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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Phase 2 Study of Accelerated Hypofractionated Thoracic Radiation Therapy and Concurrent Chemotherapy in Patients With Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To prospectively investigate the efficacy and toxicity of accelerated hypofractionated thoracic radiation therapy (HypoTRT) combined with concurrent chemotherapy in the treatment of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC), with the hypothesis that both high radiation dose and short radiation time are important in this setting. Methods and Materials: Patients with previously untreated LS-SCLC, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 to 2, and adequate organ function were eligible. HypoTRT of 55 Gy at 2.5 Gy per fraction over 30 days was given on the first day of the second or third cycle of chemotherapy. An etoposide/cisplatin regimen was given to 4 to 6 cycles. Patients who had a good response to initial treatment were offered prophylactic cranial irradiation. The primary endpoint was the 2-year progression-free survival rate. Results: Fifty-nine patients were enrolled from July 2007 through February 2012 (median age, 58 years; 86% male). The 2-year progression-free survival rate was 49.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 35.3%-62.7%). Median survival time was 28.5 months (95% CI 9.0-48.0 months); the 2-year overall survival rate was 58.2% (95% CI 44.5%-71.9%). The 2-year local control rate was 76.4% (95% CI 63.7%-89.1%). The severe hematologic toxicities (grade 3 or 4) were leukopenia (32%), neutropenia (25%), and thrombocytopenia (15%). Acute esophagitis and pneumonitis of grade ≥3 occurred in 25% and 10% of the patients, respectively. Thirty-eight patients (64%) received prophylactic cranial irradiation. Conclusion: Our study showed that HypoTRT of 55 Gy at 2.5 Gy per fraction daily concurrently with etoposide/cisplatin chemotherapy has favorable survival and acceptable toxicity. This radiation schedule deserves further investigation in LS-SCLC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Safety and Palliative Efficacy of Single-Dose 8-Gy Reirradiation for Painful Local Failure in Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Treated With Radical Chemoradiation Therapy

Purpose: To investigate the safety and efficacy of single-dose 8-Gy palliative chest reirradiation (CRI) in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (M-NSCLC) patients with painful thoracic failures (TF) within the previous radiation portal. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 78 M-NSCLC patients who received single-dose 8-Gy CRI for painful TF after concurrent chemoradiation therapy to a total radiation dose of 52 to 66 Gy between 2007 and 2012. Primary endpoints included significant pain relief (SPR) defined as a ≥2 point decrement in the Visual Analogue Scale for Pain inventory (VAS-P), time to pain relief, and duration of pain control. Secondary objectives were survival and prognostic factors. Results: Treatment was well tolerated, with only 5.1% grade 3 pneumonitis and 1.3% grade 2 esophagitis. Pre-CRI median and post-CRI minimum VAS-P were 7 and 3 (P<.001), respectively. SPR was noted in 67 (85.9%) patients, and only 3 (3.9%) scored progressive pain. Median time to lowest VAS-P and duration of pain control were 27 days and 6.1 months, respectively. Median overall survival (OS) was 7.7 months, and the 1-year OS rate was 26.5%. On multivariate analyses, lower Eastern Cooperative Oncology group score (1-2; P<.001), absence of anemia (P=.001), and fewer metastatic sites (1-2; P<.001) were found to be associated with longer OS. Conclusions: Single-dose 8-Gy CRI provides safe, effective, and durable pain palliation for TF in radically irradiated M-NSCLC patients. Because of its convenience, lower cost, and higher comfort, the present protocol can be considered an appropriate option for patients with limited life spans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Precision Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy in Poor Performing Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Phase 1 Dose Escalation Trial

Purpose: Treatment regimens for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) give suboptimal clinical outcomes. Technological advancements such as radiation therapy, the backbone of most treatment regimens, may enable more potent and effective therapies. The objective of this study was to escalate radiation therapy to a tumoricidal hypofractionated dose without exceeding the maximally tolerated dose (MTD) in patients with locally advanced NSCLC. Methods and Materials: Patients with stage II to IV or recurrent NSCLC and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 2 or greater and not candidates for surgical resection, stereotactic radiation, or concurrent chemoradiation were eligible. Highly conformal radiation therapy was given to treat intrathoracic disease in 15 fractions to a total of 50, 55, or 60 Gy. Results: Fifty-five patients were enrolled: 15 at the 50-Gy, 21 at the 55-Gy, and 19 at the 60-Gy dose levels. A 90-day follow-up was completed in each group without exceeding the MTD. With a median follow-up of 12.5 months, there were 93 grade ≥3 adverse events (AEs), including 39 deaths, although most AEs were considered related to factors other than radiation therapy. One patient from the 55- and 60-Gy dose groups developed grade ≥3 esophagitis, and 5, 4, and 4 patients in the respective dose groups experienced grade ≥3 dyspnea, but only 2 of these AEs were considered likely related to therapy. There was no association between fraction size and toxicity (P=.24). The median overall survival was 6 months with no significant differences between dose levels (P=.59). Conclusions: Precision hypofractionated radiation therapy consisting of 60 Gy in 15 fractions for locally advanced NSCLC is generally well tolerated. This treatment regimen could provide patients with poor performance status a potent alternative to chemoradiation. This study has implications for the cost effectiveness of lung cancer therapy. Additional studies of long-term safety and efficacy of this therapy are warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Impact of Pretreatment Combined {sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography Staging on Radiation Therapy Treatment Decisions in Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

Purpose: To assess the diagnostic performance of pretreatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ({sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT) and its impact on radiation therapy treatment decisions in patients with locally advanced breast cancer (LABC). Methods and Materials: Patients with LABC with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status <2 and no contraindication to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant radiation therapy were enrolled on a prospective trial. All patients had pretreatment conventional imaging (CI) performed, including bilateral breast mammography and ultrasound, bone scan, and CT chest, abdomen, and pelvis scans performed. Informed consent was obtained before enrolment. Pretreatment whole-body {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed on all patients, and results were compared with CI findings. Results: A total of 154 patients with LABC with no clinical or radiologic evidence of distant metastases on CI were enrolled. Median age was 49 years (range, 26-70 years). Imaging with PET/CT detected distant metastatic disease and/or locoregional disease not visualized on CI in 32 patients (20.8%). Distant metastatic disease was detected in 17 patients (11.0%): 6 had bony metastases, 5 had intrathoracic metastases (pulmonary/mediastinal), 2 had distant nodal metastases, 2 had liver metastases, 1 had pulmonary and bony metastases, and 1 had mediastinal and distant nodal metastases. Of the remaining 139 patients, nodal disease outside conventional radiation therapy fields was detected on PET/CT in 15 patients (10.8%), with involvement of ipsilateral internal mammary nodes in 13 and ipsilateral level 5 cervical nodes in 2. Conclusions: Imaging with PET/CT provides superior diagnostic and staging information in patients with LABC compared with CI, which has significant therapeutic implications with respect to radiation therapy management. Imaging with PET/CT should be considered in all patients undergoing primary staging for LABC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Phase 1 Trial of Sorafenib and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose: To determine the maximally tolerated dose of sorafenib delivered before, during, and after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in hepatocellular carinoma (HCC). Methods and Materials: Eligible patients had locally advanced Child-Pugh class A HCC, showed Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1, and were ineligible for standard local-regional therapies. Sorafenib was dose escalated in 2 strata: (1) low effective irradiated liver volume (veff) < 30% and (2) high veff 30%to 60%. Sorafenib (400 mg daily = dose level 1) was administered for 12 weeks, with 6 fractions SBRT delivered weeks 2 and 3, and escalation to full dose (400 mg twice daily) after 12 weeks as tolerated. Standard 3 + 3 cohorts with dose escalation of sorafenib were planned. Results: Sixteen patients (4 low veff, median dose 51 Gy; 12 high veff, median dose 33 Gy) were treated at 2 sorafenib dose levels. Of those patients 75% were had Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C, and 63% had main branch portal vein invasion. In the low veff stratum, no dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) were observed in 4 patients treated with SBRT and sorafenib 400 mg. Inb the high veff stratum: 2 of 3 evaluable patients treated with sorafenib 400 mg experienced DLT (grade 3 large bowel bleed and grade 4 bowel obstruction 51 and 27 days, respectively, after SBRT). One of 6 evaluable patients at dose level −1 (200 mg once daily) experienced a grade 3 tumor rupture at week 5. Median overall survival and in-field local progression have not been reached. Worsening of Child-Pugh liver function class was seen in 6 of 12 patients in the high veff stratum. Conclusions: Significant toxicity was observed in the high veff stratum, and concurrent SBRT with sorafenib is not recommended outside a clinical trial.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The Effect of Biologically Effective Dose and Radiation Treatment Schedule on Overall Survival in Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To determine the effect of biologically effective dose (BED{sub 10}) and radiation treatment schedule on overall survival (OS) in patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) undergoing stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: Using data from 65 treatment centers in the United States, we retrospectively reviewed the records of T1-2 N0 NSCLC patients undergoing SBRT alone from 2006 to 2014. Biologically relevant covariates, including dose per fraction, number of fractions, and time between fractions, were used to quantify BED{sub 10} and radiation treatment schedule. The linear-quadratic equation was used to calculate BED{sub 10} and to generate a dichotomous dose variable of <105 Gy versus ≥105 Gy BED{sub 10}. The primary outcome was OS. We used the Kaplan-Meier method, the log–rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression with propensity score matching to determine whether prescription BED{sub 10} was associated with OS. Results: We identified 747 patients who met inclusion criteria. The median BED{sub 10} was 132 Gy, and 59 (7.7%) had consecutive-day fractions. Median follow-up was 41 months, and 452 patients (60.5%) had died by the conclusion of the study. The 581 patients receiving ≥105 Gy BED{sub 10} had a median survival of 28 months, whereas the 166 patients receiving <105 Gy BED{sub 10} had a median survival of 22 months (log–rank, P=.01). Radiation treatment schedule was not a significant predictor of OS on univariable analysis. After adjusting for T stage, sex, tumor histology, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, BED{sub 10} ≥105 Gy versus <105 Gy remained significantly associated with improved OS (hazard ratio 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.62-0.98, P=.03). Propensity score matching on imbalanced variables within high- and low-dose cohorts confirmed a survival benefit with higher prescription dose. Conclusions: We found that dose escalation to 105 Gy BED{sub 10} and beyond may improve survival in NSCLC patients treated with SBRT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Regional Representation of Wind Stakeholders' End-of-Life Behaviors and Their Impact on Wind Blade Circularity

Wind plant power has seen tremendous growth in the US and worldwide, representing the most significant renewable energy installed capacity besides hydropower. While wind power enables decarbonizing the electricity grid, the rising amount of end-of-life (EOL) wind blades - which are arduous to recycle - present a challenge for landfills if disposed of whole and a missed opportunity to recover valuable composite materials. The circular economy (CE) concept proposes strategies to rethink, reuse and recover products, components, and materials. However, transitioning to a CE implies changing how business models, supply chains, and behaviors deal with products and waste; changes arduously captured with traditional methods used to assess circularity such as life cycle assessment or material flow analysis (MFA). Here we present an agent-based model (ABM) that captures behavioral aspects impacting wind blade circularity in the US. The ABM also accounts for wind plant projects and landfills heterogeneity - a characteristic not easily included in top-down approaches such as MFA, input-output analysis, or system dynamics. Results show that recycling is divided as most recycling facilities are on the eastern side of the country, a challenge that could be alleviated by shredding blades before transportation. Recycling programs from the wind industry could also seed recycling behaviors within wind plant owners. Better yet, new blade designs could increase circularity if original equipment manufacturers accept the risks involved with the investments needed to adapt the production lines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Spectral analysis of amazon canopy phenology during the dry season using a tower hyperspectral camera and modis observations

The association between spectral reflectance and canopy processes remains challenging for quantifying large-scale canopy phenological cycles in tropical forests. In this paper, we used a tower-mounted hyperspectral camera in an eastern Amazon forest to assess how canopy spectral signals of three species are linked with phenological processes in the 2012 dry season. We explored different approaches to disentangle the spectral components of canopy phenology processes and analyze their variations over time using 17 images acquired by the camera. The methods included linear spectral mixture analysis (SMA); principal component analysis (PCA); continuum removal (CR); and first-order derivative analysis. In addition, three vegetation indices potentially sensitive to leaf flushing, leaf loss and leaf area index (LAI) were calculated: the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the entitled Green-Red Normalized Difference (GRND) index. We inspected also the consistency of the camera observations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and available phenological data on new leaf production and LAI of young, mature and old leaves simulated by a leaf demography-ontogeny model. The results showed a diversity of phenological responses during the 2012 dry season with related changes in canopy structure and greenness values. Because of the differences in timing and intensity of leaf flushing and leaf shedding, Erisma uncinatum, Manilkara huberi and Chamaecrista xinguensis presented different green vegetation (GV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) SMA fractions; distinct PCA scores; changes in depth, width and area of the 681-nm chlorophyll absorption band; and variations over time in the EVI, GRND and NDVI. At the end of dry season, GV increased for Erisma uncinatum, while NPV increased for Chamaecrista xinguensis. For Manilkara huberi, the NPV first increased in the beginning of August and then decreased toward September with new foliage. Variations in red-edge position were not statistically significant between the species and across dates at the 95% confidence level. The camera data were affected by view-illumination effects, which reduced the SMA shade fraction over time. When MODIS data were corrected for these effects using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction Algorithm (MAIAC), we observed an EVI increase toward September that closely tracked the modeled LAI of mature leaves (3–5 months). Compared to the EVI, the GRND was a better indicator of leaf flushing because the modeled production of new leaves peaked in August and then declined in September following the GRND closely. Finally, while the EVI was more related to changes in mature leaf area, the GRND was more associated with new leaf flushing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping threats to agriculture in East Africa: Performance of MODIS derived LST for frost identification in Kenya’s tea plantations

Frost is a major threat to crop productivity in the Kenyan highlands. With agriculture being central to the Kenyan economy, every effort needs to be taken to alleviate losses especially on high value crops like tea, the leading foreign exchange earner. Current frost mapping efforts by SERVIR, a joint initiative between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and its hub institution in Eastern and Southern Africa, the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), utilizes Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) to probabilistically map areas that have been affected by frost. In this paper, we assessed the accuracy of these frost maps by testing the performance of MYD11A1 MODIS product in indicating areas affected by frost. MODIS derived LST values corresponding to frost and no frost observation locations and dates were reclassified according to 6 predetermined categories representing frost severity levels. The overall accuracy of each threshold category as LST cutoff separating frost and no frost affected areas was determined. An overall performance measure was then estimated using a Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (ROC). Overall accuracies of 67.3%–71.9% among the thresholds were obtained. An area under the ROC curve of 0.69 was obtained, indicating a poor performance of MODIS LST to distinguish frost from no frost areas. This shows that although MODIS derived LST can be used to identify frost-affected areas, it is not on its own sufficient in discriminating these areas with high levels of accuracy. Revision of temperature thresholds is recommended, in addition to improved characterization of frost occurrence in the region to include other factors that may be affecting frost occurrence. These results stand to better prepare the agricultural sector for damaging weather-related events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ecological connectivity and in-kind mitigation in a regulatory decision framework: A case study with an amphibian habitat specialist

Ecological connectivity is critical to the survival and long-term viability of populations but is often overlooked in regulatory frameworks. We integrated landscape-level processes into a mitigation strategy for impacts to aquatic resources on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Wetlands on the ORR, which contain significant breeding populations of the imperiled four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) and tubercled rein orchid (Platanthera flava var. herbiola), will be impacted by construction of an environmental waste disposal facility under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Here, we used a modified Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis to select general mitigation options that balanced regulatory requirements and interest group perspectives. We emphasized habitat connectivity through models that prioritized an area's importance to natural area connectivity (centrality) and maintenance of population structure for an affected habitat specialist (four-toed salamanders). We also emphasized in-kind mitigation through the preservation and enhancement of ecologically similar resources and the translocation and establishment of a new subpopulation of four-toed salamanders elsewhere on the ORR. We ultimately released over 500 juvenile salamanders that originated from the impacted site into the chosen mitigation wetlands. By doing so under the constraints of a time-sensitive CERCLA remediation effort and exceeding its substantive requirements, this work underscores feasibility. Ecological connectivity and the conservation of species that are not afforded explicit regulatory processes can be effectively and efficiently integrated into environmental decision-making and land use planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uptake and elimination of 137Cs in aquatic biota inhabiting a contaminated effluent canal

Radiocesium (137Cs) is among the most prevalent and concerning radionuclide released from anthropogenic activities due to its relatively slow decay time and high bioavailability. Numerous studies have reported activity concentrations of 137Cs in exposed biota, but few have assessed detailed toxicokinetics. The objective of our study was to quantify and compare the uptake and elimination of 137Cs in aquatic taxa from multiple classes with different ecological roles inhabiting a canal contaminated from nuclear production activities on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA. We tracked accumulation and elimination of 137Cs in four understudied aquatic species: one aquatic macrophyte [American white water lily (Nymphae odorata), two benthic associated omnivorous species (American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) and red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), and one pelagic carnivorous fish (Eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki)]. We monitored accumulation of 137Cs from initial exposure until equilibrium for biota restricted within the canal and subsequently tracked elimination of 137Cs over time by moving organisms from the canal to a nearby reference pond. Results indicated bullfrog tadpoles reached 95 % equilibrium in approximately 9 days, the fastest among the species evaluated. After bullfrog tadpoles, the next fastest time to equilibrium was achieved by red swamp crayfish (51 days) followed by mosquitofish (86 days). At equilibrium, bullfrog tadpoles were found to have similar 137Cs activity concentrations to mosquitofish (3.16 and 3.57 Bq/g, respectively), and both were significantly higher than red swamp crayfish (1.77 Bq/g). For elimination, we found biological half-lives to range between 8 and 43 days with bullfrog tadpoles eliminating 137Cs the fastest followed by water lilies, mosquitofish, and red swamp crayfish. Overall, we found the uptake and elimination of 137Cs to vary widely among our studied species, but benthic organisms are not at an increased risk to accumulate 137Cs compared to organisms in less frequent contact with the sediment.

Benthic organism Bioaccumulation Bioindicator Elim↗

Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin – Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 – reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 – and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 – reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 – trends were similar to historical measurements. Here, results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of age, origin, and sustainability of fossil aquifers: A geochemical and remote sensing-based approach

An integrated approach was developed to assess the sustainability, origin, age, evolution, and groundwater potential of large fossil aquifers using the Mega Aquifer System (MAS) (area: 2 x 10(6) km(2)) in the Arabian Peninsula as a test site. A two-step exercise was adopted, the sustainability of the MAS was first investigated through the analysis of GRACE data and land surface model (LSM) outputs. Then, integrated geochemical, remote sensing, and field studies were conducted to address the age, origin, hydrogeological setting, and evolution of the southern sections of the MAS (Rub Al Khali Aquifer System (RAKAS)), the area identified from the analysis of GRACE and ISMs as being the most suited for sustainable development. Analysis of GRACE and ISMs revealed: (1) the MAS central and northern sections are experiencing high groundwater extraction (6.6 km(3)/yr) and depletion rates (-2.8 +/- 0.8 km(3)/yr) with minimum balancing potential through aquifer capture processes, yet sustainability could be achieved by reducing annual extraction by 2.8 km(3), and (2) the MAS southern sections (Rub Al Khali Aquifer System (RAKAS)) are experiencing low groundwater depletion rates (eastern RAKAS: -1.8 +/- 1.4 mm/yr) to steady-state conditions (western RAKAS: -0.73 +/- 1.4 mm/yr). Geochemical, remote sensing, and field investigations over the RAKAS revealed: (1) the presence of west to east trending drainage networks and large-scale groundwater flow systems consistent with a meteoric source (precipitation over Red Sea Hills); (2) increasing Cl-36 model ages along groundwater flow directions (up to 970,000 years), indicating aquifer recharge in wet Pleistocene periods; (3) progressive depletion in the O and H stable isotopic compositions of aquifers with increasing distance from the Red Sea Hills basement outcrops, indicating modest recharge during prevailing dry conditions; and (4) the presence of relatively fresh (TDS: 800-2800 mg/L) and nonradioactive (Ra-226 + Ra-228 < 0.185 Bq/kg) water in western RAKAS. Findings suggest that sustainable agricultural development is achievable at current extraction rates in western RAKAS and provide a replicable and cost-effective model.

Fossil aquifers↗

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗