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BETO 2021 Peer Review: 2.1.0.100 - Biochemical Platform Analysis

The objective of this project is to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) to guide Biochemical Platform efforts, utilizing models for purposes of setting future R&D targets and tracking performance progress against those targets. Outcomes of our work are leveraged by BETO to guide program plans, as well as by other NREL/partner projects to quantify the impact of research on key technology barriers and to prioritize future efforts. This project provides high impact and relevance through establishing “bottom-up” TEA models as a basis for understanding the technical feasibility to meet “top-down” BETO cost targets. By providing a framework to translate technical performance to cost reductions in a biorefinery, our TEA models may be leveraged to maximize the efficiency of research funding towards the most economically impactful priorities, ultimately in support of BETO’s 2030 fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE. In order to mitigate a key risk/challenge to this project in overly-constraining our analyses to a singular technology focus or TEA metric, our approach continuously re-assesses opportunities for better optimization and alternative technology pathway options, while maintaining close interaction with other BETO analysis partners. We have made numerous recent accomplishments rooted around identifying and working with the researchers to solve key technical and TEA/LCA challenges, reflected through notable improvements in State-of-Technology (SOT) updates over prior benchmarks.

biochemical↗

Searching for Sterile Neutrinos In the NOvA Experiment and Measurements of Hadronic Energy Response with NOvA Test Beam Data

The NOvA (NuMI Off-Axis electron neutrino Appearance) experiment is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment composed of two functionally identical detectors: a 300-ton Near Detector and a 14-kton Far Detector, separated by 809 km and placed 14 mrad off the axis of the NuMI neutrino beam created at Fermilab. This configuration enables NOvA’s rich neutrino physics program, which includes measuring neutrino mixing parameters, determining the neutrino mass hierarchy, probing CP violation in the leptonic sector, studying neutrino cross sections, searching for sterile neutrinos, and more.\\ In this thesis I will present two independent analyses developed within the NOvA experiment. The first is a search for light sterile neutrino oscillations in the 3+1 framework using $\nu_\mu$-CC and NC samples from the NOvA Near and Far Detectors. Light sterile neutrinos are hypothetical neutral leptons that do not participate in the weak interactions but can mix with the three known active neutrinos: $\nu_e$, $\nu_\mu$, and $\nu_\tau$. Anomalous results, such as $\nu_e$/$\bar{\nu}e$ appearance in a $\nu_\mu$ ($\bar{\nu}_\mu$) beam observed by the MiniBooNE and LSND experiments, can be explained by the existence of sterile neutrinos. Thus, proving the existence of this type of neutrino is essential. The latest results of these searches in the NOvA experiment, along with contributions to this effort, will be presented.\\ The second is the first measurement of the pion energy response using data from the NOvA Test Beam experiment. The NOvA Test Beam experiment, deployed at Fermilab, uses a scaled-down 30-ton NOvA detector to analyze tagged beamline particles. The beamline can select and identify electrons, muons, pions, kaons, and protons with momenta ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 GeV/c. Pions are an important component of the hadronic system in neutrino interactions, and understanding how the detector responds to these particles is crucial for the validation of the simulation and the reduction of detector calibration uncertainties, which remain one of the largest systematic uncertainties in NOvA analyses.

Dueñas Tonguino, David Francisco [Cincinnati U.] (↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Design, Development, and Use of a Lunar Lander Simulation for NASA's Artemis Program

This paper describes the design, development, and initial use of a generalized and configurable lunar lander simulation to support NASA’s Artemis Program. This simulation is being developed for the Crew Compartment Office (CrewCo) in the Human Landing Systems (HLS) program and is called the HLS CrewCo Lander Simulation (HCLS). The HCLS provides insight into the challenges associated with returning humans to the Moon and the particular difficulties of operating at the Lunar South Pole. The simulation models a generalized integrated lunar landing spacecraft based on a government reference design but can and has been adapted to model vendor specific designs as well. The simulation architecture and tool sets provide a flexible framework that allows for quickly prototyping and evaluating various aspects of a piloted lunar landing system. This includes the modeling of all principal human controlled flight phases: rendezvous and docking with crew transfer systems; docked orbital outpost operations; undocking and lunar transfer; lunar orbital operations; lunar deorbit, descent, and landing (DDL); lunar surface operations; lunar ascent; and return to the orbital outpost. The flexibility of the simulation allows for the integrated evaluation of potential vehicle subsystems, crew displays, guidance and control modes, and trajectory designs. The purpose of the HCLS is not to design the ideal lunar lander, but rather to understand and the strengths and weaknesses of vehicle design choices. This paper describes the basic simulation architecture and discusses the tool sets used to develop the HCLS. This includes a number of open source tool sets and publicly available data sets. This paper also describes some of the early use cases and findings. The primary focus of early HCLS use has been on the manual piloting task to safely get the crew to the desired landing site in case of a failure in the automated guidance system. Several guidance modes and cues have been implemented which allow a pilot to manually fly the vehicle to the targeted landing site starting anywhere from powered descent initiation. It has been a valuable tool for understanding what is required to manually fly a lunar lander as well as giving a sense of the vehicle dynamics, which are much different than anything that is flown on Earth. A number of experienced test pilots have participated in manual piloting evaluations using the HCLS and provided valuable feedback on the piloting task which has been very beneficial to NASA and the HLS program.

James Michael Gentile↗

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CFD/FEA Co-Simulation Framework for Analysis of the Thermal Barrier Coating Design and Its Impact on the HD Diesel Engine Performance

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) have been investigated both experimentally and through simulation for mixing controlled combustion (MCC) concepts as a method for reducing heat transfer losses and increasing cycle efficiency, but it is still a very active research area. Early studies were inconclusive, with different groups discovering obstacles to realizing the theoretical potential. Nuanced papers have shown that coating material properties, thickness, microstructure, and surface morphology/roughness all can impact the efficacy of the thermal barrier coating and must be accounted for. Adding to the complexities, a strong spatial and temporal heat flux inhomogeneity exists for mixing controlled combustion (diesel) imposed onto the surfaces from the impinging flame jets. In support of the United States Department of Energy SuperTruck II program goal to achieve 55% brake thermal efficiency on a heavy-duty diesel engines, this study sought to develop a deeper insight into the inhomogeneous heat flux from mixing controlled combustion on thermal barrier coatings and to infer concrete guidance for designing coatings. To that end, a co-simulation approach was developed that couples high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of in-cylinder processes and combustion, and finite element analysis (FEA) modeling of the thermal barrier-coated and metal engine components to resolve spatial and temporal thermal boundary conditions. The models interface at the surface of the combustion chamber; FEA modeling predicts the spatially resolved surface temperature profile, while CFD develops insights into the effect of the thermal barrier coating on the combustion process and the boundary conditions on the gas side. The paper demonstrates the capability of the framework to estimate cycle impacts of the temperature swing at the surface, as well as identify critical locations on the piston/thermal barrier coating that exhibit the highest charge temperature and highest heat fluxes. In addition, the FEA results include predictions of thermal stresses, thus enabling insight into factors affecting coating durability. An example of the capability of the framework is provided to illustrate its use for investigating novel coatings and provide deeper insights to guide future coating design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Towards Resolving the Risk of Turbine Collision on Fish: FY21-22 Seedling Report Phase I

The most important concern for permitting tidal and river turbines is the collision risk of marine animals with the turbine blades. Our understanding of the risk to individual fish from colliding with turbine blades is poor; if these collisions were to occur, it is unknown whether fish will sustain recoverable injuries or be killed. Equally unknown is the impact these collisions might have on populations, particularly for threatened, endangered, or commercially managed fish species. In addition to observations of interactions of fish with turbines, numerical models need to be developed or expanded to predict impacts on fish populations. These models could replace expensive and technically challenging monitoring programs in high energy, often murky, tidal or river waters. In this project, a multi-pronged approach was taken to understand the state of knowledge for collision risk of fish with turbines and build a pathway forward. This approach included a workshop with experts, a literature review of modeling and empirical studies, the development of a research framework, and the identification of case studies to address through future work. This project is a first step towards the future development of effective and robust numerical models for assessing the collision risk of fish around turbines. This will achieve a balanced and improved estimate of the severity of collision risk to fish at the population scale.

Garavelli, Lysel↗

The State of Space Propulsion Research

The current state of space propulsion research is assessed from both a historical perspective, spanning the decades since Apollo, and a forward-looking perspective, as defined by the enabling technologies required for a meaningful and sustainable human and robotic exploration program over the forthcoming decades. Previous research and technology investment approaches are examined and a course of action suggested for obtaining a more balanced portfolio of basic and applied research. The central recommendation is the establishment of a robust national Space Propulsion Research Initiative that would run parallel with systems development and include basic research activities. The basic framework and technical approach for this proposed initiative are defined and a potential implementation approach is recommended.

Sackheim, R. L.↗

A Robust Method to Integrate End-to-End Mission Architecture Optimization Tools

End-to-end mission simulations include multiple phases of flight. For example, an end-to-end Mars mission simulation may include launch from Earth, interplanetary transit to Mars and entry, descent and landing. Each phase of flight is optimized to meet specified constraints and often depend on and impact subsequent phases. The design and optimization tools and methodologies used to combine different aspects of end-to-end framework and their impact on mission planning are presented. This work focuses on a robust implementation of a Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimization (MDAO) method that offers the flexibility to quickly adapt to changing mission design requirements. Different simulations tailored to the liftoff, ascent, and atmospheric entry phases of a trajectory are integrated and optimized in the MDAO program Isight, which provides the user a graphical interface to link simulation inputs and outputs. This approach provides many advantages to mission planners, as it is easily adapted to different mission scenarios and can improve the understanding of the integrated system performance within a particular mission configuration. A Mars direct entry mission using the Space Launch System (SLS) is presented as a generic end-to-end case study. For the given launch period, the SLS launch performance is traded for improved orbit geometry alignment, resulting in an optimized a net payload that is comparable to that in the SLS Mission Planner's Guide.

Lugo, Rafael↗

Integrating Satellite and Surface Sensor Networks for Irrigation Management Applications in California

Satellite mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated agricultural lands can provide agricultural producers and water managers with information that can be used to optimize agricultural water use, especially in regions with limited water supplies. The timely delivery of information on agricultural crop water requirements has the potential to make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate. We present a system for irrigation scheduling and management support in California and describe lessons learned from the development and implementation of the system. The Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) framework integrates satellite data with information from agricultural weather networks to map crop canopy development, basal crop coefficients (Kcb), and basal crop evapotranspiration (ETcb) at the scale of individual fields. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based irrigation management decision support system and web data services. SIMS also provides an application programming interface (API) that facilitates integration with other irrigation decision support tools, estimation of total crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and calculation of on-farm water use efficiency metrics. Accuracy assessments conducted in commercial fields for more than a dozen crop types to date have shown that SIMS seasonal ETcb estimates are within 10 mean absolute error (MAE) for well-watered crops and within 15 across all crop types studied, and closely track daily ETc and running totals of ETc measured in each field. Use of a soil water balance model to correct for soil evaporation and crop water stress reduces this error to less than 8 MAE across all crop types studied to date relative to field measurements of ETc. Results from irrigation trials conducted by the project for four vegetable crops have also demonstrated the potential for use of ET-based irrigation management strategies to reduce total applied water by 20-40 relative to grower standard practices while maintaining crop yields and quality.

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.↗

Creating Portfolio Management Concepts for Highly Agile and Innovative Government Research Programs Using Design Thinking and Lean Startup Methodologies

Managing a research and development (R&D) portfolio presents numerous challenges, such as prioritizing research areas, remaining agile, strategic workforce planning, and measuring return on investment, impact, and innovation. One government R&D program is charged with producing a high degree of innovative, transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology. A practical, structured methodology for strategically prioritizing emerging aviation R&D in such an environment is lacking. The existing multi-criteria decision aid tools are primarily utilized at an enterprise level, take months to set up and collect data, require large teams of experts, are used on an infrequent basis, and are not conducive to a highly innovative, high-risk portfolio. Prior to audaciously creating a new portfolio prioritization process, the exact challenges with portfolio management for R&D projects were identified using the design thinking and lean start-up methods. A key part of this discovery process was interviewing stakeholders, as well as other managers of organizations charged with producing innovative portfolios. These interviews, as well as additional techniques, were used to develop a deeper understanding of the challenges and, subsequently, lay the foundation for development of an effective portfolio prioritization process. Four potential concepts that represent key findings emerged: carefully selected criteria for portfolio assessment and selection, targeted portfolio turnover rate, dynamic portfolio prioritization framework, and streamlined transition or commercialization of R&D. Acting on any one of the resulting portfolio management concepts will increase the transparency and confidence in portfolio decisions and, ideally, result in a greater degree of transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology.

project portfolio management↗

Dose equivalent near the bone-soft tissue interface from nuclear fragments produced by high-energy protons

During manned space missions, high-energy nucleons of cosmic and solar origin collide with atomic nuclei of the human body and produce a broad linear energy transfer spectrum of secondary particles, called target fragments. These nuclear fragments are often more biologically harmful than the direct ionization of the incident nucleon. That these secondary particles increase tissue absorbed dose in regions adjacent to the bone-soft tissue interface was demonstrated in a previous publication. To assess radiological risks to tissue near the bone-soft tissue interface, a computer transport model for nuclear fragments produced by high energy nucleons was used in this study to calculate integral linear energy transfer spectra and dose equivalents resulting from nuclear collisions of 1-GeV protons transversing bone and red bone marrow. In terms of dose equivalent averaged over trabecular bone marrow, target fragments emitted from interactions in both tissues are predicted to be at least as important as the direct ionization of the primary protons-twice as important, if recently recommended radiation weighting factors and "worst-case" geometry are used. The use of conventional dosimetry (absorbed dose weighted by aa linear energy transfer-dependent quality factor) as an appropriate framework for predicting risk from low fluences of high-linear energy transfer target fragments is discussed.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗

A Mission Operations Architecture for the 21st Century

A new operations architecture for low cost missions is proposed, to build a framework to enable NASA to face its major challenges beond 2000. This architecture is composed of three elements: Service Based Architecture, Demand Access Automation, Distributed Science Hubs.

operations↗

Network Optimization of the Electrosynthesis of Chemicals from CO2

Carbon dioxide electroreduction (ECO2R) is gaining attention due to its capacity to mitigate CO2 emissions while using electricity that would otherwise be curtailed. Its foreseeable industrial implementation requires of holistic methods to assess the technological and economic performance of ECO2R processes and integrate them in current chemical supply chains and power systems. Here, we combine techno-economic assessment and mathematical programming to find the optimal paths to electroreduce CO2 into valuable chemicals under variable electricity prices. The proposed approach is tested with a case study addressing the CO2 capture from flue gas or direct air and its electricity-powered reduction into carbon monoxide, formic acid or multi-carbon compounds. The results obtained demonstrate the ability of the framework to build ECO2R networks and provide operation profiles that respond to fluctuating electricity prices.

carbon dioxide↗

Machine-Learned Force Field for Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Nonequilibrium Ammonia Synthesis on Iron Catalysts

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is one of the most important industrial chemicals. The conventional NH 3 synthesis method-the Haber–Bosch process-converts atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) into NH 3 using H 2 with an iron (Fe) catalyst. However, this process requires high pressures (100–200 atm) and temperatures (700–800 K) near thermal equilibrium. Recently, Fe-based nanocatalysts have been reported to produce promising NH 3 yields under atmospheric pressures and temperature-modulated nonequilibrium conditions. Understanding the mechanism of nonequilibrium catalysis with programmed temperature variation could help to optimize this fully electrified and less energy-intensive process. Although reactive molecular dynamics (RMD) simulations can be a useful tool to model nonequilibrium catalytic processes, they require the development of accurate force fields (i.e., interatomic potentials). Here, we present a machine-learned (ML) force field within the Deep Potential MD (DPMD) framework, trained using periodic density functional theory (DFT) calculations, to model NH 3 synthesis on Fe catalysts with various surface adsorbates such as *N, *H, *N 2 , *H 2 , *NH, *NH 2 , and *NH 3 . Here, we generated the DFT data from static models of elementary reactions on the most stable (110) surface of body-centered cubic Fe, which then were augmented by data from constant number of particles–volume–temperature (NVT) DFT-MD trajectories at various temperatures. Finally, we utilized the fully optimized ML force field to investigate reaction dynamics at an Fe(110) surface at linearly increasing temperatures using NVT-DPMD simulations. Our simulations indicate that pulsed temperature ramping could prove favorable for NH3 synthesis. For example, we conducted ramping under multiple sets of conditions: (i) from 900 to 1200 K over periods of 0.1–0.3 ns for Fe surfaces precovered with N or NH along with H; and (ii) from 300 to 600 K over 0.1–0.3 ns for Fe surfaces precovered with NH 3 . While our simulations so far are limited to short time scales (very rapid heating), these observations shed light on the mechanism of the high NH 3 synthesis rate achieved in a novel temperature-modulated nonequilibrium catalytic reactor using pulsed heating and cooling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Virtual Power Plants: Pilots, Challenges, and Innovations Shaping Future Development

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) aggregate distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide grid services traditionally delivered by centralized power plants. This article reviews the current state of VPP deployment, highlighting business models, compensation mechanisms, and global pilot projects. While VPPs offer benefits such as grid flexibility, resilience, and cost savings, challenges remain in communication infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, market access, and customer engagement. To address these, we propose a scalable, privacy-preserving hierarchical VPP architecture that coordinates with distribution utilities and preserves customer data. We also present the Integrated T&D Control Room of the Future as a key test bed for validating and accelerating VPP adoption. These innovations can help transition VPPs from pilot programs to integral components of a modern, reliable power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗