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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

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DOE OSTI2016

A simple method for simulating wind profiles in the boundary layer of tropical cyclones

A method to simulate characteristics of wind speed in the boundary layer of tropical cyclones in an idealized manner is developed and evaluated. The method can be used in a single-column modelling set-up with a planetary boundary-layer parametrization, or within large-eddy simulations (LES). The key step is to include terms in the horizontal velocity equations representing advection and centrifugal acceleration in tropical cyclones that occurs on scales larger than the domain size. Compared to other recently developed methods, which require two input parameters (a reference wind speed, and radius from the centre of a tropical cyclone) this new method also requires a third input parameter: the radial gradient of reference wind speed. With the new method, simulated wind profiles are similar to composite profiles from dropsonde observations; in contrast, a classic Ekman-type method tends to overpredict inflow-layer depth and magnitude, and two recently developed methods for tropical cyclone environments tend to overpredict near-surface wind speed. When used in LES, the new technique produces vertical profiles of total turbulent stress and estimated eddy viscosity that are similar to values determined from low-level aircraft flights in tropical cyclones. Lastly, temporal spectra from LES produce an inertial subrange for frequencies ≳0.1 Hz, but only when the horizontal grid spacing ≲20 m.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1975

Asynoptic meteorological data assimilation by means of a time coordinate transformation

A possible method for assimilating large quantities of asynoptic data, such as satellite observations, into numerical weather forecasts, is investigated. The method is based on a transformation of the time coordinate to coincide with satellite paths, and a well-posed problem is solved in order to obtain forecasts beyond the time of data acquisition. Simulated barotropic forecasts based on the proposed technique are compared with forecasts derived from the direct insertion of data. Results indicate that only in ideal situations, when asynoptic data are obtained both continuosly and accurately, will the method function well as compared with direct insertion techniques.

Halberstam, I.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanets using Cross-correlations and Supervised Machine Learning

We present a new method for performing atmospheric retrieval on ground-based, high-resolution data of exoplanets. Our method combines cross-correlation functions with a random forest, a supervised machine-learning technique, to overcome challenges associated with high-resolution data. A series of cross-correlation functions are concatenated to give a “CCF-sequence” for each model atmosphere, which reduces the dimensionality by a factor of ∼100. The random forest, trained on our grid of ∼65,000 models, provides a likelihood-free method of retrieval. The precomputed grid spans 31 values of both temperature and metallicity, and incorporates a realistic noise model. We apply our method to HARPS-N observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b and obtain a metallicity consistent with solar (logM = − 0.2 ± 0.2). Our retrieved transit chord temperature (T=6000{sub −200}{sup +0}K) is unreliable as strong ion lines lie outside of the extent of the training set, which we interpret as being indicative of missing physics in our atmospheric model. We compare our method to traditional nested sampling, as well as other machine-learning techniques, such as Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that the likelihood-free aspect of the random forest makes it more robust than nested sampling to different error distributions, and that the Bayesian neural network we tested is unable to reproduce complex posteriors. We also address the claim in Cobb et al. 2019 that our random forest retrieval technique can be overconfident but incorrect. We show that this is an artifact of the training set, rather than of the machine-learning method, and that the posteriors agree with those obtained using nested sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Survey of Eight Hot Jupiters in Secondary Eclipse Using WIRCam at CFHT

We present near-infrared high-precision photometry for eight transiting hot Jupiters observed during their predicted secondary eclipses. Our observations were carried out using the staring mode of the WIRCam instrument on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT).We present the observing strategies and data reduction methods which delivered time series photometry with statistical photometric precision as low as 0.11 percent. We performed a Bayesian analysis to model the eclipse parameters and systematics simultaneously. The measured planet-to-star flux ratios allowed us to constrain the thermal emission from the day side of these hot Jupiters, as we derived the planet brightness temperatures. Our results combined with previously observed eclipses reveal an excess in the brightness temperatures relative to the blackbody prediction for the equilibrium temperatures of the planets for a wide range of heat redistribution factors. We find a trend that this excess appears to be larger for planets with lower equilibrium temperatures. This may imply some additional sources of radiation, such as reflected light from the host star and/or thermal emission from residual internal heat from the formation of the planet.

Bayesian Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2014

The SAGES Legacy Unifying Globulars and Galaxies survey (SLUGGS): sample definition, methods, and initial results

We introduce and provide the scientific motivation for a wide-field photometric and spectroscopic chemodynamical survey of nearby early-type galaxies (ETGs) and their globular cluster (GC) systems. The SAGES Legacy Unifying Globulars and GalaxieS (SLUGGS) survey is being carried out primarily with Subaru/Suprime-Cam and Keck/DEIMOS. The former provides deep gri imaging over a 900 arcmin{sup 2} field-of-view to characterize GC and host galaxy colors and spatial distributions, and to identify spectroscopic targets. The NIR Ca II triplet provides GC line-of-sight velocities and metallicities out to typically ∼8 R {sub e}, and to ∼15 R {sub e} in some cases. New techniques to extract integrated stellar kinematics and metallicities to large radii (∼2-3 R {sub e}) are used in concert with GC data to create two-dimensional (2D) velocity and metallicity maps for comparison with simulations of galaxy formation. The advantages of SLUGGS compared with other, complementary, 2D-chemodynamical surveys are its superior velocity resolution, radial extent, and multiple halo tracers. We describe the sample of 25 nearby ETGs, the selection criteria for galaxies and GCs, the observing strategies, the data reduction techniques, and modeling methods. The survey observations are nearly complete and more than 30 papers have so far been published using SLUGGS data. Here we summarize some initial results, including signatures of two-phase galaxy assembly, evidence for GC metallicity bimodality, and a novel framework for the formation of extended star clusters and ultracompact dwarfs. An integrated overview of current chemodynamical constraints on GC systems points to separate, in situ formation modes at high redshifts for metal-poor and metal-rich GCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

SPITZER, GAIA, AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE MILKY WAY

Near-future data from ESA's Gaia mission will provide precise, full phase-space information for hundreds of millions of stars out to heliocentric distances of ∼10 kpc. This ''horizon'' for full phase-space measurements is imposed by the Gaia parallax errors degrading to worse than 10%, and could be significantly extended by an accurate distance indicator. Recent work has demonstrated how Spitzer observations of RR Lyrae stars can be used to make distance estimates accurate to 2%, effectively extending the Gaia, precise-data horizon by a factor of 10 in distance and a factor of 1000 in volume. This Letter presents one approach to exploit data of such accuracy to measure the Galactic potential using small samples of stars associated with debris from satellite destruction. The method is tested with synthetic observations of 100 stars from the end point of a simulation of satellite destruction: the shape, orientation, and depth of the potential used in the simulation are recovered to within a few percent. The success of this simple test with such a small sample in a single debris stream suggests that constraints from multiple streams could be combined to examine the Galaxy's dark matter halo in even more detail—a truly unique opportunity that is enabled by the combination of Spitzer and Gaia with our intimate perspective on our own Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

NASA NTRS1976

Hectometric and kilometric solar radio emission observed from satellites in August 1972

Type II, type III, and continuum solar radio events, as well as intense terrestrial magnetospheric radio emissions, were observed at low frequencies (10 MHz to 30 kHz) by the IMP-6 satellite during the period of high solar activity in August 1972. This review covers briefly the unique direction-finding capability of the experiment, a detailed chronology of the low-frequency radio events, and, where possible, their association with both ground-based radio observations and solar flares. The attempted observation of solar bursts in the presence of intense magnetospheric noise may, as illustrated, lead to erroneous results in the absence of directional information. The problem of assigning an electron-density scale and its influence on determining burst trajectories is reviewed. However, for the disturbed conditions existing during the period in question, it is felt that such trajectories cannot be determined accurately by this method. The capabilities, limitations, and observing programs of present and future satellite experiments are briefly discussed.

Malitson, H. H.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic compaction of nickel powder examined by x-ray phase contrast imaging

Understanding the shock response of porous, granular materials is important for many scientific applications. In this work, a propagation-based x-ray phase contrast imaging technique was used to examine the shock compaction response of Ni powder (particle size: 30 and 45 µm), encapsulated in PMMA cylinders, in situ and in real time. The propagating shock wave in the PMMA cylinder and the deformation of the Ni powder column were recorded, but the compaction wave in the Ni powder could not be observed due to insufficient penetration of x-ray photons through the sample. The overall shape of the deformed Ni column downstream of the PMMA shock looked qualitatively similar for both particle sizes: it deformed inward and then outward similar to a converging-diverging nozzle, followed by a ‘mushroom’-like structure at the impact face. A preliminary analysis of our data using shock-polar method provided insight into the observed shock and flow deflection angles at the PMMA/Ni interface, and permitted evaluation of the Ni powder EOS used in this work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2013

Heterogeneous Formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds- Part 1: Nucleation of Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT)

Satellite-based observations during the Arctic winter of 2009/2010 provide firm evidence that, in contrast to the current understanding, the nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) in the polar stratosphere does not only occur on preexisting ice particles. In order to explain the NAT clouds observed over the Arctic in mid-December 2009, a heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is required, occurring via immersion freezing on the surface of solid particles, likely of meteoritic origin. For the first time, a detailed microphysical modelling of this NAT formation pathway has been carried out. Heterogeneous NAT formation was calculated along more than sixty thousand trajectories, ending at Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observation points. Comparing the optical properties of the modelled NAT with these observations enabled a thorough validation of a newly developed NAT nucleation parameterisation, which has been built into the Zurich Optical and Microphysical box Model (ZOMM). The parameterisation is based on active site theory, is simple to implement in models and provides substantial advantages over previous approaches which involved a constant rate of NAT nucleation in a given volume of air. It is shown that the new method is capable of reproducing observed polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) very well, despite the varied conditions experienced by air parcels travelling along the different trajectories. In a companion paper, ZOMM is applied to a later period of the winter, when ice PSCs are also present, and it is shown that the observed PSCs are also represented extremely well under these conditions.

Hoyle, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Estimates for Lorentz factors of gamma-ray bursts from early optical afterglow observations

The peak time of optical afterglow may be used as a proxy to constrain the Lorentz factor Γ of the gamma-ray burst (GRB) ejecta. We revisit this method by including bursts with optical observations that started when the afterglow flux was already decaying; these bursts can provide useful lower limits on Γ. Combining all analyzed bursts in our sample, we find that the previously reported correlation between Γ and the burst luminosity L {sub γ} does not hold. However, the data clearly show a lower bound Γ{sub min} that increases with L {sub γ}. We suggest an explanation for this feature: explosions with large jet luminosities and Γ < Γ{sub min} suffer strong adiabatic cooling before their radiation is released at the photosphere; they produce weak bursts, barely detectable with present instruments. To test this explanation, we examine the effect of adiabatic cooling on the GRB location in the L {sub γ} – Γ plane using a Monte Carlo simulation of the GRB population. Our results predict detectable on-axis 'orphan' afterglows. We also derive upper limits on the density of the ambient medium that decelerates the explosion ejecta. We find that the density in many cases is smaller than expected for stellar winds from normal Wolf-Rayet progenitors. The burst progenitors may be peculiar massive stars with weaker winds, or there might exist a mechanism that reduces the stellar wind a few years before the explosion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Acoustic emission Bayesian source location: Onset time challenge

Robust identification of the most accurate observed input data among a pool of observations is key in modeling and decision making. A statistically biased observed measurement deteriorates the predictive power of a model and affects decision-making ability based on the prediction of the model. When two competing methods of measurement are available, such as methods which identify arrival times in acoustic emission (AE) signals, a principal question is whether one of the two obtained datasets, or a combination of the two, should be used later on, for example, to localize an AE source. This question becomes more important when collecting not repeatable data such as AE signals created by a propagating crack. Here this paper considers an inverse source location problem in a concrete block to address the mentioned issue, a proposed methodology which also has wider application in competitive data selection. Elastic energy released by an AE event, such as a propagating crack, is recorded by acoustic emission data acquisition system. The onset time of AE signals is often used to locate the source of the event, and its accuracy directly affects the precision of source identification. This research proposes an innovative approach to select the most probable onset time obtained from two automatic picker methods. The proposed method selects the most probable onset times, which are observed by each picker for each sensor, in a probabilistic fashion. To validate the proposed method, the most accurate onset time observed by each picker is identified by visual inspection and is compared with the one is selected by the proposed method. Finally, the dataset is used for source location identification. Results show that picked onset times determined by the proposed method generate more accurate source identification when compared with coordinates obtained using each dataset individually.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1994

A new method for determining the Hubble constant from sub-TeV gamma-ray observations

The present uncertainty in the Hubble constant leaves unresolved questions regarding the age of the universe and related matters involving the amount and nature of the dark matter in the universe, consistency with the inflationary model of the universe, and the need for a cosmological constant. It is clear that a significantly precise determination of the Hubble constant by as many different methods as possible is crucial to our knowledge and understanding of the character of the universe. We propose here an entirely new method for determining the Hubble constant, based on measuring the extinction of high-energy gamma-rays emitted by detectable gamma-ray emitting blazars at various redshifts.

Salamon, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Middle Atmosphere Transport Properties of Assimilated Datasets

One of the most compelling reasons for performing data assimilation in the middle atmosphere is to obtain global, balanced datasets for studies of trace gas transport and chemistry. This is a major motivation behind the Goddard Earth observation System-Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS). Previous studies have shown that while this and other data assimilation systems can generally obtain good estimates of the extratropical rotational velocity field, the divergent part of the dynamical field is deficient; this impacts the "residual circulation" and leads to spurious trace gas transport on seasonal and interannual timescales. These problems are impacted by the quality and the method of use of the observational data and by deficiencies in the atmospheric general circulation model. Whichever the cause at any place and time, the "solution" is to introduce non-physical forcing terms into the system (the so-called incremental analysis updates); these can directly (thermal) or indirectly (mechanical) affect the residual circulation. This paper will illustrate how the divergent circulation is affected by deficiencies in both observations and models. Theoretical considerations will be illustrated with examples from the GEOS-DAS and from simplified numerical experiments. These are designed to isolate known problems, such as the inability of models to sustain a quasi-biennial oscillation and sparse observational constraints on tropical dynamics, or radiative inconsistencies in the presence of volcanic aerosols.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS1999

Middle Atmospheric Transport Properties of Assimilated Datasets

Pawson, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2022

KilonovaNet : Surrogate models of kilonova spectra with conditional variational autoencoders

ABSTRACT Detailed radiative transfer simulations of kilonova spectra play an essential role in multimessenger astrophysics. Using the simulation results in parameter inference studies requires building a surrogate model from the simulation outputs to use in algorithms requiring sampling. In this work, we present kilonovanet, an implementation of conditional variational autoencoders (cVAEs) for the construction of surrogate models of kilonova spectra. This method can be trained on spectra directly, removing overhead time of pre-processing spectra, and greatly speeds up parameter inference time. We build surrogate models of three state-of-the-art kilonova simulation data sets and present in-depth surrogate error evaluation methods, which can in general be applied to any surrogate construction method. By creating synthetic photometric observations from the spectral surrogate, we perform parameter inference for the observed light-curve data of GW170817 and compare the results with previous analyses. Given the speed with which kilonovanet performs during parameter inference, it will serve as a useful tool in future gravitational wave observing runs to quickly analyse potential kilonova candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2002

Tropospheric Ozone during the TRACE-P Mission: Comparison between TOMS Satellite Retrievals and Aircraft Lidar Data, March 2001

Over the past several years, we have developed two new tropospheric ozone retrievals from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite instrument that are of sufficient resolution to follow pollution episodes. The modified-residual technique uses v. 7 TOMS total ozone and is applicable to tropical regimes in which the wave-one pattern in total ozone is observed. The TOMS-direct method ('TDOT' = TOMS Direct Ozone in the Troposphere) represents a new algorithm that uses TOMS radiances directly to extract tropospheric ozone in regions of constant stratospheric ozone. It is not geographically restricted, using meteorological regimes as the basis for classifying TOMS radiances and for selecting appropriate comparison data. TDOT is useful where tropospheric ozone displays high mixing ratios and variability characteristic of pollution. Some of these episodes were observed downwind of Asian biomass burning during the TRACE-P (Transport and Atmospheric Chemical Evolution-Pacific) field experiment in March 2001. This paper features comparisons among TDOT tropospheric ozone column depth, integrated uv-DIAL measurements made from NASA's DC-8, and ozonesonde data.

Frolov, A. D.↗