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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Analytical simulation of nonlinear satellite links

It is noted that performance predictions for nonlinear digital satellite channels are usually obtained by either purely analytical methods or Monte Carlo simulations. When used with other than very simple channel models, however, they become extremely costly. It is shown that, through analytical modeling of the effect of the nonlinearity on the uplink waveform, it is possible to obtain approximate performance predictions with a minimum of computer time. It is also demonstrated that the results agree quite well with Monte Carlo simulations and that significant trade-offs can be performed with this tool. An analytical simulation based on Blachman's (1968) definition of signal x signal, signal x noise, and noise x noise terms is shown to provide the required flexibility for modeling the effect of signal distortions on the link performance and to produce good results over a wide range of nonlinearities and channel conditions.

Braun, W. R.↗

A new approach to turbulence modeling

A new approach to Reynolds averaged turbulence modeling is proposed which has a computational cost comparable to two equation models but a predictive capability approaching that of Reynolds stress transport models. This approach isolates the crucial information contained within the Reynolds stress tensor, and solves transport equations only for a set of 'reduced' variables. In this work, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data is used to analyze the nature of these newly proposed turbulence quantities and the source terms which appear in their respective transport equations. The physical relevance of these quantities is discussed and some initial modeling results for turbulent channel flow are presented.

Perot, B.↗

Revisiting of Multiscale Static Analysis of Notched Laminates Using the Generalized Method of Cells

Composite material systems generally exhibit a range of behavior on different length scales (from constituent level to macro); therefore, a multiscale framework is beneficial for the design and engineering of these material systems. The complex nature of the observed composite failure during experiments suggests the need for a three-dimensional (3D) multiscale model to attain a reliable prediction. However, the size of a multiscale three-dimensional finite element model can become prohibitively large and computationally costly. Two-dimensional (2D) models are preferred due to computational efficiency, especially if many different configurations have to be analyzed for an in-depth damage tolerance and durability design study. In this study, various 2D and 3D multiscale analyses will be employed to conduct a detailed investigation into the tensile failure of a given multidirectional, notched carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminate. Threedimensional finite element analysis is typically considered more accurate than a 2D finite element model, as compared with experiments. Nevertheless, in the absence of adequate mesh refinement, large differences may be observed between a 2D and 3D analysis, especially for a shear-dominated layup. This observed difference has not been widely addressed in previous literature and is the main focus of this paper.

Materials Engineering↗

Balancing reliability and cost to choose the best power subsystem

A mathematical model is presented for computing total (spacecraft) subsystem cost including both the basic subsystem cost and the expected cost due to the failure of the subsystem. This model is then used to determine power subsystem cost as a function of reliability and redundancy. Minimum cost and maximum reliability and/or redundancy are not generally equivalent. Two example cases are presented. One is a small satellite, and the other is an interplanetary spacecraft.

Suich, Ronald C.↗

An Advanced Meso-Scale Peridynamic Modeling Technology using High-Performance Computing for Cost-Effective Product Design and Testing of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composites in Light-weight Vehicles

We study a peridynamic composite modeling technology based on the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, implemented in the commercial LS-DYNA software, for modeling and prediction of failure in carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites. The proposed technology is developed for the material failure analysis at the meso-scale, which provides the prevailing fiber-matrix interaction mechanism, without adoption of the representative volume element method and thus avoiding complicated numerical calibration procedures. Three types of experimental tests—in-plane coupon test, out-of-plane coupon test, and a component crash test—are simulated in a high-performance computing environment to assess the performance of the proposed peridynamic composite modeling technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

RDMA vs. RPC for Implementing Distributed Data Structures

Distributed data structures are key to implementing scalable applications for scientific simulations and data analysis. In this paper we look at two implementation styles for distributed data structures: remote direct memory access (RDMA) and remote procedure call (RPC). We focus on operations that require individual accesses to remote portions of a distributed data structure, e.g., accessing a hash table bucket or distributed queue, rather than global operations in which all processors collectively exchange information. We look at the trade-offs between the two styles through microbenchmarks and a performance model that approximates the cost of each. The RDMA operations have direct hardware support in the network and therefore lower latency and overhead, while the RPC operations are more expressive but higher cost and can suffer from lack of attentiveness from the remote side. We also run experiments to compare the real-world performance of RDMA- and RPC-based data structure operations with the predicted performance to evaluate the accuracy of our model, and show that while the model does not always precisely predict running time, it allows us to choose the best implementation in the examples shown. We believe this analysis will assist developers in designing data structures that will perform well on current network architectures, as well as network architects in providing better support for this class of distributed data structures.

distributed data structures↗

SNM Radiation Signature Classification Using Different Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Models

The timely detection of special nuclear material (SNM) transfers between nuclear facilities is an important monitoring objective in nuclear nonproliferation. Persistent monitoring enabled by successful detection and characterization of radiological material movements could greatly enhance the nuclear nonproliferation mission in a range of applications. Supervised machine learning can be used to signal detections when material is present if a model is trained on sufficient volumes of labeled measurements. However, the nuclear monitoring data needed to train robust machine learning models can be costly to label since radiation spectra may require strict scrutiny for characterization. Therefore, this work investigates the application of semi-supervised learning to utilize both labeled and unlabeled data. As a demonstration experiment, radiation measurements from sodium iodide (NaI) detectors are provided by the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operating Scenarios (MINOS) venture at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as sample data. Anomalous measurements are identified using a method of statistical hypothesis testing. After background estimation, an energy-dependent spectroscopic analysis is used to characterize an anomaly based on its radiation signatures. In the absence of ground-truth information, a labeling heuristic provides data necessary for training and testing machine learning models. Supervised logistic regression serves as a baseline to compare three semi-supervised machine learning models: co-training, label propagation, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). In each case, the semi-supervised models outperform logistic regression, suggesting that unlabeled data can be valuable when training and demonstrating value in semi-supervised nonproliferation implementations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Thermochemical Platform Analysis WBS: 2.1.0.302

The objective of the NREL Thermochemical Platform Analysis (WBS 2.1.0.302) project is to inform and guide R&D priorities for thermal and catalytic conversion processes by providing process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This is achieved through close collaboration with researchers and external experts, along with the use of both commercially available modeling tools and the development or use of collaboration-derived domain-specific tools and resources, such as refinery integration, kinetic and reactor models, phase equilibrium models, and pertinent bio-products market studies. This project is directly aligned with DOE-BETO goals, with the enabling of technology advancements and cost reduction for biomass derived biofuels being one of its primary objectives. TEA-guided research facilitated by this project has helped achieve significant modeled cost reductions for the ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) pathway and the indirect liquefaction (IDL) pathway for the conversion of syngas to high-octane gasoline (HOG). Cost reduction through refinery integration, development of valuable co-products, and other options are being identified for future research to help reduce the modeled MFSP to $2.50/GGE by 2030. Additional priorities anticipated in the future, such as the use of renewable electricity for liquid fuels and products, and emphasis on waste utilization are also being explored in conjunction with research on catalytic utilization of syngas and other gases (including CO2). Industry-relevant parameters are given deliberate attention as part of the work done under this project to help answer questions important for future commercialization and address associated risks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Clustering representative days for power systems generation expansion planning: Capturing the effects of variable renewables and energy storage

Decision makers rely on models to make important regulatory, policy, and investment decisions. For power systems, these models must capture (i) the future challenges introduced by the integration of large quantities of variable renewable energy sources and (ii) the role that energy storage technologies should play. In this paper, we explore several different approaches to selecting representative days for generation expansion planning models, focusing on capturing these dynamics. Further, we propose a new methodology for adjusting the outputs of clustering algorithms that provides three advantages: the targeted level of net demand is captured, the underlying net demand shapes that define ramping challenges are accurately represented, and the relationship between annual energy and peak demand is captured. This weighting methodology reduces the magnitude of the error in the representative day based generation expansion planning models estimation of costs by 61% on average. The results also demonstrate the importance of carefully performing the clustering of representative days for both system costs and technology mix. In most cases improvements to the total cost of different representative day based expansion plans are realised where conventional generation capacity is substituted for energy storage. Based on the energy storage technology selected we conclude this capacity is being used to address ramping challenges as opposed to shifting renewable generation from off to on peak periods, reinforcing the importance of capturing detailed intraday dynamics in the representative day selection process.

Clustering↗

PLUM: Parallel Load Balancing for Adaptive Unstructured Meshes

Mesh adaption is a powerful tool for efficient unstructured-grid computations but causes load imbalance among processors on a parallel machine. We present a novel method called PLUM to dynamically balance the processor workloads with a global view. This paper presents the implementation and integration of all major components within our dynamic load balancing strategy for adaptive grid calculations. Mesh adaption, repartitioning, processor assignment, and remapping are critical components of the framework that must be accomplished rapidly and efficiently so as not to cause a significant overhead to the numerical simulation. A data redistribution model is also presented that predicts the remapping cost on the SP2. This model is required to determine whether the gain from a balanced workload distribution offsets the cost of data movement. Results presented in this paper demonstrate that PLUM is an effective dynamic load balancing strategy which remains viable on a large number of processors.

Oliker, Leonid↗

Cost-Effectiveness of Surgery, Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy, and Systemic Therapy for Pulmonary Oligometastases

Introduction: Pulmonary oligometastases have conventionally been managed with surgery and/or systemic therapy. However, given concerns about the high cost of systemic therapy and improvements in local treatment of metastatic cancer, the optimal cost-effective management of these patients is unclear. Therefore, we sought to assess the cost-effectiveness of initial management strategies for pulmonary oligometastases. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov modeling approach was used to compare average cumulative costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) among 3 initial disease management strategies: video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) wedge resection, stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), and systemic therapy among 5 different cohorts of patient disease: (1) melanoma; (2) non-small cell lung cancer adenocarcinoma without an EGFR mutation (NSCLC AC); (3) NSCLC with an EGFR mutation (NSCLC EGFRm AC); (4) NSCLC squamous cell carcinoma (NSCLC SCC); and (5) colon cancer. One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to analyze uncertainty with regard to model parameters. Results: In the base case, SBRT was cost effective for melanoma, with costs/net QALYs of $467,787/0.85. In patients with NSCLC, the most cost-effective strategies were SBRT for AC ($156,725/0.80), paclitaxel/carboplatin for SCC ($123,799/0.48), and erlotinib for EGFRm AC ($147,091/1.90). Stereotactic body radiation therapy was marginally cost-effective for EGFRm AC compared to erlotinib with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $126,303/QALY. For colon cancer, VATS wedge resection ($147,730/2.14) was the most cost-effective strategy. Variables with the greatest influence in the model were erlotinib-associated progression-free survival (EGFRm AC), toxicity (EGFRm AC), cost of SBRT (NSCLC SCC), and patient utilities (all histologies). Conclusions: Video-assisted thoracic surgery wedge resection or SBRT can be cost-effective in select patients with pulmonary oligometastases, depending on histology, efficacy, and tolerability of treatment and patient preferences.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Comparing Green and Grey Infrastructure Using Life Cycle Cost and Environmental Impact: A Rain Garden Case Study in Cincinnati, OH

Abstract Green infrastructure ( GI ) is quickly gaining ground as a less costly, greener alternative to traditional methods of stormwater management. One popular form of GI is the use of rain gardens to capture and treat stormwater. We used life cycle assessment ( LCA ) to compare environmental impacts of residential rain gardens constructed in the Shepherd's Creek watershed of Cincinnati, Ohio to those from a typical detain and treat system. LCA is an internationally standardized framework for analyzing the potential environmental performance of a product or service by including all stages in its life cycle, including material extraction, manufacturing, use, and disposal. Complementary to the life cycle environmental impact assessment, the life cycle costing approach was adopted to compare the equivalent annual costs of each of these systems. These analyses were supplemented by modeling alternative scenarios to capture the variability in implementing a GI strategy. Our LCA models suggest rain garden costs and impacts are determined by labor requirement; the traditional alternative's impacts are determined largely by the efficiency of wastewater treatment, while costs are determined by the expense of tunnel construction. Gardens were found to be the favorable option, both financially (~42% cost reduction) and environmentally (62‐98% impact reduction). Wastewater utilities may find significant life cycle cost and environmental impact reductions in implementing a rain garden plan.

Vineyard, Donald↗

Survey of Multifidelity Methods in Uncertainty Propagation, Inference, and Optimization

In many situations across computational science and engineering, multiple computational models are available that describe a system of interest. These different models have varying evaluation costs and varying fidelities. Typically, a computationally expensive high-fidelity model describes the system with the accuracy required by the current application at hand, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate but computationally cheaper than the high-fidelity model. Outer-loop applications, such as optimization, inference, and uncertainty quantification, require multiple model evaluations at many different inputs, which often leads to computational demands that exceed available resources if only the high-fidelity model is used. This work surveys multifidelity methods that accelerate the solution of outer-loop applications by combining high-fidelity and low-fidelity model evaluations, where the low-fidelity evaluations arise from an explicit low-fidelity model (e.g., a simplified physics approximation, a reduced model, a data-fit surrogate) that approximates the same output quantity as the high-fidelity model. The overall premise of these multifidelity methods is that low-fidelity models are leveraged for speedup while the high-fidelity model is kept in the loop to establish accuracy and/or convergence guarantees. We categorize multifidelity methods according to three classes of strategies: adaptation, fusion, and filtering. The paper reviews multifidelity methods in the outer-loop contexts of uncertainty propagation, inference, and optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Octane Gasoline from Lignocellulosic Biomass via Syngas and Methanol/Dimethyl Ether Intermediates: 2020 State of Technology

The 2020 state of technology (SOT) serves as an update to the 2019 SOT report and details the techno-economic analysis (TEA) results for producing high-octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL). This report only describes changes to the experimental and analysis results from previous SOTs; more details regarding the full process design can be found in the 2015 design report. The conversion pathway presented in this report includes the gasification of biomass, steam reforming and cleanup of the syngas, followed by the conversion of the syngas to HOG via methanol and dimethyl-ether (DME) intermediates. Research efforts in 2020 included the collection of experimental results over a variety of isobutane (iC4) to DME ratios in the feed of the DME-to-HOG reactor, enabling the TEA to identify the effect on modeled product yield and cost. Additionally, a significant re-build of the Aspen Plus model allowed for better integration of new research, however underlying conceptual and economic assumptions remain the same as those detailed in the 2015 deign report. The 2020 SOT also considers the potential for federal carbon tax credits from CO 2 capture in the acid-gas removal step and the impact on the final minimum fuel selling price.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An iterative algorithm combining model reduction and control design

A design strategy which integrates model reduction by modal cost analysis and a multiobjective controller design is proposed. The necessary modeling and control algorithms are easily programmed in Matlab standard software. Hence, this method is very practical for controller design for large space structures. The design algorithm also solves the very important problem of tuning multiple loop controllers (multi-input, multi-output, or MIMO). Instead of the single gain change that is used in standard root locus and gain and phase margin theories, this method tunes multiple loop controllers from low to high gain in a systematic way in the design procedure. This design strategy is applied to NASA's Mini-Mast system.

Hsieh, C.↗

Requirements for Enabling Extreme Fast Charging of High Energy Density Li-Ion Cells while Avoiding Lithium Plating

To improve electric vehicle market acceptance, the charge time of their batteries should be reduced to 10–15 minutes. However, achieving 4C to 6C charge rates with today’s batteries is only possible for cells with thin electrodes coming at the expense of low energy density and high battery manufacturing cost. An electrochemical model is validated versus high rate charge data for cells with several loadings. The model elucidates that the main limitations for high energy density cells are poor electrolyte transport resulting in salt depletion within the anode and Li plating at the graphite/separator interface. Next, the model is used to understand what future electrode and electrolyte properties can help enable 4C and 6C charging. Ideally, future electrolytes would be identified with 2X conductivity, 3–4X diffusivity, and transference number of 0.5–0.6. Alternatively charging at elevated temperatures enhances electrolyte transport by 1.5X conductivity and 2–3X diffusivity with a negligible effect on transference number. Another effective strategy to enable 4C and 6C charging is reducing electrode tortuosity. Conversely, increasing electrode porosity and negative/positive ratio are ineffective strategies to improve fast charge capability.

Batteries↗

Phase 1: Duke Energy Zero Emission Resource Integration Study (ZERIS); Phase 2: Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy (Final Report)

Phase 1: This statement of work makes up Phase 1 of a larger effort. During this Phase 1 effort, NREL will work with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of new solar power into the Duke Energy power system under a variety of different penetrations scenarios, with a maximum of ten (10) full scenarios examined. The existing fleet, particularly the nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessments and discussions. Duke Energy is looking to quantify how much solar generation its system can handle. NREL will work with Duke Energy to quantify solar potential, identify likely integration challenges and possible opportunities for wind, storage, demand side resources and other technologies. Phase 2: This Statement of Work consists of a follow-up effort (Phase 2) to a recently completed Phase 1 modeling effort. During Phase 2, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of variable generation resources (wind and solar) and storage into Duke Energy's system in the Carolinas. The existing fleet, particularly nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessment and discussions. This Statement of Work also includes an extension to Phase II of the Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy. In this extension, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to extend the production cost analysis developed in Phase II to 2018 weather and load data for Duke Energy's territory. This extension leverages the modeling tools and datasets developed as part of Phase II. The analysis will compare results from Phase II (using 2012 weather and load) with 2018 results to assess system operations with increased penetration of renewables and storage. Simplifying assumptions will be made for modeling Duke Energy's neighbors in the production cost model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗