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At least 1,693 records · Page 94
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM Biases Improves Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections

Polarization surrounding bias correction (BC) in creating climate projections arises from its lack of physicality. Here, we perform and analyze 18 dynamical downscaling simulations (with and without BC) to better understand the physical impacts of BC, applied before downscaling, on regional climate output across the western United States. Without BC, downscaled precipitation is systematically and unrealistically wet biased compared to a hierarchy of observationally based datasets over the 1980–2014 period due to cascading mean–state Global Climate Model (GCM) biases: (a) overly strong lower–tropospheric lapse rates (5 K/km), (b) overly cold (2 K) tropospheric temperatures, and (c) anomalous mid–tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection. With BC, downscaled precipitation (snow) biases are virtually eliminated (halved). Identified GCM biases are common to the broader Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Physical effects of BC on the quality of the regionalized projections, pending an evaluation of BC's distortion of the downscaled climate response, may motivate its broader application by dynamical downscalers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2025

“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs

Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America

Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December–January–February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5–10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to be less pronounced in southern SA. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are more striking, particularly in tropical areas where half or more of the days could be extremely warm by midcentury.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent evolutions in the LTDP CDF project

In the latest years, CNAF (the national center of the Italian Institute for Nuclear Physics INFN dedicated to Research and Development on Information and Communication Technologies) has been working on the Long Term Data Preservation (LTDP) project for the CDF experiment, active at Fermilab from 1990 to 2011. The main aims of the project are to protect the most relevant part of the CDF RUN-2 data collected between 2001 and 2011 and already stored on tape at CNAF (4 PB), as well as to ensure the availability and the access to the analysis facility to those data over time. Lately, the CDF database, hosting information about CDF datasets such as their structure, file locations and metadata, has been imported from Fermilab to CNAF. Also, the Sequential Access via Metadata (SAM) station data handling tool for CDF data management, that allows to manage data transfers and to retrieve information from the CDF database, has been properly installed and configured at CNAF. This was a fundamental step in the perspective of a complete decommissioning of CDF services on Fermilab side. An access system has been designed and tested to submit CDF analysis jobs, using CDF software distributed via CERN Virtual Machine File System (CVMFS) and requesting delivery of CDF files stored on CNAF tapes, as well as data present only on Fermilab storage archive. Moreover, the availability and the correctness of all CDF data stored on CNAF tapes has been verified. This paper describes all these recent evolutions in detail, presenting the future plans for the LTDP project at CNAF.

Fornari, Federico↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Princess Project: From Differential to Integral Experiments

Following the shutdown of the CEA Valduc experimental facilities, where, for more than 50 years, IRSN used to perform experiments related to criticality safety, IRSN initiated a new project named PRINCESS (PRoject for IRSN Neutron physics and Criticality Experimental data Supporting Safety). The objective is to continue collecting experimental data necessary for the IRSN missions in nuclear safety. For this purpose, collaborations with various national and international laboratories have been established. The PRINCESS project covers various nuclear physics fields from nuclear data to criticality-safety and reactor physics providing information to both differential and integral data improvements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Multi-component symmetry-projected approach for molecular ground state correlations

The symmetry-projected Hartree–Fock ansatz for the electronic structure problem can efficiently account for static correlation in molecules, yet it is often unable to describe dynamic correlation in a balanced manner. Here, we consider a multi-component, systematically improvable approach, that accounts for all ground state correlations. Our approach is based on linear combinations of symmetry-projected configurations built out of a set of non-orthogonal, variationally optimized determinants. The resulting wavefunction preserves the symmetries of the original Hamiltonian even though it is written as a superposition of deformed (broken-symmetry) determinants. We show how short expansions of this kind can provide a very accurate description of the electronic structure of simple chemical systems such as the nitrogen and the water molecules, along the entire dissociation profile. In addition, we apply this multi-component symmetry-projected approach to provide an accurate interconversion profile among the peroxo and bis(μ-oxo) forms of [Cu{sub 2}O{sub 2}]{sup 2+}, comparable to other state-of-the-art quantum chemical methods.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spin projection with double hybrid density functional theory

A spin projected double-hybrid density functional theory is presented that accounts for different scaling of opposite and same spin terms in the second order correction. This method is applied to three dissociation reactions which in the unprojected formalism exhibit significant spin contamination with higher spin states. This gives rise to a distorted potential surface and can lead to poor geometries and energies. The projected method presented is shown to improve the description of the potential over unprojected double hybrid density functional theory. Comparison is made with the reference states of the two double hybrid functionals considered here (B2PLYP and mPW2PLYP) in which the projected potential surface is degraded by an imbalance in the description of dynamic and static correlation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Study of ultrasonic characterization and propagation in austenitic welds: The MOSAICS project

Regulatory requirements enforce a volumetric inspection of welded components of nuclear equipments. However, the multi-pass austenitic welds are characterized by anisotropic and heterogeneous structures which lead to numerous disturbances of the ultrasonic beam. The MOSAICS project supported by the ANR (French National Research Agency) aims at matching various approaches to improve the prediction of the ultrasonic testing in those welds. The first stage consists in characterizing the weld structure (determination of the columnar grain orientation and measurements of elastic constants and attenuation coefficients). The techniques of characterization provide input data for the modeling codes developed in another task of the project. For example, a 3D version of the finite elements code ATHENA is developed by EDF R and D to take into account anisotropic texture in any direction. Semi-analytical models included in CIVA software are also improved to better predict the ultrasonic propagation in highly anisotropic and heterogeneous structures. The last stage deals with modeling codes validation based on experimental inspections on representative mock-ups containing calibrated defects. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the MOSAICS project and to present specific results illustrating the various tasks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Forward problem solution as the operator of filtered and back projection matrix to reconstruct the various method of data collection and the object element model in electrical impedance tomography

Back projection reconstruction has been implemented to get the dynamical image in electrical impedance tomography. However the implementation is still limited in method of adjacent data collection and circular object element model. The study aims to develop the methods of back projection as reconstruction method that has the high speed, accuracy, and flexibility, which can be used for various methods of data collection and model of the object element. The proposed method uses the forward problem solution as the operator of filtered and back projection matrix. This is done through a simulation study on several methods of data collection and various models of the object element. The results indicate that the developed method is capable of producing images, fastly and accurately for reconstruction of the various methods of data collection and models of the object element.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

A projection-free method for representing plane-wave DFT results in an atom-centered basis

Plane wave density functional theory (DFT) is a powerful tool for gaining accurate, atomic level insight into bulk and surface structures. Yet, the delocalized nature of the plane wave basis set hinders the application of many powerful post-computation analysis approaches, many of which rely on localized atom-centered basis sets. Traditionally, this gap has been bridged via projection-based techniques from a plane wave to atom-centered basis. We instead propose an alternative projection-free approach utilizing direct calculation of matrix elements of the converged plane wave DFT Hamiltonian in an atom-centered basis. This projection-free approach yields a number of compelling advantages, including strict orthonormality of the resulting bands without artificial band mixing and access to the Hamiltonian matrix elements, while faithfully preserving the underlying DFT band structure. The resulting atomic orbital representation of the Kohn-Sham wavefunction and Hamiltonian provides a gateway to a wide variety of analysis approaches. We demonstrate the utility of the approach for a diverse set of chemical systems and example analysis approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Projected Hartree-Fock theory as a polynomial of particle-hole excitations and its combination with variational coupled cluster theory

Projected Hartree-Fock theory provides an accurate description of many kinds of strong correlations but does not properly describe weakly correlated systems. Coupled cluster theory, in contrast, does the opposite. It therefore seems natural to combine the two so as to describe both strong and weak correlations with high accuracy in a relatively black-box manner. Combining the two approaches, however, is made more difficult by the fact that the two techniques are formulated very differently. In earlier work, we showed how to write spin-projected Hartree-Fock in a coupled-cluster-like language. Here in this work, we fill in the gaps in that earlier work. Further, we combine projected Hartree-Fock and coupled cluster theory in a variational formulation and show how the combination performs for the description of the Hubbard Hamiltonian and for several small molecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Polynomial-product states: A symmetry-projection-based factorization of the full coupled cluster wavefunction in terms of polynomials of double excitations

Our goal is to remedy the failure of symmetry-adapted coupled-cluster theory in the presence of strong correlation. Previous work along these lines has taken us from a diagram-level analysis of the coupled-cluster equations to an understanding of the collective modes which can occur in various channels of the coupled-cluster equations to the exploration of non-exponential wavefunctions in efforts to combine coupled-cluster theory with symmetry projection. In this manuscript, we extend these efforts by introducing a new, polynomial product wavefunction ansatz that incorporates information from symmetry projection into standard coupled-cluster theory in a way that attempts to mitigate the effects of the lack of size extensivity and size consistency characteristic of symmetry-projected methods. Finally, we describe the new approach in detail within the context of our previous efforts, explore some illustrative calculations, and consider one route for reducing the computational cost of the new method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Huzinaga projection embedding for efficient and accurate energies of systems with localized spin-densities

We demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the restricted open-shell and unrestricted formulation of the absolutely localized Huzinaga projection operator embedding method. Restricted open-shell and unrestricted Huzinaga projection embedding in the full system basis is formally exact to restricted open-shell and unrestricted Kohn–Sham density functional theory, respectively. By utilizing the absolutely localized basis, we significantly improve the efficiency of the method while maintaining high accuracy. Furthermore, the absolutely localized basis allows for high accuracy open-shell wave function methods to be embedded into a closed-shell density functional theory environment. The open-shell embedding method is shown to calculate electronic energies of a variety of systems to within 1 kcal/mol accuracy of the full system wave function result. For certain highly localized reactions, such as spin transition energies on transition metals, we find that very few atoms are necessary to include in the wave function region in order to achieve the desired accuracy. This extension further broadens the applicability of our absolutely localized Huzinaga level-shift projection operator method to include open-shell species. Here, we apply our method to several representative examples, such as spin splitting energies, catalysis on transition metals, and radical reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symmetry-projected cluster mean-field theory applied to spin systems

We introduce S z spin-projection based on cluster mean-field theory and apply it to the ground state of strongly correlated spin systems. In cluster mean-fields, the ground state wavefunction is written as a factorized tensor product of optimized cluster states. In previous work, we have focused on unrestricted cluster mean-field, where each cluster is S z symmetry adapted. We here remove this restriction by introducing a generalized cluster mean-field (GcMF) theory, where each cluster is allowed to access all S z sectors, breaking S z symmetry. In addition, a projection scheme is used to restore global S z , which gives rise to the S z spin-projected generalized cluster mean-field (S z GcMF). Both of these extensions contribute to accounting for inter-cluster correlations. We benchmark these methods on the 1D, quasi-2D, and 2D J 1 – J 2 and XXZ Heisenberg models. Furthermore, our results indicate that the new methods (GcMF and S z GcMF) provide a qualitative and semi-quantitative description of the Heisenberg lattices in the regimes considered, suggesting them as useful references for further inter-cluster correlations, which are discussed in this work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗