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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Sleuthing the MSL EDL Performance from an X Band Carrier Perspective

During the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) of NASA's Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), or Curiosity, rover to Gale Crater on Mars on August 6, 2012 UTC, the rover transmitted an X-band signal composed of carrier and tone frequencies and a UHF signal modulated with an 8kbps data stream. During EDL, the spacecraft's orientation is determined by its guidance and mechanical subsystems to ensure that the vehicle land safely at its destination. Although orientation to maximize telecom performance is not possible, antennas are especially designed and mounted to provide the best possible line of sight to Earth and to the Mars orbiters supporting MSL's landing. The tones and data transmitted over these links are selected carefully to reflect the most essential parameters of the vehicle's state and the performance of the EDL subsystems for post-EDL reconstruction should no further data transmission from the vehicle be possible. This paper addresses the configuration of the X band receive system used at NASA / JPL's Deep Space Network (DSN) to capture the signal spectrum of MSL's X band carrier and tone signal, examines the MSL vehicle state information obtained from the X band carrier signal only and contrasts the Doppler-derived information against the post-EDL known vehicle state. The paper begins with a description of the MSL EDL sequence of events and discusses the impact of the EDL maneuvers such as guided entry, parachute deploy, and powered descent on the frequency observables expected at the DSN. The range of Doppler dynamics possible is derived from extensive 6 Degrees-Of-Freedom (6 DOF) vehicle state calculations performed by MSL's EDL simulation team. The configuration of the DSN's receive system, using the Radio Science Receivers (RSR) to perform open-loop recording for both for nominal and off-nominal EDL scenarios, is detailed. Expected signal carrier power-to-noise levels during EDL are shown and their impact on signal detection is considered. Particular attention is given to the selection of the appropriate RSR processing bandwidths and to its configuration for real-time signal detection. The X-band carrier frequency obtained through post-processing of the open-loop recorded spectrum is given. Detection of spacecraft status and completion of key vehicle events through their Doppler signature is discussed and illustrated. This Doppler-derived information is compared against the very accurate vehicle data obtained post-EDL via MSL's UHF radio subsystem. The paper concludes with a discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of transmitting the X-band carrier and tone signal in the general context of EDL communications and lessons learned for future missions with EDL sequences are given

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)↗
NASA NTRS2015

Fracture Toughness of Carbon Fiber Composites Containing Various Fiber Sizings and a Puncture Self-Healing Thermoplastic Matrix

Ongoing efforts at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) have resulted in the identification of several commercially available thermoplastic resin systems which self-heal after ballistic impact and through penetration. One of these resins, polybutylene graft copolymer (PBg), was selected as a matrix for processing with unsized carbon fibers to fabricate reinforced composites for further evaluation. During process development, data from thermo-physical analyses was utilized to determine a processing cycle to fabricate laminate panels, which were analyzed by photo microscopy and acid digestion. The process cycle was further optimized based on these results to fabricate panels for mechanical property characterization. The results of the processing development effort of this composite material, as well as the results of the mechanical property characterization, indicated that bonding between the fiber and PBg was not adequate. Therefore, three sizings were investigated in this work to assess their potential to improve fiber/matrix bonding compared to previously tested unsized IM7 fiber. Unidirectional prepreg was made at NASA LaRC from three sized carbon fibers and utilized to fabricate test coupons that were tested in double cantilever beam configurations to determine GIc fracture toughness.

Cano, Roberto J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aircraft Loss of Control: Problem Analysis for the Development and Validation of Technology Solutions

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes. LOC can result from a wide spectrum of precursors (or hazards), often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and the validation process must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This paper provides a detailed description of a methodology for analyzing LOC as a dynamics and control problem for the purpose of developing effective technology solutions. The paper includes a definition of LOC based on several recent publications, a detailed description of a refined LOC accident analysis process that is illustrated via selected example cases, and a description of planned follow-on activities for identifying future potential LOC risks and the development of LOC test scenarios. Some preliminary considerations for LOC of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and for their safe integration into the National Airspace System (NAS) are also discussed.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Testing of Selective Laser Melting Turbomachinery Applicable to Exploration Upper Stage

This task is to design, fabricate, and spin test to failure a Ti6-4 hydrogen turbopump impeller that was built using the selective laser melting (SLM) fabrication process (fig. 1). The impeller is sized around upper stage engine requirements. In addition to the spin burst test, material testing will be performed on coupons that are built with the impeller.

Calvert, Marty↗
NASA NTRS2017

Biosignatures in the Context of Low Energy Flux

Many of the features that are thought of as biosignatures - including the mediation of chemical and physical processes with speed, specificity, and selectivity - result directly or indirectly from life's unique capability to mediate and direct energy flux. As such, it is important to consider the impact that differences in energy flux may have on the quantity and quality of evidence for life. Earth differs from every other body in our solar system in the magnitude of biologically-usable energy flux into a liquid water environment. On a global basis, the capture of light energy into photosynthesis and the flux of chemical energy represented in the products of that photosynthesis (organic material + O2) are about six and four orders of magnitude larger, respectively, than the flux of energy represented in geochemical sources. Our conception of what an inhabited world "looks like" and our intuition about how to search for life are based in this high-energy context. Energy fluxes on worlds beyond Earth may be better approximated by the million-fold smaller flux provided to Earth's biosphere by geochemical sources. As a result, the nature, abundance, and quality of evidence for life that could be expected on an inhabited extraterrestrial world within our solar system may differ profoundly from that found on Earth. Understanding this potential difference in quantitative terms provides important context for the formulation of life detection strategies. The influence of energy flux on biosignatures can be evaluated through reference to the two basic purposes into which life partitions energy flux: (1) Life expends energy to sustain existing biomass in a metabolic steady state (metabolically functional but non-growing). The formal representation of this relationship in the traditional microbiology literature equates biomass directly with energy flux. The direct implication is that worlds having lower energy flux will have correspondingly lower potential to support biomass. Life detection strategies that directly target extant organisms should therefore be prepared to encounter average biomass densities that may be many orders of magnitude smaller than those found in most of Earth's surface environments (2) Life expends energy to synthesize new biomass. An end-member case in which new biomass is created at the energy-limited rate and the corresponding cells are immediately destroyed (so that the energy partitioned to cell maintenance is minimized) establishes an upper bound on the rate at which biological material can enter a bulk global pool. For a specified bulk concentration [i] of any particular biological compound, i, or for biologically produced matter overall, this synthesis rate, R (sub i), defines a characteristic time scale tau (sub i) equals [i] divided by R (sub i). tau (sub i) can be thought of as (a) the minimum time required for biosynthesis to yield a specific bulk concentration (e.g., a detection threshold) of i, and (b) the average residence time of i within a bulk pool when [i] is held in steady state through a balance between biosynthesis and attrition by physical, chemical, or biological consumption. tau (sub i) becomes an important quantity in considering the potential utility of enantiomeric excess (as a product of homochiral biosynthesis) as a biosignature. Spontaneous racemization of amino acids acts to "erase" the signature of homochiral synthesis over time scales that may range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years, depending on temperature. For environments in which low energy flux translates to low rates of biosynthesis, including the synthesis of homochiral amino acids, amino acid residence times in pools having detectable concentrations may compare to or significantly exceed the time scale for racemization. This and similar consequences of long residence times should be considered in the formulation of life detection strategies based on detection of biologically-produced species. Fluxes of biologically-useful energy on potentially habitable worlds within our solar system are, at present, not well constrained. Improving such constraint has the potential to inform priorities in the formulation and targeting of search-for-life strategies, based on the implications of energy flux for the abundance and quality of biosignatures overall, and in specific categories.

ENERGY FLUX↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive↗
NASA NTRS2019

Efficient Near-Field to Mid-Field Sonic Boom Propagation Using a High-Order Space Marching Method

An efficient strategy for propagating sonic boom signatures from a near-field Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution to the mid-field is presented. The method is based on a high-order accurate finite-difference discretization of the 3D Euler equations on a specially designed curvilinear grid and a single sweep space marching solution algorithm. The new approach leads to more than a factor of two reduction in overall computational resources compared to the current method used to propagate near-field sonic booms to the ground. Accuracy and efficiency of the near-field to mid-field process is demonstrated using a selection of test cases from the AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshops. Azimuthal dependence of nonlinear wave propagation from the near-field to mid-field is analyzed along with its effects on the ground level noise.

Housman, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning Prototype App For Recognition of Fruits

As the incidence of obesity and associated negative health consequences is rising, it becomes crucial to monitor the dietary choices of individuals. Unfortunately, traditional methods to collect this information involve collecting food frequency questionnaires from individuals using paper. Electronic food trackers have been developed to collect food data, but they require participants to manually label and describe the content of their meals, and which may be difficult for researchers to interpret in a standardized fashion. Machine learning, however, provides an easy and efficient method for both participants and researchers to label food items with standardized descriptions. This project aims to create a prototype phone application that can identify and label photos of apples. This is done by making a machine learning model through Turicreate, a python module, which is then implemented into an iOS app through Xcode and Swift. The modules used in Swift include CoreML and AVFoundation. This machine learning application will be incorporated with a MealLogger phone app that is also under development. The MealLogger app will be used to keep track of participants' calorie intake and other personal details throughout the sleep study. The machine learning model will present several potential identities of the foods found in the photo, and the user will only need to select the correct option. This will be a user-friendly method for participants to easily log their food consumption without the hard work of manually inputting each and every description. Some limitations to this project include the wide variety of food, including those within different cultures. To deal with this, the model will include the most generic food categories, which the participant may select, and produce a drop-down menu of more specific dishes under that specified category, with the option of self-input. Additional questionnaires may be implemented according to the food type selected This will allow the process to be quick and easy, but also specific for the purpose of analysis. The release of the application will require a much longer process, but the machine learning prototype presents a first step toward an application that may change data analysis for researchers interested in collecting food intake from individuals living in the real world.

Food tracker↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Remote Sensing of Clouds, Water Vapor, and Near-Surface Winds Under Various Aerosol Conditions During CAMP2Ex

The Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) field campaign took place from August – October 2019. CAMP2Ex science objectives include understanding aerosol-cloud interaction under various Meteorological conditions, and how these Meteorological phenomena affect aerosol distribution in the atmosphere. Numerous instruments were flown on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) P-3 aircraft during 19 CAMP2Ex science flights, including the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) the Airborne Third Generation Precipitation Radar (APR-3), and the High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL2). Geophysical retrieval equations for cloud liquid water, columnar water vapor, and near-surface wind speed using AMPR brightness temperatures have been derived and tested using CAMP2Ex data. Water vapor and wind speed retrievals have been validated using in situ observations, such as dropsondes and shipborne instruments. This presentation will demonstrate these AMPR-based retrievals during CAMP2Ex, including discussions of retrieval uncertainties. Specific CAMP2Ex flights will be presented in greater detail, including inferences of other Meteorological phenomena in clear air and around precipitating and non-precipitating clouds, such as background wind speeds and potential identification of gust fronts. These analyses will be supplemented with APR-3 reflectivity and Doppler velocity data to infer microphysical processes occurring within and around selected clouds of interest. In cases where multiple remote-sensing measurements were obtained for the same cloud, a time-evolution analysis of these features may be performed. Throughout these analyses, HSRL2 data will be used to quantify aerosol properties beneath the P-3, and variations in the AMPR/APR-3 observations with respect to various aerosol conditions will be discussed.

Corey Amiot↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Moon to Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Technology (MMPACT) Lunar Surface Construction Activity at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Introduction: The goal of the Moon to Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Technology (MMPACT) Project at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is to develop, deliver, and demonstrate on-demand capabilities to protect astronauts and create infrastructure elements on the lunar surface via construction of landing pads, habitats, shelters, roadways, berms, and blast shields using lunar regolith-based materials. MSFC has strong collaborations with industry, academia, and other NASA Centers to accomplish this goal. The MMPACT project consists of three elements. The first focuses on the development of an autonomous construction system. The second focuses on construction feedstock materials development. The third element focuses on the development of a microwave sintering construction capability. The team plans to demonstrate construction on a small Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) lander in the 2025 timeframe, with a future goal of constructing a subscale landing pad in 2028-2029.The MMPACT project is funded through the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative, which is part of the Space Technology Mission Directorate. Technology Development: The MMPACT team will evaluate multiple autonomous construction and microwave construction technologies, materials, and construction element forms. Selected technologies will be matured; processes and operations will be defined for the two flight missions. Evaluations of materials, as well as the technology itself, will be demonstrated in simulated lunar environments as part of the technology maturation process. The team is keenly aware of the properties of the lunar environment. Its temperature swings, negligible exosphere, and unprepared site foundations factor into the materials for both construction and hardware, the concept of operations, and the technology’s interdependencies. Materials: The team is looking at materials that can be produced from in-situ resources in an effort to make lunar construction cost-effective. The particular focus of the materials team is cementitious materials, metals, and sintered and melted regolith. These materials will be studied for tensile, compressive, and flexural strength. They will also be tested for their ability to handle thermal swings and vacuum. They will be fully characterized using various microscopy techniques to examine micro-structures, chemistry, and crystal formation. Interdependencies: There are many interdependencies that MMPACT has already identified. These include: •Excavation interface •Regolith feedstock beneficiation •Regolith feedstock storage and provision •Requirements for structures •Site-to-site mobility systems •Availability of lunar simulant •Lander off-loading capabilities •Navigation systems •Power •Regolith composition and mineralogy •Lander specifications •Communication protocols Technology developments in these additional areas would be beneficial to MMPACT.

Moon to Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Tec↗
NASA NTRS1996

The New Millenium Program Microelectronics Systems Advanced Technology Development

Describes the New Millenium Program, including the scope of the Microelectronics Systems IPDT as well as its current membership. Also summarizes the results of the IPDT technology roadmapping process. They describe the technologies selected as well as the avionics architecture chosen for validation of the first NMP spacecraft, to be launched inJauary 1998.

new↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

M2-SCREAM: A Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS

Stratospheric composition and transport patterns are changing because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and declining levels of ozone depleting substances. Superimposed on forced trends are: dynamical variability at a range of time scales and unforeseen perturbations such as those resulting from injections of volcanic material and smoke from PyroCb events. Chemical reanalyses can be powerful tools for studying the composition of the stratosphere and disentangling forced responses from internal variability. This presentation introduces a new chemical reanalysis of stratospheric constituents developed and produced at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) using the recently developed GMAO Constituent Data Assimilation System. Called the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM), this reanalysis consists of assimilated global three-dimensional fields of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) mixing ratios and covers the period since the beginning of MLS observations in September 2004 to the present. M2-SCREAM assimilates version 4.2 MLS profiles of the five constituents alongside total ozone column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. The dynamics and tropospheric water vapor are constrained by assimilated meteorological fields from MERRA-2. The assimilated constituent fields and meteorology are provided to users at a 50-km horizontal resolution and a three-hourly frequency. Monthly analysis uncertainties and flags are also provided to the users. M2-SCREAM is an accurate and dynamically consistent high-resolution data record of the five constituents, all of which are of primary importance to stratospheric chemistry and transport studies. We will present a description of M2-SCREAM and selected results of a process-based evaluation of this product using independent data. As an illustration, we will discuss the perturbation to stratospheric composition from the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in January 2022 as seen in the reanalysis. We will also propose potential scientific applications of M2-SCREAM and outline plans for an upcoming comprehensive composition reanalysis that is being developed at NASA GMAO.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Finite Element Approach for Simplified 2D Nonlinear Dynamic Contact/Impact Analysis

In this paper, a simplified numerical approach for finite element dynamic analysis of an inelastic solid structure subjected to solid object impact is presented. The approach approximates the impacting solid as the selected multiple nodes, for which mass of the impactor is distributed. The node-to-segment contact formulation with the penalty constraint technique incorporated is employed to impose contact conditions between the nodes and the surface of the receiver structure. The node-to-segment algorithm is integrated into Newton–Raphson time integration scheme and the Lagrange multiplier technique is applied to enforce the identical displacements for the selected nodes throughout the analysis process. The approach is verified using two-dimensional plane strain models considering elastic-perfectly-plastic material behavior. The results obtained using the proposed approach are in a good agreement with those simulated using a commercial finite element code, ABAQUS dynamic/implicit, in terms of displacements and stress distribution fields. The proposed approach is shown to be computationally superior to general finite element method-based contact/impact analysis without significantly sacrificing the accuracy.

Seungwook Seok↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conquering Data Chaos: Research Data Management with Kubernetes

Managing massive volumes of data and effectively making it accessible to researchers poses significant challenges and is a barrier to scientific discovery. In many cases, critical data is locked up in unwieldy file formats or one-off databases and is too large to effectively process on a single machine. This talk explores the role of Kubernetes, an open-source container orchestration platform, in addressing research data management challenges. I will discuss how we are using a set of publicly available open-source and home-grown tools in the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) Data, Analysis, and Visualization (DAV) group to help researchers overcome data-related bottlenecks. The talk will begin by providing an overview of the data challenges faced in research data management, including data storage, processing, and analysis. I will highlight Kubernetes' ability to handle large-scale data by leveraging containerization and distributed computing, including distributed storage. Kubernetes allows researchers to encapsulate data processing infrastructure and workflows into portable containers, enabling reproducibility and ease of deployment. Kubernetes can then schedule and manage the resource allocation of these containers to enable efficient utilization of limited computing resources, leading to more efficient data processing and analysis. I will discuss some limitations of traditional, siloed approaches to dealing with data and emphasize the need for solutions which foster collaboration. I will highlight how we are using Kubernetes at NREL to facilitate data sharing and cooperation among research teams. Kubernetes' flexible architecture enables the deployment of shared computing environments, such as Apache Superset, where researchers can seamlessly access and analyze shared datasets. Providing the ability to have one research team easily consume data generated by another, utilizing Kubernetes' as a central data platform, is one of the major wins we've encountered by adopting the platform. Finally, I will showcase real-world use cases from NREL where we have used Kubernetes to solve some persistent data challenges involving large volumes of sensor and monitoring data. I will discuss the challenges we encountered when creating our cluster and making it available as a production-ready resource. I will also discuss the specific suite of tools, including Postgres and Apache Druid for columnar and timeseries data, and Redpanda Kafka for streaming data we have deployed in our infrastructure, and the process that went into the selection of these tools.

collaborative environment↗
NASA NTRS2013

Preparation of a Bimetal Using Mechanical Alloying for Environmental or Industrial Use

Following the 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act ban on their manufacture, PCBs remain an environmental threat. PCBs are known to bio-accumulate and concentrate in fatty tissues. Further complications arise from the potential for contamination of commercial mixtures with other more toxic chlorinated compounds such as polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs). Until recently, only one option was available for the treatment of PCB-contaminated materials: incineration. This may prove to be more detrimental to the environment than the PCBs themselves due to the potential for formation of PCDDs. Metals have been used for the past ten years for the remediation of halogenated solvents and other contaminants in the environment; however, zero-valent metals alone do not possess the activity required to dehalogenate PCBs. Palladium has been shown to act as an excellent catalyst for the dechlorination of PCBs with active metals. This invention is a method for the production of a palladium/magnesium bimetal capable of dechlorinating PCBs using mechanical milling/mechanical alloying. Other base metals and catalysts may also be alloyed together (e.g., nickel or zinc) to create a similarly functioning catalyst system. Several bimetal catalyst systems currently can be used for processes such as hydrogen peroxide synthesis, oxidation of ethane, selective oxidation, hydrogenation, and production of syngas for further conversion to clean fuels. The processes for making these bimetal catalysts often involve vapor deposition. This technology provides an alternative to vapor deposition that may provide equally active catalysts. A hydrogenation catalyst including a base material coated with a catalytic metal is made using mechanical milling techniques. The hydrogenation catalysts are used as an excellent catalyst for the dehalogenation of contaminated compounds and the remediation of other industrial compounds. The mechanical milling technique is simpler and cheaper than previously used methods for producing hydrogenation catalysts. Preferably, the hydrogenation catalyst is a bimetallic particle formed from a zero-valent iron or zero-valent magnesium particle coated with palladium that is impregnated onto a high-surface-area graphite support. The zero-valent metal particles should be microscale or nanoscale zero-valent magnesium or zero-valent iron particles. Other zero-valent metal particles and combinations may be used. Additionally, the base material may be selected from a variety of minerals including, but not limited to, alumina and zeolites. The catalytic metal is preferably selected from the group consisting of noble metals and transition metals, preferably palladium. The mechanical milling process includes milling the base material with a catalytic metal impregnated into a high-surface-area support to form the hydrogenation catalyst. In a preferred mechanical milling process, a zero-valent metal particle is provided as the base material, preferably having a particle size of less than about 10 microns, preferably 0.1 to 10 microns or smaller, prior to milling. The catalytic metal is supported on a conductive carbon support structure prior to milling. For example, palladium may be impregnated on a graphite support. Other support structures such as semiconductive metal oxides may also be used.

Quinn, Jacqueline↗
NASA NTRS1980

An information adaptive system study report and development plan

The purpose of the information adaptive system (IAS) study was to determine how some selected Earth resource applications may be processed onboard a spacecraft and to provide a detailed preliminary IAS design for these applications. Detailed investigations of a number of applications were conducted with regard to IAS and three were selected for further analysis. Areas of future research and development include algorithmic specifications, system design specifications, and IAS recommended time lines.

Ataras, W. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗