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At least 1,693 records · Page 94
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of turbulence intensity as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model off the US northeast coast

We report turbulence intensity (TI) is often used to quantify the strength of turbulence in wind energy applications and serves as the basis of standards in wind turbine design. Thus, accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in TI should lead to improved predictions of power production. Nevertheless, turbulence measurements over the ocean are far less prevalent than over land due to challenges in instrumental deployment, maintenance, and operation. Atmospheric models such as mesoscale (weather prediction) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models are commonly used in the wind energy industry to assess the spatial variability of a given site. However, the TI derivation from atmospheric models has not been well examined. An algorithm is proposed in this study to realize online calculation of TI in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated TI is divided into two components depending on scale, including sub-grid (parameterized based on turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)) and grid resolved. The sensitivity of sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated TI is also tested. An assessment is performed by using observations collected during a field campaign conducted from February to June 2020 near the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory. Results show that while simulated TKE is generally smaller than the lidar-observed value, wind speed bias is usually small. Overall, this leads to a slight underestimation in sub-grid-scale estimated TI. Improved SST representation subsequently reduces model biases in atmospheric stability as well as wind speed and sub-grid TI near the hub height. Large TI events in conjunction with mesoscale weather systems observed during the studied period pose a challenge to accurately estimating TI from models. Due to notable uncertainty in accurately simulating those events, this suggests summing up sub-grid and resolved TI may not be an ideal solution. Efforts in further improving skills in simulating mesoscale flow and cloud systems are necessary as the next steps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Port Angle on Scavenging of an Opposed Piston Two-Stroke Engine

Opposed-piston 2-stroke (OP-2S) engines have the potential to achieve higher thermal efficiency than a typical diesel engine. However, the uniflow scavenging process is difficult to control over a wide range of speeds and loads. Scavenging performance is highly sensitive to pressure dynamics, port timings, and port design. This study proposes an analysis of the effects of port vane angle on the scavenging performance of an opposed-piston 2-stroke engine via simulation. A CFD model of a three-cylinder opposed-piston 2-stroke was developed and validated against experimental data collected by Achates Power Inc. One of the three cylinders was then isolated in a new model and simulated using cycle-averaged and cylinder-averaged initial/ boundary conditions. This isolated cylinder model was used to efficiently sweep port angles from 12 degrees to 29 degrees at different pressure ratios. Results indicate that scavenging performance is correlated with the bulk swirl ratio generated by these port angles. Scavenging performance is also sensitive to the pressure ratio across the engine. It was concluded that, for a given pressure ratio, the smallest port angle produces the best scavenging; however, previous work indicates lower bulk swirl ratio during combustion can have an impact on emissions formation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase diagram of the TIP4P/Ice water model by enhanced sampling simulations

In this work, we studied the phase diagram for the TIP4P/Ice water model using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations. Our approach is based on the calculation of ice–liquid free energy differences from biased coexistence simulations that reversibly sample the melting and growth of layers of ice. We computed a total of 19 melting points for five different ice polymorphs, which are in excellent agreement with the melting lines obtained from the integration of the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. For proton-ordered and fully proton-disordered ice phases, the results are in very good agreement with previous calculations based on thermodynamic integration. For the partially proton-disordered ice III, we find a large increase in stability that is in line with previous observations using direct coexistence simulations for the TIP4P/2005 model. This issue highlights the robustness of the approach employed here for ice polymorphs with diverse degrees of proton disorder. Our approach is general and can be applied to the calculation of other complex phase diagrams.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s -1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s -1 . Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Finally, measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of Ethylene Epoxidation over Silver from Machine Learning-Accelerated First-Principles Modeling and Microkinetic Simulations

In this work we employed machine learning-augmented density functional theory (DFT) thermodynamic calculations to assess the stability of different AgO x structures under catalytic ethylene epoxidation reaction conditions. We found that there are multiple AgO x surface motifs that could co-exist under the relevant conditions. These included Ag surface oxides (e.g., AgO_p(4 × 4) and Ag 1.83 O) and atomic oxygen-covered Ag(111) surfaces. Furthermore, we employed DFT calculations to evaluate the energetics of different reaction mechanisms by which ethylene and oxygen can react on these surfaces. These studies revealed several energetically viable reaction pathways for ethylene epoxidation. Microkinetic modeling analyses, based on the DFT-calculated reaction pathways, showed that ethylene epoxidation can proceed on all surfaces and that multiple pathways, including those involving Langmuir–Hinshelwood and Eley–Rideal mechanisms, could be involved in selective and unselective reactions. The diversity of mechanisms that we discovered in the context of the relatively simple ethylene epoxidation reaction on Ag suggests that the richness and complexity of surface chemistry are most likely a rule rather than an exception in heterogeneous catalytic chemical transformations on metal surfaces and that the concept of a single or even a dominant mechanism and reaction intermediates might need to be revisited for many reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generic Photovoltaic Inverter Model in an Electromagnetic Transients Simulator for Transmission Connected Plants

This report proposes a generic model specification of a photovoltaic inverter applied in transmission-connected plants for implementation in an electromagnetic transients simulator. The model specification contains the necessary control loops to meet the fault ride-through performance requirements in the IEEE 2800-2022 standard. The report details the implementation and example parameterization of the model in PSCAD™. Simulation results verify the model meets the performance requirements. Comparisons of the model’s response to laboratory test measurements of a commercial 2.2 MVA storage inverter show the model can reasonably predict the response of commercial equipment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Order Modeling for Accelerating Numerical Simulations (ROMANS)

SAND2021-15064 O ROMANS, or Reduced Order Modeling for Accelerating Numerical Simulations, is an open source software for accelerating numerical simulations. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Martin, Shawn↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residual estimation for grid modification in wall-modeled large eddy simulation using unstructured high-order methods

Here, the accuracy and computational cost of a large eddy simulation are highly dependent on the computational grid. Building optimal grids manually from a priori knowledge is not feasible in most practical use cases; instead, solution-adaptive strategies can provide a robust and cost-efficient method to generate a grid with the desired accuracy. We adapt the residual estimation algorithm developed by Toosi and Larsson for Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements Methods (DGSEM) to guide the grid-adaptation process. The core of the method is the computation of the estimated modeling residual using the polynomial basis functions used in DGSEM, and the averaging of the estimated residual over each element. The final method is assessed in multiple channel flow test cases and for the transonic flow over an airfoil, in both cases making use of mortar interfaces between elements with hanging nodes. The method is found to be robust and reliable, and to provide solutions on grids with significantly fewer elements at comparable accuracy compared to when using human-generated grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

MD Simulation of Water Using a Rigid Body Description Requires a Small Time Step to Ensure Equipartition

In simulations of aqueous systems, it is common to freeze the bond vibration and angle bending modes in water to allow for a longer time step δt for integrating the equations of motion. Thus, δt = 2 fs is often used in simulating rigid models of water. We simulate the SPC/E model of water using δt from 0.5 to 3.0 fs and up to 4 fs using hydrogen mass repartitioning. In these simulations, we find that for all but δt = 0.5 fs, equipartition is not obtained between translational and rotational modes, with the rotational modes exhibiting a lower temperature than the translation modes. To probe the reasons for the lack of equipartition, we study the autocorrelation of the translational velocity of the center of mass and the angular velocity of the rigid water molecule, respectively. Here, we find that the rotational relaxation occurs on a timescale comparable to vibrational periods, calling into question the original motivations for freezing the vibrations. Furthermore, a time step with δt ≥ 1 fs is not able to capture accurately the fast rotational relaxation, which reveals its impact as an effective slowing-down of rotational relaxation. The fluctuation–dissipation relation then leads to the conclusion that the rotational temperature should be cooler for δt greater than the reference value of 0.5 fs. Consideration of fluctuation–dissipation in equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations also emphasizes the need to capture the temporal evolution of fluctuations with fidelity and the role of δt in this regard. The time step also influences the solution thermodynamic properties: both the mean system potential energies and the excess entropy of hydration of a soft repulsive cavity are sensitive to δt.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon lifecycle based on observation and CMIP6

Long-term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) lifecycle since 1979 are analyzed based on observational datasets and historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). According to the observation, the active and break phases of EASM have intensified resulting in a shorter but stronger rainy season, followed by a longer dry spell. This intensification in the active-phase precipitation is accompanied by increased lower tropospheric southwesterly wind and subsequent convergence of water vapor flux. These changes are accompanied by the widely reported westward extension of the North Pacific Subtropical High, which has been associated with the warming climate. CMIP6 models generally underestimated the observed intensification of the EASM lifecycle and the monsoon precipitation. However, some of the models did simulate the intensified EASM lifecycle similar to that observed. The result highlights the reasonable performance on EASM shown in some CMIP6 models and those simulations lend support to a dynamically-driven intensification of the EASM lifecycle in the warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Discrete Event Simulation Approach to Nuclear Arms Enterprise Modeling and Analysis

We overview a discrete event simulation of an arms control enterprise developed to familiarize individuals with the challenges of verification and monitoring at the enterprise level. We will review the design of the simulation applied to a notional country’s nuclear arms enterprise. This simulation models how these nuclear weapons move over their lifetime from deployment, storage, maintenance, and dismantlement. With this output information, we then characterize the “ground truth” of the enterprise. Next, based on these data, we built a sophisticated analysis engine designed to provide treaty monitoring and verification information to support partner country inspectors and their evaluation. This tool was designed to be used as a game, enabling teams to compete on developing the best inspection plan to determine if the host country is complying with the conceptual treaty developed for this effort.

Pulliam, Rachel M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A combined experimental and numerical approach that eliminates the non-uniqueness associated with the Johnson-Cook parameters obtained using inverse methods

Abstract Johnson-Cook constitutive model is a commonly used material model for machining simulations. The model includes five parameters that capture the initial yield stress, strain-hardening, strain-rate hardening, and thermal softening behavior of the material. These parameters are difficult to determine using experiments since the conditions observed during machining (such as high strain-rates of the order of $$10^5$$ 10 5 /sec - $$10^6$$ 10 6 /sec) are challenging to recreate in the laboratory. To address this problem, several researchers have recently proposed inverse approaches where a combination of experiments and analytical models are used to predict the Johnson-Cook parameters. The errors between the measured cutting forces, chip thicknesses and temperatures and those predicted by analytical models are minimized and the parameters are determined. In this work, it is shown that only two of the five Johnson-Cook parameters can be determined uniquely using inverse approaches. Two different algorithms, namely, Adaptive Memory Programming for Global Optimization (AMPGO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are used for this purpose. The extended Oxley’s model is used as the analytical tool for optimization. For determining a parameter’s value, a large range for each parameter is provided as an input to the algorithms. The algorithms converge to several different sets of values for the five Johnson-Cook parameters when all the five parameters are considered as unknown in the optimization algorithm. All of these sets, however, yield the same chip shape and cutting forces in FEM simulations. Further analyses show that only the strain-rate and thermal softening parameters can be determined uniquely and the three parameters present in the strain-hardening term of the Johnson-Cook model cannot be determined uniquely using the inverse method. A combined experimental and numerical approach is proposed to eliminate this determine all parameters uniquely.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of fluid injection-induced fault reactivation using coupled fluid flow and mechanical interface model

The present study is aimed at developing a numerical model to reproduce coupled hydro-mechanical processes associated with fault reactivation by fluid injection in low permeability rock, as part of the DECOVALEX-2019 project Task B. We proposed a modeling approach for simulating the processes using the TOUGH-FLAC simulator, and modeled a fault reactivation experiment conducted at Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The first step of the study involved benchmark calculations considering a simplified fault plane and geometry. Fluid flow along a fault was modeled using elements of aperture-sized thickness on the basis of Darcy's law and the cubic law in TOUGH2, whereas the mechanical behavior of a single fault was represented by zero-thickness interface elements in FLAC3D upon which a slip and/or separation is allowed. A methodology to connect a TOUGH2 volume element to a FLAC3D interface element was developed for handling the hydro-mechanical interactions on the fault during fluid injection. Two different fault models for describing the evolutions of hydraulic aperture by elastic fracture opening and failure-induced aperture increase were considered in the benchmark calculations. In the coupling process, the changes in geometrical features and hydrological properties induced by mechanical deformation were continuously updated. The transient responses of the fault and host rock to stepwise pressurization were examined during the simulation. The hydro-mechanical behavior, including the injection flow rate, pressure distribution around the borehole, stress conditions, and displacements in normal and shear directions were monitored in the surrounding rock and along the fault. The results of benchmark calculations suggest that the developed model reasonably represents the hydro-mechanical behavior of a fault and the surrounding rock. This modeling approach was applied to the fault reactivation experiment of the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. In this interpretive modeling, a parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of input parameters regarding in situ stress and fault properties on the hydro-mechanical responses of the fault to water injection. Then, an optimal parameter set to reproduce the field experiment results was chosen by trial-and-error. The injection flow rate and pressure response during fault reactivation closely matched those obtained at the site, which indicates the capability of the model to appropriately capture the progressive pathway evolution during fault reactivation tests at the site. Finally, the anchor displacements were overestimated by the model, but a fair agreement was obtained in terms of the order of magnitude and the variation tendency.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of thermal hydraulic behavior of the High Temperature Test Facility's lower plenum via large eddy simulation

A high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model for the lower plenum of the High–Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), a ¼ scale test facility of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) managed by Oregon State University. In most next–generation nuclear reactors, thermal stress due to thermal striping is one of the risks to be curiously considered. This is also true for HTGRs, especially since the exhaust helium gas temperature is high. In order to evaluate these risks and performance, organizations in the United States led by the OECD NEA are conducting a thermal hydraulic code benchmark for HTGR, and the test facility used for this benchmark is HTTF. HTTF can perform experiments in both normal and accident situations and provide high-quality experimental data. However, it is difficult to provide sufficient data for benchmarking through experiments, and there is a problem with the reliability of CFD analysis results based on Reynolds–averaged Navier–Stokes to analyze thermal hydraulic behavior without verification. To solve this problem, high-fidelity 3-D CFD analysis was performed using the LES model for HTTF. It was also verified that the LES model can properly simulate this jet mixing phenomenon via a unit cell test that provides experimental information. As a result of CFD analysis, the lower the dependency of the sub-grid scale model, the closer to the actual analysis result. In the case of unit cell test CFD analysis and HTTF CFD analysis, the volume-averaged sub-grid scale model dependency was calculated to be 13.0% and 9.16%, respectively. As a result of HTTF analysis, quantitative data of the fluid inside the HTTF lower plenum was provided in this paper. As a result of qualitative analysis, the temperature was highest at the center of the lower plenum, while the temperature fluctuation was highest near the edge of the lower plenum wall. The power spectral density of temperature was analyzed via fast Fourier transform (FFT) for specific points on the center and side of the lower plenum. FFT results did not reveal specific frequency-dominant temperature fluctuations in the center part. It was confirmed that the temperature power spectral density (PSD) at the top increased from the center to the wake. The vortex was visualized using the well-known scalar Q-criterion, and as a result, the closer to the outlet duct, the greater the influence of the mainstream, so that the inflow jet vortex was dissipated and mixed at the top of the lower plenum. Additionally, FFT analysis was performed on the support structure near the corner of the lower plenum with large temperature fluctuations, and as a result, it was confirmed that the temperature fluctuation of the flow did not have a significant effect near the corner wall. In addition, the vortices generated from the lower plenum to the outlet duct were identified in this paper. It is considered that the quantitative and qualitative results presented in this paper will serve as reference data for the benchmark.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ion Trapping Studies and Mitigation Strategies for the EIC ERL-Based Strong Hadron Cooler

An Energy Recovery Linac based strong hadron cooler was previously considered for the Electron-Ion Collider. The required electron beam parameters for variable-energy strong hadron cooling place significant constraints on ion trapping and collective effects. This paper presents initial studies of these constraints through a combination of analytical modelling and numerical simulations of ion production, trapping behaviour, and mitigation strategies. A multi-bunch tracking framework based on ELEGANT with the ionEffects module is used to simulate machine operation over millisecond time scales, corresponding to more than 3 × 10^5 electron bunches. The simulations include modelling of ionisation processes together with transverse electron–ion dynamics, allowing the evolution and accumulation of ions to be investigated. Analytical expressions based on Gaussian beam distributions are used to estimate ion trapping conditions and benchmark the simulation results. A bi-periodic bunch spacing scheme is also investigated as a possible mitigation method by detuning the ion oscillation frequency. These studies provide an initial assessment of ion trapping in the strong hadron cooler and demonstrate possible approaches for reducing beam–ion effects.

Bi, R. [Lancaster University, Cockcroft Institute]↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Optimization of a Mesoscale Model for Emergency Response

Besides solving the equations of momentum, heat, and moisture transport on the model grid, mesoscale weather models must account for subgrid-scale processes that affect the resolved model variables. These are simulated with model parameterizations, which often rely on values preset by the user. Such “free” model parameters, along with others set to initialize the model, are often poorly constrained, requiring that a user select each from a range of plausible values. Finding the values to optimize any forecasting tool can be accomplished with a search algorithm, and one such process—the genetic algorithm (GA)—has become especially popular. As applied to modeling, GAs represent a Darwinian process: an ensemble of simulations is run with a different set of parameter values for each member, and the members subsequently judged to be most accurate are selected as “parents” who pass their parameters onto a new generation. At the U.S. Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site in South Carolina, we are applying a GA to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale weather model, which supplies input to a model to simulate the dispersion of an airborne contaminant as part of the site’s emergency response preparations. An ensemble of forecasts is run each day, weather data are used to “score” the individual members of the ensemble, and the parameters from the best members are used for the next day’s forecasts. As meteorological conditions change, the parameters change as well, maintaining a model configuration that is best adapted to atmospheric conditions. Significance Statement We wanted to develop a forecasting system by which a weather model is run over the Savannah River Site each day and repeatedly adjusted according to how well it performed the previous day. To run the model, a series of values (parameters) must be set to control how the model will calculate winds, temperatures, and other desired variables. Each day the model was run several times using different combinations of these parameters and later compared with observed meteorological conditions. Parameters that produced the most accurate forecasts were preferentially reused to create the forecasts for the next day. The process was tested for the summer of 2020 and exhibited lower errors than forecasts produced by the model using default values of the parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗