Intelligent decision making for autonomous rover operations
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rover operations↗
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Results for “decisions”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Aerobraking cost/risk decisions
this paper provides a brief history of past and future aerobraking missions, describes the aerobraking technique, summarizes the costs associated with aerobraking, and concludes with a suggested methodology for evaluating the cost/risk trade when selecting the aerobraking approach.
cost↗
Tapered Roller Bearing Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis
A diagnostic tool was developed for detecting fatigue damage of tapered roller bearings. Tapered roller bearings are used in helicopter transmissions and have potential for use in high bypass advanced gas turbine aircraft engines. A diagnostic tool was developed and evaluated experimentally by collecting oil debris data from failure progression tests conducted using health monitoring hardware. Failure progression tests were performed with tapered roller bearings under simulated engine load conditions. Tests were performed on one healthy bearing and three pre-damaged bearings. During each test, data from an on-line, in-line, inductance type oil debris sensor and three accelerometers were monitored and recorded for the occurrence of bearing failure. The bearing was removed and inspected periodically for damage progression throughout testing. Using data fusion techniques, two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated into a health monitoring system for detecting bearing surface fatigue pitting damage. The data fusion diagnostic tool was evaluated during bearing failure progression tests under simulated engine load conditions. This integrated system showed improved detection of fatigue damage and health assessment of the tapered roller bearings as compared to using individual health monitoring technologies.
Dempsey, Paula J.↗
Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions
This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.
space exploration proposals↗
Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making
Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.
Chatterji, Gano B.↗
Going Below Minimums: The Efficacy of Display Enhanced/Synthetic Vision Fusion for Go-Around Decisions during Non-Normal Operations
The use of enhanced vision systems in civil aircraft is projected to increase rapidly as the Federal Aviation Administration recently changed the aircraft operating rules under Part 91, revising the flight visibility requirements for conducting approach and landing operations. Operators conducting straight-in instrument approach procedures may now operate below the published approach minimums when using an approved enhanced flight vision system that shows the required visual references on the pilot's Head-Up Display. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the complementary use of synthetic vision systems and enhanced vision system technologies, focusing on new techniques for integration and/or fusion of synthetic and enhanced vision technologies and crew resource management while operating under these newly adopted rules. Experimental results specific to flight crew response to non-normal events using the fused synthetic/enhanced vision system are presented.
Prinzel, Lawrence J., III↗
Difficult Decisions Made Easier
NASA missions are extremely complex and prone to sudden, catastrophic failure if equipment falters or if an unforeseen event occurs. For these reasons, NASA trains to expect the unexpected. It tests its equipment and systems in extreme conditions, and it develops risk-analysis tests to foresee any possible problems. The Space Agency recently worked with an industry partner to develop reliability analysis software capable of modeling complex, highly dynamic systems, taking into account variations in input parameters and the evolution of the system over the course of a mission. The goal of this research was multifold. It included performance and risk analyses of complex, multiphase missions, like the insertion of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter; reliability analyses of systems with redundant and/or repairable components; optimization analyses of system configurations with respect to cost and reliability; and sensitivity analyses to identify optimal areas for uncertainty reduction or performance enhancement.
Source record↗
Aerobraking Cost and Risk Decisions
Four missions have successfully employed aerobraking at Venus and Mars to reduce the spacecraft orbit period and achieve the desired orbit geometry. The propellant mass reductions enabled by the aerobraking technique allow the use of smaller launch systems, which translate to significant savings in launch costs for flight projects. However, there is a significant increase in mission risk associated with the use of aerobraking. Flying a spacecraft through a planetary atmosphere hundreds of times during months of around-the-clock operations places the spacecraft in harm's way, and is extraordinarily demanding on the flight team. There is a cost/risk trade that must be evaluated when a project is choosing between a mission baseline that includes aerobraking, or selecting a larger launch vehicle to enable purely propulsive orbit insertion. This paper provides a brief history of past and future aerobraking missions, describes the aerobraking technique, summarizes the costs associated with aerobraking, and concludes with a suggested methodology for evaluating the cost/risk trade when considering the aerobraking approach.
risk analysis↗
Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems
The residual signal indicates that the pollen event may influence the seasonal signal to an extent that would allow detection, given accurate QA filtering and BRDF corrections. MODIS daily reflectances increased during the pollen season. The DREAM model (PREAM) was successfully modified for use with pollen and may provide 24-36 hour running pollen forecasts. Publicly available pollen forecasts are linked to general weather patterns and roughly-known species phenologies. These are too coarse for timely health interventions. PREAM addresses this key data gap so that targeting intervention measures can be determined temporally and geospatially. The New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH) as part of its Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) would use PREAM a tool for alerting the public in advance of pollen bursts to intervene and reduce the health impact on asthma populations at risk.
Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
Solutions Network Formulation Report. Landsat Data Continuity Mission Simulated Data Products for Bureau of Land Management and Environmental Protection Agency Abandoned Mine Lands Decision Support
Presently, the BLM (Bureau of Land Management) has identified a multitude of abandoned mine sites in primarily Western states for cleanup. These sites are prioritized and appropriate cleanup has been called in to reclaim the sites. The task is great in needing considerable amounts of agency resources. For instance, in Colorado alone there exists an estimated 23,000 abandoned mines. The problem is not limited to Colorado or to the United States. Cooperation for reclamation is sought at local, state, and federal agency level to aid in identification, inventory, and cleanup efforts. Dangers posed by abandoned mines are recognized widely and will tend to increase with time because some of these areas are increasingly used for recreation and, in some cases, have been or are in the process of development. In some cases, mines are often vandalized once they are closed. The perpetrators leave them open, so others can then access the mines without realizing the danger posed. Abandoned mine workings often fill with water or oxygen-deficient air and dangerous gases following mining. If the workings are accidentally entered into, water or bad air can prove fatal to those underground. Moreover, mine residue drainage negatively impacts the local watershed ecology. Some of the major hazards that might be monitored by higher-resolution satellites include acid mine drainage, clogged streams, impoundments, slides, piles, embankments, hazardous equipment or facilities, surface burning, smoke from underground fires, and mine openings.
Estep, Leland↗
Decision Engines for Software Analysis Using Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solvers
The area of software analysis, testing and verification is now undergoing a revolution thanks to the use of automated and scalable support for logical methods. A well-recognized premise is that at the core of software analysis engines is invariably a component using logical formulas for describing states and transformations between system states. The process of using this information for discovering and checking program properties (including such important properties as safety and security) amounts to automatic theorem proving. In particular, theorem provers that directly support common software constructs offer a compelling basis. Such provers are commonly called satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solvers. Z3 is a state-of-the-art SMT solver. It is developed at Microsoft Research. It can be used to check the satisfiability of logical formulas over one or more theories such as arithmetic, bit-vectors, lists, records and arrays. The talk describes some of the technology behind modern SMT solvers, including the solver Z3. Z3 is currently mainly targeted at solving problems that arise in software analysis and verification. It has been applied to various contexts, such as systems for dynamic symbolic simulation (Pex, SAGE, Vigilante), for program verification and extended static checking (Spec#/Boggie, VCC, HAVOC), for software model checking (Yogi, SLAM), model-based design (FORMULA), security protocol code (F7), program run-time analysis and invariant generation (VS3). We will describe how it integrates support for a variety of theories that arise naturally in the context of the applications. There are several new promising avenues and the talk will touch on some of these and the challenges related to SMT solvers. Proceedings
Bjorner, Nikolaj↗
Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate
This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.
Zhang, Xiaodong↗
Bone Health Monitoring in Astronauts: Recommended Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography [QCT] for Clinical and Operational Decisions
This slide presentation reviews the concerns that astronauts in long duration flights might have a greater risk of bone fracture as they age than the general population. A panel of experts was convened to review the information and recommend mechanisms to monitor the health of bones in astronauts. The use of Quantitative Computed Tomography (QCT) scans for risk surveillance to detect the clinical trigger and to inform countermeasure evaluation is reviewed. An added benefit of QCT is that it facilitates an individualized estimation of bone strength by Finite Element Modeling (FEM), that can inform approaches for bone rehabilitation. The use of FEM is reviewed as a process that arrives at a composite number to estimate bone strength, because it integrates multiple factors.
Sibonga, J. D.↗
Integration of Airborne Aerosol Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems
This slide presentation reviews the study that used a model to forecast pollen to assist in warning for asthma populations. Using MODIS daily reflectances to input to a model, PREAM, adapted from the Dust REgional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system, a product of predicted pollen is produced. Using the pollen from Juniper the PREAM model was shown to be an assist in alerting the public of pollen bursts, and reduce the health impact on asthma populations.
Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
Health Care Policy Analysis and Decision Support Using Agent Based Simulation Techniques
No abstract available
Widdis, Dan↗
Optimizing Requirements Decisions with KEYS
Recent work with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has allowed for external access to five of JPL's real-world requirements models, anonymized to conceal proprietary information, but retaining their computational nature. Experimentation with these models, reported herein, demonstrates a dramatic speedup in the computations performed on them. These models have a well defined goal: select mitigations that retire risks which, in turn, increases the number of attainable requirements. Such a non-linear optimization is a well-studied problem. However identification of not only (a) the optimal solution(s) but also (b) the key factors leading to them is less well studied. Our technique, called KEYS, shows a rapid way of simultaneously identifying the solutions and their key factors. KEYS improves on prior work by several orders of magnitude. Prior experiments with simulated annealing or treatment learning took tens of minutes to hours to terminate. KEYS runs much faster than that; e.g for one model, KEYS ran 13,000 times faster than treatment learning (40 minutes versus 0.18 seconds). Processing these JPL models is a non-linear optimization problem: the fewest mitigations must be selected while achieving the most requirements. Non-linear optimization is a well studied problem. With this paper, we challenge other members of the PROMISE community to improve on our results with other techniques.
requirements↗
Operational Parameters, Considerations, and Design Decisions for Resource-Constrained Ion Trap Mass Spectrometers
Mass spectrometers are increasingly finding applications in new and unique areas, often in situations where key operational resources (i.e. power, weight and size) are limited. One such example is the Mars Organic Molecule Analyzer (MOMA). This instrument is a joint venture between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) to develop an ion trap mass spectrometer for chemical analysis on Mars. The constraints on such an instrument are significant as are the performance requirements. While the ideal operating parameters for an ion trap are generally well characterized, methods to maintain analytical performance with limited power and system weight need to be investigated and tested. Methods Experiments have been performed on two custom ion trap mass spectrometers developed as prototypes for the MOMA instrument. This hardware consists of quadrupole ion trap electrodes that are 70% the size of common commercial instrumentation. The trapping RF voltage is created with a custom tank circuit that can be tuned over a range of RF frequencies and is driven using laboratory supplies and amplifiers. The entire instrument is controlled with custom Lab VIEW software that allows a high degree of flexibility in the definition of the scan function defining the ion trap experiment. Ions are typically generated via an internal electron ionization source, however, a laser desorption source is also in development for analysis of larger intact molecules. Preliminary Data The main goals in this work have been to reduce the power required to generate the radio frequency trapping field used in an ion trap mass spectrometer. Generally minimizing the power will also reduce the volume and mass of the electronics to support the instrument. In order to achieve optimum performance, commercial instruments typically utilize RF frequencies in the 1 MHz range. Without much concern for power usage, they simply generate the voltage required to access the mass range of interest. In order to reduce the required RF voltage (and power), operation of the ion trap at lower RF frequencies has been investigated. Surprisingly, the performance of the instrument has only been slightly degraded at RF frequencies all the way down to 500 kHz. Mass resolution is relatively stable to this point and depending on the resonant ejection point used, the peak intensity is also quite stable. To date only masses up to m/z 200 have been fully investigated, however, additional studies are planned to verify the performance with higher mass ions. The lower frequency and voltage should reduce the pseudo potential well depth, eventually affecting the trapping efficiency of the instrument -- effect that could manifest itself in significantly limiting the mass range of trapped ions. Other methods to reduce the RF power while maintaining analytical performance are also under investigation. This includes ion ejection at lower q(sub z) values to access a given mass with a lower RF voltage. The loss of mass resolution at lower q(sub eject) points has been measured and current work is underway to leverage scan speed and the use of non-linear resonances in order to counter this trend. The overall trap performance under this range of operating conditions will be presented with a goal of identifying what trade-offs are acceptable.
Danell, Ryan M.↗
NASA Earth Science Image Analysis for Climate Change Decisions
This talk will briefly outline the ways in which NASA observes the Earth, then describes the NASA satellite measurements, and then proceeds to show how these measurements are used to understand the changes that are occurring as Earth's climate warms.
Hilderbrand, Peter H.↗