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Techno-Economic Renewable Energy Potential on Tribal Lands

Renewable energy technologies provide opportunities for diversification, energy independence, environmental sustainability, and new revenue streams for Native American Indian tribes and Alaska Native villages. Many of these lands are in areas with that have abundant renewable energy, such as wind, solar, and biomass. This study estimates the technical and economic potential for renewable energy development on tribal lands. It aims to support tribes in decision-making as they evaluate technologies, potential scales of development, and economic viability. The resources analyzed here include wind, solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP), woody biomass, biogas, geothermal, and hydropower. The study provides updated information to a previous renewable energy technical potential analysis on tribal lands, Geospatial Analysis of Renewable Energy Technical Potential on Tribal Lands (Doris et al. 2013). It includes current information, refined data, additional locations (in Alaska, for distributed generation only), and an expanded scope expansion that includes an economic evaluation of the renewable energy potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Socioeconomic Effects of Pension Spending: Evidence from Spain

The purpose of this study is to provide broader understanding of the significant role that the pension system has in the Spanish economy by estimating the sectoral production, employment and income sustained by pensioners' consumption. Based on input-output tables by the World Input-Output Database and consumption data from the Household Budget Survey by the Spanish Statistical Office, a demoeconomic model is applied to quantify the direct impacts, indirect impacts from interindustry links and induced impacts from income-consumption connections over a nine-year period (2006–2014). Then, the factors driving the evolution of total output, employment and value added during such period have been examined by using structural decomposition analysis. The growing participation of consumption by pensioner households in final demand had proven crucial during the 2008 crisis to alleviate the negative trend in production and employment derived from the collapse in consumption suffered by the rest of households. Determining the underlying factors driving changes in both employment and income during the 2008 crisis can be of interest in political decision-making on the sustainability of the Spanish pension system. The results of estimating both the employment and income supported by pensioners' consumption reveal the significant stabilizing effect of the public spending on pensions, particularly during the 2008 crisis. The current Spanish approach of attaining the pension system sustainability by merely reducing social protection costs ignores the adverse consequences of a lower pensioners' demand. This paper addresses an alternative view in which pension spending is not considered a burden on economic growth but rather a means of improving the level of production and employment.

employment↗

Supply Chain-Based Solution to Prevent Fuel Tax Evasion: Final Report

The primary source of funding for the United States transportation system is derived from motor fuel and other highway use taxes. Loss of revenue attributed to fuel-tax evasion has been assessed to be somewhere between 1 billion and 3 billion per year. Any solution that addresses this problem needs to include not only the tax-collection agencies and auditors, but also the carriers transporting oil products and the carriers customers. This report presents a system developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the Federal Highway Administration which has the potential to reduce or eliminate many fuel-tax evasion schemes. The solution balances the needs of tax-auditors and those of the fuel-hauling companies and their customers. The system has three main components. The on-board subsystem combined sensors, tracking and communication devices, and software (the on-board Evidential Reasoning System, or obERS) to detect, monitor, and geo-locate the transfer of fuel among different locations. The back office sub-system (boERS) used self-learning algorithms to determine the legitimacy of the fuel loading and offloading (important for tax auditors) and detect potential illicit operations such as fuel theft (important for carriers and their customers, and may justify the deployment costs). The third sub-system, the Fuel Distribution and Auditing System or FDAS, is a centralized database, which together with a user interface allows tax auditors to query the data submitted by the fuel-hauling companies and correlate different parameters to quickly identify any anomalies. Industry partners included Barger Transport of Weber City, Virginia (fleet); Air-Weigh, of Eugene, Oregon (and their wires and harnesses); Liquid Bulk Tank (LBT) of Omaha, Nebraska (three five-compartment trailers); and Innovative Software Engineering (ISE) of Coralville, Iowa(on-board telematics device and back-office system). ORNL conducted a pilot test with the three instrumented vehicles collecting real-world data during an eight-month period (October 2014 to June 2015). The vehicles logged a total of 375,000 miles and transported more than 7.5 million gallons of fuel. The drivers entered information on the telematics device about 77% of the time, with about 15% (10%) of the data showing at least one compartment with loading (offloading) valve activity, but not driver information entry for that compartment. Seven events (or about 0.7% of the trips) were identified by the boERS as having a missing fuel diversion number. The solution developed and tested in the pilot test had federal- and state-level tax auditors as its main audience. Nonetheless, the technology has to be adopted by the fuel carriers and therefore the solution had to address the needs of fuel-hauling companies and their customers (i.e., fuel theft and cocktailing). Sensors in the hatches allowed the obERS recognize when one of those were opened (always a suspicious activity, unless it happens at locations where maintenance is performed on the vehicle). The fuel-theft issue was addressed by a self-learning algorithm deployed on the boERS that continuously processed the data from the field to construct probability distributions of measures such as elapsed time of fuel loading and offloading by driver, vehicle, and compartment, valve actuation sequence, elapsed time between the first two valve actuations (by driver, compartment, and location), and other parameters. Probability thresholds, which can be set up by the carrier, determined how to classify the observed events. The boERS also kept track of valve sequencing at a given location and analyzed these actuations to help identify any suspicious activities. Technical and economic recommendations include: a) simplification of the driver data-entry task; b) reduction of system deployment cost; c) addition of capabilities that make the system more appealing to industry (i.e., identify and avoid fuel misdelivery); and d) incorporation of additional capabilities to the FDAS. Path to commercialization recommendations include: a) identify a company willing to further develop, test, and certify a hardened system with a price point the market will bear; b).transfer ERS to licensee; c) establish a fleet or fleets who want this technology for carrier benefits or trailer manufacturer who wants to offer it as optional technology; and d) identify a location for the deployment of FDAS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Productive Use of Energy in African Micro-Grids: Technical and Business Considerations

Demand for electricity from small industry and businesses, which is defined as the productive use of energy (PUE), is a key success factor for micro-grids. Because of the typically low energy usage of residential customers, without linkage to and support for these energy users, micro-grids are likely to struggle to reach the critical revenue needed for financial viability. This report is a resource entrepreneurs and developers can use to understand the technical and business model challenges related to PUE in smaller micro-grids. It focuses on small agricultural processing, and small industrial and commercial loads. This report examines best practices for promoting PUE and the business models used by developers. It starts with background information and a literature review followed by a discussion of key enterprise considerations for productive use (PU) including: value chain and business case analysis, enterprise development and training, appliance financing, and developers running PU businesses. Unlike many other reports on PUE, this report is based on application specific data. The report is also unique in that it provides actual customer demographics and load profiles. This report considers PUE from both business and technical perspectives, and it considers the interests of both the micro-grid operators and the microenterprises and entrepreneurs they serve. It looks at the service levels required by different PUs and the technical characteristics and challenges of different types of PU equipment. The report also includes examples of business cases for some of the most important PU opportunities, including milling, ice making, carpentry, egg incubation, and water treatment. This report is a resource that entrepreneurs, governments, and non-governmental organizations can use to help design programs to meet their individual goals of PUE in micro-grids and economic development in rural Africa. It can also be used by developers, engineers, and other organizations designing micro-grids to inform their technical and business decisions and to improve system design, reduce risk, and increase success with adding PU loads to both new and existing micro-grids.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy to Communities Program Short Introduction: Evaluation of Enhanced Geothermal System for Cornell District Heating [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Cornell University (Itaca, NY) community efforts in developing Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoir performance, by simulating fracture flow to estimate pressure drop, flow distribution, and heat extraction efficiency in fractured rock. Thermal drawdown modeling was used to assess long-term resource sustainability, while system optimization studies refined key parameters such as well configuration and flow rate to improve overall reservoir efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Human Missions to Europa and Titan - Why Not?

This report describes a long-term development plan to enable human exploration of the outer solar system, with a focus on Europa and Titan. These are two of the most interesting moons of Jupiter and Saturn, respectively, because they are the places in the solar system with the greatest potential for harboring extraterrestrial life. Since human expeditions to these worlds are considered impossible with current capabilities, the proposal of a well-organized sequence of steps towards making this a reality was formulated. The proposed Development Plan, entitled Theseus, is the outcome of a recent multinational study by a group of students in the framework of the Master of Space Studies (MSS) 2004 course at the International Space University (ISU). The Theseus Program includes the necessary development strategies in key scientific and technological areas that are essential for identifying the requirements for the exploration of the outer planetary moons. Some of the topics that are analysed throughout the plan include: scientific observations at Europa and Titan, advanced propulsion and nuclear power systems, in-situ resource utilization, radiation mitigation techniques, closed life support systems, habitation for long-term spaceflight, and artificial gravity. In addition to the scientific and technological aspects of the Theseus Program, it was recognized that before any research and development work may begin, some level of program management must be established. Within this chapter, legal issues, national and international policy, motivation, organization and management, economic considerations, outreach, education, ethics, and social implications are all considered with respect to four possible future scenarios which enable human missions to the outer solar system. The final chapter of the report builds upon the foundations set by Theseus through a case study. This study illustrates how such accomplishments could influence a mission to Europa to search for evidence of life in its subsurface oceans. The future remains unpredictable, as does the realization of any of these possibilities. However, projects such as this remind us that the final frontier for humans is truly outer space, and only our imagination will determine where the frontier stops. We can dream of visiting other planetary systems and perhaps even galaxies, but we must begin closer, and considering the scope of our known universe, Europa and Titan are very close indeed.

FROM↗

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Arctic↗

Wind Technology Modeling Within the System Advisor Model (SAM) (Poster)

This poster provides detail for implementation and the underlying methodology for modeling wind power generation performance in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM's wind power model allows users to assess projects involving one or more large or small wind turbines with any of the detailed options for residential, commercial, or utility financing. The model requires information about the wind resource, wind turbine specifications, wind farm layout (if applicable), and costs, and provides analysis to compare the absolute or relative impact of these inputs. SAM is a system performance and economic model designed to facilitate analysis and decision-making for project developers, financers, policymakers, and energy researchers. The user pairs a generation technology with a financing option (residential, commercial, or utility) to calculate the cost of energy over the multi-year project period. Specifically, SAM calculates the value of projects which buy and sell power at retail rates for residential and commercial systems, and also for larger-scale projects which operate through a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a utility. The financial model captures complex financing and rate structures, taxes, and incentives.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Potential Impacts of Transportation and Building Electrification on the Grid: A Review of Electrification Projections and their Effects on Grid Infrastructure, Operation, and Planning

This paper highlights the main impacts of transportation and building electrification on electricity grid infrastructure, operations, and planning. We focus on which electric technologies are expected to grow, how electrification will impact electricity demand and grid activities, and which solutions might improve the integration of these technologies. Recent industry reports show increasing projections of electrification technologies in the coming decades. Studies show that increased demand from electrification will likely require grid capacity expansion and make grid operations and planning more challenging; however, multiple non-wires solutions exist to ensure integration is efficient and cost-effective. Electrification of space heating and especially transportation is expected to have the largest impact on electricity demand in the near future. Uncontrolled electric vehicle charging poses a significant challenge to grid operations, but control strategies create an opportunity for improved efficiency. Other insights include a high level of uncertainty in electrification adoption and potential benefits of combining electrification technologies with renewable generation and energy storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Region-Specific Merchant Hydrogen Market Assessment and Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrolytic Hydrogen Generation: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00751

Utilities need to recover value from baseload and some renewable assets even when the electricity is curtailed. The declining cost of renewables (particularly solar), the persistently low-cost of natural gas, and the declining electricity demand, have all worked to lower the price of electricity. Furthermore, the baseload assets have a high turndown cost, which is not reflected in the low market electricity prices. One option for utilizing the curtailed electricity is hydrogen generation. One important aspect of this project will be to provide a “go/no-go” recommendation on the economic feasibility of pursuing hydrogen generation vs. other markets that could offtake curtailed electricity or nuclear steam. This project will specifically assess the opportunities for hydrogen production and use in the service territories of Southern Company Services (SCS), Exelon SBC, and Xcel Energy. Each utility partner represents a different mix of generation fleets: Exelon has significant nuclear assets, Xcel is primarily renewables (wind) with some nuclear, and SCS represents both a renewables fleet and a heavily baseload fleet, which includes significant nuclear. The Contractors will conduct the study of hydrogen market opportunities by first considering the approximate electricity demand and price profiles for the year, and power generation capacity that can be used to produce hydrogen. Therefore, a profile for hydrogen generation will also be developed to better understand the quantity and timing of hydrogen production. Once the hydrogen production schedule is estimated, hydrogen storage requirements can be determined. This effort will provide sufficient information to make a go/no-go decision on moving ahead with a detailed regional case study for hydrogen production in any of the three utility areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Stepping into the Midwest Bioeconomy: Stakeholder Engagement and Geospatial Tools to Assist in Perennial Bioenergy Crop Decision Making and Entrepreneurship

This project, “Ecosystem Services and Farm Entrepreneurship Technical Assistance,” was a three-year project originally planned for FY22–FY24. Due to a late start and a few extensions, it is being completed in early FY25. This project explored opportunities to support the deployment of a bioeconomy with a circular, more sustainable supply chain. Using a tool developed by Argonne to identify agricultural areas suitable for use in the bioeconomy, we sought to create opportunities in the bioeconomy as biomass producers, bioenergy users, and environmental entrepreneurs. We proposed to focus at the beginning on enhancing the tool’s capabilities, while engaging with key stakeholders to improve and expand the tool’s functionality for all potential stakeholders in the bioeconomy. We believe that expanding our tools and technologies, coupled with conversations in agricultural spaces, will be needed as we continue to explore how best to offer farmers whole-of supply-chain opportunities to participate in the bioeconomy. Through this project we have continued to gain a better understanding of the ways in which farmers, landowners, bioenergy users, and environmental entrepreneurs may approach the bioeconomy. In addition, as we improve our analytic toolkit, we can continue to refine our communication and the ways in which we can valuate the bioeconomy. Refining these tools allows us to dive deeper into conversations around plausible policies and drivers for future bioeconomy investment and engagement by stakeholders. By working with farmers and agricultural landowners to enable a sustainable bioeconomy business model, enhance their energy options, and recover resources from their waste streams, this project directly responds to the Bioenergy Technology Office’s (BETO) priorities of building a resilient energy economy. It addresses BETO’s focus on fostering the development and adoption of energy technologies that enable the conversion of waste to energy, efficient land use, and robust job creation. By establishing a technical assistance program that develops capabilities and practices in agricultural areas to implement a bioeconomy future, this program will develop an important linkage between technology being developed at U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories and the agricultural communities of the Midwest. This project focuses on farmers with lower productivity farmland. Because less productive lands create a more difficult revenue stream for conventional crops, these farmers may therefore be more open to alternative agricultural land management regimes. Consequently, the technical assistance program and the methodologies for targeting perennial bioenergy crop application on marginal land provide a distinct opportunity to engage with and invest in the bioeconomy in these economically stressed areas. Stakeholders in this project include farmers and landowners, local conservation organizations (NRCS, SWCS, etc.), universities, non-profit environmental and agricultural entities, farm consultants, environmental regulators, and industry, including the industries working on conversion technologies, anaerobic digestion, pyrolysis, and biochar generation, and the companies interested in trading or purchasing/supporting the valuation of ecosystem services (ES).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Does geography matter? A study of technological learning and innovation in the U.S. Solar photovoltaic balance-of-systems (PV BOS) industry

Different learning channels (i.e., learning from upstream actors, local network, global codified knowledge, etc.) coexist in firms’ technological innovation processes. Although firms are exposed to globalization and convenient communication and transportation tools, researchers still argue about the role of geography in technology innovation. Geographic proximity can facilitate knowledge spillover and network-building. Localized learning and the significance of geography indicate the importance of local knowledge in innovative activities. Local knowledge tends to be more closely aligned with local firms’ technological demand and easier to understand and absorb, because they are created and applied in the same context. However, following Schumpeter, innovation researchers believe that diverse knowledge, especially knowledge from external industries and geographically distant places, is a valuable source for innovation, especially disruptive innovation. Therefore, firms must balance different learning channels, especially between localized learning and global learning. However, it is still unclear about the extent to which localized learning is important for technology innovations and which factors influence the degree of localized learning. Meanwhile, most studies in the area of localized learning usually take no account of the international dimension and the interdependent of knowledge at different geographic scales. Different learning channels (i.e., learning from upstream actors, local network, global codified knowledge, etc.) coexist in firms’ technological innovation processes. Although firms are exposed to globalization and convenient communication and transportation tools, researchers still argue about the role of geography in technology innovation. Geographic proximity can facilitate knowledge spillover and network-building. Localized learning and the significance of geography indicate the importance of local knowledge in innovative activities. Local knowledge tends to be more closely aligned with local firms’ technological demand and easier to understand and absorb, because they are created and applied in the same context. However, following Schumpeter, innovation researchers believe that diverse knowledge, especially knowledge from external industries and geographically distant places, is a valuable source for innovation, especially disruptive innovation. Therefore, firms must balance different learning channels, especially between localized learning and global learning. However, it is still unclear about the extent to which localized learning is important for technology innovations and which factors influence the degree of localized learning. Meanwhile, most studies in the area of localized learning usually take no account of the international dimension and the interdependent of knowledge at different geographic scales. To address this research gap, this paper empirically investigated firms’ learning and innovation processes in relation to the geography. The aim is to answer the following three questions: 1) how does geographic distance influence knowledge spillover; 2) how technological characteristics influence knowledge acquisition choices as regards local vs. non-local knowledge? and 3) how do local and non-local knowledge affect the quality of innovation? The subject of our empirical inquiry is photovoltaic balance-of-systems (PV BOS) components. This choice is primarily motivated by two factors: (1) large-scale deployment of distributed solar PV technologies is widely considered to be an important piece in addressing the environmental impacts of the electricity sector, making PV an important technology to study; furthermore, there is a general consensus that the biggest barrier for a wider deployment of PV is the high price of non-module components, and (2) technological aspects of non-module components of PV systems make local conditions (climate, regulation, learning networks, etc.) salient, thus affording a rich empirical setting to explore the geography-innovation-economy interactions at the local level. We find that the localization effect of technological learning in the solar PV BOS industry is at state level, the number of citations-based linkages decreases with distance, and we also find that international knowledge significantly contributes to the quality of patents, which suggests that state border might be a barrier of current knowledge spillover, and only focusing on local innovation networks is not sufficient for promoting PV BOS innovation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What Were the Cost Drivers for Publicly Accessible Charging Installations?

Publicly accessible EVSE stations in The EV Project are defined as those installed for businesses, institutions, and municipalities to provide charging for any plug-in electric vehicle (PEV). Typically, no formal relationship exists between the charging site host and the PEV driver utilizing the EVSE. Whereas, fleet, workplace, and residential charging stations are intended to serve a restricted population of PEVs with drivers formally related to the charging site host in some manner. Costs for installation of publicly accessible EVSE units were an important consideration of The EV Project, because these costs had an impact on host participation and, subsequently, on the public’s perception of PEV adoption. In an effort to achieve the objective of establishing and studying a rich infrastructure of publicly accessible charging stations, The EV Project intended to make AC Level 2 EVSE free to the host; including installation. This would have reduced the economic influence on the host’s decision to install a station at locations that the EV Micro Climate® planning process identified as desirable. Although The EV Project provided a significant allowance toward the cost of installation, in many cases, actual installation costs exceeded that allowance. Other concerns from prospective charging site hosts included the observation that there were not enough PEVs to create demand for stations, and hosts were being requested to effectively eliminate a customer parking space to be designated for PEV charging.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Wind Energy Workforce Gap in the United States

There are more than 100,000 jobs in the U.S. wind industry today, and the second-fastest growing job in the United States in 2017 was wind technician. A vibrant wind industry needs workers, and students who graduate from wind energy education and training programs need jobs. The goal of this research is to better understand the needs of wind-related businesses, education and training requirements, and the make-up of current and future domestic workforces. Educators are developing and training future workers. Educational institutions need to know which courses to provide to connect students with potential employers and to justify their wind energy programs by being able to place graduates into well-paying jobs. In interviews with 250 wind energy firms and 50 educational institutions, many respondents reported difficulty hiring qualified candidates, while many educational institutions reported graduates not finding jobs in the wind industry. We refer to this mismatch as the 'workforce gap.' This conference poster explores this gap.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Waste Carbon Gas Upgrading via Acetogens 2.3.2.106

Waste carbon gas represents a large and diverse set of feedstocks that could be captured and turned into useful products. This includes waste gas emitted from industrial activity, syngas from burned plant biomass or processed municipal waste, and electrochemical reduction of CO2. Currently, carbon gas is being microbially converted to ethanol as a main product. However, ethanol is a lower value product with a limited market size. While these microbes can make other higher value products, there are no commercial processes for generating these other products, leaving a gap in understanding potential implementation for commercialization. Expanding the products microbially produced from waste carbon gas requires several steps before commercial implementation. We are studying the acetogen Clostridium ljungdahlii as a biocatalyst to convert waste carbon gas to the chemical 3-hydroxybutyrate (3HB), a plastic monomer and fuel precursor. For that, we are studying and engineering microbial characteristics for novel 3HB product formation from waste gas streams. This includes metabolic characterization, genetic engineering, gas fermentation scaling, as well as technoeconomic and life cycle analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Projections of Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics

To accurately represent how conservation and efficiency policies affect energy demand, both direct and indirect impacts need to be included in the accounting. The indirect impacts are defined here as the resource savings that accrue over the fuel production chain, which when added to the energy consumed at the point of use, constitute the full-fuel- cycle (FFC) energy. This paper uses the accounting framework developed in (Coughlin 2012) to calculate FFC energy metrics as time series for the period 2010-2040. The approach is extended to define FFC metrics for the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other air-borne pollutants. The primary focus is the types of energy used in buildings and industrial processes, mainly natural gas and electricity. The analysis includes a discussion of the fuel production chain for coal, which is used extensively for electric power generation, and for diesel and fuel oil, which are used in mining, oil and gas operations, and fuel distribution. Estimates of the energy intensity parameters make use of data and projections from the Energy Information Agency’s National Energy Modeling System, with calculations based on information from the Annual Energy Outlook 2012.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

WBS 4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis

The main objective of this project (following the 2017 BETO Program Peer-Review) is to provide BETO with a coherent methodology and modeling framework based on life cycle (LCA) and economic input-output analysis, tested and vetted with stakeholders, to better understand the effects of an expanding U.S. bioeconomy at specific levels including economic dimensions such as jobs, gross domestic product (value added), and environmental criteria such as air pollutant emissions, water and land use, ecotoxicity, and others. This supports a 2019 milestone in the BETO MYP and simultaneously addresses a gap previously identified in the BETO program and highlighted, e.g., by BETO Program Peer Reviewers in 2015 and 2017. To fill in this gap, NREL started collaborating with developers of the national level U.S. Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (USEEIO) model in FY18. This peer-reviewed, open source model is based on publicly available data, and developed and maintained by U.S. EPA where it has been the basis for EPA's Sustainable Material Management analyses and program. Also, USEEIO was initially designed for use with EPA's Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI). It aligns well with similar efforts including the Federal LCA Commons and the Sustainable Acquisition Program at the Department of Defense (DoD). In FY18, NREL convened stakeholders from federal agencies, universities, and private sector entities to identify and form a common understanding of (1) models describing the U.S. economy and how to build off of them, (2) a bioeconomy definition for the next modeling steps, (3) the (sub)sectors that can/should be used in the framework, and (4) opportunities for collaboration and data sharing. NREL then created a first order model by disaggregating, i.e., separating the economic activities associated with and attributed to a selected product of the bioeconomy: corn ethanol. Corn ethanol is well studied and has a significant amount of public, validated economic industry information. This is important as disaggregation is a critical step in creating a representative and accurate framework. Corn ethanol served as a validation test case for the method and framework. By the end of FY18, the team was able to generate several scenarios for corn ethanol on national and selected regional levels providing results on the absolute and relative (Megajoule) effects in several environmental and economic impact categories. A second objective of the project is to inform BETO's strategic decision making, specifically its sustainability research portfolio, by engaging in, evaluating, and synthesizing selected global multi-year activities from the perspectives of a variety of complex multilateral and multi-stakeholder processes that pertain to bioenergy. This helps to (1) identify gaps, barriers, and critical areas for future BETO bioenergy and sustainability assessments; (2) identify opportunities and challenges to a sustainable U.S. bioeconomy; and (3) contribute to and disseminate BETO information to and from major global bioenergy and sustainability efforts. This project's work with multilateral organizations ensures that U.S. science-based viewpoints are considered and helps to balance the influence of the large number of countries with the same centralized philosophy. This engagement builds a more solid foundation for sustainable biomass and bioenergy systems in the U.S. and in the world. Working with multi-lateral, international platforms including IEA Bioenergy, Global Bio-Energy Partnership (GBEP), and their partner organizations also allows engagement with important stakeholders including policy makers, industry, NGOs, and academia.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗