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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

A blast of gas in the latest Paleocene: simulating first-order effects of massive dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate

Carbonate and organic matter deposited during the latest Paleocene thermal maximum is characterized by a remarkable -2.5% excursion in delta 13C that occurred over approximately 10(4) yr and returned to near initial values in an exponential pattern over approximately 2 x 10(5) yr. It has been hypothesized that this excursion signifies transfer of 1.4 to 2.8 x 10(18) g of CH4 from oceanic hydrates to the combined ocean-atmosphere inorganic carbon reservoir. A scenario with 1.12 x 10(18) g of CH4 is numerically simulated here within the framework of the present-day global carbon cycle to test the plausibility of the hypothesis. We find that (1) the delta 13C of the deep ocean, shallow ocean, and atmosphere decreases by -2.3% over 10(4) yr and returns to initial values in an exponential pattern over approximately 2 x 10(5) yr; (2) the depth of the lysocline shoals by up to 400 m over 10(4) yr, and this rise is most pronounced in one ocean region; and (3) global surface temperature increases by approximately 2 degrees C over 10(4) yr and returns to initial values over approximately 2 x 10(6) yr. The first effect is quantitatively consistent with the geologic record; the latter two effects are qualitatively consistent with observations. Thus, significant CH4 release from oceanic hydrates is a plausible explanation for observed carbon cycle perturbations during the thermal maximum. This conclusion is of broad interest because the flux of CH4 invoked during the maximum is of similar magnitude to that released to the atmosphere from present-day anthropogenic CH4 sources.

Non-NASA Center↗

Results of the Simulation and Assimilation of Doppler Wind Lidar Observations in Preparation for European Space Agency's Aeolus Mission

With the launch of the European Space Agency's Aeolus Mission in 2013, direct spaceborne measurements of vertical wind profiles are imminent via Doppler wind lidar technology. Part of the preparedness for such missions is the development of the proper data assimilation methodology for handling such observations. Since no heritage measurements exist in space, the Joint Observing System Simulation Experiment (Joint OSSE) framework has been utilized to generate a realistic proxy dataset as a precursor to flight. These data are being used for the development of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system utilized at a number of centers through the United States including the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) as an activity through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. An update of this ongoing effort will be presented, including the methodology of proxy data generation, the limitations of the proxy data, the handling of line-of-sight wind measurements within the GSI, and the impact on both analyses and forecasts with the addition of the new data type.

McCarty, Will↗

The Simulation and Assimilation of Doppler Wind Lidar Observations in Support of Future Instruments

With the launch of the European Space Agency's Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus) in 2011 and the call for the 3D-Winds mission in National Research Council's decadal survey, direct spaceborne measurements of vertical wind profiles are imminent via Doppler wind lidar technology. Part of the preparedness for such missions is the development of the proper data assimilation methodology for handling such observations. Since no heritage measurements exist in space, the Joint Observing System Simulation Experiment (Joint OSSE) framework is being utilized to generate a realistic proxy dataset as a precursor to flight. These data are being used for the development of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system utilized at a number of centers through the United States including the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP). This effort will be presented, including the methodology of proxy data generation, the handling of line-of-sight wind measurements within the GSI, and the impact on both analyses and forecasts with the addition of the new data type.

McCarty, Will↗

Toward Realistic Simulation of low-Level Clouds Using a Multiscale Modeling Framework With a Third-Order Turbulence Closure in its Cloud-Resolving Model Component

This study presents preliminary results from a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with an advanced third-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model (CRM) component. In the original MMF, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.5) is used as the host general circulation model (GCM), and the System for Atmospheric Modeling with a first-order turbulence closure is used as the CRM for representing cloud processes in each grid box of the GCM. The results of annual and seasonal means and diurnal variability are compared between the modified and original MMFs and the CAM3.5. The global distributions of low-level cloud amounts and precipitation and the amounts of low-level clouds in the subtropics and middle-level clouds in mid-latitude storm track regions in the modified MMF show substantial improvement relative to the original MMF when both are compared to observations. Some improvements can also be seen in the diurnal variability of precipitation.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

Diagnostics↗

Analyzing Machine Learning Predictions of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Spectral Difference Over Snow-Covered Terrain in High Mountain Asia

Snow is an important component of the terrestrial freshwater budget in high mountainAsia (HMA) and contributes to the runoff in Himalayan rivers through snowmelt. Despitethe importance of snow in HMA, considerable spatiotemporal uncertainty exists across the different estimates of snow water equivalent for this region. In order to better estimate snow water equivalent, radiative transfer models are often used in conjunction with microwave brightness temperature measurements. In this study, the efficacy of support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning technique, to predict passive microwave brightness temperature spectral difference (1Tb) as a function of geophysical variables (snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow temperature, and snow density) is explored through a sensitivity analysis. The use of machine learning (as opposed to radiative transfer models) is a relatively new and novel approach for improving snow water equivalent estimates. The Noah-MP land surface model within the NASALand Information System framework is used to simulate the hydrologic cycle over HMA and model geophysical variables that are then used for SVM training. The SVMsserve as a nonlinear map between the geophysical space (modeled in Noah-MP) andthe observation space (1Tb as measured by the radiometer). Advanced MicrowaveScanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System measured passive microwave brightness temperatures over snow-covered locations in the HMA region are used as training data during the SVM training phase. Sensitivity of well-trained SVMs to each Noah-MP modeled state variable is assessed by computing normalized sensitivity coefficients. Sensitivity analysis results generally conform with the known first-order physics. Input states that increase volume scattering of microwave radiation, such as snow density and snow water equivalent, exhibit a plurality of positive normalized sensitivity coefficients. In general, snow temperature was the most sensitive input to the SVM predictions. The sensitivity of each state is location and time dependent. The signs of normalized sensitivity coefficients that indicate physical irrationality are ascribed to significant cross-correlation between Noah-MP simulated states and decreased SVM prediction capability at specific locations due to insufficient training data. SVM prediction pitfalls do exist that serve to highlight the limitations of this particular machine learning algorithm.

high mountain Asia↗

DPLR-NEQAIR Coupler Tutorial

The DPLR-NEQAIR coupler utility provides a framework for running computational simulations of high temperature gases that account for radiative emission and absorption of the gas. This presentation provides an overview of the methodology use to achieve this coupling and an introduction to using the coupling utility itself.

DPLR↗

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗

Is the Global MHD Modeling of the Magnetosphere Adequate for GIC Prediction: the May 27–28, 2017 Storm

Practical steps taken by the international community to reduce the damage to technological systems from space weather include the development of numerical models capable of real-time predictions of electromagnetic disturbances at the Earth’s surface. Here we examine the feasibility of a version of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD simulation code similar to that used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to predict the level of geomagnetic field variability, and consequently geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We consider the contribution of geomagnetic disturbances to the bursts of GIC in the electric power line of the Kola Peninsula during the May 27–28, 2017 storm and compare the observations with results of the global MHD model. During the maximal disturbance magnetic field variations at East Scandinavian stations become more irregular, as intense Pi3 pulsations are superposed on the magnetic bay. These pulsations are not quasi-sinusoidal waves like typical Pc5 pulsations, but they are rather a quasi-periodic sequence of magnetic impulses with time scales ~5–15 min. During this period with elevated Pi3 activity very high values of GIC were recorded (variations >100 A) in the electric power transmission line. The SWMF modeling reasonably well reproduces the global magnetospheric parameters, such as SYM-H index or cross-polar potential. However, the magnetic field variability dB/dt in the East Scandinavia predicted by the modeling has turned out to be more than order of magnitude less than that observed. Thus, the version of SWMF with the grid used by NOAA SWPC still cannot adequately predict for the May 27–28 event the fine structure of the storm/substorm—Pi3 geomagnetic disturbances, and consequently the magnitude of the GIC that they drive.

geomagnetically induced currents↗

Electromagnetics Simulations with Vector-valued Finite Elements in MOOSE

Vector-valued finite elements have become an essential part of modern electromagnetic (EM) numerical simulation. This talk will describe the development and initial validation of a MOOSE-based EM solver application, ELK (Electromagnetics Library for Kinetics and fluids), that utilizes the recently added vector-valued finite element system. The primary motivation for the development of ELK was to study EM wave propagation in radio-frequency (rf) driven systems, such as those encountered in the study of antenna structures, waveguides, and plasma physics. In simulating these scenarios with traditional scalar-valued finite elements, boundary conditions on tangential field components can sometimes be difficult to define, and field discontinuities encountered with certain geometric or structural features (e.g., abrupt corners and inhomogeneous materials) can often lead to non-physical results. Vector-valued elements can largely mitigate and even eliminate these difficulties. ELK verification and validation efforts thus far have focused on standard wave propagation benchmarks for antennas and waveguides, and the impact of vector-valued elements on the implementation and results of these simulations will be described. Progress using ELK for plasma physics simulation, where inhomogeneous simulation domains are commonplace, will also be discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time-Disciplined Non-PLL Active Synchronization for Grid-Forming Inverters: Preprint

Grid Forming Inverters (GFMIs) are a critical component of the future Grid. One major challenge with GFMIs is synchronization. Currently, most research in GFMI synchronization is focused around specific transition types but this is only a subcategory of the possible events facing GFMIs. In this paper, we propose categorizing all possible synchronization events into four categories: (1) Initial Grid Synchronization, (2) Ride-Through, (3) Blackstart Coordination, (4) Grid Reconnection Coordination. By categorizing events, we can better compare and integrate different control strategies under specific test conditions as demonstrated in simulation. This paper’s framework helps guide GFMI primary-level control design to further research towards the 100% inverter-dominant Grid.

blackstart↗

Time Disciplined Non-PLL Active Synchronization for Grid Forming Inverters

Grid forming inverters (GFMIs) are a critical component of the future grid. One major challenge with GFMIs is synchronization. Currently, most research in GFMI synchronization is focused around specific transition types but this is only a subcategory of the possible events facing GFMIs. In this paper, we propose categorizing all possible synchronization events into four categories: (1) initial grid synchronization, (2) ride-through, (3) blackstart coordination, (4) grid reconnection coordination. By categorizing events, we can better compare and integrate different control strategies under specific test conditions as demonstrated in simulation. This paper's framework helps guide GFMI primary-level control design to further research towards the 100% inverter-dominant grid.

blackstart↗

Towards An Updated Simulation of the Booster Neutrino Beam

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux predictions for the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab were first published in 2009 by the MiniBooNE collaboration. It is no longer possible to run the simulation used to create these predictions due to outdated software versions. In this exciting period for the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program at Fermilab, with both the far detector (ICARUS) and the near detector (SBND) operating, an updated flux model for the BNB is necessary. For the purpose of using a dynamic, up-to-date beam model, the SBN program has created a new simulation named G4BNB. This framework contains new features, such as a full neutrino ancestry to handle hadron production systematics with more precision, and the inclusion of neutral mesons from the proton-beryllium scatter to allow the study of exotic BSM scenarios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Petri Nets for Adversarial Models using Monte Carlo Simulation

We describe an object-oriented framework and user interface for developing models of adversarial scenarios, implemented as stochastic Petri nets. The framework is implemented using the statistical computing language R, and provides facilities for eliciting models from subject matter experts, displaying models graphically, simulating scenario execution, and presenting scenario outcomes and statistics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method

Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.

Yang, Jiahui↗

Search for efficient formulations for Hamiltonian simulation of non-Abelian lattice gauge theories

Hamiltonian formulation of lattice gauge theories (LGTs) is the most natural framework for the purpose of quantum simulation, an area of research that is growing with advances in quantum-computing algorithms and hardware. It, therefore, remains an important task to identify the most accurate, while computationally economic, Hamiltonian formulation(s) in such theories, considering the necessary truncation imposed on the Hilbert space of gauge bosons with any finite computing resources. This paper is a first step toward addressing this question in the case of non-Abelian LGTs, which further require the imposition of non-Abelian Gauss’s laws on the Hilbert space, introducing additional computational complexity. Focusing on the case of SU(2) LGT in 1+1 dimensions coupled to one flavor of fermionic matter, a number of different formulations of the original Kogut-Susskind framework are analyzed with regard to the dependence of the dimension of the physical Hilbert space on boundary conditions, system’s size, and the cutoff on the excitations of gauge bosons. The impact of such dependencies on the accuracy of the spectrum and dynamics obtained from a Hamiltonian computation is examined, and the (classical) computational-resource requirements given these considerations are studied. Besides the well-known angular-momentum formulation of the theory, the cases of purely fermionic and purely bosonic formulations (with open boundary conditions), and the Loop-String-Hadron formulation are analyzed, along with a brief discussion of a Quantum-Link-Model formulation of the same theory. Clear advantages are found in working with the Loop-String-Hadron framework which implements non-Abelian Gauss’s laws a priori using a complete set of gauge-invariant operators. Although small lattices are studied in the numerical analysis of this work, and only the simplest algorithms are considered, a range of conclusions will be applicable to larger systems and potentially to higher dimensions. Future studies will extend this investigation to the analysis of resource requirements for quantum simulations of non-Abelian LGT, with the goal of shedding light on the most efficient Hamiltonian formulation of gauge theories of relevance in nature

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Structure and dynamics of aqueous solutions from PBE-based first-principles molecular dynamics simulations

Establishing an accurate and predictive computational framework for the description of complex aqueous solutions is an ongoing challenge for density functional theory based first-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulations. In this context, important advances have been made in recent years, including the development of sophisticated exchange-correlation functionals. On the other hand, simulations based on simple generalized gradient approximation (GGA) functionals remain an active field, particularly in the study of complex aqueous solutions due to a good balance between the accuracy, computational expense, and the applicability to a wide range of systems. In such simulations we often perform them at elevated temperatures to artificially “correct” for GGA inaccuracies in the description of liquid water; however, a detailed understanding of how the choice of temperature affects the structure and dynamics of other components, such as solvated ions, is largely unknown. In order to address this question, we carried out a series of FPMD simulations at temperatures ranging from 300 to 460 K for liquid water and three representative aqueous solutions containing solvated Na + , K + , and Cl - ions. We show that simulations at 390–400 K with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) exchange-correlation functional yield water structure and dynamics in good agreement with experiments at ambient conditions. Simultaneously, this computational setup provides ion solvation structures and ion effects on water dynamics consistent with experiments. These results suggest that an elevated temperature around 390–400 K with the PBE functional can be used for the description of structural and dynamical properties of liquid water and complex solutions with solvated ions at ambient conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗