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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

The comet rendezvous asteroid flyby mission

The Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) mission is designed to answer the many questions raised by the Halley missions by exploring a cometary nucleus in detail, following it around its orbit and studying its changing activity as it moves closer to and then away from the Sun. In addition, on its way to rendezvous with the comet, CRAF will fly by a large, primitive class main belt asteroid and will return valuable data for comparison with the comet results. The selected asteroid is 449 Hamburga with a diameter of 88 km and a surface composition of carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. The expected flyby date is January, 1998. The CRAF spacecraft will continue to make measurements in orbit around the cometary nucleus as they both move closer to the Sun, until the dust and gas hazard becomes unsafe. At that point the spacecraft will move in and out between 50 and 2,500 kilometers to study the inner coma and the cometary ionosphere, and to collect dust and gas samples for onboard analysis. Following perihelion, the spacecraft will make a 50,000 km excursion down the comet's tail, further investigating the solar wind interaction with the cometary atmosphere. The spacecraft will return to the vicinity of the nucleus about four months after perihelion to observe the changes that have taken place. If the spacecraft remains healthy and adequate fuel is still onboard, an extended mission to follow the comet nucleus out to aphelion is anticipated.

Morrison, David↗

A program to measure new energetic particle nuclear interaction cross sections

The Transport Collaboration, consisting of researchers from institutions in France, Germany, Italy, and the USA, has established a program to make new measurements of nuclear interaction cross sections for heavy projectiles (Z greater than or equal to 2) in targets of liquid H2, He and heavier materials. Such cross sections directly affect calculations of galactic and solar cosmic ray transport through matter and are needed for accurate radiation hazard assessment. To date, the collaboration has obtained data using the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Bevalac HISS facility with 20 projectiles from He-4 to Ni-58 in the energy range 393-910 MeV/nucleon. Preliminary results from the analysis of these data are presented here and compared to other measurements and to cross section prediction formulae.

Guzik, T. G.↗

(abstract) Mount Rainier: New Remote Sensing Observations of a Decade Volcano

Mount Rainier was selected as a Decade Volcano by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior. The purpose of this selection is to focus scientific and public attention on Mount Rainier during the current decade, the United Nations-designated International Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction. The Mount Rainier science plan calls for remote sensing surveys to monitor the volcano. To date, we have conducted airborne surveys with visible and near-infrared, thermal infrared, and interferometric radar instruments. Our preliminary analysis of some night-time time-series thermal infrared survey data sets of the summit suggests that, aside from seasonal variations in snow cover, there have been no qualitative changes in the size or pattern of the summit hot spots. Day-time airborne surveys were done to record the current surface appearance of the volcano and map hydrothermal alteration in the summit region. An interferometric radar survey yielded a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) which serves as a base for the registration of the other remote sensing data sets. More importantly, the DEM documents the current topography of glaciers and valleys. Planned biannual radar survey of mount rainier will produce a data set from which seasonal changes in glacier and valley topography can be characterized. Such characterization is essential if we are to recognize geothermally induced changes in snow and ice cover.

infrared radar interferometry glaciers seasonal va↗

Mathematical Model for Evaluating the Technical Condition and Predicting Collapse of Protective Barriers on Flooded Radiation-Hazardous Sites

The possible consequences of flooding of nuclear and radiation-hazardous sites and objects should be included among the environmental risks arising during the rapid development of the infrastructure in the Arctic. A mathematical model, algorithms, and software codes for evaluating the condition and predicting the collapse of the protective barriers, and determining the emission rate of radionuclides and the possible radioactive contamination of the environment, including long-term prediction and situation analysis, have been developed. The software codes have been accepted into the government registry at Rospatent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Radical Hysterectomy Versus Simple Hysterectomy on Survival of Patients with Stage 2 Endometrial Cancer: A Meta-analysis

Background: The strategy of radical surgery for stage 2 endometrial cancer (EC) remains controversial. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the impact of radical hysterectomy (RH) versus simple hysterectomy (SH) on survival of patients with stage 2 EC. Methods: A systematic review was conducted to identify studies comparing survival between RH and SH in International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage 2 EC patients by searching several databases to July 2018. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall survival and progression-free survival were pooled using Stata V.12.0. Results: The study included 10 retrospective cohort studies enrolling 2866 patients. Patients who received RH did not show a significant survival benefit for either overall survival (pooled HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.72–1.16; P = 0.484) or progression-free survival (pooled HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.39–1.42; P = 0.378). The result remained consistent after it was balanced with possible impact from adjuvant radiotherapy (pooled HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.62–1.16; P = 0.300). In earlier studies that staged patients according to FIGO 1988, RH showed a 27% survival benefit (pooled HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.53–1.00; P = 0.050), whereas in newly published studies based on FIGO 2009 staging, it reversely showed increased risk of death (pooled HR 1.24; 95% CI 0.86–1.77; P = 0.245). However, no statistical significance was reached under either staging criterion. Conclusions: Based on the results of this meta-analysis, RH does not significantly improve survival in stage 2 EC. The choice of RH remains controversial and should be considered carefully in clinical practice. More qualified studies are needed to determine the best treatment strategy for stage 2 EC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Demonstration of Coupled Multievent Scenario at a Subject Nuclear Power Plant

This report discusses how to perform a coupled, seismic and flooding, multievent risk-informed analysis. Presented in the following sections are the need for multievent risk-informed analysis, the tools needed to perform the analysis, and an example of solving a demonstration problem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

THE COMBINATION OF ACTIVE AND PASSIVE SHIELDING

I is conceivable that improved shielding of space vehicles against high-energy charged-particle radiation can be obtained by combining active and passive shielding. Methods of shielding calculations and some preliminary observations pertaining to active-passive shielding are given. An analysis based upon the field of a magnetic dipole indicates that weight savings in bulk shielding can be accomplished.

SPACECRAFT SHIELDING↗

Analysis of aircraft performance during lateral maneuvering for microburst avoidance

Aircraft response to a severe and a moderate three-dimensional microburst model using nonlinear numerical simulations of a Boeing 737-100 is studied. The relative performance loss is compared for microburst escape procedures with and without lateral maneuvering. The results show that the hazards caused by the penetration of a microburst in the landing phase are attenuated if lateral escape maneuvers are applied in order to turn the aircraft away from the microburst core rather than flying straight through. If the lateral escape maneuver is initiated close to the microburst core, high bank angles tend to deteriorate aircraft performance. Lateral maneuvering is also found to reduce the advanced warning required to escape from microburst hazards but requires that information of the existence and location of the microburst is available (i.e., remote detection) in order to avoid an incorrect turn toward the microburst core.

Avila De Melo, Denise↗

Analysis of 2015 Winter In-Flight Icing Case Studies with Ground-Based Remote Sensing Systems Compared to In-Situ SLW Sondes

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have developed an icing remote sensing technology that has demonstrated skill at detecting and classifying icing hazards in a vertical column above an instrumented ground station. This technology has recently been extended to provide volumetric coverage surrounding an airport. Building on the existing vertical pointing system, the new method for providing volumetric coverage utilizes a vertical pointing cloud radar, a multi-frequency microwave radiometer with azimuth and elevation pointing, and a NEXRAD radar. The new terminal area icing remote sensing system processes the data streams from these instruments to derive temperature, liquid water content, and cloud droplet size for each examined point in space. These data are then combined to ultimately provide icing hazard classification along defined approach paths into an airport. To date, statistical comparisons of the vertical profiling technology have been made to Pilot Reports and Icing Forecast Products. With the extension into relatively large area coverage and the output of microphysical properties in addition to icing severity, the use of these comparators is not appropriate and a more rigorous assessment is required. NASA conducted a field campaign during the early months of 2015 to develop a database to enable the assessment of the new terminal area icing remote sensing system and further refinement of terminal area icing weather information technologies in general. In addition to the ground-based remote sensors listed earlier, in-situ icing environment measurements by weather balloons were performed to produce a comprehensive comparison database. Balloon data gathered consisted of temperature, humidity, pressure, super-cooled liquid water content, and 3-D position with time. Comparison data plots of weather balloon and remote measurements, weather balloon flight paths, bulk comparisons of integrated liquid water content and icing cloud extent agreement, and terminal-area hazard displays are presented. Discussions of agreement quality and paths for future development are also included.

aviation meteorology↗

Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) Origin Sites Readiness Model - 19073

This is a technical paper that does not take into account the contractual limitations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). Under the provisions of the Standard Contract, DOE does not consider spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters to be an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract provisions prevail. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Integrated Waste Management System (IWMS) program is developing an Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) Origin Sites Readiness Model using the Goldsim{sup TM} software application to provide information on potential future approaches for removing SNF and HLW from origin sites such as commercial nuclear power plant sites. The purpose of this ESA model is to apply integrated waste management system analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform future decisions regarding potential future nuclear waste management system architectures. The ESA Origin Sites Readiness Model is a dynamic simulation modeling capability. It is developed for use in the analysis and comparison of potential future implementation strategies associated with an integrated nuclear waste management program. The model is designed to be independent of the destination of the SNF or HLW so the results from the Origin Sites Readiness Model are equally applicable to a wide range of scenarios involving shipments to generic destinations in an integrated waste management system. The model explicitly takes significant assumptions, uncertainties, and risks into account. Currently, the ESA Origin Sites Readiness Model includes 14 shutdown sites (Maine Yankee, Yankee Rowe, Connecticut Yankee, Vermont Yankee, La Crosse, Big Rock Point, Zion, Kewaunee, Fort Calhoun, Trojan, Rancho Seco, Humboldt Bay, San Onofre, and Crystal River) and is designed to be modular so that other sites can be added in the future. The model also includes multiple transportation modes (heavy haul truck, rail, and barge), activities related to the acquisition of transportation assets such as railcars and transportation casks, and site-specific considerations of on-site and near-site transportation infrastructure. The model was developed using the ESA process with Subject Matter Experts (SME); it incorporates uncertainty and risks and provides a structured, systematic methodology for evaluating potential SNF campaign scenarios. The model also complements other system-level logistics tools being developed by SFWD. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impact of Dose to the Bladder Trigone on Long-Term Urinary Function After High-Dose Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Localized Prostate Cancer

Purpose: To determine the potential association between genitourinary (GU) toxicity and planning dose–volume parameters for GU pelvic structures after high-dose intensity modulated radiation therapy in localized prostate cancer patients. Methods and Materials: A total of 268 patients who underwent intensity modulated radiation therapy to a prescribed dose of 86.4 Gy in 48 fractions during June 2004-December 2008 were evaluated with the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) questionnaire. Dose–volume histograms of the whole bladder, bladder wall, urethra, and bladder trigone were analyzed. The primary endpoint for GU toxicity was an IPSS sum increase ≥10 points over baseline. Univariate and multivariate analyses were done by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Results: Median follow-up was 5 years (range, 3-7.7 years). Thirty-nine patients experienced an IPSS sum increase ≥10 during follow-up; 84% remained event free at 5 years. After univariate analysis, lower baseline IPSS sum (P=.006), the V90 of the trigone (P=.006), and the maximal dose to the trigone (P=.003) were significantly associated with an IPSS sum increase ≥10. After multivariate analysis, lower baseline IPSS sum (P=.009) and increased maximal dose to the trigone (P=.005) remained significantly associated. Seventy-two patients had both a lower baseline IPSS sum and a higher maximal dose to the trigone and were defined as high risk, and 68 patients had both a higher baseline IPSS sum and a lower maximal dose to the trigone and were defined as low risk for development of an IPSS sum increase ≥10. Twenty-one of 72 high-risk patients (29%) and 5 of 68 low-risk patients (7%) experienced an IPSS sum increase ≥10 (P=.001; odds ratio 5.19). Conclusions: The application of hot spots to the bladder trigone was significantly associated with relevant changes in IPSS during follow-up. Reduction of radiation dose to the lower bladder and specifically the bladder trigone seems to be associated with a reduction in late GU toxicity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s

Abstract Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade‐study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wasatch Fault Structure from Machine Learning Arrival Times and High-Precision Earthquake Locations

Abstract On 18 March 2020, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake hit the Salt Lake valley in the state of Utah, United States. Using a dense geophone deployment and machine learning (ML), an additional several thousand events were detected and located. Currently, both the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are suspected to have occurred on or near a deeper portion of the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch fault—part of a large range-bounding fault system thought to be capable of generating an Mw 7.2 earthquake. However, a small subset of aftershocks may have occurred on a portion of the more steeply, eastward dipping, and poorly understood West Valley fault. Unfortunately, the catalog locations and lack of focal mechanisms for this subset of aftershocks provide only a crude constraint on the true fault structure. To better illuminate fault structure, we relocate the ML-generated catalog with a range of magnitudes from −2 to 4.6, using: (1) NonLinLoc, a nonlinear location algorithm, (2) source-specific station terms, and (3) waveform coherence. We further compute first-motion focal mechanisms for 68 events. Results of the relocation suggest a simpler, minimally listric Wasatch fault geometry, contrary to what has been previously proposed. We also find that analysis of the focal mechanisms and waveform similarity indicates minimal event similarity throughout the Magna sequence, suggesting a highly complex and heterogeneous rupture zone, as opposed to rupture on a single plane. These findings suggest an increased seismic hazard due to the overall shallowness of the earthquake sequence and highly varied rupture mechanisms.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Research Introduction [Slides]

In the topic of Reverse Time Imaging, we proposed a new IC to reduce computation cost but reserve image resolution for distributed sensor networks. For Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma, we analyzed fault stress state analysis at state scale, and we applied machine learning techniques to polarity picking and seismicity rate forecasting. The results provide better understanding of fault properties, stress field, and the relationships among fault, stress state, injections, and potential seismic hazards. Lastly, for Microseismic Monitoring, we detected and located 770 low-frequency events (5-50 Hz): (1) Shallow events are highly clustered, consistent with the pathway from injection well 13-10A to monitoring well; moment tensor inversion shows dominant tensile cracking; (2) Deep events are scattered and show migration pattern to the basement; moment tensors show that most events are shear cracks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Clutter filter design considerations for Airborne Doppler radar detection of windshear

The problem of clutter rejection when processing down-looking Doppler radar returns from a low altitude airborne platform is a paramount problem. With radar as a remote sensor for detecting and predicting windshear in the vicinity of an urban airport, dynamic range requirements can exceed 50 dB because of high clutter to signal ratios. This presentation describes signal processing considerations in the presence of distributed and/or discrete clutter interference. Previous analyses have considered conventional range cell processing of radar returns from a rigidly mounted radar platform using either the Fourier or the pulse-pair method to estimate average windspeed and windspeed variation within a cell. Clutter rejection has been based largely upon analyzing a particular environment in the vicinity of the radar and employing a variety of techniques to reduce interference effects including notch filtering, Fourier domain line editing, and use of clutter maps. For the airborne environment the clutter characteristics may be somewhat different. Conventional clutter rejection methods may have to be changed and new methods will probably be required to provide useful signal to noise ratios. Various considerations are described. A major thrust has been to evaluate the effect of clutter rejection filtering upon the ability to derive useful information from the post-filter radar data. This analysis software is briefly described. Finally, some ideas for future analysis are considered including the use of adaptive filtering for clutter rejection and the estimation of windspeed spatial gradient directly from radar returns as a means of reducing the effects of clutter on the determination of a windshear hazard.

Baxa, Ernest G., Jr.↗

Simulation of Hypervelocity Impact Effects on Reinforced Carbon-Carbon

Spacecraft operating in low earth orbit face a significant orbital debris impact hazard. Of particular concern, in the case of the Space Shuttle, are impacts on critical components of the thermal protection system. Recent research has formulated a new material model of reinforced carbon-carbon, for use in the analysis of hypervelocity impact effects on the Space Shuttle wing leading edge. The material model has been validated in simulations of published impact experiments and applied to model orbital debris impacts at velocities beyond the range of current experimental methods. The results suggest that momentum scaling may be used to extrapolate the available experimental data base, in order to predict the size of wing leading edge perforations at impact velocities as high as 13 km/s.

Park, Young-Keun↗