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NASA NTRS1999

Analytical Assessment of a Gross Leakage Event Within the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS)

Results of the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS) gross leakage analysis are presented for evaluating total leakage flowrates and volume discharge caused by a gross leakage event (i.e. open boundary condition). A Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer and Fluid Integrator (SINDA/FLUINT) thermal hydraulic mathematical model (THMM) representing the Node 2 IATCS was developed to simulate system performance under steady-state nominal conditions as well as the transient flow effects resulting from an open line exposed to ambient. The objective of the analysis was to determine the adequacy of the leak detection software in limiting the quantity of fluid lost during a gross leakage event to within an acceptable level.

Holt, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The 1997-98 El-Nino Event and Related Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the current warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

Buechler, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dissipative Processes in the Magnetopause Boundary Layer and Flux Transfer Events Using the Interball Spacecraft

Work on two quite distinct projects was accomplished: a study of flux transfer events and a study of the magnetosheath-polar cusp interface. The study with Oleg Vaisberg of the Space Research Institute in Moscow used only Interball data. We analyzed the magnetometer data and to assist the observations of Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) to aid in the interpretation of the data. One of the issues was to distinguish between simple traversals of the magnetopause and encounters with FTES. Once that distinction became clear then we could examine the changes in the plasma associated with the FTE. The second study was undertaken to study the turbulent interaction of the magnetosheath flow past the polar cusp. In this study Polar Data was used inside the magnetosphere as Interball crossed through the cusp into the magnetosheath. Our most interesting but least turbulent example was on May 29, 1996 when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was northward. During these conditions the magnetosheath interface with the cusp becomes streamlined due to reconnection above the polar cusp. This reconnection provides a smooth surface across which the velocity shear occurs, thus minimizing turbulence in the interaction. The magnetopause current lies closer to the Earth than the flow boundary. This current layer reverses the field direction from nortward to southward in the neighborhood of the distant cusp and is somewhat noisty but not as much as this region becomes when the IMF is southward.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the latest warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such year-to-year changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the recent ENSO event the greatest year-to-year changes in lightning frequency occur within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin where there is nearly a 200% increase in lightning days year-to-year (35 days in 1997-98 vs. 13 days in 1996-97) and a 200% increase in lightning hours (150 hours vs. 50). These changes occur in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones and an anomalously strong jet stream encompassing much of the Gulf basin.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Southern California Perspective of the April, 1998 Trans-Pacific Asian Dust Event

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coherent CO2 backscatter lidar has been in almost continuous operation since 1984 and has now accumulated a significant time-series database tracking the long-term and seasonal variability of backscatter from the atmospheric column above the Pasadena, Calif. locale. A particularly noteworthy episode observed by the lidar in 1998 was a particularly extreme instance of incursion by Asian-sourced dust during the closing days of April. Such events are not uncommon during the northern spring, when strong cold fronts and convection over the Asian interior deserts loft crustal material into the mid-troposphere whence it can be transported across the Pacific Ocean, occasionally reaching the continental US. However, the abnormal strength of the initiating storm in this case generated an atypically dense cloud of material which resulted in dramatically reduced visibility along the length of the Western Seaboard. These dust events are now recognized as a potentially significant, non-negligible radiative forcing influence. The progress of the April 1998 dust cloud eastward across the Pacific Ocean was initially observed in satellite imagery and transmitted to the broader atmospheric research community via electronic communications. The use of Internet technology in this way was effective in facilitating a rapid response correlative measurement exercise by numerous atmospheric observation stations throughout the western US and its success has resulted in the subsequent establishment of an ad hoc communications environment, data exchange medium, and mechanism for providing early-warning alert of other significant atmospheric phenomena in the future.

Tratt, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Initial Time Dependence of Abundances in Solar Energetic Particle Events

We compare the initial behavior of Fe/O and He/H abundance ratios and their relationship to the evolution of the proton energy spectra in "small" and "large" gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The results are qualitatively consistent with the behavior predicted by the theory of Ng et al. (1999a, b). He/H ratios that initially rise with time are a signature of scattering by non-Kolmogorov Alfven wave spectra generated by intense beams of shock-accelerated protons streaming outward in large gradual SEP events.

Reames, Donald V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast U.S. Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the warm episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 198283. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the detailed coverage of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such interannual changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the 1997-98 ENSO event the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin there is a 100-150% increase in lightning days year-to-year (a peak of 33 days in the winter of 1997-98 vs. only 15 days or fewer in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 winter). In addition, there is a nearly 200% increase in lightning hours (a peak of 138 hours in 1996-97 vs. 50 hours in both 1996-97 and 1998-99). The increase in lightning activity during ENSO occurs in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones that developed within or moved through the Gulf basin. The primary variables controlling these enhancements in thunderstorm activity are the position and strength of the jet stream.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2000

Abrupt Changes at the Permian/Triassic Boundary: Tempo of Events from High-Resolution Cyclostratigraphy

The Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) boundary (251.4 +/- 3 Myr) is marked by the most severe mass extinction in the geologic record. Recently, precise absolute dating has bracketed the marine extinctions and associated carbon-isotope anomaly within less than 1 Myr. We improve this resolution through high-resolution stratigraphy across the P/Tr boundary in the 331-m Gartnerkofel-1 core and nearby Reppwand outcrop section (Carnic Alps, Austria) utilizing FFT and wavelet timeseries analyses of cyclic components in down-hole core logs of density and natural gamma-ray intensity, and carbon-isotopic ratios of bulk samples. The wavelet analysis indicates continuity of deposition across the P/Tr boundary interval, and the timeseries analyses show evidence for persistent cycles in the ratio of approximately 40: 10: 4.7: 2.3 meters, correlated with Milankovitch-band orbital cycles of approximately 412: 100: 40: 20 kyr (eccentricity 1 and 2, obliquity, and precession), and giving a consistent average sedimentation rate of approximately 10 cm/1,000 yr. Milankovitch periods in delta C-13 and density in these shallow-water carbonates were most likely the result of climatically induced oscillations of sea level and climate, coupled with changes in ocean circulation and productivity, that affected sedimentation. Fluctuations in gamma radiation reflect varying input of clay minerals and the presence of shaly interbeds. Throughout the P/Tr boundary interval in the core, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle seems to be dominant. Weaker obliquity and precession cycles are in line with the location of the Austrian section in the latest Permian, close to the Equator in the western bight of the Tethys, where obliquity and precessional effects on seasonal contrast might be subdued. Using the improved resolution provided by cycle analysis in the GK-1 core, we find that the dramatic change in the faunal record that marks the P/Tr boundary takes place over less than 6m, or less than 60,000 years. In the nearby Reppwand outcrop section, the same faunal changes occurs over only 0.8 m or about 8,000 years, close to the limit of time-resolution induced by bioturbation and reworking in these sediments. The sharp negative global carbon-isotope shift took place within less than or equal to 40,000 yr, and the isotope excursions persisted for approximately 480,000 yr into the Early Triassic. The results indicate that the severe marine faunal event that marks the P/Tr boundary was very sudden, perhaps less than the resolution window in the GK-1 core, and suggest a catastrophic cause. The wavelet-analysis approach to high-resolution cyclostratigraphy can be applied to other P/Tr boundary sections, and when combined with precise absolute dating and magnetostratigraphic methods promises a significant increase in resolution in determining the correlation and tempo of the end-Permian extinctions and related events worldwide.

Rampino, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Black Hole Event Horizons and Advection-Dominated Accretion

The XMM data on black-hole X-ray novae are only now becoming available and they have so far not been included in any publications. This work is part of a larger project that makes use of both XMM and Chandra data. Our first publication on the Chandra results is the following: "New Evidence for Black Hole Event Horizons from Chandra" by M.R. Garcia, J.E. McClintock, R. Narayan, P. Callanan, D. Barret and S. Murray (2001, ApJ, 553, L47). Therein we present the luminosities of the two black-hole X-ray novae, GRO J0422+22 and 4U1 543-47, which were observed by Chandra. These results are combined with the luminosities of four additional black-hole X-ray novae, which were observed as part of a Chandra GTO program (PI: S. Murray). The very low, but nonzero, quiescent X-ray luminosities of these black hole binaries is very difficult to understand in the context of standard viscous accretion disk theory. The principal result of this work is that X-ray novae that contain black hole primaries are about 100 times fainter that X-ray novae that contain neutron star primaries. This result had been suggested in earlier work, but the present work very firmly establishes this large luminosity difference. The result is remarkable because the black-hole and the neutron-star systems are believed to be similar in many respects. Most importantly, the mass transfer rate from the secondary star is believed to be very comparable for the two kinds of systems for similar orbital periods. The advection-dominated accretion flow (ADAF) model provides a natural framework for understanding the extraordinarily low luminosities of the black hole systems and the hundred-fold greater luminosities of the neutron star systems. The chief feature of an ADAF is that the heat energy in the accreting gas is trapped in the gas and travels with it, rather than being radiated promptly. Thus the accreting gas reaches the central object with a huge amount of thermal energy. If the accretor is a black hole, the thermal energy will disappear through the event horizon, and the object will be very dim. On the other hand, if the central object is a neutron star or any other object with a surface, then the energy will be radiated from the surface, and the object will be bright.

McClintock, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1995

Nonlinear Control and Discrete Event Systems

As the operation of large systems becomes ever more dependent on extensive automation, the need for an effective solution to the problem of design and validation of the underlying software becomes more critical. Large systems possesses much detailed structure, typically hierarchical, and they are hybrid. Information processing at the top of the hierarchy is by means of formal logic and sentences; on the bottom it is by means of simple scalar differential equations and functions of time; and in the middle it is by an interacting mix of nonlinear multi-axis differential equations and automata, and functions of time and discrete events. The lecture will address the overall problem as it relates to flight vehicle management, describe the middle level, and offer a design approach that is based on Differential Geometry and Discrete Event Dynamic Systems Theory.

Meyer, George↗
NASA NTRS2002

Regional Climate Simulation of the Anomalous Events of 1998 using a Stretched-Grid GCM with Multiple Areas of Interest

The GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) stretched-grid (SG) GCM developed and thoroughly tested over the last few years, is used for simulating the major anomalous regional climate events of 1998. The anomalous regional climate events are simulated simultaneously during the 13 months long (November-1997 - December-1998) SG-GCM simulation due to using the new SG-design with multiple (four) areas of interest. The following areas/regions of interest (one at each global quadrant) are implemented: U.S./Northern Mexico, the El-Nino/Brazil area, India-China, and Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia.

Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Analytical Assessment of a Gross Leakage Event Within the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS)

Results of the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS) gross leakage analysis are presented for evaluating total leakage flow rates and volume discharge caused by a gross leakage event (i.e. open boundary condition). A Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer and Fluid Integrator (SINDA85/FLUINT) thermal hydraulic mathematical model (THMM) representing the Node 2 IATCS was developed to simulate system performance under steady-state nominal conditions as well as the transient flow effect resulting from an open line exposed to ambient. The objective of the analysis was to determine the adequacy of the leak detection software in limiting the quantity of fluid lost during a gross leakage event to within an acceptable level.

Holt, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Black Hole Event Horizons and Advection-Dominated Accretion

The work supported in part by this grant is part of a larger program on the detection of black hole event horizons, which is also partially supported by NASA grant GO0-1105A. This work has been carried out primarily in collaboration with Dr. M. Garcia and Prof. R. Narayan at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and with D. Barret and J. Hameury at Centre d'Etude Spoliate des Rayonnements, France. Our purpose is to confirm the existence of black-hole event horizons by comparing accreting black holes to secreting neutron stars in quiescent X-ray novae. Such a comparison is feasible because black holes and neutron stars are both present in similar environments in X-ray novae. Our second purpose is to assess the nature of accretion flows onto black holes at very low mass transfer rates. Observations of some XMM targets are still pending, whereas most of the Chandra observations have been completed. We anticipate further publications on this work in the future.

McClintock, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2002

Realizing Aspects by Transforming for Events

We explore the extent to which concerns can be separated in programs by program transformation with respect to the events required by these concerns. We describe our early work on developing a system to perform event-driven transformation and discuss possible applications of this approach.

Filman, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Extreme Weather Events and Their Relationship to Low Frequency Teleconnection Patterns

A new method for identifying the structure and other characteristics of extreme weather events is introduced and applied to both model simulations and observations. The approach is based on a linear regression model that links daily extreme precipitation amounts for a particular point on the globe to precipitation and related quantities at all other points. We present here some initial results of our analysis of extreme precipitation events over the United States, including how they are influenced by ENSO and various large-scale teleconnection patterns such as the PNA. The results are based on simulations made with the NASA/NCAR AGCM (Lin and Rood 1996). The quality of the simulated climate for the NASA/NCAR AGCM forced with observed SSTs is described in Chang et al. (2001). The runs analyzed here consist of three 20-year runs forced with idealized cold, neutral and warm ENSO SST anomalies (superimposed on the mean seasonal cycle of SST). The idealized warm or cold SST anomalies are fixed throughout each 20- year simulation and consist of the first EOF (+/- 3 standard deviations) of monthly SST data. Comparisons are made with the results obtained from a similar analysis that uses daily NOAA precipitation observations (Higgins et al. 1996) over the United States and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1949-1998.

Chang, Yehui↗
NASA NTRS2003

Multiple Autonomous Discrete Event Controllers for Constellations

The Multiple Autonomous Discrete Event Controllers for Constellations (MADECC) project is an effort within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center's (NASA/GSFC) Information Systems Division to develop autonomous positioning and attitude control for constellation satellites. It will be accomplished using traditional control theory and advanced coordination algorithms developed by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL). This capability will be demonstrated in the discrete event control test-bed located at JHU/APL. This project will be modeled for the Leonardo constellation mission, but is intended to be adaptable to any constellation mission. To develop a common software architecture. the controllers will only model very high-level responses. For instance, after determining that a maneuver must be made. the MADECC system will output B (Delta)V (velocity change) value. Lower level systems must then decide which thrusters to fire and for how long to achieve that (Delta)V.

Esposito, Timothy C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

In-Flight Observations of Long-Term Single Event Effect(SEE)Performance on Orbview-2 and Xray Timing Explorer(XTE)Solid State Recorders (SSR)

This paper presents Single Event Effect (SEE) in-flight data on Solid State Recorders (SSR) that have been collected over a long period of time for two NASA spacecraft: Orbview-2 and XTE. SEE flight data on solid-state memories give an opportunity to study the behavior in space of SEE sensitive commercial devices. The actual Single Event Upset (SEU) rates can be compared with the calculated rates based on environment models and ground test data. The SEE mitigation schemes can also be evaluated in actual implementation. A significant amount of data has already been published concerning observed SEE effects on memories in space. However, most of the data presented cover either a short period of time or a small number of devices. The data presented here has been collected on a large number of devices during several years. This allows statistically significant information about the effect of space weather fluctuations on SEU rates, and the effectiveness of SEE countermeasures used to be analyzed. Only Orbview-2 data is presented in this summary. XTE data will be included in the final paper.

Poivey, Christian↗