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TRANSFORM: Catalyzing the Transition to a 21st Century Energy Economy - JISEA 2019 Annual Report

The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) provides leading-edge, objective, high impact research and analysis to guide transformative global energy investment and policy decisions. Through strategic insights and worldwide dialogue, JISEA explores the intersections of the environmental, social, financial, technological, and political elements of energy systems on the path to a clean energy economy. JISEA's work informs innovative solutions that advance the goals of sustainability, economic prosperity, and resilience. JISEA research and analysis provided decision-making support to industry, the financial sector, and government with a focus on the following strategic areas: Energy Systems Integration and Transformation, Energy in the Global Water-Food Nexus, and Circular Energy Economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exciton energy transfer reveals spectral signatures of excited states in clusters

Electronic excitation and concomitant energy transfer leading to Penning ionization in argon–acetylene clusters generated in a supersonic expansion are investigated with synchrotron-based photoionization mass spectrometry and electronic structure calculations. Spectral features in the photoionization efficiency of the mixed argon–acetylene clusters reveal a blue shift from the 2 P 1/2 and 2 P 3/2 excited states of atomic argon. Analysis of this feature suggests that excited states of argon clusters transfer energy to acetylene, resulting in its ionization and successive evaporation of argon. Theoretically calculated Ar n (n = 2–6) cluster spectra are in excellent agreement with experimental observations, and provide insight into the structure and ionization dynamics of the clusters. A comparison between argon–acetylene and argon–water clusters reveals that argon solvates water better, allowing for higher-order excitons and Rydberg states to be populated. Furthermore, these results are explained by theoretical calculations of respective binding energies and structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

LIGHT-ELEMENT ABUNDANCES OF GIANT STARS IN THE GLOBULAR CLUSTER M71 (NGC 6838)

Aluminum is the heaviest light element displaying large star-to-star variations in Galactic globular clusters (GCs). This element may provide additional insight into the origin of the multiple populations, now known to be common place in GCs, and also the nature of the first-generation stars responsible for a cluster's chemical inhomogeneities. In a previous analysis, we found that unlike more metal-poor GCs, 47 Tuc did not exhibit a strong Na-Al correlation, which motivates a careful study of the similar metallicity but less massive GC M71. We present chemical abundances of O, Na, Al, and Fe for 33 giants in M71 using spectra obtained with the WIYN-Hydra spectrograph. Our spectroscopic analysis finds that similar to 47 Tuc and in contrast with more metal-poor GCs, M71 stars do not exhibit a strong Na-Al correlation and span a relatively narrow range in [Al/Fe], which are characteristics that GC formation models must reproduce.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The simulation of 3D microcalcification clusters in 2D digital mammography and breast tomosynthesis

Purpose: This work proposes a new method of building 3D models of microcalcification clusters and describes the validation of their realistic appearance when simulated into 2D digital mammograms and into breast tomosynthesis images. Methods: A micro-CT unit was used to scan 23 breast biopsy specimens of microcalcification clusters with malignant and benign characteristics and their 3D reconstructed datasets were segmented to obtain 3D models of microcalcification clusters. These models were then adjusted for the x-ray spectrum used and for the system resolution and simulated into 2D projection images to obtain mammograms after image processing and into tomographic sequences of projection images, which were then reconstructed to form 3D tomosynthesis datasets. Six radiologists were asked to distinguish between 40 real and 40 simulated clusters of microcalcifications in two separate studies on 2D mammography and tomosynthesis datasets. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to test the ability of each observer to distinguish between simulated and real microcalcification clusters. The kappa statistic was applied to assess how often the individual simulated and real microcalcification clusters had received similar scores (''agreement'') on their realistic appearance in both modalities. This analysis was performed for all readers and for the real and the simulated group of microcalcification clusters separately. ''Poor'' agreement would reflect radiologists' confusion between simulated and real clusters, i.e., lesions not systematically evaluated in both modalities as either simulated or real, and would therefore be interpreted as a success of the present models. Results: The area under the ROC curve, averaged over the observers, was 0.55 (95% confidence interval [0.44, 0.66]) for the 2D study, and 0.46 (95% confidence interval [0.29, 0.64]) for the tomosynthesis study, indicating no statistically significant difference between real and simulated lesions (p > 0.05). Agreement between allocated lesion scores for 2D mammography and those for the tomosynthesis series was poor. Conclusions: The realistic appearance of the 3D models of microcalcification clusters, whether malignant or benign clusters, was confirmed for 2D digital mammography images and the breast tomosynthesis datasets; this database of clusters is suitable for use in future observer performance studies related to the detectability of microcalcification clusters. Such studies include comparing 2D digital mammography to breast tomosynthesis and comparing different reconstruction algorithms.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Bragg glass signatures in Pd x ErTe 3 with X-ray diffraction temperature clustering

The Bragg glass phase is a nearly perfect crystal with glassy features predicted to occur in vortex lattices and charge-density-wave systems in the presence of disorder. Detecting it has been challenging, despite its sharp theoretical definition in terms of diverging correlation lengths. Here we present bulk probe evidence supporting a Bragg glass phase in the systematically disordered charge-density-wave material of Pd x ErTe 3 . We do this by using comprehensive X-ray data and a machine-learning-based analysis tool called X-ray diffraction temperature clustering (X-TEC). We establish a diverging correlation length in samples with moderate intercalation over a wide temperature range. To enable this analysis, we introduced a high-throughput measure of inverse correlation length that we call peak spread. The detection of Bragg glass order and the resulting phase diagram advance our understanding of the complex interplay between disorder and fluctuations. Moreover, the use of our analysis technique to target fluctuations through a high-throughput measure of peak spread can revolutionize the study of fluctuations in scattering experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cooperatively enhanced hydrogen bonds in ionic liquids: closing the loop with molecular mimics of hydroxy-functionalized cations

Here, we address the cooperative hydrogen bonding interactions in play between the ionic constituents of ionic liquids (ILs) with particular attention to those involving the attractive interactions between two cations in the system 1-(2-hydroxyethyl)pyridinium tetrafluoroborate [HEPy][BF 4 ]. This is accomplished by comparing the temperature-dependent linear infrared spectra of [HEPy][BF 4 ] with that of the molecular mimic of its cation, 2-phenylethanol (PhenEthOH). We then explored the structural motifs of these H-bonded configurations at the molecular level by analyzing the cryogenic ion vibrational predissociation spectroscopy of cold (~35 K) gas phase cluster ions with quantum chemical methods. The analysis of the OH stretching bands reveals the formation of the various binding motifs ranging from the common +OH∙∙∙BF 4 - interaction in ion-pairs (c–a) to the unusual + OH∙∙∙ + OH interaction (c–c) in linear and cyclic, homodromic H-bonding domains. Replacing ion-pairs by the molecular (neutral) analogue of the IL cation also results in the formation of positively charged cyclic motifs, with the bands of the gas phase cationic cyclic tetramer (HEPy+)(PhenEthOH) 3 appearing quite close to those assigned previously to cyclic tetramers in the liquid. These conclusions are supported by density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the cationic and neutral clusters as well as the local structures in the liquid. Our combined experimental and theoretical approach for the gas and the liquid phases provides important insight into the competition between differently H-bonded and charged constituents in liquids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Topological data analysis of task-based fMRI data from experiments on schizophrenia

We use methods from computational algebraic topology to study functional brain networks, in which nodes represent brain regions and weighted edges represent similarity of fMRI time series from each region. With these tools, which allow one to characterize topological invariants such as loops in high-dimensional data, we are able to gain understanding into low-dimensional structures in networks in a way that complements traditional approaches based on pairwise interactions. In the present paper, we analyze networks constructed from task-based fMRI data from schizophrenia patients, healthy controls, and healthy siblings of schizophrenia patients using persistent homology, which allows us to explore the persistence of topological structures such as loops at different scales in the networks. We use persistence landscapes, persistence images, and Betti curves to create output summaries from our persistent-homology calculations, and we study the persistence landscapes and images using k-means clustering and community detection. Based on our analysis of persistence landscapes, we find that the members of the sibling cohort have topological features (specifically, their 1-dimensional loops) that are distinct from the other two cohorts. From the persistence images, we are able to distinguish all three subject groups and to determine the brain regions in the loops (with four or more edges) that allow us to make these distinctions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

THE DISTANCE DUALITY RELATION FROM STRONG GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

Under very general assumptions of the metric theory of spacetime, photons traveling along null geodesics and photon number conservation, two observable concepts of cosmic distance, i.e., the angular diameter and the luminosity distances are related to each other by the so-called distance duality relation (DDR) D{sup L}=D{sup A}(1+z){sup 2}. Observational validation of this relation is quite important because any evidence of its violation could be a signal of new physics. In this paper we introduce a new method to test the DDR based on strong gravitational lensing systems and type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) under a flat universe. The method itself is worth attention because unlike previously proposed techniques, it does not depend on all other prior assumptions concerning the details of cosmological model. We tested it using a new compilation of strong lensing (SL) systems and JLA compilation of SNe Ia and found no evidence of DDR violation. For completeness, we also combined it with previous cluster data and showed its power on constraining the DDR. It could become a promising new probe in the future in light of forthcoming massive SL surveys and because of expected advances in galaxy cluster modeling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Stellar Populations in Compact Galaxy Groups: a Multi-wavelength Study of HCGs 16, 22, and 42, Their Star Clusters, and Dwarf Galaxies

We present a multi-wavelength analysis of three compact galaxy groups, Hickson compact groups (HCGs) 16, 22, and 42, which describe a sequence in terms of gas richness, from space- (Swift, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and Spitzer) and ground-based (Las Campanas Observatory and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory) imaging and spectroscopy.We study various signs of past interactions including a faint, dusty tidal feature about HCG 16A, which we tentatively age-date at <1 Gyr. This represents the possible detection of a tidal feature at the end of its phase of optical observability. Our HST images also resolve what were thought to be double nuclei in HCG 16C and D into multiple, distinct sources, likely to be star clusters. Beyond our phenomenological treatment, we focus primarily on contrasting the stellar populations across these three groups. The star clusters show a remarkable intermediate-age population in HCG 22, and identify the time at which star formation was quenched in HCG 42. We also search for dwarf galaxies at accordant redshifts. The inclusion of 33 members and 27 "associates" (possible members) radically changes group dynamical masses, which in turn may affect previous evolutionary classifications. The extended membership paints a picture of relative isolation in HCGs 16 and 22, but shows HCG 42 to be part of a larger structure, following a dichotomy expected from recent studies. We conclude that (1) star cluster populations provide an excellent metric of evolutionary state, as they can age-date the past epochs of star formation; and (2) the extended dwarf galaxy population must be considered in assessing the dynamical state of a compact group.

Compact Galaxy↗

STELLAR POPULATIONS IN COMPACT GALAXY GROUPS: A MULTI-WAVELENGTH STUDY OF HCGs 16, 22, AND 42, THEIR STAR CLUSTERS, AND DWARF GALAXIES

We present a multi-wavelength analysis of three compact galaxy groups, Hickson compact groups (HCGs) 16, 22, and 42, which describe a sequence in terms of gas richness, from space- (Swift, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and Spitzer) and ground-based (Las Campanas Observatory and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory) imaging and spectroscopy. We study various signs of past interactions including a faint, dusty tidal feature about HCG 16A, which we tentatively age-date at <1 Gyr. This represents the possible detection of a tidal feature at the end of its phase of optical observability. Our HST images also resolve what were thought to be double nuclei in HCG 16C and D into multiple, distinct sources, likely to be star clusters. Beyond our phenomenological treatment, we focus primarily on contrasting the stellar populations across these three groups. The star clusters show a remarkable intermediate-age population in HCG 22, and identify the time at which star formation was quenched in HCG 42. We also search for dwarf galaxies at accordant redshifts. The inclusion of 33 members and 27 ''associates'' (possible members) radically changes group dynamical masses, which in turn may affect previous evolutionary classifications. The extended membership paints a picture of relative isolation in HCGs 16 and 22, but shows HCG 42 to be part of a larger structure, following a dichotomy expected from recent studies. We conclude that (1) star cluster populations provide an excellent metric of evolutionary state, as they can age-date the past epochs of star formation; and (2) the extended dwarf galaxy population must be considered in assessing the dynamical state of a compact group.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

HIGH-RESOLUTION XMM-NEWTON SPECTROSCOPY OF THE COOLING FLOW CLUSTER A3112

We examine high signal-to-noise XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera (EPIC) and Reflection Grating Spectrometer (RGS) observations to determine the physical characteristics of the gas in the cool core and outskirts of the nearby rich cluster A3112. The XMM-Newton Extended Source Analysis Software data reduction and background modeling methods were used to analyze the XMM-Newton EPIC data. From the EPIC data, we find that the iron and silicon abundance gradients show significant increase toward the center of the cluster while the oxygen abundance profile is centrally peaked but has a shallower distribution than that of iron. The X-ray mass modeling is based on the temperature and deprojected density distributions of the intracluster medium determined from EPIC observations. The total mass of A3112 obeys the M-T scaling relations found using XMM-Newton and Chandra observations of massive clusters at r{sub 500}. The gas mass fraction f{sub gas} = 0.149{sup +0.036}{sub -0.032} at r{sub 500} is consistent with the seven-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe results. The comparisons of line fluxes and flux limits on the Fe XVII and Fe XVIII lines obtained from high-resolution RGS spectra indicate that there is no spectral evidence for cooler gas associated with the cluster with temperature below 1.0 keV in the central <38'' ({approx}52 kpc) region of A3112. High-resolution RGS spectra also yield an upper limit to the turbulent motions in the compact core of A3112 (206 km s{sup -1}). We find that the contribution of turbulence to total energy is less than 6%. This upper limit is consistent with the energy contribution measured in recent high-resolution simulations of relaxed galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lightning Strike Distance Distribution Beyond a Preexisting Lightning Area

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) asked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to review the 30-year-old, lightning stand-off distances of 5 nautical miles (nmi) for applicability to today's operations. This was based on the realization that previous lightning strike distance studies did not match how 45 WS issues lightning warnings (Roeder, 2008). The previous lightning distance studies were from the point of origin of the lightning or the average starting location that would tend to be in the core of the thunderstorm. However, the 45 WS issues lightning warnings based on the edge of a preexisting lightning area. Before beginning the AMU project, it took several years to develop a method to calculate a distance distribution beyond a preexisting area (Roeder, 2015). The AMU pulled Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) sensor data from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2013. This dataset consisted of 37 million individual source data points from the LDAR sensors. Only sources within 50 km north, south, east or west of the LDAR grid center were included in the dataset. This limited the use of LDAR data to that with the greatest accuracy of source detection and increased data processing. Points were grouped into flashes based on spatial and temporal criteria. Based on the sensitivity analysis the AMU performed on the flash clustering algorithm, a time value of 0.3 seconds was found to model flashes adequately. Distance parameters were tested from 1,500 to 7,500 meters (m) in 500 m increments. Distance parameters of both 3,000 m and 4,000 m produced results in the plotting tool that were most representative of the physical behavior of lightning. Thus statistics were gathered for the most representative of these spatial and temporal criteria on the flash size and the polygon expansion distance in order to find the correct data distributions. The best fit curves for the LDAR polygon expansion frequency vs. distances for both the 3 kilometer (km) and 4 km distance threshold values were exponential decay functions and had R2 values of > 0.998, indicating good model fits. The equations of the best fit curves were then used to calculate a desired safety radius of 4 nmi for either 3 km or 4 km distance threshold criteria. The AMU analysis concludes the safe reduction of the 5 nmi lightning warning circles to 4 nmi should improve the operational impact by 36% if based on distance from the center of the property area being protected. If based on the edge of the property being protected, then the reduction is 4.5 nmi to 4 nmi and the operational impact is decreased by 21%. For the 6 nmi lightning warning circles, the recommended 4 nmi stand-off distance will result in a safe reduction of operational impact of 31% if based on the center of the area being protected, or 16% if based on the edge of the property.

Flash clustering algorithm↗

Galaxy clustering in harmonic space from the dark energy survey year 1 data: compatibility with real-space results

ABSTRACT We perform an analysis in harmonic space of the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Data (DES-Y1) galaxy clustering photometric data using products obtained for the real-space analysis. We test our pipeline with a suite of lognormal simulations, which are used to validate scale cuts in harmonic space as well as to provide a covariance matrix that takes into account the DES-Y1 mask. We then apply this pipeline to DES-Y1 data taking into account survey property maps derived for the real-space analysis. We compare with real-space DES-Y1 results obtained from a similar pipeline. We show that the harmonic space analysis we develop yields results that are compatible with the real-space analysis for the bias parameters. This verification paves the way to performing a harmonic space analysis for the upcoming DES-Y3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Interaction models and configurational entropies of binary MoTa and the MoNbTaW high entropy alloy

We introduce a simplified method to model the interatomic interactions of high entropy alloys based on a lookup table of cluster energies. Furthermore, these interactions are employed in replica exchange Monte Carlo simulations with histogram analysis to obtain thermodynamic properties across a broad temperature range. Kikuchi's cluster variation method entropy formalism is applied to directly calculate entropy from statistics on short- and long-range chemical order, and we discuss the convergence of the entropy as clusters of differing size are included. A high temperature series expansion aids in our understanding of the convergence. Computer codes implementing these methods, and supporting data, are freely available on the internet.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of the Amplitude of the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Effect out to Redshift z = 0.8

The interaction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) with the hot gas in clusters of galaxies, the so-called Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) effect, is a very useful tool that allows us to determine the physical conditions in such clusters and fundamental parameters of the cosmological models. In this work, we determine the dependence of the SZ surface brightness amplitude with redshift and mass of the clusters. We have used PLANCK+IRAS data in the microwave-far-infrared and a catalog with ≳10{sup 5} clusters of galaxies extracted from the SDSS by Wen et al. We estimate and subtract the dust emission from those clusters. From the residual flux, we extract its SZ flux densities. The absolute value of the SZ amplitude indicates that the gas mass is around 10% of the total mass for cluster masses of M∼10{sup 14} M{sub ⊙}. This amplitude is compatible with no evolution with redshift and proportional to M{sup 2.70±0.37} (using X-ray derived masses) or M{sup 2.51±0.38} (using weak-lensing derived masses), with some tension regarding the expectations of the self-similar dependence (amplitude proportional to M{sup 5/3}). Other secondary products of our analysis include that clusters have a dust emission with emissivity index β∼2 and temperature T∼25 K; we confirm that the CMB temperature agrees with a dependence of T{sub 0}(1+z) with clusters of much lower mass than those explored previously; and we find that the cluster masses derived by Wen et al. from a richness-mass relationship are biased by a factor of (1+z){sup −1.8} with respect to the X-ray and weak-lensing measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗