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DOE OSTI2025

Engineering Out Industry 4.0 Cyber Risk

The increasing complexity and business requirements of operational technology (OT) devices is beginning to break the normal segmentation between information technology (IT) and OT networks. The introduction of industry 4.0 devices such as industrial internet of things (IIoT) and other intelligent industrial devices (IID), virtualized OT systems, OT cloud integration, and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven industrial control systems (ICS) has challenged traditional IT/OT cybersecurity strategies. Industry 4.0 devices are analyzed through the lens of well-regarded models such as the PERA model and confidentiality, integrity, and availability (CIA) security objectives, showing the division between what is needed and traditional cybersecurity countermeasures. In this paper, the practice of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is proposed to bridge the gap between IT/OT security, enhance the practice of cybersecurity in this modern age, and reduce the impacts of consequential events in OT.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Double-reconnected magnetic structures driven by Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices at the Earth's magnetosphere

In an almost collisionless magnetohydrodynamic plasma in a relatively strong magnetic field, stresses can be conveyed far from the region where they are exerted, e.g., through the propagation of Alfvèn waves. The forced dynamics of line-tied magnetic structures in solar and stellar coronae (see, e.g., A. F. Rappazzo and E. N. Parker, Astrophys. J. 773, L2 (2013) and references therein) is a paradigmatic case. Here, we investigate how this action at a distance develops from the equatorial region of the Kelvin-Helmholtz unstable flanks of the Earth's magnetosphere leading to the onset, at mid latitude in both hemispheres, of correlated double magnetic field line reconnection events that can allow the solar wind plasma to enter the Earth's magnetosphere.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Functional droplets that recognize, collect, and transport debris on surfaces

We describe polymer-stabilized droplets capable of recognizing and picking up nanoparticles from substrates in experiments designed for transporting hydroxyapatite nanoparticles that represent the principal elemental composition of bone. Our experiments, which are inspired by cells that carry out materials transport in vivo, used oil-in-water droplets that traverse a nanoparticle-coated substrate driven by an imposed fluid flow. Nanoparticle capture is realized by interaction of the particles with chemical functionality embedded within the polymeric stabilizing layer on the droplets. Nanoparticle uptake efficiency is controlled by solution conditions and the extent of functionality available for contact with the nanoparticles. Moreover, in an elementary demonstration of nanoparticle transportation, particles retrieved initially from the substrate were later deposited “downstream,” illustrating a pickup and drop-off technique that represents a first step toward mimicking point-to-point transportation events conducted in living systems.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Nonlinear Theory of Atmospheric Blocking: A Potential Vorticity Gradient View

In this paper, an extended nonlinear multiscale interaction model of blocking events in the equivalent barotropic atmosphere is used to investigate the effect of a slowly varying zonal wind in the meridional direction on dipole blocking that is regarded as a nonlinear Rossby wave packet. It is shown that the meridional gradient of potential vorticity [Formula: see text] prior to the blocking onset, which is related to the background zonal wind and its nonuniform meridional shear, can significantly affect the lifetime, intensity, and north–south asymmetry of dipole blocking, while the blocking dipole itself is driven by preexisting incident synoptic-scale eddies. The magnitude of the background PV y determines the energy dispersion and nonlinearity of blocking. It is revealed that a small background PV y is a prerequisite for strong and long-lived eddy-driven blocking that behaves as a persistent meandering westerly jet stream, while the blocking establishment further reduces the PV y within the blocking region, resulting in a positive feedback between blocking and PV y . When the core of the background westerly jet shifts from higher to lower latitudes, the blocking shows a northwest–southeast-oriented dipole with a strong anticyclonic anomaly to the northwest and a weak cyclonic anomaly to the southeast as its northern pole moves westward more rapidly and has weaker energy dispersion and stronger nonlinearity than its southern pole because of the smaller PV y in higher latitudes. The opposite is true when the background jet shifts toward higher latitudes. The asymmetry of dipole blocking vanishes when the background jet shows a symmetric double-peak structure. Thus, a small prior PV y is a favorable precursor for the occurrence of long-lived and large-amplitude blocking.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1995

Suprathermal electron loss cone distributions in the solar wind: Ulysses observations

Solar wind suprathermal electron distributions in the solar wind generally carry a field-aligned antisunward heat flux. Within coronal mass ejections and upstream of strong shocks driven by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), counterstreaming electron beams are observed. We present observations by the Ulysses solar wind plasma experiment of a new class of suprathermal electron signatures. At low solar latitudes and heliocentric distances beyond 3.5 AU Ulysses encountered several intervals, ranging in duration from 1 hour to 22 hours, in which the suprathermal distributions included an antisunward field-aligned beam and a return population with a flux dropout typically spanning +/- 60 deg from the sunward field-aligned direction. All events occurred within CIRs, downstream of the forward and reverse shocks or waves bounding the interaction regions. We evaluate the hypothesis that the sunward-moving electrons result from reflection of the antisunward beams at magnetic field compressions downstream from the observations, with wide loss cones caused by the relatively weak compression ratio. This hypothesis requires that field magnitude within the CIRs actually increase with increasing field-aligned distance from the Sun. Details of the electron distributions and ramifications for CIR and shock geometry will be presented.

Phillips, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Exploration Medical Capability Medical Scenarios

Medical systems supporting exploration class missions to cislunar space, the lunar surface, and the vicinity of Mars require an evolution in medical capability beyond that available for today’s low Earth orbit centric paradigm. Progress in developing more capable medical systems will be driven by the requirements of prolonged mission duration, increasing distance from Earth, and the realities of orbital mechanics, all necessitating a concomitant need for progressively Earth independent medical decision-making capabilities. These medical systems (which include the crewmembers) are expected to be capable of evaluating, diagnosing, treating and managing a defined list of medical conditions as well as addressing unanticipated medical conditions that may arise. The prioritized medical capabilities and associated resources needed to treat these medical conditions and support anticipated inflight medical events provide robust content that informs system designers and allows for a more complete evaluation of both medical and overall mission risk. Communication of these medical capabilities to system, vehicle, and mission designers can be enhanced using scenarios that characterize the system’s operations. Carefully considered scenarios provide the context needed to explore expected human and system interfaces, roles of ground and inflight crew (including periods of interrupted or delayed communications), identify training needs, assess data needs, etc. Mission-based scenario content varies dependent upon the needs, medical capabilities, conditions and context they are intended to illustrate. This document explicitly seeks to capture and codify those scenarios that have been useful to the Exploration Medical Capability Element of the Human Research Program in defining the enhanced medical systems required for future space exploration. It is expected that this document will continue to evolve through the refinement and characterization of current and future scenarios, respectively, as our knowledge grows, and requirements increasingly focus on Earth independent spaceflight operations.

Derek M Nusbaum↗

DOE OSTI2020

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Through Data-Driven, Intelligent Designed Control: A Formal Methods Approach

The PNNL and GTRI team developed a strategy to integrate temporal logic rule specification for detection of cyber-intrusion in the source code and control algorithms of CPS using advanced cyber-data. The GTRI team utilized its capabilities in rule synthesis and temporal logic specifications for software assurance and verification to detect and predict impact of cyber-intrusions and malware in the computational and control algorithms of cyber-physical systems. The team also developed a testing and verification approach that could be used to validate the suggested approach against a realistic use-case CPS showcasing improvements in system impact prediction performance. Temporal logic offers a compact expression of events in absolute and relative time and has a formalized translation to state machines. As such, temporal logic rules can feasibly be synthesized to any system as a rule engine, with the process being formally verified to be correct. The goal here is to utilize temporal logic rules to detect cyber-attacks and manipulations in the computational algorithms and provide real-time software assurance and verification guarantees.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A physics-based parametric regression approach for feedwater pump system diagnosis

Here in this paper, we assessed the performance of a model-based approach for fault diagnosis of a nuclear power plant feedwater pump system. Physics-based models were constructed to monitor the performance of the system components. Plant data were used for the calibration of the models and subsequently in the diagnosis of abnormal events. We considered two real-time events representing scenarios of a pump fault and component performance degradation. The two events were correctly diagnosed, and the results demonstrated the high detection sensitivity of the physics-based models. Various sensor fault scenarios were simulated to show the capability of the approach to detect and uniquely identify sensor faults. Results for a scenario in which the plant operated in flexible power mode also showed that the diagnostic approach is insensitive to changes of operating conditions, which is one of the advantages of the model-based approach using physics-based models over purely data-driven approach.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence statistical analysis of the L-H transition and RMPs in KSTAR

Here, we investigate the turbulence statistics associated with low-to-high confinement (L-H) transitions and externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in KSTAR. Time-series fluctuations of electron density n e , electron temperature T e , and the time derivative of the poloidal magnetic field dB θ /dt (Mirnov coils) are analysed using information-geometric measures (information rate Γ and information length $\mathcal{L}$ = ∫ Γ dt), together with kurtosis κ and variance σ 2 . In low-density upper single-null plasmas (n e ~ 1.2 x 10 19 m -3 ), a ~80 kHz magnetic mode coupling n e , T e , dB θ /dt and emerges prior to the L-H transition and persists into the edge-localised modes H-mode. Edge-localised RMPs (ERMPs) suppress this coherent mode but enhance intermittency, producing frequent bursts that abruptly reshape the time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and generate large spikes in Γ (with smaller changes in κ), signalling ERMP-driven departures from quasi-stationarity. The impact of ERMPs on background fluctuation levels depends on density, radial location, and the fluctuating variable itself ($\tilde{n}$, $\tilde{T}$, $\dot{B}$ θ ), whereas $\mathcal{L}$ provides a robust, regime-agnostic measure of cumulative statistical reorganisation and spatial decorrelation. In particular, at low density we observe weaker coupling between $\tilde{n}$ and $\tilde{T}$, along with a tendency toward decreased radial correlation-most clearly for $\tilde{T}$-under ERMPs. Overall, information geometry cleanly captures intermittent events, quantifies non-equilibrium PDF evolution, and offers a compact, cross-diagnostic metric for assessing resonant magnetic perturbation effects on edge transport and correlation across densities, radial locations, and confinement states.

Kim, Eun-jin [Coventry Univ. (United Kingdom); Seo↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating Valve Switching Losses Into a Static Optimal Control Algorithm for the Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA)

The Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA) has, in recent years, been proposed as an energy efficient alternative to conventional load-sensing architectures in mobile machines such as excavators and wheel-loaders. HHEA leverages the advantages of hydraulic power and electric power to eliminate throttling valves while also improving the energy and control performance of the system. The architecture utilizes a set of common pressure rails to provide a majority of power and and a small electric motor driven pump to modulate this power to meet the exact demand. Previous work has developed a computationally efficient Lagrange Multiplier approach for determining the optimal pressure rail selections that minimizes the energy losses in the system. The static model used considers only the energy use for each pressure rail selection but not the losses associated with the valves during the transition. This paper presents an approach to include the switching losses in the model and in the optimization procedure. To capture the switching losses, switching events between different rails and at various input and output flow rates were simulated with consideration of valve spool dynamics. A parameterized model that summarizes the losses is then obtained, allowing switching losses to be added to the previous energy analysis. The performance of the switching loss model was compared with reference data obtained from a high-fidelity simulation model. To incorporate the switching losses into optimal control algorithm, an efficient dynamic programming approach that prevents frequent switching is adopted in place of the Lagrange multiplier approach. The overall effect of switching losses on the energy consumption and optimal control decisions is presented. In general, switching losses contribute to about 9–10% of input energy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2010

Coronal Mass Ejections: a Summary of Recent Results

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. This paper highlights some of the recent results on CMEs obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions. The summary of the talk follows. SOHO observations revealed that the CME rate is almost a factor of two larger than previously thought and varied with the solar activity cycle in a complex way (e.g., high-latitude CMEs occurred in great abundance during the solar maximum years). CMEs were found to interact with other CMEs as well as with other large-scale structures (coronal holes), resulting in deflections and additional particle acceleration. STEREO observations have confirmed the three-dimensional nature of CMEs and the shocks surrounding them. The EUV signatures (flare arcades, corona) dimming, filament eruption, and EUV waves) associated with CMEs have become vital in the identification of solar sources from which CMEs erupt. CMEs with speeds exceeding the characteristic speeds of the corona and the interplanetary medium drive shocks, which produce type II radio bursts. The wavelength range of type II bursts depends on the CME kinetic energy: type II bursts with emission components at all wavelengths (metric to kilometric) are due to CMEs of the highest kinetic energy. Some CMEs, as fast as 1600 km/s do not produce type II bursts, while slow CMEs (400 km/s) occasionally produce type II bursts. These observations can be explained as the variation in the ambient flow speed (solar wind) and the Alfven speed. Not all CME-driven shocks produce type II bursts because either they are subcritical or do not have the appropriate geometry. The same shocks that produce type II bursts also produce solar energetic particles (SEPs), whose release near the Sun seems to be delayed with respect to the onset of type II bursts. This may indicate a subtle difference in the acceleration of the ions and 10 keV electrons needed to produce type II bursts. Surprisingly, some shocks lacking type II bursts are associated with energetic storm particle events (ESPs) pointing to the importance of electron escape from the shock for producing the radio emission. CMEs slow down or accelerate in the interplanetary medium because of the drag force, which modifies the transit time of CMEs and shocks. Halo CMEs that appear to surround the occulting disk were known before the SOHO era as occasional events. During the SOHO era, they became very prominent because of their ability to impact Earth and producing geomagnetic storms. Halo CMEs are generally more energetic than ordinary CMEs, which means they can produce severe impact on Earth's magnetosphere. Their origin close to the disk center of the Sun ensures direct impact on the magnetosphere, although their internal magnetic structure is crucial in causing storms. The solar sources of CMEs that produce SEP events at Earth, on the other hand, are generally in the western hemisphere because of the magnetic connectivity. Thus, CMEs are very interesting from the point of view of plasma physics as well as practical implications because of their space weather impact.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗

NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗

DOE OSTI2026

Playa de Ponce's Advancements in Energy Affordability and Reliability

Un Nuevo Amanecer Inc. (UNA), a community-based nonprofit organization, partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to develop a Strategic Energy Plan (SEP) for the community of Playa de Ponce on the southern coast of Puerto Rico. The SEP provides a community-driven roadmap to improve local energy systems by identifying shared priorities, strategies, and actions that support a more reliable, affordable, and resilient energy future. Over a seven-month period, researchers from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) worked with UNA, the Puerto Rico Hispanic Federation, community leaders, and residents to gather input through engagement workshops held in March and June 2025. These discussions helped define the community's energy vision and identify key challenges, including high electricity costs, unreliable service during extreme weather events, and risks to public health and safety - particularly for the community's aging population. This fact sheet summarizes the key elements of the Strategic Energy Plan, including four priority strategies organized around three focus areas identified by the community: energy reliability, safety and security, and stakeholder participation, education, and capacity building. Together, these strategies outline actionable pathways to strengthen Playa de Ponce's energy resilience and support long-term community goals. The plan serves as a shared reference for community members, local organizations, and government partners working to advance energy solutions in Playa de Ponce and complements broader municipal and island-wide planning efforts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Playa de Ponce's Advancements in Energy Affordability and Reliability (Spanish Translation)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Groundwater drainage from fissures as a source for lahars

One mechanism for generating lahars at volcanoes experiencing unrest is the disruption of internal aquifers. These disruptions can trigger releases of large quantities of groundwater. An example of such aquifer disruption occurred at Nevado del Huila Volcano, Colombia, during February and April 2007 when large fractures formed across the summit area of the volcano and lahars were emitted from them. Previous work interpreted that lahar volumes could not be accounted for by melted glacial snow or precipitation, and by elimination suggested that the primary water source was groundwater. Conceptual models have been developed for perched, confined aquifers that have been heated and pressurized by magma intrusions, followed by sudden pressure release and water emission during fracture formation. In this paper, we consider an alternative end member wherein water release from large fissures at volcanoes is driven by simple gravity drainage. We apply numerical modeling to quantify water discharge from the porous medium surrounding a fissure with a low-elevation free exit. If a long fracture with high vertical extent (on the order of hundreds of meters) intersects a highly connected saturated porous medium, large volumes (on order 10 3 m 3 /m of crack length) of water may be released within tens of minutes. The drainage rates from the model may be adequate to account for the Nevado del Huila events if the medium surrounding the crack contains a large volume of water and has high horizontal permeability. Finally, this simple but poorly understood mechanism can present a hazard on its own or compound other processes releasing water from volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗