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Selected Systems Engineering Process Deficiencies and Their Consequences

The systems engineering process is well established and well understood. While this statement could be argued in the light of the many systems engineering guidelines and that have been developed, comparative review of these respective descriptions reveal that they differ primarily in the number of discrete steps or other nuances, and are at their core essentially common. Likewise, the systems engineering textbooks differ primarily in the context for application of systems engineering or in the utilization of evolved tools and techniques, not in the basic method. Thus, failures in systems engineering cannot credibly be attributed to implementation of the wrong systems engineering process among alternatives. However, numerous systems failures can be attributed to deficient implementation of the systems engineering process. What may clearly be perceived as a system engineering deficiency in retrospect can appear to be a well considered system engineering efficiency in real time - an efficiency taken to reduce cost or meet a schedule, or more often both. Typically these efficiencies are grounded on apparently solid rationale, such as reuse of heritage hardware or software. Over time, unintended consequences of a systems engineering process deficiency may begin to be realized, and unfortunately often the consequence is system failure. This paper describes several actual cases of system failures that resulted from deficiencies in their systems engineering process implementation, including the Ariane 5 and the Hubble Space Telescope.

Thomas, Lawrence Dale↗

Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Brazilian Amazon: Smallholders, Ranchers and Frontier Stratification

Tropical deforestation is a significant driver of global environmental change, given its impacts on the carbon cycle and biodiversity. Loss of the Amazon forest, the focus of this article, is of particular concern because of the size and the rapid rate at which the forest is being converted to agricultural use. In this article, we identify what has been the most important driver of deforestation in a specific colonization frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. To this end, we consider (1) the land-use dynamics of smallholder households, (2) the formation of pasture by large-scale ranchers, and (3) structural processes of land aggregation by ranchers. Much has been written about relations between smallholders and ranchers in the Brazilian Amazon, particularly those involving conflict over land, and this article explicates the implications of such social processes for land cover. Toward this end, we draw on panel data (1996-2002) and satellite imagery (1986-1999) to show the deforestation that is attributable to small- and largeholders, and the deforestation that is attributable to aggregations of property arising from a process that we refer to as frontier stratification. Evidently, most of the recent deforestation in the study area has resulted from the household processes of smallholders, not from conversions to pasture pursuant to the appropriations of smallholders' property by well-capitalized ranchers or speculators.

Aldrich, Stephen P.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗

A Deeper Look at the Fundamentals of Heterodyne Detection Requirements

We generally accept the experimentally observed criteria for heterodyne detections that the two waves that are mixed must (i) be collinear, (ii) have matched wave fronts and (iii) cannot be orthogonally polarized. We have not found in the literature adequate physical explanations for these requirements. The purpose of this paper is to find deeper physical understanding of the coherent heterodyne detection processes that could lead to better coherent laser radar system designs1. We find that there are a number of unresolved paradoxes in classical and quantum optics regarding the definitions and understanding of the "interference" and "coherence" properties of light, which are attributed as essentially due to inherent properties of the EM waves. A deeper exploration indicates that it is the various quantum mechanical properties of the detecting material dipoles that make light detectable (visible, or measurable) to us. Accordingly, all the properties that we generally attribute to only light, are in reality manifestations of collective properties of dipole-light interactions. "Interference" and "coherence" can be better understood in terms of this mutual interaction, followed by energy absorption by the dipoles from EM wave fields, manifesting in some measurable transformation of the detecting dipoles. Light beams do not interfere by themselves. The superposition effects due to light beams become manifest through the response characteristics of the detecting dipoles. In this paper, we will show some preliminary expe rimental results that clearly demonstrate that the heterodyning wave fronts have quantitative degradation in signal generation as the angle between them deviates from perfect collinearity. Subsequently, we will propose a hypothesis for this behavior. We will present experimental data establishing that the so called incoherent light can be detected through heterodyne mixing as long as the pulse length contained in the "incoherent" light is longer than the response time of the detector. We will also present a correspondingly better interpretation of two distinguishable coherence properties, temporal coherence and spectral coherence. Our investigation provides a deeper insight into how to rela x various system requirements for heterodyne detection and accordingly develop systems that are simpler, more reliable and lower in cost. Also, we believe that engineering of detector architecture by appropriately modifying dipole behavior using emerging nanotechnology to optimize heterodyne efficiency will be advantageous.

Roychoudhuri, Chandrasekhar↗

Propagation of Computational Uncertainty Using the Modern Design of Experiments

This paper describes the use of formally designed experiments to aid in the error analysis of a computational experiment. A method is described by which the underlying code is approximated with relatively low-order polynomial graduating functions represented by truncated Taylor series approximations to the true underlying response function. A resource-minimal approach is outlined by which such graduating functions can be estimated from a minimum number of case runs of the underlying computational code. Certain practical considerations are discussed, including ways and means of coping with high-order response functions. The distributional properties of prediction residuals are presented and discussed. A practical method is presented for quantifying that component of the prediction uncertainty of a computational code that can be attributed to imperfect knowledge of independent variable levels. This method is illustrated with a recent assessment of uncertainty in computational estimates of Space Shuttle thermal and structural reentry loads attributable to ice and foam debris impact on ascent.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Processes Influencing Ozone Levels in Alaskan Forest Fires Plumes during Long-Range Transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by 3 different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, is used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data, and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume is investigated using in-situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18 percent in O3 production and 24 percent in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume towards Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport, and also, on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutants level in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume are also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes changed from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting small underestimation of photochemical processes. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the Europe boundary layer is also examined by running the model for a further 5 days, and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over this 10 days due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost due to the effects of dilution. However, measurement in several others BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be punctually significant over Europe.

Real, E.↗

A Synopsis of Interfacial Phenomena in Lithium-Based Polymer Electrolyte Electrochemical Cells

The interfacial regions between electrode materials, electrolytes and other cell components play key roles in the overall performance of lithium-based batteries. For cell chemistries employing lithium metal, lithium alloy or carbonaceous materials (i.e., lithium-ion cells) as anode materials, a "solid electrolyte interphase" (SEI) layer forms at the anode/electrolyte interface, and the properties of this "passivating" layer significantly affect the practical cell/battery quality and performance. A thin, ionically-conducting SEI on the electrode surface can beneficially reduce or eliminate undesirable side reactions between the electrode and the electrolyte, which can result in a degradation in cell performance. The properties and phenomena attributable to the interfacial regions existing at both anode and cathode surfaces can be characterized to a large extent by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and related techniques. The intention of the review herewith is to support the future development of lithium-based polymer electrolytes by providing a synopsis of interfacial phenomena that is associated with cell chemistries employing either lithium metal or carbonaceous "composite" electrode structures which are interfaced with polymer electrolytes (i.e., "solvent-free" as well as "plasticized" polymer-binary salt complexes and single ion-conducting polyelectrolytes). Potential approaches to overcoming poor cell performance attributable to interfacial effects are discussed.

Baldwin, Richard S.↗

Oxidation of C/SiC Composites at Reduced Oxygen Partial Pressures

T-300 carbon fibers and T-300 carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide composites (C/SiC) were oxidized in flowing reduced oxygen partial pressure environments at a total pressure of one atmosphere (0.5 atm O2, 0.05 atm O2 and 0.005 atm O2, balance argon). Experiments were conducted at four temperatures (816deg, 1149deg, 1343deg, and 1538 C). The oxidation kinetics were monitored using thermogravimetric analysis. T-300 fibers were oxidized to completion for times between 0.6 and 90 h. Results indicated that fiber oxidation kinetics were gas phase diffusion controlled. Oxidation rates had an oxygen partial pressure dependence with a power law exponent close to one. In addition, oxidation rates were only weakly dependent on temperature. The C/SiC coupon oxidation kinetics showed some variability, attributed to differences in the number and width of cracks in the SiC seal coat. In general, weight losses were observed indicating oxidation of the carbon fibers dominated the oxidation behavior. Low temperatures and high oxygen pressures resulted in the most rapid consumption of the carbon fibers. At higher temperatures, the lower oxidation rates were primarily attributed to crack closure due to SiC thermal expansion, rather than oxidation of SiC since these reduced rates were observed even at the lowest oxygen partial pressures where SiC oxidation is minimal.

Opila, E. J.↗

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.↗

Spectral Separation of the Turbofan Engine Coherent Combustion Noise Component

The core noise components of a dual spool turbofan engine (Honeywell TECH977) were separated by the use of a coherence function. A source location technique based on adjusting the time delay between the combustor pressure sensor signal and the far-field microphone signal to maximize the coherence and remove as much variation of the phase angle with frequency as possible was used. While adjusting the time delay to maximize the coherence and minimize the cross spectrum phase angle variation with frequency, the discovery was made that for the 130 microphone a 90.027 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 0 to 200 Hz while a 86.975 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 200 to 400 Hz. Since the 0 to 200 Hz band signal took more time to travel the same distance, it is slower than the 200 to 400 Hz band signal. This suggests the 0 to 200 Hz coherent cross spectral density band is partly due to indirect combustion noise attributed to hot spots interacting with the turbine. The signal in the 200 to 400 Hz frequency band is attributed mostly to direct combustion noise.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

Sensor Technologies for Particulate Detection and Characterization

Planned Lunar missions have resulted in renewed attention to problems attributable to fine particulates. While the difficulties experienced during the sequence of Apollo missions did not prove critical in all cases, the comparatively long duration of impending missions may present a different situation. This situation creates the need for a spectrum of particulate sensing technologies. From a fundamental perspective, an improved understanding of the properties of the dust fraction is required. Described here is laboratory-based reference instrumentation for the measurement of fundamental particle size distribution (PSD) functions from 2.5 nanometers to 20 micrometers. Concomitant efforts for separating samples into fractional size bins are also presented. A requirement also exists for developing mission compatible sensors. Examples include provisions for air quality monitoring in spacecraft and remote habitation modules. Required sensor attributes such as low mass, volume, and power consumption, autonomy of operation, and extended reliability cannot be accommodated by existing technologies.

Greenberg, Paul S.↗

Time Delay Analysis of Turbofan Engine Direct and Indirect Combustion Noise Sources

The core noise components of a dual spool turbofan engine were separated by the use of a coherence function. A source location technique based on adjusting the time delay between the combustor pressure sensor signal and the far-field microphone signal to maximize the coherence and remove as much variation of the phase angle with frequency as possible was used. The discovery was made that for the 130o microphone a 90.027 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 0 to 200 Hz while a 86.975 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 200 to 400 Hz. Hence, the 0 to 200 Hz band signal took more time than the 200 to 400 Hz band signal to travel the same distance. This suggests the 0 to 200 Hz coherent cross spectral density band is partly due to indirect combustion noise attributed to entropy fluctuations, which travel at the flow velocity, interacting with the turbine. The signal in the 200 to 400 Hz frequency band is attributed mostly to direct combustion noise. Results are presented herein for engine power settings of 48, 54, and 60 percent of the maximum power setting

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

Mitigating Photon Jitter in Optical PPM Communication

A theoretical analysis of photon-arrival jitter in an optical pulse-position-modulation (PPM) communication channel has been performed, and now constitutes the basis of a methodology for designing receivers to compensate so that errors attributable to photon-arrival jitter would be minimized or nearly minimized. Photon-arrival jitter is an uncertainty in the estimated time of arrival of a photon relative to the boundaries of a PPM time slot. Photon-arrival jitter is attributable to two main causes: (1) receiver synchronization error [error in the receiver operation of partitioning time into PPM slots] and (2) random delay between the time of arrival of a photon at a detector and the generation, by the detector circuitry, of a pulse in response to the photon. For channels with sufficiently long time slots, photon-arrival jitter is negligible. However, as durations of PPM time slots are reduced in efforts to increase throughputs of optical PPM communication channels, photon-arrival jitter becomes a significant source of error, leading to significant degradation of performance if not taken into account in design. For the purpose of the analysis, a receiver was assumed to operate in a photon- starved regime, in which photon counts follow a Poisson distribution. The analysis included derivation of exact equations for symbol likelihoods in the presence of photon-arrival jitter. These equations describe what is well known in the art as a matched filter for a channel containing Gaussian noise. These equations would yield an optimum receiver if they could be implemented in practice. Because the exact equations may be too complex to implement in practice, approximations that would yield suboptimal receivers were also derived.

Moision, Bruce↗

CCSDS Mission Operations Action Service Core Capabilities

This slide presentation reviews the operations concepts of the command (action) services. Since the consequences of sending the wrong command are unacceptable, the command system provides a collaborative and distributed work environment for flight controllers and operators. The system prescribes a review and approval process where each command is viewed by other individuals before being sent to the vehicle. The action service needs additional capabilities to support he operations concepts of manned space flight. These are : (1) Action Service methods (2) Action attributes (3) Action parameter/argument attributes (4 ) Support for dynamically maintained action data. (5) Publish subscri be capabilities.

Reynolds, Walter F.↗

Use of Acoustic Emission to Monitor Progressive Damage Accumulation in Kevlar (R) 49 Composites

Acoustic emission (AE) data acquired during intermittent load hold tensile testing of epoxy impregnated Kevlar(Registeres TradeMark) 49 (K/Ep) composite strands were analyzed to monitor progressive damage during the approach to tensile failure. Insight into the progressive damage of K/Ep strands was gained by monitoring AE event rate and energy. Source location based on energy attenuation and arrival time data was used to discern between significant AE attributable to microstructural damage and spurious AE attributable to noise. One of the significant findings was the observation of increasing violation of the Kaiser effect (Felicity ratio < 1.0) with damage accumulation. The efficacy of three different intermittent load hold stress schedules that allowed the Felicity ratio to be determined analytically is discussed.

Waller, Jess M.↗

Large Eddy Simulation of Transonic Flow Field in NASA Rotor 37

The current paper reports on numerical investigations on the flow characteristics in a transonic axial compressor, NASA Rotor 37. The flow field was used previously as a CFD blind test case conducted by American Society of Mechanical Engineers in 1994. Since the CFD blind-test exercise, many numerical studies on the flow field in the NASA Rotor 37 have been reported. Although steady improvements have been reported in both numerical procedure and turbulence closure, it is believed that all the important aspects of the flow field have not been fully explained with numerical studies based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solution. Experimental data show large dip in total pressure distribution near the hub at downstream of the rotor at 100% rotor speed. Most original numerical solutions from the blind test exercise did not predict this total pressure deficit correctly. This total pressure deficit at the rotor exit was attributed to a hub corner flow separation by the author. Several subsequent numerical studies with different turbulence closure model also calculated this dip in total pressure rise. Also, several studies attributed this total pressure deficit to a small leakage flow coming from the hub in the test article. As the experimental study cannot be repeated, either explanation cannot be validated. The primary purpose of the current investigation is to investigate the transonic flow field with both RANS and a Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The RANS approach gives similar results presented at the original blind test exercise. Although the RANS calculates higher overall total pressure rise, the total pressure deficit near the hub is calculated correctly. The numerical solution shows that the total pressure deficit is due to a hub corner flow separation. The calculated pressure rise from the LES agrees better with the measured total pressure rise especially near the casing area where the passage shock interacts with the tip clearance vortex and flow becomes unsteady due to this interaction. The LES simulation also calculates the total pressure rise deficit near the hub and it agrees well with the measured data.

Hah, Chunill↗

In-Situ NDE Characterization of Kevlar and Carbon Composite Micromechanics for Improved COPV Health Monitoring

This project is a subtask of a multi-center project to advance the state-of-the-art by developing NDE techniques that are capable of evaluating stress rupture (SR) degradation in Kevlar/epoxy (K/Ep) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), and damage progression in carbon/epoxy (C/Ep) COPVs. In this subtask, acoustic emission (AE) data acquired during intermittent load hold tensile testing of K/Ep and C/Ep composite tow materials-of-construction used in COPV fabrication were analyzed to monitor progressive damage during the approach to tensile failure. Insight into the progressive damage of composite tow was gained by monitoring AE event rate, energy, source location, and frequency. Source location based on arrival time data was used to discern between significant AE attributable to microstructural damage and spurious AE attributable to background and grip noise. One of the significant findings was the observation of increasing violation of the Kaiser effect (Felicity ratio < 1.0) with damage accumulation.

Waller, Jess M.↗

Advanced Reference Counting Pointers for Better Performance

A computer program implements reference counting pointers (RCPs) that are lock-free, thread-safe, async-safe, and operational on a multiprocessor computer. RCPs are powerful and convenient means of managing heap memory in C++ software. Most prior RCP programs use locks to ensure thread safety and manage concurrency. The present program was developed in a continuing effort to explore ways of using the C++ programming language to develop safety-critical and mission- critical software. This effort includes exploration of lock-free algorithms because they offer potential to avoid some costly and difficult verification problems. Unlike previously published RCP software, the present program does not use locks (meaning that no thread can block progress on another thread): Instead, this program implements algorithms that exploit capabilities of central-processing- unit hardware so as to avoid locks. Once locks are eliminated, it becomes possible to realize the other attributes mentioned in the first sentence. In addition to the abovementioned attributes, this program offers several advantages over other RCP programs that use locks: It is smaller (and, hence, is faster and uses less memory), it is immune to priority inversion, and there is no way for it to cause a C++ exception.

Reinholtz, William↗