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Understanding Fission Gas Bubble Distribution and Zirconium Redistribution in Neutron-irradiated U-Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning

U-10wt.% Zr (U-10Zr) based metallic fuel is the leading candidate for next-generation sodium cooled fast reactor in United States. Currently, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been the leading national laboratory for research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) on metallic fuel. Advanced post-irradiation characterization will help to understand fuel microstructure and property change during irradiation, benefiting fuel qualification for commercial application. Characterization capabilities ranging from sub-nanometer to micrometer, such as scanning electron microscopy (SEM), focused ion beam (FIB) sampling, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization, and local thermal conductivity microscopy (TCM), have been utilized recently on irradiated U-10Zr fuel samples to gain a better understanding of nuclear fuel microstructure and property evolution inside a reactor. The FIB/SEM coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) can capture the essential information to achieve better understanding of fuel behaviors. Inside a nuclear reactor, the phase and microstructure of U-10Zr is constantly changing under neutron bombardment. For example, the gaseous fission product atoms have a limited solubility inside fuel matrix and tend to precipitate out in bubble form, which not only contribute to fuel thermal conductivity degradation but also provide a shortcut for movement of fission products, i.e. lanthanides. The resultant deposition of lanthanides at the cladding inner surface will potentially trigger a chemical reaction/interaction between nuclear fuel and cladding at reactor operational conditions, threatening fuel integrity and safety. FIB/SEM coupled with EDS can provide the fission bubble information as well as probe into phase separation or Zr redistribution, which is fundamental to predict the fuel performance. With high velocity image data generating method, such as FIB/SEM, an automatic way to extract the microstructural information quantitively can better serve the needs from post irradiation characterization. A trained machine learning model, named Decision Tree, is employed to generate a bubble classifier and to categorize bubbles into three categories: isolated bubble, connected without lanthanides, and connected with lanthanides bubbles[3]. This work presents a showcase of this approach on six regions of a fuel cross-section along the radial temperature gradient. We obtained distributions of bubble categories and porosity rates along the six regions. Moreover, a secondary phase U-Zr2 was determined and found on regions 5 and 6. The secondary phase fraction was increasing from 15.61% in region 5 to 34.79% in region 6 based on this approach . This quantitative data offers insights into the lanthanide migration and potentially thermal conductivity degradation. This information from machine learning will be fed into fuel design code for better prediction of fuel performance.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Black Swift Technologies S0 Uncrewed Aircraft System Data

This dataset includes atmospheric measurements obtained with the Black Swift Technologies S0 uncrewed aircraft system at the ARM SGP facility and a nearby mesonet site (Marshall). Flights were conducted over a one-week period, alongside platforms deployed by the University of Nebraska - Lincoln.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genetic co-structuring in host-parasite systems: Empirical data from raccoons and raccoon ticks

Many aspects of parasite biology critically depend on their hosts, and understanding how host-parasite populations are co-structured can help improve our understanding of the ecology of parasites, their hosts, and host-parasite interactions. Here, this study utilized genetic data collected from raccoons (Procyon lotor), and a specialist parasite, the raccoon tick (Ixodes texanus), to test for genetic co-structuring of host-parasite populations at both landscape and host scales. At the landscape scale, our analyses revealed a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance matrices (i.e., isolation by distance) in ticks, but not their hosts. While there are several mechanisms that could lead to a stronger pattern of isolation by distance in tick vs. raccoon datasets, our analyses suggest that at least one reason for the above pattern is the substantial increase in statistical power (due to the ≈8-fold increase in sample size) afforded by sampling parasites. Host-scale analyses indicated higher relatedness between ticks sampled from related vs. unrelated raccoons trapped within the same habitat patch, a pattern likely driven by increased contact rates between related hosts. Lastly, by utilizing fine-scale genetic data from both parasites and hosts, our analyses help improve our understanding of epidemiology and host ecology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tonopah Test Range Air Monitoring: CY2018 Meteorological, Radiological, and Wind Transported Particulate Observations

In 1963, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission [AEC]), implemented Operation Roller Coaster on the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) and an adjacent area of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) (formerly the Nellis Air Force Range). This operation resulted in radionuclide-contaminated soils at the Double Tracks site and Clean Slate I, II, and III sites. This report documents observations made during ongoing monitoring of radiological, meteorological, and dust conditions at stations installed adjacent to the Clean Slate sites and at the TTR Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Range Operations Center (ROC). The primary objective of the monitoring effort is to support the DOE Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) in the safe remediation of the environmental legacy of nuclear device development and testing by determining if wind blowing across the Clean Slate sites is transporting particles of radionuclide-contaminated soil beyond the physical and administrative boundaries of the sites, and to provide information for designing long-term monitoring of the sites. The monitoring program in 2018 included five stations. Station 400, located within TTR Area 3 and near the ROC, monitors conditions near the local workforce center. Stations 401 and 403 are located on the northern and southeastern perimeter fence lines, respectively, of the Clean Slate III site. Stations 404 and 405 are along the northern and eastern boundary fence, respectively, at Clean Slate II. The stations are generally downwind of the contaminated areas during either northwesterly or southerly winds, which are the predominant wind directions. The stations—which are similar in design to the Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) stations operating at locations surrounding the Nevada National Security Site and TTR—include meteorological instruments and continuous-flow, low-volume air samplers. Three pressurized ionization chambers for measuring gamma energy are in use at Stations 400, 401, and 403. Saltation sensors and saltation traps are deployed at the stations adjacent to the Clean Slate sites. Detailed meteorological data are recorded on data loggers, with periodic uploads via a satellite system to the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) at Desert Research Institute (DRI), to monitor instrument and site conditions. Air filter samples are collected every two weeks and the deposits in the saltation traps are collected when a sufficient sample mass for analysis has accumulated (generally a six- to eight-month interval). Monitoring at TTR in calendar year (CY) 2018 provided surveillance of both ambient conditions, and ground disturbance associated with remediation activities at Clean Slate II and III. The first half of CY2018 data from Stations 404 and 405 at Clean Slate II were collected during remediation activities at that site, and data collected during the final third of the year at Stations 401 and 403 at Clean Slate III coincided with remediation work at the site. Ambient conditions prevailed at Station 400 throughout the year. Dust transport by suspension and saltation is strongly dependent on wind speed. Concentrations of PM 10 (particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter ≤10 micrometers [μm], a size fraction of small particles that are suspended in the air and can be easily inhaled) remain low until winds exceed approximately 32 kilometers per hour (km/hr) (20 miles per hour [mph]). Saltation particle counts also increase above the same general threshold wind speed. Wind speeds in excess of 32 km/hr (20 mph) occur less than three percent of the time at the sites. Ground disturbing remediation activities were carried out at Clean Slate II from October 31, 2017, until July 26, 2018. Station 404 is located closest to the remediation area and is downwind of the area when winds are from the south. By late November, analysis of dust from the air sampler at Station 404 registered increases in plutonium-239+240 ( 239+240 Pu) concentrations. Peak plutonium concentrations, accompanied by elevated gross alpha concentrations and the detection of americium-241 ( 241 Am) by gamma spectroscopy, occurred between March and May 2018. During spring and early summer of 2018, elevated radionuclide concentrations were also measured in dust collected from the air sampler at Station 405, which is more than twice the distance from the remediation activity as Station 404. A minor but sustained increase in gross alpha concentration of suspended dust collected at Stations 400, 401, and 403 was also observed starting in May 2018 and continuing into August. Stations 401 and 403 are approximately 4.8 to 6.4 km (three to four miles) from Clean Slate II and Station 400 is approximately 13 km (eight miles) from that site. The radionuclide content of material that saltated into the passive Big Spring Number Eight (BSNE) traps during the Clean Slate II remediation period increased in both the traps facing toward and away from the fenced contamination area at Station 404, with the largest increases in concentration (almost five times the previous 239+240 Pu concentration) observed in the traps facing the fenced area. The radionuclide concentration in material in the trap facing away from the fence more than doubled from that measured in 2017. A similar increase was observed for the saltation trap facing away from the fenced area at Station 405, although no increase was observed for material captured in the trap facing the fenced area. Particles ranging in size from 50 to 500 µm generally move by saltation processes and are not expected to significantly contribute to dose for someone breathing in the standard respiratory zone for adult humans (1.5 to 1.7 m [4.9 to 5.6 ft] above ground level) because they are too large to be entrained in the air as suspended dust. Remediation activities at Clean Slate III began on September 5, 2018, and continued until a brief hiatus started on December 20, 2018. Although Station 401 is much closer to the remediation area than Station 403, the first increase in gross alpha and 239+240 Pu concentrations was noted in dust from filters collected at Station 403 in early November 2018. The highest radionuclide concentrations of 2018 at the Clean Slate III stations were recorded in air samples taken from Stations 401 and 403 in late December 2018 and these concentrations were comparable between the two station locations. Gamma rate data measured by the PICs was slightly higher than the annual average at Stations 401 and 403 after remediation activities began, but no single measurement was outside of the range observed in 2018 prior to remediation activities. No increase in radionuclide concentration was observed for the Clean Slate III remediation time period on air filters collected from the other stations. Radiological monitoring at Station 400—which is located at the ROC, and therefore the closest regularly staffed work location to the Clean Slate sites—recorded a higher mean gross alpha activity from dust collected on air sampler filters than in previous years. The individual biweekly air filters yielded measurements of gross alpha that were at or below the mean plus one standard deviation measured in CY2017, except for the period from April 25, 2018, through September 12, 2018. Nonetheless, gamma spectroscopy of all air filters from Station 400 identified only naturally occurring radionuclides, with no detection of americium-241 ( 241 Am) (which is used as an indicator of plutonium-241[ 241 Pu]). Alpha spectroscopy of selected air filters collected at Station 400 did not detect plutonium-238 ( 238 Pu) or 239+240 Pu above the analytical detection limit. Gross beta and gamma exposure rate data were comparable to data from regional CEMP stations. No saltation traps are deployed at Station 400. Considering the ambient monitoring periods during CY2018, the monitoring stations adjacent to the Clean Slate sites recorded above-background 238 Pu and 239+240 Pu concentrations (SNL, 1998; Turner et al., 2003) in samples collected by passive saltation traps and on selected air filters. These observations were consistent with previous years and indicated that radionuclide movement occurred under ambient conditions by processes of both saltation and suspension. The presence of radionuclides in all saltation traps, both upwind and downwind of the fenced contamination areas, was consistent with previous radiological survey results (EG&G, 1979) that show lower concentration radiologically contaminated material dispersed outside the fenced area. Although 239+240 Pu concentrations in the air filter samples were sometimes orders of magnitude higher than background, the concentrations were below risk-based action levels defined for an industrial area worker scenario (U.S. DOE, 2014). The interception of airborne dust with above-background radionuclide concentrations demonstrates that dispersal processes are continuing. Strong winds are the driver for both suspension and saltation of dust and soil. The recorded wind speed and PM10 during remediation activities at Clean Slate II and III identified discrete wind events lasting approximately five to eight hours each, which accounted for the greatest PM 10 concentrations at the monitoring stations. These events captured the effect of winds from the northwest and from the south. The observed differences in dust loading and radionuclide concentrations for the monitoring stations when they were either upwind or downwind of the contamination area identify the remediation area as a source of plutonium contaminated dust. The increase in concentration of radionuclides in airborne dust during the remediation activities, compared with measurements under previous ambient conditions (mean 239+240 Pu concentrations during remediation activities are approximately nine to 40 times higher compared to pre-remediation concentrations, depending on monitoring station), highlights the impact of land disturbance on wind-borne contaminant transport from the Clean Slate test areas. The meteorological and particulate matter monitoring indicated that conditions for wind-borne contaminant movement exist at the Clean Slate sites, and that transport of radionuclide-contaminated soil by both suspension and saltation occurred under ambient conditions and accelerated when the sites were disturbed. The 239+240 Pu alpha spectroscopy results indicated that airborne concentrations during remediation activities ranged from 2 × 10-16 to 380 × 10-16 µCi/ml. These results can be compared to the derived air concentration limit for 239 Pu of 6 × 10-11 µCi/ml for occupational workers contained in Code of Federal Regulations 10 CFR 835, Occupational Radiation Protection. Even though the air sampling results document an increase in concentration during remediation activities, the observed concentrations are less than 0.06 percent of the occupational limit. The Corrective Action Unit (CAU) closure strategy uses a risk-based approach, whereby acceptable contaminant concentrations are determined as a function of anticipated human exposure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effluent sampling of Titan 3 C vehicle exhaust

Downwind in situ ground-level measurements of the exhaust from a Titan 3 C launch vehicle were made during a normal launch. The measurement activity was conducted as part of an overall program to obtain field data for comparison with the multilayer dispersion model currently being used to predict the behavior of rocket vehicle exhaust clouds. All measurements were confined to land, ranging from the launch pad to approximately 2 kilometers downwind from the pad. Measurement systems included detectors for hydrogen chloride (HCl), carbon dioxide (CO2), and particulates (Al2O3). Airborne and ground-based optical systems were employed to monitor exhaust cloud rise, growth, and movement. These measurement systems, located along the ground track (45 deg azimuth from the launch pad) of the exhaust cloud, showed no effluents attributable to the launch. Some hydrogen chloride and aluminum oxide were detected in the surface wind direction (15 deg azimuth) from the pad. Comparisons with the model were made in three areas: (1) assumption of cloud geometry at stabilization; (2) prediction of cloud stabilization altitude; and (3) prediction of the path of cloud travel. In addition, the importance of elemental analyses of the particulate samples is illustrated.

Gregory, G. L.↗

Mars - A planet with a complex surface evolution

The surface of Mars has evolved to its present form through a complex sequence of tectonism and associated volcanism, impact processes, water erosion, mass movements, and wind action. The diversity of geological processes active in past Martian history far exceeded most predictions. By the same token, predictions of processes modifying the satellites of the outer planets may fall far short of the true range of phenomena. A summary of present though with regard to Martian surface evolution is presented to serve as a case in point of the value of imagery and topography data in making interpretations of geological histories.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

Potential applications of advanced aircraft in developing countries

Air transportation concepts for movement of cargo in developing countries are reviewed using aicraft which may appear in the future. For certain industrial applications, including mining and forestry, the relative costs of doing the job using different types of aircraft are compared with surface transportation systems. Two developing countries, Brazil and Indonesia, were taken as examples to determine what impact they might have on the aircraft markets of the future. Economic and demographic data on developing countries in general, and Brazil and Indonesia in particular, are reviewed. The concept of an industrial city in a remote area developed around an airport is discussed. It is noted that developing areas generally lack extensive surface transportation systems and that an air transportation system can be implemented in a relatively short time. A developing nation interested in rapid expansion may thus find the role of air cargo far more important than has been true in developed nations. Technological developments which may dramatically increase the performance of agricultural aircraft are also reviewed.

Maddalon, D. V.↗

Age constraints for the present fault configuration in the Imperial Valley, California: Evidence for northwestward propagation of the Gulf of California rift system

Releveling and other geophysical data for the Imperial Valley of southern California suggest the northern section of the Imperial-Brawley fault system, which includes the Mesquite Basin and Brawley Seismic Zone, is much younger than the 4 to 5 million year age of the valley itself. A minimum age of 3000 years is calculated for the northern segment of the Imperial fault from correlations between surface topography and geodetically observed seismic/interseismic vertical movements. Calculations of a maximum age of 80,000 years is based upon displacements in the crystalline basement along the Imperial fault, inferred from seismic refraction surveys. This young age supports recent interpretations of heat flow measurements, which also suggest that the current patterns of seismicity and faults in the Imperial Valley are not long lived. The current fault geometry and basement morphology suggest northwestward growth of the Imperial fault and migration of the Brawley Seismic Zone. It is suggested that this migration is a manifestation of the propagation of the Gulf of California rift system into the North American continent.

Larsen, Shawn↗

Age constraints for the present fault configuration in the Imperial Valley, California - Evidence for northwestward propagation of the Gulf of California rift system

Releveling and other geophysical data for the Imperial Valley of southern California suggest the northern section of the Imperial-Brawley fault system, which includes the Mesquite Basin and Brawley Seismic Zone, is much younger than the 4 to 5 million year age of the valley itself. A minimum age of 3000 years is calculated for the northern segment of the Imperial fault from correlations between surface topography and geodetically observed seismic/interseismic vertical movements. Calculations of a maximum age of 80,000 years is based upon displacements in the crystalline basement along the Imperial fault, inferred from seismic refraction surveys. This young age supports recent interpretations of heat flow measurements, which also suggest that the current patterns of seismicity and faults in the Imperial Valley are not long lived. The current fault geometry and basement morphology suggest northwestward growth of the Imperial fault and migration of the Brawley Seismic Zone. It is suggested that this migration is a manifestation of the propagation of the Gulf of California rift system into the North American continent.

Larsen, Shawn↗

External and Internal Reconnection in Two Filament-Carrying Magnetic Cavity Solar Eruptions

We observe two near-limb solar filament eruptions. one of 2000 February 26 and the other of 2002 January 4. For both we use 195 A Fe XII images from the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI). both of which are on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. (SOHO). For the earlier event we also use soft X-ray telescope (SXT). hard X-ray telescope (HXT). and Bragg Crystal Spectrometer (BCS) data from the Yohkoh satellite. and hard X-ray data from the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. (CGRO). Both events occur in quadrupolar magnetic regions. and both have coronal features that we infer belong to the same magnetic cavity structures as the filaments. In both cases. the cavity and filament first rise slowly at approx. 10 km/s prior to eruption and then accelerate to approx. 100 km/s during the eruption. although the slow-rise movement for the higher altitude cavity elements is clearer in the later event. We estimate that both filaments and both cavities contain masses of approx. 10(exp14) - 1 0(exp 15) and approx. l0(exp 15) - l0(exp 16) g. respectively. We consider whether two specific magnetic reconnection-based models for eruption onset. the "tether cutting" and the "breakout" models. are consistent with our observations. In the earlier event, soft X-rays from SXT show an intensity increase during the 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins. which is consistent with tether- cutting-model predictions. Substantial hard X-ray. however. do not occur until after fast eruption is underway. and so this is a constraint the tether-cutting model must satisfy. During the same 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins, there are brightenings and topological changes in the corona indicative of high-altitude reconnection early in the eruption. and this is consistent with breakout predictions. In both eruptions. the state of the overlying loops at the time of onset of the fast-rise phase of the corresponding filament can be compared with expectations from the breakout model. thereby setting constraints that the breakout model must meet. Our findings are consistent with both runaway tether-cutting-type reconnection and fast breakout-type reconnection. occurring early in the fast phase of the February eruption and with both types of reconnection being important in unleashing the explosion, but we are not able to say which. if either, type of reconnection actually triggered the fast phase. In any case. we have found specific constraints that either model. or any other model. must satisfy if correct.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Predictive Modeling and Operational Monitoring of Starlink Leo Satellite Network Performance in Maritime Environments

This thesis investigates short-term performance prediction for maritime LEO operational planning and application performance cannot anticipate available bandwidth or communication delay, which complicates variation alter signal conditions over short time scales. As a result, maritime users often fluctuations in link quality. In addition, Frequent satellite handoffs and Doppler-induced rapid satellite movement and changing atmospheric conditions cause substantial unavailable. Despite their availability, reliable operation at sea remains difficult because broadband connectivity in maritime regions where terrestrial infrastructure in

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Expansion of direction space around the cardinal axes revealed by smooth pursuit eye movements

It is well established that perceptual direction discrimination shows an oblique effect; thresholds are higher for motion along diagonal directions than for motion along cardinal directions. Here, we compare simultaneous direction judgments and pursuit responses for the same motion stimuli and find that both pursuit and perceptual thresholds show similar anisotropies. The pursuit oblique effect is robust under a wide range of experimental manipulations, being largely resistant to changes in trajectory (radial versus tangential motion), speed (10 versus 25 deg/s), directional uncertainty (blocked versus randomly interleaved), and cognitive state (tracking alone versus concurrent tracking and perceptual tasks). Our data show that the pursuit oblique effect is caused by an effective expansion of direction space surrounding the cardinal directions and the requisite compression of space for other directions. This expansion suggests that the directions around the cardinal directions are in some way overrepresented in the visual cortical pathways that drive both smooth pursuit and perception.

Visual Pathways/physiology↗

Parameter estimation from spontaneous imbibition into volcanic tuff

Two-phase fluid flow properties underlie quantitative prediction of water and gas movement, but constraining these properties typically requires multiple time-consuming laboratory methods. The estimation of two-phase flow properties (van Genuchten parameters, porosity, and intrinsic permeability) is illustrated in cores of vitric nonwelded volcanic tuff using Bayesian parameter estimation that fits numerical models to observations from spontaneous imbibition experiments. The uniqueness and correlation of the estimated parameters is explored using different modeling assumptions and subsets of the observed data. The resulting estimation process is sensitive to both moisture retention and relative permeability functions, thereby offering a comprehensive method for constraining both functions. The data collected during this relatively simple laboratory experiment, used in conjunction with a numerical model and a global optimizer, result in a viable approach for augmenting more traditional capillary pressure data obtained from hanging water column, membrane plate extractor, or mercury intrusion methods. This method may be useful when imbibition rather than drainage parameters are sought, when larger samples (e.g., including heterogeneity or fractures) need to be tested that cannot be accommodated in more traditional methods, or when in educational laboratory settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Arctic Sea Ice Classification Using Microwave Scatterometer and Radiometer Data During 2002-2017

Temporal and spatial variation of sea ice type in the Arctic is an indicator of regional and global change. Arctic sea ice can be classified into two major categories: multiyear ice (MYI) and first-year ice. In this paper, classification method based on machine learning is established and applied to produce daily sea ice classification data set during the winter (November–April) from 2002 to 2017 using active microwave data from QuikSCAT and Advanced Scatterometer as well as passive microwave data from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS, Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder, and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 radiometer. First, the open water area is flagged out using brightness temperature (Tb) from the passive microwave sensor. Then, K-means algorithm is applied to identify the clusters of the two ice types in the Tb/backscatter parameter space and finally assign pixels to each class. Two optimization methods based on the movement of MYI and marginal ice zone are used to correct the misclassification of MYI. The results have shown a decrease of MYI in winter from 2002 to 2017, especially in 2008 and 2013 with a remarkable recovery in 2014. The classifications are consistent with results by visual interpretation from synthetic aperture radar images in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago with overall classification accuracy over 93%. Comparison with classifications from previous studies and products shows that our method could reflect more differences in MYI declining trend interannually and less anomalous fluctuations in certain years.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-ADR Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ADR Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ADR Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This tower is located at the Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began studies of unsaturated zone hydrology at ADRS in 1976. Over the years, USGS investigations at ADRS have provided long-term "benchmark" information about the hydraulic characteristics and soil-water movement for both natural-site conditions and simulated waste-site conditions in an arid environment. The ADRS is located in a creosote-bush community adjacent to disposal trenches for low-level radioactive waste.

Moreo, Michael [U.S. Geological Survey]↗

Predicting Air Traffic Management Initiatives Using Supervised Learning

Terminal Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Stops (GS) and Ground Delay Programs (GDP) are implemented to manage excess demand or lowered capacity at an airport. Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM) specialists identify situations such as aviation constraints, current and forecasted weather conditions, airport demand and capacity, and initiate TMIs for safe and orderly movement of air traffic. In this paper, we outline supervised learning techniques that can be used to predict and recommend TMIs at an airport based on current weather and airport conditions. Our research involves building classic Machine Learning (ML) models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest and XGBoost, as well as Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We trained the models on 3-year historical data (weather, airport demand, capacity and TMIs) from Newark (EWR) airport which was selected based on its higher TMI implementation rates and varied weather conditions. Although Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms are able to predict if a TMI is needed or not, they have difficulty in predicting specific program type. For this purpose, we found that LSTM time-series forecasting models performed better as they also learn from past TMI program type sequences. This study also lays down the foundation for advanced modeling techniques and architectures to predict TMIs in advance for future periods. The ability to predict TMIs in advance will be highly beneficial to the traffic controllers and managers as this will help them to prepare for and manage TMIs more efficiently.

Manoj Agrawal↗

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Satellite Altimetry, Ocean Circulation, and Data Assimilation

Ocean circulation is a critical factor in determining the Earth's climate. Satellite altimetry has been proven a powerful technique for measuring the height of the sea surface for the study of global ocean circulation dynamics. A major objective of my research is to investigate the utility of altimeter data for ocean circulation studies. The 6 years' data record of TOPEX/POSEIDON have been analyzed to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale ocean variability. A major result obtained in 1998 is the discovery of large-scale oscillations in sea level with a period of 25 days in the Argentine Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean (see diagram). They exhibit a dipole pattern with counterclockwise rotational propagation around the Zapiola Rise (centered at 45S and 317E), a small seamount in the abyssal plain of the basin. The peak-to-trough amplitude is about 10 cm over a distance of 500-1000 km. The amplitude of these oscillations has large seasonal-to-interannual variations. The period and rotational characteristics of these oscillations are remarkably similar to the observations made by two current meters deployed near the ocean bottom in the region. What TOPEX/POSEIDON has detected apparently are manifestations of the movement of the entire water column (barotropic motion). The resultant transport variation is estimated to be about 50 x 10(exp 6) cubic M/S, which is about 50% of the total water transport in the region. Preliminary calculations suggest that these oscillations are topographically trapped waves. A numerical model of the South Atlantic is used to investigate the nature of and causes for these waves. A very important property of sea surface height is that it is directly related to the surface geostrophic velocity, which is related to deep ocean circulation through the density field. Therefore altimetry observations are not only useful for determining the surface circulation but also for revealing information about the deep ocean. Another objective of my research is to investigate the extent of information one can infer about the deep ocean from altimetric observations. The approach is data assimilation by ocean models. The objective is to develop a modeling/data assimilation system that will produce estimates of the 3-dimensional state of the ocean for the entire duration of the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗