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NASA NTRS2011

Canopy Spectral Invariants: Application to Classification of Forest Types from Hyperspectral Data - Part 2

Many studies have been conducted to demonstrate the ability of hyperspectral data to discriminate plant dominant species. Most of them have employed the use of empirically based techniques, which are site specific, requires some initial training based on characteristics of known leaf and/or canopy spectra and therefore may not be extendable to operational use or adapted to changing or unknown land cover. In this paper we propose a physically based approach for separation of dominant forest type using hyperspectral data. The radiative transfer theory of canopy spectral invariants underlies the approach, which facilitates parameterization of the canopy reflectance in terms of the leaf spectral scattering and two spectrally invariant and structurally varying variables - recollision and directional escape probabilities. The methodology is based on the idea of retrieving spectrally invariant parameters from hyperspectral data first, and then relating their values to structural characteristics of three-dimensional canopy structure. Theoretical and empirical analyses of ground and airborne data acquired by Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over two sites in New England, USA, suggest that the canopy spectral invariants convey information about canopy structure at both the macro- and micro-scales. The total escape probability (one minus recollision probability) varies as a power function with the exponent related to the number of nested hierarchical levels present in the pixel. Its base is a geometrical mean of the local total escape probabilities and accounts for the cumulative effect of canopy structure over a wide range of scales. The ratio of the directional to the total escape probability becomes independent of the number of hierarchical levels and is a function of the canopy structure at the macro-scale such as tree spatial distribution, crown shape and size, within-crown foliage density and ground cover. These properties allow for the natural separation of dominant forest classes based on the location of points on the total escape probability vs the ratio log-log plane.

Schull, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Generalized Maximum Entropy

A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

Cheeseman, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Dreher, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2004

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2004

Force Density Function Relationships in 2-D Granular Media

An integral transform relationship is developed to convert between two important probability density functions (distributions) used in the study of contact forces in granular physics. Developing this transform has now made it possible to compare and relate various theoretical approaches with one another and with the experimental data despite the fact that one may predict the Cartesian probability density and another the force magnitude probability density. Also, the transforms identify which functional forms are relevant to describe the probability density observed in nature, and so the modified Bessel function of the second kind has been identified as the relevant form for the Cartesian probability density corresponding to exponential forms in the force magnitude distribution. Furthermore, it is shown that this transform pair supplies a sufficient mathematical framework to describe the evolution of the force magnitude distribution under shearing. Apart from the choice of several coefficients, whose evolution of values must be explained in the physics, this framework successfully reproduces the features of the distribution that are taken to be an indicator of jamming and unjamming in a granular packing. Key words. Granular Physics, Probability Density Functions, Fourier Transforms

Youngquist, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human‐exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human‐volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human‐volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic‐spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC‐ 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury‐risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

Wells, Jesica↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Containment Assurance Risk Framework of the Mars Sample Return Program

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims at bringing rock and atmospheric samples from Mars to Earth through a series of robotic missions. These missions would collect the samples being cached and deposited on Martian soil by the Perseverance rover, place them in a container, and launch them into Martian orbit for subsequent capture by an orbiter that would bring them back. Given there exists a non-zero probability that the samples contain biological material, precautions are being taken to design systems that would break the chain of contact between Mars and Earth. These include techniques such as sterilization of Martian particles, redundant containment vessels, and a robust reentry capsule capable of accurate landings without a parachute. Requirements exist that the probability of containment not assured of Martian-contaminated material into Earth’s biosphere be less than one in a million. To demonstrate compliance with this strict requirement, a statistical framework was developed to assess the likelihood of containment loss during each sample return phase and make a statement about the total combined mission probability of containment not assured. The work presented here describes this framework, which considers failure modes or fault conditions that can initiate failure sequences ultimately leading to containment not assured. Reliability estimates are generated from databases, design heritage, component specifications, or expert opinion in the form of probability density functions or point estimates and provided as inputs to the mathematical models that simulate the different failure sequences. The probabilistic outputs are then combined following the logic of several fault trees to compute the ultimate probability of containment not assured. Given the multidisciplinary nature of the problem and the different types of mathematical models used, the statistical tools needed for analysis are required to be computationally efficient. While standard Monte Carlo approaches are used for fast models, a multi-fidelity approach to rare event probabilities is proposed for expensive models. In this paradigm, inexpensive low-fidelity models are developed for computational acceleration purposes while the expensive high-fidelity model is kept in the loop to retain accuracy in the results. This work presents an example of end-to-end application of this framework highlighting the computational benefits of a multi-fidelity approach.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cyber-Physical Correlations for Infrastructure Resilience: A Game-Theoretic Approach

In several critical infrastructures, the cyber and physical parts are correlated so that disruptions to one affect the other and hence the whole system. These correlations may be exploited to strategically launch components attacks, and hence must be accounted for ensuring the infrastructure resilience, specified by its survival probability. We characterize the cyber-physical interactions at two levels: (i) the failure correlation function specifies the conditional survival probability of cyber sub-infrastructure given the physical sub-infrastructure as a function of their marginal probabilities, and (ii) the individual survival probabilities of both sub-infrastructures are characterized by first-order differential conditions. We formulate a resilience problem for infrastructures composed of discrete components as a game between the provider and attacker, wherein their utility functions consist of an infrastructure survival probability term and a cost term expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions and sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost term, correlation function and sub-infrastructure survival probabilities. These results generalize earlier ones based on linear failure correlation functions and independent component failures. We apply the results to models of cloud computing infrastructures and energy grids.

cyber-physical infrastructures↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Comparative Study of Automated Infrasound Detectors - PMCC and AFD with Analyst Review.

Automated detections calculated by the progressive multi-channel correlation (PMCC) method (Cansi, 1995) and the adaptive F detector (AFD) (Arrowsmith et al., 2009) are compared to the signals identified by five independent analysts. Each detector was applied to a four-hour time sequence recorded by the Korean infrasound array CHNAR. This array was used because it is composed of both small (<100 m) and large (~1000 m) aperture element spacing. The four hour time sequence contained a number of easily identified signals under noise conditions that have average RMS amplitudes varied from 1.2 to 4.5 mPa (1 to 5 Hz), estimated with running five-minute window. The effectiveness of the detectors was estimated for the small aperture, large aperture, small aperture combined with the large aperture, and full array. The full and combined arrays performed the best for AFD under all noise conditions while the large aperture array had the poorest performance for both detectors. PMCC produced similar results as AFD under the lower noise conditions, but did not produce as dramatic an increase in detections using the full and combined arrays. Both automated detectors and the analysts produced a decrease in detections under the higher noise conditions. Comparing the detection probabilities with Estimated Receiver Operating Characteristic (EROC) curves we found that the smaller value of consistency for PMCC and the larger p-value for AFD had the highest detection probability. These parameters produced greater changes in detection probability than estimates of the false alarm rate. The detection probability was impacted the most by noise level, with low noise (average RMS amplitude of 1.7 mPa) having an average detection probability of ~40% and high noise (average RMS amplitude of 2.9 mPa) average detection probability of ~23%.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Artificial neural network based isotopic analysis of airborne radioactivity measurement for radiological incident detection

Responders need tools to rapidly detect and identify airborne alpha radioactivity during consequence management scenarios. Traditional continuous air monitor systems used for this purpose compute the net counts in various energy windows to determine the presence of specified isotopes, such as 235U, 239Pu, and 241Am. These calculations rely on having a well-calibrated detector, which is challenging in low-background environments. Here an alternative approach of using artificial neural networks to classify alpha spectra is presented. Two network architectures, fully connected and convolutional networks, were trained to classify alpha spectra into four categories: background and background plus the three isotopes above. Sources were injected into measured background at various fractions of the derived response level (DRL) corresponding to early-phase Protective Action Guides. The convolutional network identifies all sources at 1% of the DRL with average probability of detection of 95% and false alarm probability of 1%. Further, the network identifies sources ranging between 0.25% and 1% of the DRL with higher than 80% probability of detection and lower than 7% false alarm probability. Most significantly, the network performance improves in low-count background conditions, increasing its minimum probability of detection to 93% and reducing the false alarm probabilities to lower than 0.25%. These results show that, once trained on datasets representing a range of detection scenarios, artificial neural networks can accurately identify alpha isotopes of interest without the need for detector calibration.

Woldegiorgis, Surafel F.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Treatment of Nonuniform Temperature Distribution by Subgroup Method

The subgroup method divides an energy group into several subgroups according to the magnitude of the cross section. The subgroup fixed source equation is formulated on the energy range of a subgroup, the ratio of which to the energy range of an energy group is defined as subgroup probability. Typically the physical probability table or the mathematical probability table is applied. However, both of the tables are not guaranteed to share the same set of subgroup probabilities for a resonant nuclide at different temperatures. This means that the subgroup fixed source equation cannot be formulated and the subgroup method will not work when the temperature distribution is nonuniform. To overcome this defect, the subgroup method based on partial cross section fit scheme (PXSFS) and the simplified partial cross section fit scheme (SPXSFS) are proposed. These methods fit the cross sections at different temperatures as partial cross sections to share a same set of subgroup probabilities. The new methods is compared to the conventional subgroup method (CSM) based on physical probability table and the preexisting methods: the correlation model (CM), the subgroup level adjustment scheme (SLAS) and the number density adjustment scheme (NDAS). The numerical results show that the new methods can better predict the spatial dependent reaction rate than preexisting methods. Within these two methods, the simplified scheme consumes less time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

On the unique mapping relationship between initial and final quantum states

In its standard formulation, quantum mechanics presents a very serious inconvenience: given a quantum system, there is no possibility at all to unambiguously (causally) connect a particular feature of its final state with some specific section of its initial state. This constitutes a practical limitation, for example, in numerical analyses of quantum systems, which often make necessary the use of some extra assistance from classical methodologies. Here it is shown how the Bohmian formulation of quantum mechanics removes the ambiguity of quantum mechanics, providing a consistent and clear answer to such a question without abandoning the quantum framework. More specifically, this formulation allows to define probability tubes, along which the enclosed probability keeps constant in time all the way through as the system evolves in configuration space. These tubes have the interesting property that once their boundary is defined at a given time, they are uniquely defined at any time. As a consequence, it is possible to determine final restricted (or partial) probabilities directly from localized sets of (Bohmian) initial conditions on the system initial state. Here, these facts are illustrated by means of two simple yet physically insightful numerical examples: tunneling transmission and grating diffraction. -- Highlights: •The concept of quantum probability tube is introduced. •Quantum tubes result from the evolution of a separatrix set of initial Bohmian conditions. •Probabilities inside these sets remain constant along the corresponding quantum tubes. •Particular features of final states are then uniquely linked to specific regions of initial states. •Tunneling and grating diffraction are analyzed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2012

Optimized Planning Target Volume for Intact Cervical Cancer

Purpose: To model interfraction clinical target volume (CTV) variation in patients with intact cervical cancer and design a planning target volume (PTV) that minimizes normal tissue dose while maximizing CTV coverage. Methods and Materials: We analyzed 50 patients undergoing external-beam radiotherapy for intact cervical cancer using daily online cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCTs (n = 972) for each patient were rigidly registered to the planning CT. The CTV was delineated on the planning CT (CTV{sub 0}) and the set of CBCTs ({l_brace}CTV{sub 1}-CTV{sub 25}{r_brace}). Manual (n = 98) and automated (n = 668) landmarks were placed over the surface of CTV{sub 0} with reference to defined anatomic structures. Normal vectors were extended from each landmark, and the minimum length required for a given probability of encompassing CTV{sub 1}-CTV{sub 25} was computed. The resulting expansions were used to generate an optimized PTV. Results: The mean (SD; range) normal vector length to ensure 95% coverage was 4.3 mm (2.7 mm; 1-16 mm). The uniform expansion required to ensure 95% probability of CTV coverage was 13 mm. An anisotropic margin of 20 mm anteriorly and posteriorly and 10 mm superiorly, inferiorly, and laterally also would have ensured a 95% probability of CTV coverage. The volume of the 95% optimized PTV (1470 cm{sup 3}) was significantly lower than both the anisotropic PTV (2220 cm{sup 3}) and the uniformly expanded PTV (2110 cm{sup 3}) (p < 0.001). For a 95% probability of CTV coverage, normal lengths of 1-3 mm were found along the superior and lateral regions of CTV{sub 0}, 5-10 mm along the interfaces of CTV{sub 0} with the bladder and rectum, and 10-14 mm along the anterior surface of CTV{sub 0} at the level of the uterus. Conclusion: Optimizing PTV definition according to surface landmarking resulted in a high probability of CTV coverage with reduced PTV volumes. Our results provide data justifying planning margins to use in practice and clinical trials.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of HCl on Au(111) surface

The six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative chemisorption of HCl on Au(111) are carried out using the time-dependent wave-packet approach, based on an accurate PES which was recently developed by neural network fitting to density functional theory energy points. The influence of vibrational excitation and rotational orientation of HCl on the reactivity is investigated by calculating the exact six-dimensional dissociation probabilities, as well as the four-dimensional fixed-site dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of HCl enhances the reactivity and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. A new interesting site-averaged effect is found for the title molecule-surface system that one can essentially reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability by averaging the four-dimensional dissociation probabilities over 25 fixed sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Single-electron tunneling by using a two-dimensional Corbino nano-scale disk

We investigate a single-electron tunneling effect of two-dimensional electron systems formed in the Corbino nano-scale disk. By controlling bias and gate voltages, the transistor using this effect is able to control electrons one by one. The present study focuses on the electronic transmission probability affected by the charging energy in the Corbino-type single-electron transistor. We reformulated the Schrödinger equation for an electron in the Corbino disk in order to consider the effect of the curvature of the disk, taking into account the charging effect on the performance of the Corbino-type single-electron transistor. We formulated the transmission probability of the electron by applying the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) method. The electron’s energy in the formula of the transmission probability is then associated to the energy eigenvalue of the Schrödinger equation for an electron in an effective confining potential. We numerically solved the Schrödinger equation to evaluate the transmission probability. Our results show that the transmission probability strongly depends on the charging energy stored in the Corbino disk depending on its size.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE M31 VELOCITY VECTOR. III. FUTURE MILKY WAY M31-M33 ORBITAL EVOLUTION, MERGING, AND FATE OF THE SUN

We study the future orbital evolution and merging of the Milky Way (MW)-M31-M33 system, using a combination of collisionless N-body simulations and semi-analytic orbit integrations. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the consequences of varying all relevant initial phase-space and mass parameters within their observational uncertainties. The observed M31 transverse velocity from Papers I and II implies that the MW and M31 will merge t = 5.86{sup +1.61}{sub -0.72} Gyr from now. The first pericenter occurs at t = 3.87{sup +0.42}{sub -0.32} Gyr, at a pericenter distance of r = 31.0{sup +38.0}{sub -19.8} kpc. In 41% of Monte Carlo orbits, M31 makes a direct hit with the MW, defined here as a first-pericenter distance less than 25 kpc. For the M31-M33 system, the first-pericenter time and distance are t = 0.85{sup +0.18}{sub -0.13} Gyr and r = 80.8{sup +42.2}{sub -31.7} kpc. By the time M31 gets to its first pericenter with the MW, M33 is close to its second pericenter with M31. For the MW-M33 system, the first-pericenter time and distance are t = 3.70{sup +0.74}{sub -0.46} Gyr and r = 176.0{sup +239.0}{sub -136.9} kpc. The most likely outcome is for the MW and M31 to merge first, with M33 settling onto an orbit around them that may decay toward a merger later. However, there is a 9% probability that M33 makes a direct hit with the MW at its first pericenter, before M31 gets to or collides with the MW. Also, there is a 7% probability that M33 gets ejected from the Local Group, temporarily or permanently. The radial mass profile of the MW-M31 merger remnant is significantly more extended than the original profiles of either the MW or M31, and suggests that the merger remnant will resemble an elliptical galaxy. The Sun will most likely ({approx}85% probability) end up at a larger radius from the center of the MW-M31 merger remnant than its current distance from the MW center, possibly further than 50 kpc ({approx}10% probability). There is a {approx}20% probability that the Sun will at some time in the next 10 Gyr find itself moving through M33 (within 10 kpc), but while dynamically still bound to the MW-M31 merger remnant. The arrival and possible collision of M31 (and possibly M33) with the MW is the next major cosmic event affecting the environment of our Sun and solar system that can be predicted with some certainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

BANYAN. II. Very low mass and substellar candidate members to nearby, young kinematic groups with previously known signs of youth

We present Bayesian Analysis for Nearby Young AssociatioNs II (BANYAN II), a modified Bayesian analysis for assessing the membership of later-than-M5 objects to any of several Nearby Young Associations (NYAs). In addition to using kinematic information (from sky position and proper motion), this analysis exploits 2MASS-WISE color-magnitude diagrams in which old and young objects follow distinct sequences. As an improvement over our earlier work, the spatial and kinematic distributions for each association are now modeled as ellipsoids whose axes need not be aligned with the Galactic coordinate axes, and we use prior probabilities matching the expected populations of the NYAs considered versus field stars. We present an extensive contamination analysis to characterize the performance of our new method. We find that Bayesian probabilities are generally representative of contamination rates, except when a parallax measurement is considered. In this case contamination rates become significantly smaller and hence Bayesian probabilities for NYA memberships are pessimistic. We apply this new algorithm to a sample of 158 objects from the literature that are either known to display spectroscopic signs of youth or have unusually red near-infrared colors for their spectral type. Based on our analysis, we identify 25 objects as new highly probable candidates to NYAs, including a new M7.5 bona fide member to Tucana-Horologium, making it the latest-type member. In addition, we reveal that a known L2γ dwarf is co-moving with a bright M5 dwarf, and we show for the first time that two of the currently known ultra red L dwarfs are strong candidates to the AB Doradus moving group. Several objects identified here as highly probable members to NYAs could be free-floating planetary-mass objects if their membership is confirmed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗