstrate how the salinity and submergence functions better represent carbon uptake by tidal salt marshes.The data package includes netCDF files used as forcing files for tide height and salinity, one for each year 2018-2020 at observed salinity concentrations, and an additional three forcing files in which salinity concentrations were varied 5 ppt lower, 5 ppt higher, and 10 ppt higher than the measured 2018 time series. Also included are python scripts for creating forcing files, plain text parameter and command files for running simulations, model outputs in netCDF format, and python scripts for visualizing outputs. Code for the modified E3SM model is archived in Sulman et al 2023 at doi:10.15485/1991625. More detail about files is provided in the README.md file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FATES size- and age-dependent mortality simulation output analysis scripts

This dataset contains python scripts to analyse outputs from the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and accompanies the paper “Needham, J.F., Chambers, J., Fisher, R., Knox, R., and Koven, C. D., Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality, 2020, Global Change Biology”. These scripts process FATES outputs from size- and age-dependent mortality simulations which were run to test the effect of different mechanisms of mortality on forest response to elevated CO2 (eCO2). Specifically, these scripts will process single plant functional type (PFT) simulations in which mortality is either a constant background rate, size-dependent or age-dependent. In each case, a simulation with constant woody NPP is compared to a simulation in which woody NPP increases by 25% to simulate the growth response of forests to eCO2. In addition, the data package contains scripts to analyse ensemble simulations with size- and age-dependent mortality and two PFTs, that were run to test the impact of different demographic rates on coexistence and the forest response to eCO2. Finally, the dataset includes scripts for processing simulations testing the sensitivity of results to allometry and to the recruitment scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FATES size- and age-dependent mortality simulation outputs, 2019

This dataset contains outputs from the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and accompanies the paper “Needham, J.F., Chambers, J., Fisher, R., Knox, R., and Koven, C. D., Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality, 2020, Global Change Biology”. Data are unprocessed FATES outputs from size- and age-dependent mortality simulations which were run to test the effect of different mechanisms of mortality on forest response to elevated CO2 (eCO2). Specifically, this data package contains single plant functional type (PFT) simulations in which mortality is either a constant background rate, size-dependent or age-dependent. In each case, a simulation with constant woody NPP is compared to a simulation in which woody NPP increases by 25% to simulate the growth response of forests to eCO2. Ensemble simulations with size- and age-dependent mortality and two PFTs test the impact of different demographic rates on coexistence and the forest response to eCO2. Finally, the dataset includes simulations testing the sensitivity of results to allometry and to the recruitment scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FATES crown damage simulation outputs 2022

This dataset contains outputs from the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and accompanies the paper "Needham, J.F., Arellano, A., Davies, S.J., Fisher, R.A., Hammer, V., Knox, R., Mitre, D., Muller-Landau, H.C., Zuleta, D., Koven, C.D. Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest, 2022, Global Change Biology". Data are unprocessed netcdf file outputs from simulations that were run to test the effect of a new crown damage module in FATES. Specifically, this data package contains a sensitivity analysis to the carbon cushion parameter damage_Ccushion_ensemble_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.h0.ensemble.sofar.nc, a sensitivity analysis to the root nitrogen stoichiometry parameter damage_Nstoich_ensemble_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.h0.ensemble.sofar.nc, a sensitivity analysis to parameters controlling crown damage and recovery damage_recovery_ensemble_e1b5bd9_354f0b0_2021-09-02.h0.ensemble.sofar.nc, and a sensitivity analysis to the number of crown damage bins elm_fates_bci_*_damagebins.Eac53ccb80b-F8f994c29.2022-04-19.elm.h0.fullrun.nc. This data package also contains a high root nitrogen configuration of FATES, including both a control, and a crown damage simulation high_root_N_control_e1b5bd9_354f0b0_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc and high_root_N_damage_e1b5bd9_354f0b0_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc. There is an analogous low root nitrogen configuration of FATES, including a control, low_root_N_control_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc a damage only simulation low_root_N_damageonly_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc, a damage plus mortality simulation low_root_N_damage_mort_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc, and a mortality only simulation low_root_N_mort_only_e1b5bd9_ef845c8_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc. Finally, there is a two PFT simulation in which we test the effect of recovery on competitive dynamics, low_root_N_damage_two_pfts_stoichastic_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-10.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc. These simulations test the effect of representing crown damage in FATES, compared with simulations that have an equivalent increase in mortality. Jupyter notebooks to analyse these files can be found at https://github.com/JessicaNeedham/Needham_etal_GCB_2022_FATES_crown_damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding and Improving CRM and GCM Simulations of Cloud Systems with ARM Observations

The works supported by this ASR project lay the solid foundation for improving the parameterization of convection and clouds in the NCAR CCSM and the climate simulations. We have made a significant use of CRM simulations and ARM observations to produce thermodynamically and dynamically consistent multi-year cloud and radiative properties; improve the GCM simulations of convection, clouds and radiative heating rate and fluxes using the ARM observations and CRM simulations; and understand the seasonal and annual variation of cloud systems and their impacts on climate mean state and variability. We conducted multi-year simulations over the ARM SGP site using the CRM with multi-year ARM forcing data. The statistics of cloud and radiative properties from the long-term CRM simulations were compared and validated with the ARM measurements and value added products (VAP). We evaluated the multi-year climate simulations produced by the GCM with the modified convection scheme. We used multi-year ARM observations and CRM simulations to validate and further improve the trigger condition and revised closure assumption in NCAR GCM simulations that demonstrate the improvement of climate mean state and variability. We combined the improved convection scheme with the mosaic treatment of subgrid cloud distributions in the radiation scheme of the GCM. The mosaic treatment of cloud distributions has been implemented in the GCM with the original convection scheme and enables the use of more realistic cloud amounts as well as cloud water contents in producing net radiative fluxes closer to observations. A physics-based latent heat (LH) retrieval algorithm was developed by parameterizing the physical linkages of observed hydrometeor profiles of cloud and precipitation to the major processes related to the phase change of atmospheric water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Annual Report: Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) (30 September 2013)

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that is developing and deploying state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models, with uncertainty quantification (UQ), optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset incorporates commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and is also developing new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. Ultimately, the CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. CCSI is led by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and leverages the Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories’ core strengths in modeling and simulation, bringing together the best capabilities at NETL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The CCSI’s industrial partners provide representation from the power generation industry, equipment manufacturers, technology providers and engineering and construction firms. The CCSI’s academic participants (Carnegie Mellon University, Princeton University, West Virginia University, Boston University and the University of Texas at Austin) bring unparalleled expertise in multiphase flow reactors, combustion, process synthesis and optimization, planning and scheduling, and process control techniques for energy processes. During Fiscal Year (FY) 13, CCSI announced the initial release of its first set of computational tools and models during the October 2012 meeting of its Industry Advisory Board. This initial release led to five companies licensing the CCSI Toolset under a Test and Evaluation Agreement this year. By the end of FY13, the CCSI Technical Team had completed development of an updated suite of computational tools and models. The list below summarizes the new and enhanced toolset components that were released following comprehensive testing during October 2013. 1. FOQUS. Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity. Package includes: FOQUS Graphic User Interface (GUI), simulation-based optimization engine, Turbine Client, and heat integration capabilities. There is also an updated simulation interface and new configuration GUI for connecting Aspen Plus or Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) simulations to FOQUS and the Turbine Science Gateway. 2. A new MFIX-based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to predict particle attrition. 3. A new dynamic reduced model (RM) builder, which generates computationally efficient RMs of the behavior of a dynamic system. 4. A completely re-written version of the algebraic surrogate model builder for optimization (ALAMO). The new version is several orders of magnitude faster than the initial release and eliminates the MATLAB dependency. 5. A new suite of high resolution filtered models for the hydrodynamics associated with horizontal cylindrical objects in a flow path. 6. The new Turbine Science Gateway (Cluster), which supports FOQUS for running multiple simulations for optimization or UQ using a local computer or cluster. 7. A new statistical tool (BSS-ANOVA-UQ) for calibration and validation of CFD models. 8. A new basic data submodel in Aspen Plus format for a representative high viscosity capture solvent, 2-MPZ system. 9. An updated RM tool for CFD (REVEAL) that can create a RM from MFIX. A new lightweight, stand-alone version will be available in late 2013. 10. An updated RM integration tool to convert the RM from REVEAL into a CAPE-OPEN or ACM model for use in a process simulator. 11. An updated suite of unified steady-state and dynamic process models for solid sorbent carbon capture included bubbling fluidized bed and moving bed reactors. 12. An updated and unified set of compressor models including steady-state design point model and dynamic model with surge detection. 13. A new framework for the synthesis and optimization of coal oxycombustion power plants using advanced optimization algorithms. This release focuses on modeling and optimization of a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU). 14. A new technical risk model in spreadsheet format. 15. An updated version of the sorbent kinetic/equilibrium model for parameter estimation for the 1st generation sorbent model. 16. An updated process synthesis superstructure model to determine optimal process configurations utilizing surrogate models from ALAMO for adsorption and regeneration in a solid sorbent process. 17. Validation models for NETL Carbon Capture Unit utilizing sorbent AX. Additional validation models will be available for sorbent 32D in 2014. 18. An updated hollow fiber membrane model and system example for carbon capture. 19. An updated reference power plant model in Thermoflex that includes additional steam extraction and reinjection points to enable heat integration module. 20. An updated financial risk model in spreadsheet format.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

First-Principles Petascale Simulations for Predicting Deflagration to Detonation Transition in Hydrogen-Oxygen Mixtures

Hydrogen has emerged as an important fuel across a range of industries as a means of achieving energy independence and to reduce emissions. DDT and the resulting detonation waves in hydrogen-oxygen can have especially catastrophic consequences in a variety of industrial and energy producing settings related to hydrogen. First-principles numerical simulations of flame acceleration and DDT are required for an in-depth understanding of the phenomena and facilitating design of safe hydrogen systems. The goals of this project were (1) to develop first-principles petascale reactive flow Navier-Stokes simulation code for predicting gaseous high-speed combustion and detonation (HSCD) phenomena and (2) demonstrate feasibility of first-principles simulations of rapid flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in stoichiometric hydrogen-oxygen mixture (2H 2 + O 2 ). The goals of the project have been accomplished. We have developed a novel numerical simulation code, named HSCD, for performing first-principles direct numerical simulations of high-speed hydrogen combustion. We carried out a series of validating numerical simulations of inert and reactive shock reflection experiments in shock tubes. We then performed a pilot numerical simulation of flame acceleration in a long pipe. The simulation showed the transition of the rapidly accelerating flame into a detonation. The DDT simulations were performed using BG/Q Mira at the Argonne National Laboratory, currently the fourth fastest super-computer in the world.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Stand-Alone Dynamic System Simulation of a Fissile Solution System

Dynamic system simulations (DSS) of fissile solution systems (FSS) have been performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for several years. DSS have been designed and executed using the DESIRE (Direct Executing Simulation in Real Time) system, a platform ideal for expert system modelers, as it allows for direct mathematical specification of a model, and facilities for performing experiments and analyses with the model. Models built in DESIRE have been compared to historical data from several historic aqueous homogeneous reactors (AHR) showing close agreement between experimental data and model estimates. Historical systems modeled include: SUPO (Super Power), an AHR that operated at Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1951 to 1974; SILENE, which was operated by CEA at Valduc, France until 2011; KEWB (Kinetics Experiment Water Boiler) A-2 and B-5 cores, operated by North American Atomics during the 1960’s and 1970’s. SUPO is considered a benchmark for steady-state operations, SILENE for pulse, and KEWB as confirmatory for both modes. However, there are some simulation tasks that are not well-suited to DESIRE model implementation. These tasks include engineering design and analysis and providing a hardware simulator backend. It has been determined that executable simulation models would better suit these purposes, hence a process for converting DESIRE simulation models to executable simulation models was designed and implemented, and several models have been converted. DESIRE simulation models are converted to C++ executable models by an automated process. The conversion process is quick, accurate and repeatable, giving confidence that converted models will perform as well as the original DESIRE models. Extensive testing on the SUPO and accelerator driven subcritical system models has shown that the executable models perform almost identically to the DESIRE models. All major trends and events are simulated with excellent agreement and the steady-state results typically agree within a small fraction of a percent (always better than 0.1% and generally better than 0.01% agreement).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

High Fidelity Simulations of Large-Scale Wireless Networks

The worldwide proliferation of wireless connected devices continues to accelerate. There are 10s of billions of wireless links across the planet with an additional explosion of new wireless usage anticipated as the Internet of Things develops. Wireless technologies do not only provide convenience for mobile applications, but are also extremely cost-effective to deploy. Thus, this trend towards wireless connectivity will only continue and Sandia must develop the necessary simulation technology to proactively analyze the associated emerging vulnerabilities. Wireless networks are marked by mobility and proximity-based connectivity. The de facto standard for exploratory studies of wireless networks is discrete event simulations (DES). However, the simulation of large-scale wireless networks is extremely difficult due to prohibitively large turnaround time. A path forward is to expedite simulations with parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) techniques. The mobility and distance-based connectivity associated with wireless simulations, however, typically doom PDES and fail to scale (e.g., OPNET and ns-3 simulators). We propose a PDES-based tool aimed at reducing the communication overhead between processors. The proposed solution will use light-weight processes to dynamically distribute computation workload while mitigating communication overhead associated with synchronizations. This work is vital to the analytics and validation capabilities of simulation and emulation at Sandia. We have years of experience in Sandia’s simulation and emulation projects (e.g., MINIMEGA and FIREWHEEL). Sandia’s current highly-regarded capabilities in large-scale emulations have focused on wired networks, where two assumptions prevent scalable wireless studies: (a) the connections between objects are mostly static and (b) the nodes have fixed locations.

Onunkwo, Uzoma↗

Large Scale Simulation Platform for NODES Validation Study

This report summarizes the Large Scale (LS) simulation platform created for the Eaton NODES project. The simulation environment consists of both wholesale market simulator and distribution simulator and includes the CAISO wholesale market model and a PG&E footprint of 25-75 feeders to validate the scalability under a scenario of 33% RPS in California with additional 17% of DERS coming from distribution and customers. The simulator can generate hourly unit commitment, 5-minute economic dispatch, and 4-second AGC regulation signals. The simulator is also capable of simulating greater than 10k individual controllable devices. Simulated DERs include water heaters, EVs, residential and light commercial HVAC/buildings, and residential-level battery storage. Feeder-level voltage regulators and capacitor banks are also simulated for feeder-level real and reactive power management and Vol/Var control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulant Development for LAWPS Testing

This report describes simulant development work that was conducted to support the technology maturation of the LAWPS facility. Desired simulant physical properties (density, viscosity, solids concentration, solid particle size), sodium concentrations, and general anion identifications were provided by WRPS. The simulant recipes, particularly a “nominal” 5.6M Na simulant, are intended to be tested at several scales, ranging from bench-scale (500 mL) to full-scale. Each simulant formulation was selected to be chemically representative of the waste streams anticipated to be fed to the LAWPS system, and used the current version of the LAWPS waste specification as a formulation basis. After simulant development iterations, four simulants of varying sodium concentration (5.6M, 6.0M, 4.0M, and 8.0M) were prepared and characterized. The formulation basis, development testing, and final simulant recipes and characterization data for these four simulants are presented in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Expanding the computational frontier of multi-scale atmospheric simulation to advance understanding of low cloud / climate feedbacks: Final Technical Report

Marine boundary layer clouds are a challenge for climate models. They cover much of the oceans, but they are driven by small-scale turbulent eddies only a few hundred meters across, which in turn respond to the cloud formation. Global climate models have a grid spacing that is far too large to simulate such fluid motions, so they parameterize these cloud formation processes. Different climate modeling groups have designed different parameterizations in which the clouds turn out to be differently sensitive to a warming climate. This drives uncertainties in our best guess at the sensitivity of global warming to greenhouse gas increases. If these cloud-forming eddies could be directly simulated using the well-known equations of fluid motion, they would no longer need to be parameterized, removing a major source of climate modeling uncertainty. In this project, we overcame software engineering challenges to successfully implemented ‘ultraparameterization’ (UP), the first global model that does this, and we tested how well it works. We simulated five-year periods with present-day temperatures and with a warmer climate, and we investigated how the UP-simulated clouds responded to climate – the ‘cloud feedback’ problem. We found little response of clouds at all latitudes to the imposed climate change, which is within the range of predictions of conventional global climate models. UP is a variation on superparameterization, in which small cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are embedded in each column of the global model. In UP, the CRM grid is fine enough (250 m horizontal × 20 m vertical) to explicitly capture boundary-layer turbulent eddies and associated clouds. Because only one small columnar patch is simulated within each climate model grid cell, this is a million-fold more efficient than simulating the entire globe on this same CRM grid., but achieves much of the same effect for the cloud properties. It doesn’t work perfectly. For instance, like conventional climate models, UP simulates too little subtropical stratocumulus cloud, a bias that we are continuing to work to reduce. However, because it directly simulates the turbulent cloud-forming processes, UP is inherently more plausible for simulating how clouds will change in a perturbed climate. In future, we hope to apply UP to another key climate modeling issue: cloud-aerosol interaction and the effect of human-produced aerosols on the climate change we have already experienced and that which is likely to come.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations on the Sierra High-Performance Computing System

Physics-based three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of earthquake ground motions provide an alternative to reliance on limited and highly scattered empirical data and models for seismic hazard assessment. We performed fully 3D earthquake ground motion simulations on the Sierra and Lassen high-performance computing (HPC) platforms at Livermore Computing. These new HPC platforms feature graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration for improved performance. Ground motions were computed with SW4, a summation-by-parts finite difference code for anelastic wave propagation. SW4 was recently enhanced to run efficiently on GPU-accelerated platforms. We found that SW4 runs almost fifty (50) times faster in terms of node-hours on new GPU-accelerated platforms compared to conventional central processing unit (CPU) platforms with agreement of computed ground motion time-series to the full single precision which they are written. We focused on moment magnitude, M W , 7.0 earthquakes on the Hayward Fault. We were able to run three simulations resolving ground motions from static displacements (0 Hz) to frequencies of 10 Hz (wavelengths as short as 50 meters) making these Sierra calculations the highest resolution regional-scale earthquake simulations ever made for California. Results show good agreement between simulated ground motion intensities (peak ground velocity and acceleration, spectral response) and empirical models, including frequencies above 10 Hz. On Lassen we were able to run a suite of 52 M W 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake simulations resolved 0-5 Hz for both plane-layered, one-dimensional (1D) and 3D Earth models. These simulations were used to develop a methodology for characterizing and removing systematic path and site effects which bias ground motion intensities. These simulations using the newly enhanced SW4 code allow us to run higher resolution seismic simulations with shorter run times, providing a new capability for seismic hazard and risk studies. Results were presented at scientific conferences and workshops and two publications are being prepared based on work performed in this project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Algorithms for Matching Theories, Simulations, and Observations in Cosmology (Final Project)

The search for simple and elegant equations to explain and predict observable natural phenomena has been a driving force in scientific theory for several centuries. The great successes of Newton's laws, Maxwell's equations, the Schrodinger equation, and the theory of General Relativity have encouraged this perspective, and perhaps a beautiful equation comprising a “theory of everything” remains to be discovered. But now scientists are grappling with systems of ever-increasing complexity, fraught with nonlinearity, and with the quantities of interest often only indirectly observed. Nature may resist a simple description, and the most important discoveries of the next century may be complex theories with countless variables and parameters. The era of big data opens up a promising new approach to scientific discovery in this setting. The predictions of modern theories, even if complex or nonlinear, can be examined through detailed and computationally-intensive simulations that take days or weeks to run and fill petabytes of disk space. The upcoming generation of scientific instruments will provide petabytes of observations at unprecedented resolution and depth. The challenge is to compare data to simulations so as to test theories and identify those that best match the observations. The data are numerous and rich but are subject to noise and various systematic biases. The simulations are large and detailed but are so costly that the effective sample size is small. Moreover, the mapping from data to simulation to the parameters of interest is typically complicated and ill-conditioned. Although these challenges, and the solutions we propose, apply across the sciences, we will ground our efforts by focusing on cosmology. Here, we are truly entering the era of big data in several senses. Ever larger experiments survey larger and larger cosmological volumes, resulting in enormous amounts of pixel data to process and extract the information of cosmological interest. These include large imaging surveys, which collect all the light in broad wavelength ranges over significant fractions of the sky, and spectroscopic surveys, which measure the light as a function of wavelength to map out 3D distances. These experiments are designed to shed light on the big unanswered questions in cosmology. Distilling the petabytes of data into observed quantities for comparison with theory is a daunting task. But these large experiments do not only result in large amounts of data to analyze: if we wish to compare to theories of physics, then we need increasingly extensive predictions for the observed quantities as well, which requires ever-larger cosmological simulations that take substantial -- and at times prohibitive -- computational resources to produce. Our goal is to develop statistical and machine learning methods for using observed and simulated data to advance machine learning with applications cosmology. In particular, we focus our research efforts on the following tasks: The challenge for automated science is that it is computationally impossible and statistically dangerous to consider every possible model in order to find the best one. We will develop Bayesian Optimization based active-learning methods that accelerate both the execution of the simulations and the search for best-fitting parameters. The key idea is to make the simulations adaptive -- across resolutions, time, and parameters -- using the data to search as the simulation runs; Most ML methods operate on simple finite dimensional feature vectors. However, many cosmology and other science applications require ML methods that can operate on more complex objects as inputs or outputs such as functions, distributions, or sets and point clouds. Our goal is to develop efficient ML methods for this problem and demonstrate their applicability in Cosmology, Astrophysics, and other science problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulations of Laser Experiments to Study the Origin of Cosmic Magnetic Fields

Magnetic fields are ubiquitous in the universe; however, their origin is not fully understood. Cosmologists and astrophysicists have proposed a variety of ways in which small seed magnetic fields could be created. It is widely thought that the much larger values of the cosmic magnetic fields that we observe are a result of the amplification of these seed fields by the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. Such a mechanism had not yet been demonstrated in a controlled laboratory environment. We conceived experiments designed to demonstrate and study the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism in the laboratory. These experiments characterize the distribution of turbulent energy among the velocity, magnetic field, and density fluctuations, providing a comprehensive picture of the energy cascade in a magnetized, turbulent plasma. The experiments build on the pathfinder experiments we have conducted on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and the OMEGA laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics at Rochester. They utilize the high-intensity lasers at the Omega Laser Facility, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL and the Laser Megajoule (LMJ) Facility in France – the largest laser facilities in the world. The goal of this project was to design and model the highly demanding experiments through simulation campaigns using FLASH, a highly capable radiation-MHD code we have developed, and large-scale 3D simulations on the Mira supercomputer at ANL. The simulations were vital to ensuring the experiments achieve the strong turbulence and large magnetic Reynolds numbers required for the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism to operate. The simulations were also critical to determining when to fire the diagnostics, since the experiments last tens of nanoseconds but the signals of the strongly amplified magnetic fields last only a few nanoseconds. Finally, high-fidelity, validated FLASH simulations were crucial to interpreting the results of the experiments. By combining theory, experiments, and simulations, we were able to succeed in demonstrating and characterizing the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. The effort leveraged (1) the emergence of the Flash Center for Computational Science as a leader in numerical modeling of academic High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) experiments; (2) the FLASH code, which has been developed by the Flash Center and is a leadership-class, multi- physics, publicly available community code that has been applied successfully in many laser-driven experiments; (3) the expertise acquired through pathfinder experiments we performed on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and on the Omega laser facility; (4) the experience we have gained in designing and interpreting these experiments using validated simulations done with FLASH; and (5) the close collaborations we have established with outstanding experimental groups in the US and abroad. The broader impacts of the project are two-fold: (1) the work furthered the transformation of the academic community’s ability to design and analyze HEDP experiments at large laser facilities that is happening through the availability of FLASH and its widespread adoption by the academic community – a community that previously had had limited access to open and validated hydro/MHD simulation tools for HEDP experiments; and (2) the work trained young scientists to design and interpret HEDP experiments using validated simulations – a critical national need.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

2D Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of the Electrothermal Instability in Metallic Liners

The Virginia Tech (VT) Plasma Dynamics Laboratory Computational (PDCL) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) are performing two dimensional (2D) simulations of the electrothermal instability (ETI) using the LLNL multi-physics code Ares. Ares is a multi-physics arbitrary–Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) code developed by LLNL and is of particular use in studying magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities like the ETI due to its resistive MHD, magnetic diffusion, and radiative-hydrodynamics packages. Among its capabilities, it has the ability to model material strength, perform adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), and incorporate a wide variety of equations of state models and conductivity models. The 2D Ares simulation model created by VT-LLNL for studying the development and growth of the electrothermal instability has been configured with initial conditions based on the Mykonos Electrothermal Instability II (METI-II) experiments described by this grant and conducted by team members at the University of Nevada (UNR), the University of New Mexico (UNM), and Sandia National Laboratories. Previously, preliminary 2D Ares simulations of the ETI had been run to approximately 80ns. The rods in these simulations were initiated with sinusoidal perturbations at a similar order of magnitude to those measured on the aluminum rods used for the Mykonos experiment. This model has been improved by increasing the spatial resolution of the simulations and running the simulations further in time. In addition to the simulation run-times extending, the preliminary sinusoidal perturbation has been replaced with a perturbation derived from amplitude measurements by the experimental team, thereby correlating the simulation inputs better to the experimental runs. These new runs are capable of reaching 120ns of simulated time for the uncoated cases and to 200ns the 41 μm coated cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗