Optimized Cost/Performance Design Methodology: Volume 3 - Concept Analysis and Model Development, Book 1 - Concept Analysis
Concept analysis for optimized cost orbital space transportation system
Source record↗
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Results for “Model optimization”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Alice
SAND2025-00233O Alice is a PyTorch optimizer that helps improve the performance of machine learning models. It focuses on optimizing the process of training these models by using a special technique called the curvature of expectation. This technique allows Alice to make better decisions during the training process, leading to more accurate predictions. By using Alice, researchers and developers can potentially achieve better results and speed up the optimization of machine learning models. It's like having a smarter assistant that helps you train your models more effectively. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Duersch, Jed↗
Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model
This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.
Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
Bayesian D‐Optimal Designs for Gaussian Process Surrogate Models
Computer experiments often employ space-filling strategies to create surrogate models with strong predictive performance. The impact of model parameter estimation for Gaussian process surrogates, however, is often overlooked. Obtaining a better initial estimate of the covariance lengthscale parameter, θ, can greatly improve the resulting Gaussian process fit through more effective sequential acquisitions during active learning. In this work, we propose a novel initial design maximizing the Bayesian D-optimality criterion of the Gaussian process lengthscale parameter. Previously published results have shown the emphasis on lengthscale estimation to be promising, but relied on an empirically driven design creation process. Our Bayesian D-optimal designs are rooted in information theory and lead to more informative sequential acquisitions by improving lengthscale estimation. In many cases, these gains eventually result in better surrogates than those seeded with space-filling initial designs. Furthermore, Bayesian D-optimal designs can be tailored to either isotropic or anisotropic covariance structures, and the Bayesian framework enables the inclusion of prior knowledge in the design process, offering greater flexibility and adaptability. Through several simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian D-optimal designs in terms of both lengthscale estimation accuracy and predictive performance during active learning.
Bayesian experimental design↗
Optimizing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with OpenMP Offload and Codee
Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) utilizes shared memory (OpenMP) and distributed memory (MPI) parallelisms. To take advantage of GPU resources on the Perlmutter supercomputer at NERSC, we port parts of the computationally expensive routine Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics (FSBM) to NVIDIA GPUs using OpenMP device offloading directives. To facilitate this process, we explore a workflow for optimization which uses both runtime profilers and a static code inspection tool Codee to refactor the subroutine. We observe an 2.24x overall speedup for the CONUS-12km storm test case.
Wichitrnithed, Chayanon (Namo) [Odin Institute]↗
Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization
This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.
optimization↗
Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science
Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.
Physics↗
2023 FORCE Development Status Update
Technical and economic analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) using software models is a complex process requiring multiple commodity market decision analysis, optimal control, process modeling, and stochastic analysis. Many assumptions used in traditional energy analysis tools do not hold in future energy markets with significant storage and variable renewable energy sources (VRE), let alone with multiple commodity markets. Capturing these intricate elements for accurate techno-economic analysis of IES led to the development of the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tool suite under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems crosscutting technology program. With the aim of a full framework release in 2025, many improvements to the FORCE tool suite were developed in fiscal year 2023 (FY23). These improvements broadly fit into three focuses for development of FORCE: capability, accessibility, and reliability. Capability refers to the ability of FORCE to accurately model the technical and economic viability of various IES. Accessibility refers to ease-of-use for new and existing IES analysts to efficiently set up, analyze, and produce results using FORCE. Reliability refers to the consistency of the software, allowing consistency to analysis regardless of erstwhile changes to the software. In addition to many smaller changes, there are three major capability improvements in FORCE in FY23. In summary, FORCE developments in FY23 have moved us close to all the capability requirements for FORCE 1.0 to be delivered in FY25. Inclusion of Bayesian optimization, resilience metrics, and levelized cost analysis expand the capability, accessibility, and reliability of FORCE.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Generic Multi-Frequency Modelling of Converter-Connected Renewable Energy Generators Considering Frequency and Sequence Couplings
Frequency and sequence couplings can compromise the trustworthiness of multi-frequency models for converter-based systems. There have been effective attempts to address the couplings mainly by linearized averaged models. Only a few studies have been conducted on practical optimization of such models with enormous matrices and experimental results. This paper provides a generic theory for coupling patterns and proposes a multi-frequency modelling method to detect and address only the main couplings in the sequence domain for converter-connected renewable energy generators. The proposed generic model is based on empirical tests using small-signal perturbations and adopting Fourier transform on the switching converter response. The proposed theory and modelling methodology are verified using a 7MVA grid emulator for voltage perturbation tests on a 2MVA photo-voltaic converter. Accordingly, the couplings can exist in more generic forms, including multiples of perturbation and fundamental frequencies. To the best of our knowledge, the patterns with the multiples of the perturbation frequency have been overlooked in the literature. Furthermore, the mirror frequency concept is valid for all coupling patterns and is included in the proposed model. Besides, the proposed patterns and the environment noise levels have been practical criteria for selecting the main couplings.
frequency and sequence couplings↗
Research on an augmented Lagrangian penalty function algorithm for nonlinear programming
The augmented Lagrangian (ALAG) Penalty Function Algorithm for optimizing nonlinear mathematical models is discussed. The mathematical models of interest are deterministic in nature and finite dimensional optimization is assumed. A detailed review of penalty function techniques in general and the ALAG technique in particular is presented. Numerical experiments are conducted utilizing a number of nonlinear optimization problems to identify an efficient ALAG Penalty Function Technique for computer implementation.
Frair, L.↗
Noise Reduction Trajectory Analysis of a Supersonic Business Jet using Novel Optimization Tools
Proposals to reduce airport noise during takeoff and landing for supersonic aircraft using methods such as variable noise reduction systems add complexity to conceptual flight models. To better optimize these takeoff and landing profiles for noise certification, new modeling methods are explored in this paper with the end goal of more effectively determining the sensitivities of airframe, propulsion, and mission design variables on overall airport noise. Takeoff and landing trajectories are modeled for a notional supersonic business jet concept developed by NASA for use in environmental impact studies conducted by the International Civil Aviation Organization. Optimization tools capable of gradient-based optimal control and collocation solving methods are examined with the aim of achieving faster solutions in a more comprehensive design space. The benefits and limitations of these new methods are compared with existing methods used in previous studies of the airplane concept. It is found that the new modeling methods match closely when compared with existing tools for a standard takeoff and landing case, with a cumulative effective perceived noise difference of 0.1 EPNdB. Comparisons between takeoff trajectories with a variable noise reduction system match within 0.8 EPNdB and 1.3 EPNdB, due to highlighted differences in the modeling approaches.
supersonic↗
Optimal selection of Orbital Replacement Unit on-orbit spares - A Space Station system availability model
A mathematical programing model is presented to optimize the selection of Orbital Replacement Unit on-orbit spares for the Space Station. The model maximizes system availability under the constraints of logistics resupply-cargo weight and volume allocations.
Schwaab, Douglas G.↗
Real-Time Optimization Workflow Status Update
Economically optimal and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires optimization at many different time scales. A real-time optimization (RTO) workflow will attempt to maximize revenue and minimize operational costs on a time scale of minutes to hours. Such a workflow requires the use of a digital twin (DT), which is a virtual representation of a physical system. The DT is updated using real-time data from the physical system, and serves as a model in an optimization framework. The optimization results are then sent back to the physical system to complete the loop. This report details the progress made in developing building blocks for a DT/RTO framework. The Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) platform within the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite can perform many of the tasks required for building a DT and performing RTO. The first item of this report details RAVEN enhancements that enable RAVEN workflows to be run in various environments. Data communication between the physical system and its DT is essential for successful RTO. This includes preprocessing real-time data, loading data into a data warehouse, and querying the stored data. The second section of this report describes the progress made in implementing an adapter in Python in order for Deep Lynx to handle the data communication. Typical dispatch optimization frameworks are built on linear programming (LP). The prototype RTO workflow developed in this report uses an LP problem as a part of a receding-horizon- or economic model predictive control (EMPC) based optimization. The third section of this report details the framework of an RTO workflow in which the system consists of a simple electrical storage device. A DT can be built from a reduced-order model (ROM). Integrating a ROM into a typical LP optimization framework has been challenging because most optimization packages require the user to write algebraic expressions for the system model. The final section of this report shows how an externally built RAVEN ROM can be integrated in an RTO framework by using the Python package Pyomo. This demonstrates the RTO workflow capability from a software-only perspective and is an important step in demonstrating the capability to implement an RTO workflow for a physical system.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Quantum approximate optimization of the long-range Ising model with a trapped-ion quantum simulator
Quantum computers and simulators may offer significant advantages over their classical counterparts, providing insights into quantum many-body systems and possibly improving performance for solving exponentially hard problems, such as optimization and satisfiability. Here, we report the implementation of a low-depth Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) using an analog quantum simulator. We estimate the ground-state energy of the Transverse Field Ising Model with long-range interactions with tunable range, and we optimize the corresponding combinatorial classical problem by sampling the QAOA output with high-fidelity, single-shot, individual qubit measurements. We execute the algorithm with both an exhaustive search and closed-loop optimization of the variational parameters, approximating the ground-state energy with up to 40 trapped-ion qubits. We benchmark the experiment with bootstrapping heuristic methods scaling polynomially with the system size. We observe, in agreement with numerics, that the QAOA performance does not degrade significantly as we scale up the system size and that the runtime is approximately independent from the number of qubits. We finally give a comprehensive analysis of the errors occurring in our system, a crucial step in the path forward toward the application of the QAOA to more general problem instances.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Design and Optimization of Processes for Recovering Rare Earth Elements from End-of-Life Hard Disk Drives
In this poster, we first provide motivation for why rare earth elements as rare earth permanent magnets (REPM) are increasing in demand. We then highlight some of the recent work that has been done by several national labs (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Critical Minerals Institute (CMI)) on recycling rare earth elements from end-of-life hard disk drives (EOL). Then, we mention our long-term plan to design a feedstock agnostic process to recover rare earth elements as rare earth oxides from many different EOL products at once. Next, we discuss how we quantified the rare earth elements available for recycling from EOL hard disk drives from consumer desktops and laptops. We then discuss how we used superstructure optimization to design the optimal pathway. The proposed superstructure was modeled as a MILP optimization problem, selecting the net present value as the objective function. Costing data from the literature was used to inform this model whenever possible. However, due to the novelty of this research area, data were often unavailable, thus requiring the generation of flowsheets implemented in Aspen Plus.
Laliwala, Chris↗
Explicit solvent machine-learned coarse-grained model of sodium polystyrene sulfonate to capture polymer structure and dynamics
In this article, strongly charged polyelectrolytes (PEs) demonstrate complex solution behavior as a function of chain length, concentrations, and ionic strength. The viscosity behavior is important to understand and is a core quantity for many applications, but aspects remain a challenge. Molecular dynamics simulations using implicit solvent coarse-grained (CG) models successfully reproduce structure, but are often inappropriate for calculating viscosities. To address the need for CG models which reproduce viscoelastic properties of one of the most studied PEs, sodium polystyrene sulfonate (NaPSS), we report our recent efforts in using Bayesian optimization to develop CG models of NaPSS which capture both polymer structure and dynamics in aqueous solutions with explicit solvent. We demonstrate that our explicit solvent CG NaPSS model with the ML-BOP water model [Chan et al. Nat Commun 10, 379 (2019)] quantitatively reproduces NaPSS chain statistics and solution structure. The new explicit solvent CG model is benchmarked against diffusivities from atomistic simulations and experimental specific viscosities for short chains. We also show that our Bayesian-optimized CG model is transferable to larger chain lengths across a range of concentrations. Overall, this work provides a machine-learned model to probe the structural, dynamic, and rheological properties of polyelectrolytes such as NaPSS and aids in the design of novel, strongly charged polymers with tunable structural and viscoelastic properties
77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
Analytic Sensitivities for Shape Optimization in Equivalent Plate Structural Wing Models
Equivalent plate modeling techniques based on Ritz analysis with simple polynomials prove to be efficient tools for structural modeling of wings in the preliminary design stage. Accuracy problems are encountered, however, when these models are used to obtain finite difference behavior sensitivities with respect to planform shape. The accuracy problems are associated with the poor numerical conditioning of static and eigenvalue equations. As higher-order polynomials are being used to Improve the analysis itself, the more sensitive is the finite difference derivative to the step size used. This article describes a formulation of wing equivalent plate modeling in which it is simple to obtain analytic, explicit expressions for stiffness and mass matrix elements without the need to perform numerical integration. This formulation leads naturally to analytic expressions for the derivatives of displacements, stresses, and natural frequencies with respect to shape design variables. This article examines the accuracy of finite difference derivatives compared with the analytic derivatives, and shows that In some cases it is impossible to obtain any information of value by finite differences. Analytic sensitivities, in this case, are still sufficiently accurate for design optimization.
Livne, Eli↗
Optimization of a Secondary Air Injector for a Rich-Quench-Lean (RQL) Ammonia Combustor Using Computational Fluid Dynamics
Ammonia has emerged as a promising medium for moving hydrogen around the globe due to its energy density, existing infrastructure for production, transportation, and storage, and multiple applications from fertilizer to power generation. However, one of the most significant challenges with ammonia combustion for power generation is the formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) during combustion. Several combustion strategies have been developed to minimize the formation of NOx. One such strategy, known as rich-quench-lean (RQL), is a method that combusts NH3 in a fuel-rich environment, followed by a quick mix section and a lean burnout section. Rapid mixing of secondary air before lean burnout is thought to be important to minimize the formation of NOx. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to parametrically vary the secondary air injector design, including the diameter, count, and angles over a constrained design space. The designs are evaluated using a non-reacting OpenFOAM model, with the objective function being the uniformity index of the secondary air (modeled as a scalar). Optimization campaigns show that traditional correlation-based designs might not be adequate. After running 414 OpenFOAM models, the optimal design is 32, 1 mm diameter, angled air injectors, increasing the uniformity index at the outlet of the quick mix zone by 36.8%. The most promising designs will be manufactured and tested in a small RQL burner setup, which is expected to lead to validation and insight into the practical usage of NH3 combustion for power generation.
ammonia combustion↗