Climate Change Accuracy: Observing Requirements and Economic Value
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All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238 (Pu-238). The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research (CSNR) has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. Potentially, the front end capital costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. In the Phase I NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. Finally, as the study progressed, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.
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This presentation describes the need to calculate projections for the demands and benefits of operating commercial unmanned aircraft within the NAS.
Traditional approaches to design and optimization of a new system often use a system-centric objective and do not take into consideration how the operator will use this new system alongside other existing systems. When the new system design is incorporated into the broader group of systems, the performance of the operator-level objective can be sub-optimal due to the unmodeled interaction between the new system and the other systems. Among the few available references that describe attempts to address this disconnect, most follow an MDO (Multidisciplinary Design Optimization)-motivated sequential decomposition approach of first designing a very good system and then providing this system to the operator who, decides the best way to use this new system along with the existing systems. This paper addresses this issue by including aircraft design, airline operations, and revenue management "subspaces"; and presents an approach that could simultaneously solve these subspaces posed as a monolithic optimization problem rather than the traditional approach described above. The monolithic approach makes the problem an expensive Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming problem, which are extremely difficult to solve. To address the problem, we use a recently developed optimization framework that simultaneously solves the subspaces to capture the "synergy" in the problem that the previous decomposition approaches did not exploit, addresses mixed-integer/discrete type design variables in an efficient manner, and accounts for computationally expensive analysis tools. This approach solves an 11-route airline network problem consisting of 94 decision variables including 33 integer and 61 continuous type variables. Simultaneously solving the subspaces leads to significant improvement in the fleet-level objective of the airline when compared to the previously developed sequential subspace decomposition approach.
No abstract available
Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.
Modifications to an existing radiofrequency telescope are described which would enable it to operate as an R&D optical receiver terminal for deep-space communications. The low overall cost of the telescope is due to the unique process of fabricating the 10.4 meter primary mirror and its support structure, the lightweight of the primary (10-11 kg/m 2 ), and the requirement that the telescope act only as a photon bucket, which lowers the cost of optically figuring and polishing the mirror. The entrie optical ground terminal facility is estimated to cost approximately $10M to construct.
Data delivery in the Deep Space Network (DSN) involves transmission of a small amount of constant, high-priority traffic and a large amount of bursty, low-priority data. The bursty traffic may be initially buffered and then metered back slowly as bandwidth becomes available. Today both types of data are transmitted over dedicated leased circuits. The authors investigated the potential of saving money by designing a hybrid communucations architecture that uses leased circuits for high-priority network communications and dial-up circuits for low-priority traffic. The architecture presented here may also be applied to any ground station-to-customer network within the range of a common carrier. The authors compare estimated costs for various scenerios and suggest security safeguards that should be considered.
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Thermoelectric energy recovery systems require cost-optimized designs with high thermal and thermoelectric (TE) performance to surmount common commercialization barriers controlling the acceptance of thermoelectric generator (TEG) systems. Recent work has addressed this requirement with new analytic tools and paradigms that allow integrated TEG cost-performance analysis and optimization. New work herein has identified the existence of optimized TE element design (i.e., TE element length) for minimizing TEG cost and provides design guidelines associated with critical thermal and electrical contact resistance effects and TE manufacturing sensitivities. Once optimum hot-side heat flux criteria are satisfied, this work highlights the tradeoffs between interface resistance effects and manufacturing cost effects in determining optimum-cost TE element lengths, and then quantifies the increase in optimum-cost TE lengths as manufacturing costs become more sensitive to TE element lengths. Optimized TE element design criteria and key non-dimensional design parameters (i.e., [𝐶′′′LTE/𝐶′′], [TE/con], [con/(TE,aveLTE)]) driving the design are presented and explained showing the interdependencies between manufacturing cost parameters and thermal and electrical interface impacts on integrated TE cost-performance analysis and design. Comprehensive TEG system cost-performance relationships clearly demonstrate the two parameters that most greatly impact the TEG system cost are heat exchanger costs ($/(W/K)) and TE hot side heat flux. Reducing heat exhanger cost from $1/(W/K) to $0.5/(W/K) can decrease TEG system cost by $2/W to $4/W depending on TE hot side heat fluxes from 4-10 W/cm2. The impact of TE hot side heat flux on TEG system cost is larger; reducing TE system cost by factors of 2-4 as TE hot side heat flux increases from 4 W/cm2 to high levels around 18 W/cm2. The levels of thermal contact resistance and electrical contact resistance required to even approach the critical TEG system cost level of $1/W are characterized by con = 1.0 x 10-10 -m2 and r = 0.1, respectively. This not only lowers TEG costs, but it also makes the TEG system costs less sensitive to TE manufacturing dependences on TE element length. New design paradigms and relationships create holistic, integrated TE performance-cost models that enhance understanding of crucial interrelationships between component costs, TE design parameters and material properties, heat exchanger design parameters, interfacial heat flux, and now thermal and electrical interface effects in minimizing TEG system costs.