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NASA NTRS1978

Modulation of the Jovian emission below 8 MHz

RAE-1 data on Jovian decametric emission between 1 and 8 MHz are analyzed to investigate modulation of the emission with respect to the rotation phase of the planet and Io phase as well as a possible variation with flux density of the rotation-phase and Io-phase control below 8 MHz. Attention is given to the observing interval, identification of Jovian emission, orbital-phase constraint, and calculated emission occurrence probabilities. Five frequencies are selected for the analysis (6550, 4700, 3930, 2200, and 1310 kHz), and System III coordinates are used to illustrate the rotation-phase behavior. The spectral distribution of peak flux density is examined along with the overall occurrence probability, the individual modulations, theoretical implications of invariance of active Io phases, and possible modulation by Europa. The results show that Io exerts a suprisingly high degree of control at the low frequencies, that rotation-phase control is only marginal, and that the manner in which Io control is found to vary with flux density is consistent with previous findings at higher frequencies.

Desch, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coupling of volatile transport and internal heat flow on Triton

Recently Brown et al. (1991) showed that Triton's internal heat source could amount to 5-20% of the absorbed insolation on Triton, thus significantly affecting volatile transport and atmospheric pressure. Subsequently, Kirk and Brown (1991a) used simple analytical models of the effect of internal heat on the distribution of volatiles on Triton's surface, confirming the speculation of Brown et al. that Triton's internal heat flow could strongly couple to the surface volatile distribution. To further explore this idea, we present numerical models of the permanent distribution of nitrogen ice on Triton that include the effects of sunlight, the two-dimensional distribution of internal heat flow, the coupling of internal heat flow to the surface distribution of nitrogen ice, and the finite viscosity of nitrogen ice. From these models we conclude that: (1) The strong vertical thermal gradient induced in Triton's polar caps by internal heat-flow facilitates viscous spreading to lower latitudes, thus opposing the poleward transport of volatiles by sunlight, and, for plausible viscosities and nitrogen inventories, producing permanent caps of considerable latitudinal extent; (2) It is probable that there is a strong coupling between the surface distribution of nitrogen ice on Triton and internal heat flow; (3) Asymmetries in the spatial distribution of Triton's heat flow, possibly driven by large-scale, volcanic activity or convection in Triton's interior, can result in permanent polar caps of unequal latitudinal extent, including the case of only one permanent polar cap; (4) Melting at the base of a permanent polar cap on Triton caused by internal heat flow can significantly enhance viscous spreading, and, as an alternative to the solid-state greenhouse mechanism proposed by Brown et al. (1990), could provide the necessary energy, fluids, and/or gases to drive Triton's geyser-like plumes; (5) The atmospheric collapse predicted to occur on Triton in the next 20 years (Spencer, 1990) may be plausibly avoided because of the large latitudinal extent expected for permanent polar caps on Triton.

Brown, Robert H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Early-time measure in eternal inflation

In a situation like eternal inflation, where our data is replicated at infinitely-many other space-time events, it is necessary to make a prior assumption about our location to extract predictions. The principle of mediocrity entails that we live at asymptotic late times, when the occupational probabilities of vacua has settled to a near-equilibrium distribution. In this paper we further develop the idea that we instead exist during the approach to equilibrium, much earlier than the exponentially-long mixing time. In this case we are most likely to reside in vacua that are easily accessed dynamically. Using first-passage statistics, we prove that vacua that maximize their space-time volume at early times have: 1. maximal ever-hitting probability; 2. minimal mean first-passage time; and 3. minimal decay rate. These requirements are succinctly captured by an early-time measure. The idea that we live at early times is a predictive guiding principle, with many phenomenological implications. First, our vacuum should lie deep in a funneled region, akin to folding energy landscapes of proteins. Second, optimal landscape regions are characterized by relatively short-lived vacua, with lifetime of order the de Sitter Page time. For our vacuum, this lifetime is ~ 10 130 years, which is consistent with the Standard Model estimate due to Higgs metastability. Third, the measure favors vacua with small, positive vacuum energy. This can address the cosmological constant problem, provided there are sufficiently many vacua in the entire ensemble of funnels. As a concrete example, we study the Bousso-Polchinski lattice of flux vacua, and find that the early-time measure favors lattices with the fewest number of flux dimensions. This favors compactifications with a large hierarchy between the lightest modulus and all other Kähler and complex structure moduli.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Acquisition and Early Losses of Rare Gases from the Deep Earth

Direct observations show that the deep Earth contains rare gases of solar composition distinct from those in the atmosphere. We examine the implications of mantle rare gas characteristics on acquisition of rare gases from the solar nebula and subsequent losses due to a large impact. Deep mantle rare gas concentrations and isotopic compositions can be obtained from a model of transport and distribution of mantle rare gases. This model assumes the lower mantle closed early, while the upper mantle is open to subduction from the atmosphere and mass transfer from the lower mantle. Constraints are derived that can be incorporated into models for terrestrial volatile acquisition: (1) Calculated lower-mantle Xe-isotopic ratios indicate that the fraction of radiogenic Xe produced by I-129 and Pu-244 during the first about 10(exp 8) yr was lost, a conclusion also drawn for atmospheric Xe. Thus, either the Earth was made from materials that had lost >99% of rare gases about (0.7-2) x 10(exp 8) yr after the solar system formed, or gases were then lost from the fully formed Earth. (2) Concentrations of 3He and 20Ne in the lower mantle were established after these losses. (3) Neon-isotopic data indicates that mantle Ne has solar composition. The model allows for solar Ar/Ne and Xe/Ne in the lower mantle if a dominant fraction of upper mantle Ar and Xe are subduction-derived. If Earth formed in the presence of the solar nebula, it could have been melted by accretional energy and the blanketing effect of a massive, nebula-derived atmosphere. Gases from this atmosphere would have been sequestered within the molten Earth by dissolution at the surface and downward mixing. It was found that too much Ne would be dissolved in the Earth unless the atmosphere began to escape when the Earth was only partially assembled. Here we consider conditions required to initially dissolve sufficient rare gases to account for the present lower mantle concentrations after subsequent losses at 10(exp 8) yr. It is assumed that equilibration of the atmosphere with a thoroughly molten mantle was rapid, so that initial abundances of gases retained in any mantle layer reflected surface conditions when the layer solidified. For subsequent gas loss of 99.5% and typical solubility coefficients, a total pressure of 100 atm was required for an atmosphere of solar composition. Calculations of the pressure at the base of a primordial atmosphere indicate that this value might be exceeded by an order of magnitude or more for an atmosphere supported by accretional energy. Surface temperatures of about 4000 K would have been produced, probably high enough to melt the deep mantle. Initial distributions of retained rare gases would then be determined by the history of surface pressure and temperature during mantle cooling and solidification, i.e., the coupled cooling of Earth and atmosphere. The Earth's thermal state was determined by its surface temperature and the efficiency of convection in the molten mantle, estimated to be sufficient to maintain an adiabatic gradient. Because the melting curve is steeper than the adiabat, solidification of the mantle proceeded outward from the interior. Incorporation of atmospheric gases in the mantle therefore occurred over a range in surface temperature of a few thousand degrees Kelvin. The thermal state of the atmosphere was controlled by total luminosity of the Earth (energy) released by accreting planetesimals and the cooling Earth), nebular temperature and pressure, and atmospheric opacity. The energy released by accretion declined with time as did nebular pressure. Analytical solutions for an idealized (constant opacity radiative atmosphere show that declining energy sources under constant nebular conditions result in slowly diminishing surface temperature but dramatically increasing surface pressure. For such an atmosphere with declining nebular pressure but constant total luminosity, surface pressure decreases gradually with decreasing temperaure. A decline in accretion luminosity might be compensated by energy released as the mantle cools for about 10(exp 5) year, after which luminosity must decline. The total complement of dissolved rare gases will depend on the particular evolutionary path determined by the declining accretional luminosity, the Earth thermal history, removal of the nebula, and opacity variations of the atmosphere. Models for these coupled evolutionary histories for Earth's acquisition of nebular-derived noble gases are in progress. The later losses required at about 10(exp 8) yr (depleting the interior concentrations of the sequestered solar gases by a factor of > 100) were presumably related to the major impact in which the Moon formed.

Porcelli, D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

On the distribution of computation for sequential decoding using the stack algorithm

A method is developed for estimating the computational distribution for the stack algorithm for sequential decoding, that is, the probability that the computation required to decode the first branch of the tree is greater than or equal to N, for small N. The analysis relies heavily on the theory of multitype branching processes. A step in the analysis is the determination of the distribution of the minimum of the cumulative metrics along the transmitted path in the code tree. This is used to obtain the distribution of the number of computations made by the decoder in order to decode the first branch in the tree, and this random variable serves as an approximation of the average number of computations per decoded branch. At information rates below the cutoff rate, the calculated computational performance is virtually identical to that obtained by time-consuming simulations.

Johannesson, R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Antitropical distribution and evolution in the Indo-West Pacific Ocean

Antitropical distributions of continental shelf, Indo-West Pacific species are probably not due to transgression of the tropics during the glacial periods, isothermic submergence, island integration, rising Neogene temperatures, or the Mesozoic dispersal of fragments from a Pacific continental mass. Characteristics of common antitropical patterns, plus information from systematic works on a variety on a variety of animal and plant groups, indicate that the long discarded "relict theory" of Theel (1885) appears to best fit the evidence, for it provides a mechanism whereby antitropical distribution may be brought about. The relict theory is compatible with the concept that the East Indies part of the Indo-West Pacific has been functioning as a center of evolutionary origin. It suggests that antitropical and associated disjunct patterns are produced as an older species, that has spread out to occupy a broad range, loses ground and gradually becomes supplanted by a younger species that had subsequently evolved in the East Indies. As this process goes on, the older species becomes restricted to a few isolated localities on the fringe of its original range. These isolates are often found to the north and south of the equatorial region but may include relict populations at the western edge of the Indian Ocean.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploration of a Potential Desirability of Outcome Ranking Endpoint for Complicated Intra-Abdominal Infections Using 9 Registrational Trials for Antibacterial Drugs

Abstract Background Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is a novel approach to clinical trial design that incorporates safety and efficacy assessments into an ordinal ranking system to evaluate overall outcomes of clinical trial participants. Here, we derived and applied a disease-specific DOOR endpoint to registrational trials for complicated intra-abdominal infection (cIAI). Methods Initially, we applied an a priori DOOR prototype to electronic patient-level data from 9 phase 3 noninferiority trials for cIAI submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration between 2005 and 2019. We derived a cIAI-specific DOOR endpoint based on clinically meaningful events that trial participants experienced. Next, we applied the cIAI-specific DOOR endpoint to the same datasets and, for each trial, estimated the probability that a participant assigned to the study treatment would have a more desirable DOOR or component outcome than if assigned to the comparator. Results Three key findings informed the cIAI-specific DOOR endpoint: (1) a significant proportion of participants underwent additional surgical procedures related to their baseline infection; (2) infectious complications of cIAI were diverse; and (3) participants with worse outcomes experienced more infectious complications, more serious adverse events, and underwent more procedures. DOOR distributions between treatment arms were similar in all trials. DOOR probability estimates ranged from 47.4% to 50.3% and were not significantly different. Component analyses depicted risk-benefit assessments of study treatment versus comparator. Conclusions We designed and evaluated a potential DOOR endpoint for cIAI trials to further characterize overall clinical experiences of participants. Similar data-driven approaches can be utilized to create other infectious disease–specific DOOR endpoints.

Immunology↗
NASA NTRS1992

On the decoder error probability of block codes

By using coding and combinational techniques, an explicit formula is derived which enumerates the complete weight distribution of decodable words of block codes using partially known weight distributions. Also an approximation formula for nonbinary block codes is obtained. These results in turn give exact and approximate expressions for the decoder error probability PE(u) of block codes.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗
NASA NTRS1986

Ultraviolet spectrophotometry of three LINERs

Three galaxies known to be LINERs were observed spectroscopically in the ultraviolet in an attempt to detect the presumed nonthermal continuum source thought to be the source of photoionization in the nuclei. NGC 4501 was found to be too faint for study with the IUE spectrographs, while NGC 5005 had an extended ultraviolet light profile. Comparison with the optical light profile of NGC 5005 indicates that the ultraviolet source is distributed spatially in the same manner as the optical starlight, probably indicating that the ultraviolet excess is due to a component of hot stars in the nucleus. These stars contribute detectable absorption features longward of 2500 A; together with optical data, the IUE spectra suggest a burst of star formation about 1 billion yr ago, with a lower rate continuing to produce a few OB stars. In NGC 4579, a point source contributing most of the ultraviolet excess is found that is much different than the optical light distribution. Furthermore, the ultraviolet to X-ray spectral index in NGC 4579 is 1.4, compatible with the UV to X-ray indices found for samples of Seyfert galaxies. This provides compelling evidence for the detection of the photoionizing continuum in NGC 4579 and draws the research fields of normal galaxies and active galactic nuclei closer together. The emission-line spectrum of NGC 4579 is compared with calculations from a photoionization code, CLOUDY, and several shock models. The photoionization code is found to give superior results, adding to the increasing weight of evidence that the LINER phenomenon is essentially a scaled-down version of the Seyfert phenomenon.

Goodrich, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probability-matched reflectivity-rainfall relations for a hurricane from aircraft observations

The relation between the distribution of equivalent reflectivity, Z(sub e), measured by an airborne C-band radar and that for rain rate, R, measured concurrently by a disdrometer on the same aircraft in the eyewall and outer bands of Hurricane Anita (1977) was investigated using the probability-matching method (PMM). It was found that the pdf of R is much narrower in the outer rainbands of Hurricane Anita than in the eyewall, and that the mean rain rates are also much smaller. It is shown that the use of PMM provides more realistic relations than the conventional power-law Z-R regression relations based upon scatter-plots of disdrometer measurements, showing higher eyewall reflectivities for the same rain rates at rates in excess of 6.3 mm/h.

Marks, Frank D., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Peatland Microtopography Using Gradient and Microform-Based Approaches

Abstract Peatlands represent an important component of the global carbon cycle, storing 180–621 Gt of carbon (C). Small-scale spatial variations in elevation, frequently referred to as microtopography, influence ecological processes associated with the peatland C cycle, including Sphagnum photosynthesis and methane flux. Microtopography can be characterized with measures of topographic variability and by using conceptual classes (microforms) linked to function: most commonly hummocks and hollows. However, the criteria used to define these conceptual classes are often poorly described, if at all, and vary between studies. Such inconsistencies compel development of explicit quantitative methods to classify microforms. Furthermore, gradient-based characterizations that describe spatial variability without the use of microforms are lacking in the literature. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to (1) calculate peatland microtopographical elevation gradients and measures of spatial variability, (2) develop three microform classification methods intended for specific purposes, and (3) evaluate and contrast classification methods. Our results suggest that at spatial scales much larger than microforms, elevation distributions are unimodal and are well approximated with parametric probability density functions. Results from classifications were variable between methods and years and exhibited significant differences in mean hollow areal coverages of a raised ombrotrophic bog. Our results suggest that the conceptualization and classification of microforms can significantly influence microtopographic structural metrics. The three explicit methods for microform classification described here may be used and built upon for future applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effect of choosing the Q{sub α}-values and daughter density distributions on the magic numbers predicted by α decays

We investigated the effects of choosing the α-decay energy (Q{sub α}) and particular density distributions of the daughter nuclei on predicting unknown magic numbers, or confirming some of them. The Q{sub α} values were calculated using three models, namely the finite-range droplet model (FRDM), the Weizsäcker–Skyrme (WS4) mass model, and a recent fitting formula. The α-decay half-lives (T{sub α}) of superheavy nuclei of Z = 118–124 have been calculated within the generalized density-dependent cluster model. The double-folding α+core potential was determined based on the M3Y-Reid nucleon–nucleon interaction. We have used the two-parameter Fermi distribution to represent the nuclear density, with four sets of parameters that were determined based on electron scattering data and different microscopic calculations. Upon investigating the relative stability of the mentioned superheavy isotopic chains, we found that the Q{sub α}-values deduced from FRDM and WS4 models predict different neutron magic numbers. The examined fitting formula failed to predict any magic number larger than N = 162. Under normalization to the proton and neutron (N) numbers, the different choices of the density distributions showed almost no effect on the general behavior of T{sub α} with N, but changed its values up to one order of magnitude. Even though the maxima and minima of T{sub α} clearly follow the characteristic minima and maxima of Q{sub α}, respectively, the results showed that precise density distribution and deformations, in addition to a correct preformation probability, are necessarily required for estimating an accurate value of the half-life.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

LeptonInjector and LeptonWeighter: A neutrino event generator and weighter for neutrino observatories

In this work, we present a high-energy neutrino event generator, called LeptonInjector, alongside an event weighter, called LeptonWeighter. Both are designed for large-volume Cherenkov neutrino telescopes such as IceCube. The neutrino event generator allows for quick and flexible simulation of neutrino events within and around the detector volume, and implements the leading Standard Model neutrino interaction processes relevant for neutrino observatories: neutrino-nucleon deep-inelastic scattering and neutrino-electron annihilation. In this paper, we discuss the event generation algorithm, the weighting algorithm, and the main functions of the publicly available code, with examples. Program summary: Program Titles: LeptonInjector and LeptonWeighter CPC Library link to program files: https://doi.org/10.17632/662gkpjfd9.1 Developer's repository links: https://github.com/icecube/LeptonInjector and https://github.com/icecube/LeptonWeighter Licensing provisions: GNU Lesser General Public License, version 3. Programming Language: C++11 External Routines: • Boost • HDF5 • nuflux (https://github.com/icecube/nuflux) • nuSQuIDS (https://github.com/arguelles/nuSQuIDS) • Photospline (https://github.com/icecube/photospline) • SuiteSparse (https://github.com/DrTimothyAldenDavis/SuiteSparse) Nature of problem: LeptonInjector: Generate neutrino interaction events of all possible topologies and energies throughout and around a detector volume. LeptonWeighter: Reweight Monte Carlo events, generated by a set of LeptonInjector Generators, to any desired physical neutrino flux or cross section. Solution method: LeptonInjector: Projected ranges of generated leptons and the extent of the detector, in terms of column depth, are used to inject events in and around the detector volume. Event kinematics follow distributions provided in cross section files. LeptonWeighter: Event generation probabilities are calculated for each Generator, which are then combined into a generation weight and used to calculate an overall event weight.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds

Although a variety of climate datasets are now available, including observational and model products, there remains a pressing need for the development of a unified, automated and application-focused approach for evaluating and comparing climate extremes within and across these datasets. Precipitation frequency (PF) es- timates for extreme precipitation events are useful decision-relevant quantities among water managers. Our objective and quantitative framework for computing PF estimates of any duration uses known techniques in a novel combination. Our framework consists of three steps: (1) use of a regionalization-based statistical method for precipitation frequency estimation at observed sites; this involves hierarchical clustering (here we used Ward’s method) for delineating homogeneous regions, and regional frequency analysis using L-moments; (2) use of kriging for spatial mapping because of its advantages over other conventional interpolation methods; (3) use of z-scores accounts for estimation uncertainties when comparing PF estimates between datasets. The 24-h PF estimates in the Kissimmee-Southern Florida watershed (flat topography) and the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed (complex topography) demonstrate the applicability of this approach in regions of any geographical complexity. Our results are shown to be reasonably calibrated using the probability integral transform (PIT) histogram of the best fitted distribution. Our results are compared with that of the NOAA Atlas 14 reports and show that for most of the stations the two estimates are statistically indistinguishable; and, the confidence intervals of our estimates are narrower than those of the NOAA estimates. Our approach is applicable to a variety of datasets and provides a baseline for assessing performance of climate models in historical simulations – a necessary first step towards analyzing future projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of tectonic processes on biosphere–geosphere feedbacks across a convergent margin

The subsurface is among Earth’s largest biomes, but the extent to which microbial communities vary across tectonic plate boundaries or interact with subduction-scale geological processes remains unknown. Here we compare bacterial community composition with deep-subsurface geochemistry from 21 hot springs across the Costa Rican convergent margin. We find that cation and anion compositions of the springs reflect the dip angle and position of the underlying tectonic structure and also correlate with the bacterial community. Co-occurring microbial cliques related to cultured chemolithoautotrophs that use the reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle (rTCA) as well as abundances of metagenomic rTCA genes correlate with concentrations of slab-volatilized carbon. This, combined with carbon isotope evidence, suggests that fixation of slab-derived CO2 into biomass may support a chemolithoautotrophy-based subsurface ecosystem. We calculate that this forearc subsurface biosphere could sequester 1.4 × 10 9 to 1.4 × 10 10 mol of carbon per year, which would decrease estimates of the total carbon delivered to the mantle by 2 to 22%. Furthermore, based on the observed correlations, we suggest that distribution and composition of the subsurface bacterial community are probably affected by deep tectonic processes across the Costa Rican convergent margin and that, by sequestering carbon volatilized during subduction, these chemolithoautotrophic communities could in turn impact the geosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast and efficient identification of anomalous galaxy spectra with neural density estimation

ABSTRACT Current large-scale astrophysical experiments produce unprecedented amounts of rich and diverse data. This creates a growing need for fast and flexible automated data inspection methods. Deep learning algorithms can capture and pick up subtle variations in rich data sets and are fast to apply once trained. Here, we study the applicability of an unsupervised and probabilistic deep learning framework, the probabilistic auto-encoder, to the detection of peculiar objects in galaxy spectra from the SDSS survey. Different to supervised algorithms, this algorithm is not trained to detect a specific feature or type of anomaly, instead it learns the complex and diverse distribution of galaxy spectra from training data and identifies outliers with respect to the learned distribution. We find that the algorithm assigns consistently lower probabilities (higher anomaly score) to spectra that exhibit unusual features. For example, the majority of outliers among quiescent galaxies are E+A galaxies, whose spectra combine features from old and young stellar population. Other identified outliers include LINERs, supernovae, and overlapping objects. Conditional modelling further allows us to incorporate additional information. Namely, we evaluate the probability of an object being anomalous given a certain spectral class, but other information such as metrics of data quality or estimated redshift could be incorporated as well. We make our code publicly available.

Böhm, Vanessa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized approach for rapid entropy calculation of liquids and solids

We build a comprehensive methodology for the fast computation of entropy across both solid and liquid phases. The proposed method utilizes a single trajectory of molecular dynamics (MD) to facilitate the calculation of entropy, which is composed of three components. The electronic entropy is determined through the temporal average acquired from density functional theory MD simulations. The vibrational entropy, typically the predominant contributor to the total entropy, even within the liquid state, is evaluated by computing the phonon density of states via the velocity autocorrelation function. The most arduous component to quantify, the configurational entropy, is assessed by probability analysis of the local structural arrangement and atomic distribution. We illustrate, through a variety of examples, that this method is both a versatile and valid technique for characterizing the thermodynamic states of both solids and liquids. Furthermore, this method is employed to expedite the calculation of melting temperatures, demonstrating its practical utility in computational thermodynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust VAR Capability Curve of DER with Uncertain Renewable Generation

Active distribution system with high penetration of inverter based distributed energy resources(DER), can be utilized for var-related ancillary services at the transmission side interface. In order to utilize the DER flexibility, transmission system operator must be presented the aggregated DER flexibility of distribution system. However, the uncertainty in renewable generation, questions the credibility of aggregated capability curve in practice. In this paper, we incorporate the uncertainty into aggregation process to develop capability curve while preserving the real physics (unbalance and lossy nature) of distribution system. The Resulting capability curve with the associated probability can be harnessed by the TSO for decision making for both planning and operation.

Kar, Aditya Shankar↗