Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,693 records · Page 94
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Ground cloud effluent measurements during the May 30, 1974, Titan 3 launch at the Air Force eastern test range

Surface-level exhaust effluent measurements of HCl, CO, and particulates, ground-cloud behavior, and some comparisons with model predictions for the launch of a Titan 3 rocket are presented along with a limited amount of airborne sampling measurements of other cloud species (O3, NO, NOX). Values above background levels for these effluents were obtained at 20 of the 30 instrument sites; these values were lower than model predictions and did not exceed public health standards. Cloud rise rate, stabilization altitude, and volume are compared with results from previous launches.

Bendura, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Validation of PICA Ablation and Thermal-Response Model at Low Heat Flux

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) was the forebody heatshield material on the Stardust sample-return capsule and is also a primary candidate material for the Mars Science Lander (MSL), the Orion Crew Module, and the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. As part of the heatshield qualification for Orion, physical and thermal properties of virgin and charred PICA were measured, and an ablation and thermal response model was developed. We validated the model by comparing it with recession and temperature data from stagnation arcjet tests conducted over a wide range of stagnation heat flux of 107 to 1102 W/sq cm. The effect of orthotropic thermal conductivity was evident in the thermal response of the arcjet models. In general, model predictions compared well with the data; however, the uncertainty of the recession prediction was greatest for heat fluxes below 200 W/sq cm. More recent MSL testing focused on the low heat flux regime of 45 to 250 W/sq cm. The new results confirm the recession uncertainty, especially for pressures below 6 kPa. In this work we focus on improving the model predictions for MSL and Orion tests below 250 W/sq cm.

Milos, Frank S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Potential New Lidar Observations for Cloud Studies

The response of clouds to global warming represents a major uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. These uncertainties have been tracked to shallow marine clouds in the tropics and subtropics. CALIOP observations have already been used extensively to evaluate model predictions of shallow cloud fraction and top height (Leahy et al. 2013; Nam et al 2012). Tools are needed to probe the lowest levels of the troposphere. The large footprint of satellite lidars gives large multiple scattering from clouds which presents new possibilities for cloud retrievals to constrain model predictions.

Winker, Dave↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of inclusive and differential Higgs boson production cross sections at $\sqrt{\text{s}} = 13.6$ TeV in the H → γγ decay channel

Inclusive and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV are measured using data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34.7 fb −1 . Events with the diphoton final state are selected, and the measured inclusive fiducial cross section is ${\sigma }_{\text{fid}}={74}\pm {11}{\left({\text{stat}}\right)}_{-4}^{+5}\left({\text{syst}}\right)$ fb, in agreement with the standard model prediction of 67.8 ± 3.8 fb. Differential cross sections are measured as functions of several observables: the Higgs boson transverse momentum and rapidity, the number of associated jets, and the transverse momentum of the leading jet in the event. Within the uncertainties, the differential cross sections agree with the standard model predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of predictive performance models for supersonic gas-jet nozzles at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics

We present results characterizing the neutral-density distributions produced by the supersonic nozzles used in experiments on the OMEGA-60 and OMEGA-EP laser systems at the University of Rochester’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE). Axisymmetric Fluent® simulations using LLE nozzle specifications capture the viscous effects, gas expansion, and shock waves that complicate flow predictions for offsets above the nozzle exit. Here, these simulations show good agreement with neutral-density measurements obtained using a four-wave shearing interferometer. An analytical form is given for the plateau length. Fits to simulation data for boundary layer thickness, mean plateau density, and density ramps are given as functions of nozzle offset and nozzle backing pressure for a number of nozzles and gases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of differential cross sections and charge ratios for t -channel single top quark production in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\,\text {Te}\text {V}$

A measurement is presented of differential cross sections for t-channel single top quark and antiquark production in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13$\,\text {Te}\text {V}$ by the CMS experiment at the LHC. From a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9$\,\text {fb}^{-1}$, events containing one muon or electron and two or three jets are analysed. The cross section is measured as a function of the top quark transverse momentum ($p_{\mathrm{T}} $), rapidity, and polarisation angle, the charged lepton $p_{\mathrm{T}} $ and rapidity, and the $p_{\mathrm{T}} $ of the $\text {W}{}{}$ boson from the top quark decay. In addition, the charge ratio is measured differentially as a function of the top quark, charged lepton, and $\text {W}{}{}$ boson kinematic observables. The results are found to be in agreement with standard model predictions using various next-to-leading-order event generators and sets of parton distribution functions. Additionally, the spin asymmetry, sensitive to the top quark polarisation, is determined from the differential distribution of the polarisation angle at parton level to be $0.440 \pm 0.070$, in agreement with the standard model prediction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

EMISApproximateEquilibrium.jl [SWR-19-56]

The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Approximate Equilibrium (EMIS-AE) package is developed at NREL and provides a solution capability to solve generation expansion equilibrium problems in the electricity markets. EMIS-AE is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy and market designs. The investment problem for each generation company (GENCO) is a bi-level problem with the investment decision made in the upper level and market clearing condition in the lower level, which traditionally is represented as a Mathematical Program with Equilibrium Constraint (MPEC). EMIS-AE provides a predictive model to be trained for estimating the system-wide revenues for each technology type across energy, ancillary services and capacity markets given the amount of installed capacity on the grid. The profit maximization investment problem for each GENCO is solved using a global search algorithm, which uses the predictive model to evaluate the objective function. To solve for the strategic equilibrium, each GENCO’s problem is plugged into a diagonalization algorithm that is generally used in multi-leader, single-follower bi-level problems.

Dalvi, Sourabh↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital twin framework for PIP-II linac: AI-driven multi-scale modeling from ion source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Set-up for the Study of Chemical Fractionation and Aerosol Dynamics

Experimental investigations of chemical fractionation/phase partition and aerosol dynamics in high-temperature environment were reviewed and discussed. Particle composition and size distribution are the key data for aerosol dynamics predictive model and simulation. However, there were no particle size distribution available from the previous works. Nucleation, condensation, and coagulation are three key physical processes driving the fractionation or phase partition thereby the aerosol dynamics. A new approach was proposed to experimentally observe fractionation/phase partition and provide data for validating the predictive model for aerosol dynamics in the simulation of bomb debris formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Performance of a Spectral Wave Model at Predicting Wave Farm Impacts

For renewable ocean wave energy to support global energy demands, wave energy converters (WECs) will likely be deployed in large numbers (farms), which will necessarily change the nearshore environment. Wave farm induced changes can be both helpful (e.g., beneficial habitat and coastal protection) and potentially harmful (e.g., degraded habitat, recreational, and commercial use) to existing users of the coastal environment. It is essential to estimate this impact through modeling prior to the development of a farm, and to that end, many researchers have used spectral wave models, such as Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to assess wave farm impacts. However, the validity of the approaches used within SWAN have not been thoroughly verified or validated. Herein, a version of SWAN, called Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)-SWAN, which has a specialized WEC implementation, is verified by comparing its wave field outputs to those of linear wave interaction theory (LWIT), where LWIT is theoretically more appropriate for modeling wave-body interactions and wave field effects. The focus is on medium-sized arrays of 27 WECs, wave periods, and directional spreading representative of likely conditions, as well as the impact on the nearshore. A quantitative metric, the Mean Squared Skill Score, is used. Results show that the performance of SNL-SWAN as compared to LWIT is “Good” to “Excellent”.

environmental impacts↗
NASA NTRS1977

The development of a model for predicting passenger acceptance of short-haul air transportation systems

Meaningful criteria and methodology for assessing, particularly in the area of ride quality, the potential acceptability to the traveling public of present and future transportation systems were investigated. Ride quality was found to be one of the important variables affecting the decision of users of air transportation, and to be influenced by several environmental factors, especially motion, noise, pressure, temperature, and seating. Models were developed to quantify the relationship of subjective comfort to all of these parameters and then were exercised for a variety of situations. Passenger satisfaction was found to be strongly related to ride quality and was so modeled. A computer program was developed to assess the comfort and satisfaction levels of passengers on aircraft subjected to arbitrary flight profiles over arbitrary terrain. A model was deduced of the manner in which passengers integrate isolated segments of a flight to obtain an overall trip comfort rating. A method was established for assessing the influence of other links (e.g., access, terminal conditions) in the overall passenger trip.

Kuhlthau, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Spectra and angular distributions of atmospheric gamma rays from 0.3 to 10 MeV at lambda = 40 deg

Measurements of the spectral and angular distributions of atmospheric gamma sq cm rays in the energy range 0.3-10 MeV over Palestine, Texas, at residual depths of 2.5 and 70 g/sq cm are reported. In confirmation of the general features of a model prediction, the measurements show at 2.5 g/sq cm upward moving fluxes greater than the downward moving fluxes, the effect increasing with energy, and approximate isotropy at 70 g/sq cm. Numerous characteristic gamma-ray lines were observed, most prominently at 0.511, 1.6, 2.3, 4.4, and 6.1 MeV. Their intensities were also compared with model predictions. Observations were made with an actively shielded scintillator counter with two detectors, one of aperture 50 deg FWHM and the other of 120 deg FWHM. Above 1 MeV, contributions to the counting rate from photons penetrating the shield annulus and from neutron interactions were large; they were studied by means of a Monte Carlo code and are extensively discussed.

Ling, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Stardust Sample Collection at Wild 2 and Its Preliminary Examination

The primary objective of STARDUST is to collect coma samples from 81P/Wild 2. This was made on January 2, 2004. Before the encounter three significant model predictions existed for the number and size of samples to be captured. Three investigations during the Wild 2 encounter (Dust Flux Monitor, Comet and Interstellar Dust Analyzer and Dynamic Science) made in situ measurements of the dust. Spectacular images were captured of the Wild 2 nucleus and dust jets. This abstract compares the model predictions with the in situ measurements and Wild 2 images and assesses the likely samples to be returned for analysis on January 15, 2006. To give some lead time for sample analysts to prepare for the analyses of the returned samples, the organization of the Preliminary Examination is presented.

Tsou, P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and interpretations of W ± Z production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of integrated and differential cross-sections for W ± Z production in proton-proton collisions are presented. The data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The W ± Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons or muons. The integrated cross-section per lepton flavour for the production of W ± Z is measured in the detector fiducial region with a relative precision of 4%. The measured value is compared with the Standard Model prediction at a precision of up to next-to-next-to-leading-order in QCD and next-to-leading-order in electroweak. Cross-sections for W + Z and W − Z production and their ratio are presented. The W ± Z production is also measured differentially as functions of various kinematic variables, including new observables sensitive to CP-violation effects. All measurements are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model predictions from fixed-order calculations or Monte Carlo generators based on next-to-leading-order matrix elements interfaced with parton showers. An effective field theory interpretation of the measurements is performed, considering both CP-conserving and CP-violating dimension-6 operators modifying the W ± Z production. In the absence of observed deviations from the Standard Model, limits on CP-conserving Wilson coefficients are extracted using the transverse mass of the W ± Z system. For CP-violating coefficients a machine learning approach is used to construct an observable with enhanced sensitivity to CP-violation effects.

hadron-hadron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling from the combination of single and double Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

The Higgs boson (H) trilinear self-coupling, λ 3 , is constrained via its measured properties and limits on the HH pair production using the proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV . The combination of event categories enriched in single-H and HH events is used to measure κ λ , defined as the value of λ 3 normalized to its standard model prediction, while simultaneously constraining the Higgs boson couplings to fermions and vector bosons. Values of κ λ outside the interval -1.2 < κ λ < 7.5 are excluded at 2σ confidence level, which is compatible with the expected range of -2.0 < κ λ < 7.7 under the assumption that all other Higgs boson couplings are equal to their standard model predicted values. Relaxing the assumption on the Higgs couplings to fermions and vector bosons the observed (expected) κ λ interval is constrained to be within -1.4 < κ λ < 7.8 (-2.3 < κ λ < 7.8) at 2σ confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗