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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

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NASA NTRS2018

Health Monitoring and Prognostics for More Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining flying time/distance (for aircraft). This information is important, particularly in the case of unmanned vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of battery charge while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem.For electric aircraft, propulsion is based on power generated from batteries. Thus, it is critical to monitor battery state charge and to estimate the ability of the battery to support mission activities as it is being discharged during flight operation. The ability of the vehicle to complete its given mission very much depends on the charge left in the batteries based on its operational route, maneuvering, weather conditions along with aging health of the batteries. Hence, for the purpose this discussion, consider the scenario of an unmanned electric aircraft that has some planned sequence of waypoints to reach throughout its mission. In such a scenario, for this particular aircraft, and within the region it is flown, at most two minutes are required to safely land the aircraft. Thus, it is desired to predict at which point in time the aircraft must begin to head to the runway and land.

Goebel, Kai↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced-Order Modeling of Hydrogen Releases from Vent Stacks and with Wind

This report describes computational modeling in the HyRAM+ software for study of hydrogen behavior in two common scenarios. First, models of unignited plumes exiting a vent stack were considered. It was shown that entrainment and vent backpressure were major factors in plume physics. Second, HyRAM+ was extended to include wind effects on plumes by modifying the plume momentum balance and entrainment modeling. Use of the model showed that plume shape and length changed with wind speed and direction; in all cases, wind causes a shortening of the plume along the streamline. While the no-wind case in HyRAM+ has been validated and the newly developed wind model was fitted to very limited experimental data, more controlled experimental configurations would help validate the models and ensure accurate simulation of hydrogen plume behavior for vent stack releases or in wind.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Versatile TRISO fuel particle modeling in Bison

Tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles are a key component in several previous and current reactors as well as in a variety of novel nuclear reactor designs. Interest in TRISO fuel is on the rise, necessitating considerable computer modeling of TRISO fuel behavior in order to support related design and licensing activities. The Bison nuclear fuel performance code, which offers a full set of capabilities for modeling TRISO fuels, makes it easier to explore the various important aspects of TRISO fuel behavior. One key advantage of Bison is its ability to create meshes in 1D, 2D, and 3D. Users can customize these meshes for specific geometries, mesh densities, and use cases. This enables a wide variety of analyses, including thermal, structural, mass diffusion, homogenization, and statistical failure analyses. Furthermore, the meshing capability simplifies analysts’ workflows. The inherent mesh generation capability eliminates the need for separate mesh-generating software and mesh file management. Also, the fact that the meshes are customizable makes it straightforward to automate an investigation over a range of geometric parameters or mesh densities. Here, the present paper highlights the ease with which Bison may be used to create meshes for both simple and relatively complex TRISO fuel particles, and it explores the types of analyses enabled by these meshes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1996

Behavioral Implications of Piezoelectric Stack Actuators for Control of Micromanipulation

A lumped-parameter model of a piezoelectric stack actuator has been developed to describe actuator behavior for purposes of control system analysis and design, and in particular for microrobotic applications requiring accurate position and/or force control. In addition to describing the input-output dynamic behavior, the proposed model explains aspects of non-intuitive behavioral phenomena evinced by piezoelectric actuators, such as the input-output rate-independent hysteresis and the change in mechanical stiffness that results from altering electrical load. The authors incorporate a generalized Maxwell resistive capacitor as a lumped-parameter causal representation of rate-independent hysteresis. Model formulation is validated by comparing results of numerical simulations to experimental data.

Goldfarb, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of the Addition of a Low Equivalent Stress Mechanism to the Analysis of Geomechanical Behavior of the SPR West Hackberry Site

Sandia National Laboratories has long used the Munson-Dawson (M-D) model to predict the geomechanical behavior of salt caverns used to store oil at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Salt creep causes storage caverns to deform inward, thus losing volume. This loss of volume affects the salt above and around the caverns, puts stresses and strains on borehole casings, and creates surface subsidence which affects surface infrastructure. Therefore, accurate evaluation of salt creep behavior drives decisions about cavern operations. Parameters for the M-D model are typically fit against laboratory creep tests, but nearly all historic creep tests have been performed at equivalent stresses of 8 MPa or higher. Creep rates at lower equivalent stresses are very slow, such that tests take months or years to run, and the tests are sensitive to small temperature perturbations (<0.1°C). A recent collaboration between US and German researchers, recently characterized the creep behavior at low equivalent (deviatoric) stresses (<8 MPa) of salt from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. In addition, the M-D model was recently extended to include a low stress creep “mechanism”. This paper details new simulations of SPR caverns that use this extended M-D model, called the M-D Viscoplastic model. The results show that the inclusion of low stress creep significantly alters the prediction of steady-state cavern closure behavior and indicate that low stress creep is the dominant displacement mechanism at the dome scale. The implications for evaluating cavern and well integrity are demonstrated by investigating three phenomena: the extent of stress changes around the cavern; the predicted vertical strains applied to wellbore casings; and the evaluation of oscillating stress changes around the cavern due to oil sale cycles and their potential effect on salt fatigue.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interlaminar R-Curve Effects in Thermoplastic Composites: Experiments and Model Correlations

The interlaminar fracture behavior of thermoplastic composites under Mode-I and Mode-II static loading is investigated in this research. The material system under consideration is a carbon fiber reinforced low melt semi-crystalline resin TC1225 LMPAEK T700G (T700/LMPAEK)†. Characterization experiments were conducted to measure the load-displacement response, peak load, and propagation of delamination from a pre-implanted Kapton® insert. The Mode-I response was characterized using a double cantilever beam (DCB) test according to the ASTM D5528-22 standard. It was observed that the propagation exhibited significant resistance to delamination growth, i.e., an R-Curve effect. The test data indicated that the steady-state fracture toughness, G SS I , was approximately twice the mean initiation fracture toughness, G Ic . The Mode-II response of an end notch flexure (ENF) specimen tested according to the ASTM D7905-19 standard exhibited an unexpected stable behavior upon attaining peak load. Prior to attaining peak load, the Mode-II response exhibited some non-linearity, which may be attributed to nonlinear bulk material response, e.g., hyper-elasticity, viscoelasticity, plasticity, etc., and potentially friction at the load/support rollers and R-Curve effects. Finite element models based on the Cohesive Zone Method (CZM) and the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) were used to predict the DCB and ENF specimen responses. DCB analysis results obtained using G SS I predicted propagation consistent with experimental data. However, results obtained with the as characterized G Ic were inaccurate in predicting delamination growth onset and peak load. ENF analysis results obtained with the as-characterized Mode-II fracture toughness, G IIc , were inaccurate in predicting the peak load and propagation. Hence, R-Curve effects were included in both DCB and ENF simulations, which enabled improved predictions. The experimentally determined Mode-I R-Curve was used for the DCB simulations, whereas an R-Curve was derived for Mode-II assuming that the change in compliance of the specimen was associated with crack growth only.

Prabhakar M Rao↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interlaminar R-Curve Effects in Thermoplastic Composites: Experiments and Model Correlations

Prabhakar Rao↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOSCATO Development and Integration in Fiscal Year 2025: Implementation of Multiphase, Multiphysics Modeling Capabilities for Molten Salt Systems

MOSCATO (Molten Salt Chemistry and Transport) is a multiphysics code that provides high-fidelity, coupled simulations of fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemistry, electrochemical phenomena, and alloy corrosion for molten salt systems. In FY25, significant developments were made to the code package, enhancing its capabilities for modeling all relevant phenomena within operating moltens salt reactors (MSRs). The developments and activities in FY25 included: 1. Implementation of Level-Set methods to enable modeling of single-bubble behavior in molten salts. In FY25, the Level-Set two-phase flow modeling implementation was improved to simulate single bubble behavior with molten salt media. The large density and viscosity ratios between typical gases and molten salt liquids present challenges for these types of numerical solvers. With enhancements to the pressure projection method, MOSCATO’s Level-Set solver was able to be successfully validated to experiments related to helium bubble rise in stagnant molten salt. The simulated bubble rising velocity showed reasonable good agreement with experimental measurements. The bubble shape and dynamics were also visually compared with experimental snapshots, demonstrating a good qualitative match. 2. Generation of mass transfer correlations for multiphase flow systems. To enable calculations of the tritium transport across the interface between gas bubbles and salt, we modeled high- Schmidt-number mass transfer around a sphere across a broad range of Reynolds numbers. The mesh near the sphere surface was highly refined to resolve steep concentration gradients caused by the low diffusion coefficient. Literature-based mass transfer correlations were compared with the numerical results, and modifications were proposed to improve agreement, particularly at higher Schmidt numbers. These mass transfer correlations were subsequently provided to other national laboratories to help enable high quality mass transfer simulations using lower-order solvers under development within the NEAMS program. 3. Preliminary implementation of a bubbly flow solver. To model bubbly flow in molten salt, we implemented a bubbly flow solver for void fractions less than 5%. To do so, an algebraic relative velocity model that assumes small bubbles with rapid momentum equilibration was added to MOSCATO to compute bubble velocities. Preliminary comparisons with experimental data showed reasonable agreement, and further improvements are underway. 4. Generation of mass transfer correlations for MSRE subchannel The Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) was a landmark historical project that demonstrated the feasibility of molten-salt reactor technology. The MSRE campaign also generated a significant body of experimental data and reports that continue to support molten-salt–related research. In this report, the MSRE core subchannel was used as the reference geometry for a mass transfer study performed with MOSCATO. The geometry and computational mesh were adapted from a previous study, providing adequate resolution for the relatively low Reynolds number in this case. Additional mesh refinement was applied to reach higher Schmidt numbers, enabling the derivation of a reliable mass-transfer correlation for the present scenario. 5. Simulations of oxygen ingressions into molten salt. In the previous fiscal year, we initiated a study to simulate oxygen ingression in stagnant salt. As oxygen enters the salt through its surface, it reacts with Ce 3+ to form solid CeO 2 and other reaction products. To more fully capture the complex diffusion-convection-reaction mechanisms, capabilities for modeling natural convection in the salt vessel were added. These were needed as the flow of the ingressed gas induced flow in the salt caused by surface shear and non-isothermal effects. With these updated physics in place, we were able to successfully reproduce the experimental results for the rate of change of CeCl 3 concentrations versus time. 6. Flow corrosion model validation. In FY24, MOSCATO’s corrosion model was validated against static corrosion experiments. In FY25, this work was extended to a flow corrosion experiment, where FLiNaK salt was driven by natural convection, with initial salt impurities to initiate corrosion. Despite uncertainties in parameters such as elemental diffusion coefficients in the alloy and unknown H + concentrations, the simulations achieved good agreement with experimental results, especially in predicting sample mass losses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ruthenium solubility and its impact on the crystallization behavior and electrical conductivity of MoO 3 -containing borosilicate-based model high-level nuclear waste glasses

The present study focuses on investigating the solubility of RuO 2 in a borosilicate-based model high-level waste glass and understanding its impact on the crystallization behavior and electrical conductivity of the resulting vitrified waste forms. The solubility limit of RuO 2 in the investigated glass composition has been determined to be 460 ppm by weight. The higher concentration of RuO 2 results in sub-micron sized Ru-rich inclusions in the glassy matrix, which eventually agglomerate to form needle-like and polyhedral RuO 2 crystals. It is observed that RuO 2 selectively promotes the crystallization of the rare-earth apatite phase over the powellite phase. The as-synthesized RuO 2 -containing glasses exhibit semiconducting behavior with a similar level of electrical conductivity below the glass transition. Here, the percolation of non-uniformly distributed RuO 2 inclusions may result in a formation of short-range low-resistive conduction pathways in the host glass matrix leading to an apparent metallic-like behavior of selected thin samples with the highest ruthenium content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of dynamic crystal plasticity with a Lagrangian discontinuous Galerkin hydrodynamic method

Here we present a new Lagrangian modal discontinuous Galerkin (DG) hydrodynamic method that supports a dynamic dislocation based crystal plasticity model for simulating the mechanical behavior of crystallographic materials, both single crystal and polycrystalline, under dynamic conditions. A modal DG approach is used to evolve fields relevant to conservation laws. These fields are approximated by Taylor series polynomials of varying degree. These polynomials describe macro-scale hydrodynamic behavior while their evolution is determined by evaluating the dynamic crystal plasticity model at material points within the element. The dynamic crystal plasticity model is sensitive to the time increment size, with too large of time increments leading to instability in the model. To mitigate this, the temporal evolution of the dynamic crystal plasticity model is achieved with the combination of a sub-incrementing scheme with Heun’s third-order time integration scheme, which is also used to temporally evolve the governing equations. The implementation of the dynamic crystal plasticity model within the DG framework is tested using a 2D approximation of the Taylor impact test with a single crystal material, using quadratic elements that have faces that can bend. In addition to the standard continuous material modeling, we propose a new simulation method that would represent the heterogeneous behavior of polycrystalline microstructures within an element by varying the position and material properties of the material points within the element. This method is demonstrated using random orientation distributions on materials points that are arranged in both structured and random configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airburst & Blast Damage Modeling Sensitivities for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Blast overpressure from a high-energy airburst or surface impact is the primary source of damage from potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. There are many sources of uncertainty in evaluating these potential damage risks, both in the approaches used to model the entry, breakup, and airburst behaviors of diverse asteroid properties, and in the blast modeling approaches used to estimate the ground damage from these very large-scale, high-energy events. In this study, we use NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate trends and sensitivities in asteroid airburst altitudes and the resulting blast damage estimates across a range of asteroid sizes. In particular, we show how uncertainties in asteroid breakup behavior and effective airburst altitudes combine with height-of-burst (HOB) blast damage models to produce key sensitivities and trends in the amount of damage expected from different asteroid sizes and airburst altitudes. We show airburst altitude ranges and probabilities stemming from asteroid entry and breakup modeling uncertainties, compare differences between traditional nuclear-based HOB blast models and simulation-based HOB models for larger asteroid energies, and show how the resulting interplay between likely burst altitudes and optimal burst heights affects blast damage trends across different asteroid sizes. Finally, we combine the relative likelihoods of asteroid sizes, airburst altitudes, and resulting blast damage severity to evaluate what airburst regimes pose the highest overall level of risk (when considering both the relative likelihood and scale of potential damage) for a mid-sized asteroid threat scenario. Results show what asteroid size regimes are most sensitive to airburst and blast modeling uncertainties, provide insight into nonintuitive trends in the size and severity of blast damage expected from different airburst events, and highlight where additional blast modeling studies or refinements may help improve future impact risk estimates

ATAP↗

DOE OSTI2021

In-situ magnetic alignment model for additive manufacturing of anisotropic bonded magnets

In this work, we report a mathematical framework which predicts the degree of alignment (DoA) in an in-situ aligned additively manufactured 3D printed bonded magnets. A multiphysics model is developed which couples the harmonious interactions of magnetic particles in a viscous flowing polymer under the presence of an external magnetic field. The hydrodynamic fluid-particle interaction is paired with the magnetophoretic force to predict the particle trajectory and distribution during extrusion through a 3D printer nozzle. Succeeding the force balance, a magnetohydrodynamic torque equilibrium analysis is performed to predict the net-orientation of the magnetic particles as a function of the applied field strength, viscous forces, and particle-to-particle interactions (P2P). Experimental validation of the DoA predictions is performed using 65 vol% Nd-Fe-B+Sm-Fe-N in Nylon12 (DoA exp = 0.620 and DoA theory = 0.686) and 15 vol% Sm-Co in PLA (DoA exp = 0.830 and DoA theory = 0.863). A parametric analysis is performed to analyze the effect of operating and design parameters like alignment field strength, magnetic loading fraction, extrusion load, and particle size. The model predicts a competing behavior between particle-fluid and particle-particle interactions under the presence of an applied field. Lastly, the model provides a framework to efficiently predict the DoA in tandem with a functionalized-magnetic 3D printer and allows the user to adjust the operating parameters according to the desired DoA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

BISON Development and Validation for Priority LWR-ATF concepts

Over the years, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) (2015-2018, 2020) and Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) (2019) programs have provided support for development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) material models in the BISON fuel performance code. Since the beginning, the goal has been to utilize a multiscale modeling approach to gain a physical understanding of the fuel concepts of interest and to develop mechanistic models in the absence of a large amount of experimental data. This work builds upon that of previous years. In particular we present newly updated fission gas release models for both gas behavior in Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 and U 3 Si 2 fuels, and a new creep model for U 3 Si 2 . The validation exercises completed last year are revisited with the latest models and the results updated. A brief summary of recent modeling activities for FeCrAl cladding is also provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Fission-induced plasmas

The possibility of creating a plasma from fission fragments, and to utilize the energy of the particles to create population inversion that would lead to laser action is investigated. An investigation was made of various laser materials which could be used for nuclear-pumped lasing. The most likely candidate for a fissioning material in the gaseous form is uranium hexafluoride - UF6, and experiments were performed to investigate materials that would be compatible with it. One of the central problems in understanding a fission-induced plasma is to obtain a model of the electron behavior, and some preliminary calculations are presented. In particular, the rates of various processes are discussed. A simple intuitive model of the electron energy distribution function is also shown. The results were useful for considering a mathematical model of a nuclear-pumped laser. Next a theoretical model of a (3)He-Ar nuclear-pumped laser is presented. The theory showed good qualitative agreement with the experimental results.

Harries, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.↗