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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

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NASA NTRS1993

New parameterizations and sensitivities for simple climate models

This paper presents a reexamination of the earth radiation budget parameterization of energy balance climate models in light of data collected over the last 12 years. The study consists of three parts: (1) an examination of the infrared terrestrial radiation to space and its relationship to the surface temperature field on time scales from 1 month to 10 years; (2) an examination of the albedo of the earth with special attention to the seasonal cycle of snow and clouds; (3) solutions for the seasonal cycle using the new parameterizations with special attention to changes in sensitivity. While the infrared parameterization is not dramatically different from that used in the past, the albedo in the new data suggest that a stronger latitude dependence be employed. After retuning the diffusion coefficient the simulation results for the present climate generally show only a slight dependence on the new parameters. Also, the sensitivity parameter for the model is still about the same (1.25 C for a 1 percent increase of solar constant) for the linear models and for the nonlinear models that include a seasonal snow line albedo feedback (1.34 C). One interesting feature is that a clear-sky planet with a snow line albedo feedback has a significantly higher sensitivity (2.57 C) due to the absence of smoothing normally occurring in the presence of average cloud cover.

Graves, Charles E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.12 User's Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.13 User's Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user’s manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.15 User's Manual

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updates to the NuMI Flux Simulation at MicroBooNE (V.1.0)

The NuMI flux prediction being used by all experiments at Fermilab that are sensitive to the NuMI beam is based on Geant v4.9.2.03 (G4.9) and uses the default FTFP-BERT physics list with no custom cross sections. In order to correct these predictions to match world data, PPFX, the Package to Predict the FluX, is used to reweight the flux prediction. In kinematic regions of overlap between the prediction and data, mainly NA49 measurements are used to correct for various hadron production processes. Specifcally, PPFX looks at the entire ancestry chain of the neutrino, up to the incident 120 GeV proton beam, and applies corrections for various hadron interactions based on said data. These corrections are implemented as a function of the Feynman-x (x F ) and transverse momentum (p T ) of the incident hadron.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Sensitivity of gas filter correlation instrument to variations in optical balance

A computer program was used to simulate the response of the Gas Filter Correlation Radiometer (GFCR) to changing pollutant levels of CO, SO2, CH4, and NH3 in two model atmospheres. Positive and negative deviations of tau sub alpha of magnitudes 0.01, 0.1, and 1 percent were imposed upon the simulation and the resulting deviations in inferred concentrations were determined. For the CO, CH4, and the higher pressure cell of the NH3 channel, the deviations are less than + or - 12 percent for deviations in tau sub alpha of + or - 0.1 percent, but increase to significantly higher values for larger deviations. For the lower pressure cell of NH3 and for SO2, the deviations in inferred concentration begin to rise sharply between 0.01 and 0.1 percent deviation in tau sub alpha, suggesting that a tighter control on tau sub alpha may be required for these channels.

Orr, H. D., III↗

NASA NTRS2011

Tropospheric Ozone Profiling Using Simulated GEO-CAPE Measurement

Multi-spectral retrievals (UV+VIS, UV+TIR, UV+VIS+TIR) improve sensitivity to the variability in near-surface O3 by a factor of 2 - 2.7 over those from UV or TIR alone. Multi-spectral retrievals provide the largest benefit when there is enhanced O3 near the surface. Combining all 3 wavelengths (UV+VIS+TIR) provides the greatest sensitivity below 850 hPa, with a 36% improvement over UV+VIS and a 17% improvement over UV+TIR. The impacts of clouds and aerosols are being assessed.

human versus natural sources↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Simulation of on-orbit maintenance cycle for LST

A maintenance simulation model of the Large Space Telescope has been developed to assess the operational cost sensitivity to system configuration options. The model lends itself to equipment-level selections for various subsystem alternatives. Maintenance decisions include considerations for LST spacecraft on-orbit service or retrieval. Tradeoffs are identified in terms of on-orbit maintenance for specific design concepts, with Space Shuttle revisit costs balanced against retrieval and ground-facility operations. Simulation output is in the form of computer plots of cost, availability, time to first maintenance, and a cost-effective Shuttle revisit frequency.

Donnelly, J. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Forward Analytic Model of Neutron Time-of-Flight Signals for Inferring Ion Temperatures from MagLIF Experiments

A forward analytic model is required to rapidly simulate the neutron time-of-flight (nToF) signals that result from magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments at Sandia’s Z Pulsed Power Facility. Various experimental parameters, such as the burn-weighted fuel-ion temperature and liner areal density, determine the shape of the nToF signal and are important for characterizing any given MagLIF experiment. Extracting these parameters from measured nToF signals requires an appropriate analytic model that includes the primary deuterium-deuterium neutron peak, once-scattered neutrons in the beryllium liner of the MagLIF target, and direct beamline attenuation. Here, mathematical expressions for this model were derived from the general-geometry time- and energy-dependent neutron transport equation with anisotropic scattering. Assumptions consistent with the time-of-flight technique were used to simplify this linear Boltzmann transport equation into a more tractable form. Models of the uncollided and once-collided neutron scalar fluxes were developed for one of the five nToF detector locations at the Z-Machine. Numerical results from these models were produced for a representative MagLIF problem and found to be in good agreement with similar neutron transport simulations. Twenty experimental MagLIF data sets were analyzed using the forward models, which were determined to only be significantly sensitive to the ion temperature. The results of this work were also found to agree with values obtained separately using a zero scatter analytic model and a high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, inherent difficulties in this and similar techniques are identified, and a new approach forward is suggested.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Precipitation Bias Sensitivities in E3SM-Multi-Scale Modeling Framework From a Dilution Framework

We investigate a set of Energy Exascale Earth System Model Multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) (E3SM-MMF) simulations that vary the dimensionality and momentum transport configurations of the embedded cloud-resolving models (CRMs), including unusually ambitious 3D configurations. Issues endemic to all MMF simulations include too much Intertropical Convergence Zone rainfall and too little over the Amazon. Systematic MMF improvements include more on-equatorial rainfall across the Warm Pool. Interesting sensitivities to the CRM domain are found in the regional time-mean precipitation pattern over the tropics. The 2D E3SM-MMF produces an unrealistically rainy region over the northwestern tropical Pacific; this is reduced in computationally ambitious 3D configurations that use 1,024 embedded CRM grid columns per host cell. Trajectory analysis indicates that these regional improvements are associated with desirably fewer tropical cyclones and less extreme precipitation rates. To understand why and how the representation of precipitation improved in 3D, we propose a framework that dilution is stronger in 3D. This viewpoint is supported by multiple indirect lines of evidence, including a delayed moisture-precipitation pickup, smaller precipitation efficiency, and amplified convective mass flux profiles and more high clouds. We also demonstrate that the effects of varying embedded CRM dimensionality and momentum transport on precipitation can be identified during the first few simulated days, providing an opportunity for rapid model tuning without high computational cost. Meanwhile the results imply that other less computationally intensive ways to enhance dilution within MMF CRMs may also be strategic tuning targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design of high-pressure iron Rayleigh–Taylor strength experiments for the National Ignition Facility

Iron is an important metal, scientifically and technologically. It is a common metal on Earth, forming the main constituent of the planet's inner core, where it is believed to be in solid state at high pressure and high temperature. It is also the main component of many important structural materials used in quasistatic and dynamic conditions. Laser-driven Rayleigh–Taylor instability provides a means of probing material strength at high pressure and high temperature. The unavoidable phase transition in iron at relatively low pressure induces microstructural changes that ultimately affect its strength in this extreme regime. This inevitable progression can make it difficult to design experiments and understand their results. Here, we address this challenge with the introduction of a new approach: a direct-drive design for Rayleigh–Taylor strength experiments capable of reaching up to 400 GPa over a broad range of temperatures. We use 1D and 2D hydrodynamic simulations to optimize target components and laser pulse shape to induce the phase transition and compress the iron to high pressure and high temperature. At the simulated pressure–temperature state of 350 GPa and 4000 K, we predict a ripple growth factor of 3–10 depending on the strength with minimal sensitivity to the equation of state model used. The growth factor is the primary observable, and the measured value will be compared to simulations to enable the extraction of the strength under these conditions. These experiments conducted at high-energy laser facilities will provide a unique way to study an important metal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2003

Effects of Buoyancy and Forcing on Transitioning and Turbulent Lifted Flames

The objectives of this paper are two-fold. First, a numerical scheme for the simulation of a buoyant, reacting jet is presented with special attention given to boundary conditions. In the absence of coflow, a jet flame is particularly sensitive to boundary conditions enforced upon the computational domain. However, careful consideration of proper boundary conditions can minimize their effect upon the overall simulation. Second, results of some preliminary simulations are presented over a range of Froude and Damkohler numbers. This range was chosen so as to produce lifted flames in both normal gravity and microgravity environments.

Kosaly, George↗

DOE OSTI2022

A fragmentation approach to jet flavor

An intuitive definition of the partonic flavor of a jet in quantum chromodynamics is often only well-defined in the deep ultraviolet, where the strong force becomes a free theory and a jet consists of a single parton. However, measurements are performed in the infrared, where a jet consists of numerous particles and requires an algorithmic procedure to define their phase space boundaries. To connect these two regimes, we introduce a novel and simple partonic jet flavor definition in the infrared. We define the jet flavor to be the net flavor of the partons that lie exactly along the direction of the Winner-Take-All recombination scheme axis of the jet, which is safe to all orders under emissions of soft particles, but is not collinear safe. Collinear divergences can be absorbed into a perturbative fragmentation function that describes the evolution of the jet flavor from the ultraviolet to the infrared. The evolution equations are linear and a small modification to traditional DGLAP and we solve them to leading-logarithmic accuracy. The evolution equations exhibit fixed points in the deep infrared, we demonstrate quantitative agreement with parton shower simulations, and we present various infrared and collinear safe observables that are sensitive to this flavor definition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tamped Richtmyer–Meshkov Instability Experiments to Probe High-Pressure Material Strength

Abstract Dynamic interface instabilities such as Rayleigh–Taylor, Kelvin–Helmholtz, and Richtmyer–Meshkov are important in a number of physical phenomena. Besides meriting study because of their role in natural events and man-made applications, they can also be used to study constitutive properties of materials in extreme conditions. Both RTI and RMI configurations have been used to study the strength of solids at high strain rates, though RMI has largely been limited to zero or ambient pressure. Recently, advances in imaging have allowed tamped RMI experiments to be performed in which the pressure is maintained above ambient. In this study, we examine the tamped RMI for determining material strength. Through simulation, we explore the behavior of the jetting material and examine the sensitivity of jetting to material properties. We identify simple scaling laws that relate the key physical parameters controlling jetting, which are compared to previous results from the literature. We use these scaling law and other considerations to examine issues associated with tamped RMI experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A physics-based parametric regression approach for feedwater pump system diagnosis

Here in this paper, we assessed the performance of a model-based approach for fault diagnosis of a nuclear power plant feedwater pump system. Physics-based models were constructed to monitor the performance of the system components. Plant data were used for the calibration of the models and subsequently in the diagnosis of abnormal events. We considered two real-time events representing scenarios of a pump fault and component performance degradation. The two events were correctly diagnosed, and the results demonstrated the high detection sensitivity of the physics-based models. Various sensor fault scenarios were simulated to show the capability of the approach to detect and uniquely identify sensor faults. Results for a scenario in which the plant operated in flexible power mode also showed that the diagnostic approach is insensitive to changes of operating conditions, which is one of the advantages of the model-based approach using physics-based models over purely data-driven approach.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improvement of the $\mathrm{BISON U_3Si_2}$ modeling capabilities based on multiscale developments to modeling fission gas behavior

Uranium silicide (U 3 Si 2 ) is a concept explored as a potential alternative to UO 2 fuel used in light water reactors (LWRs) since it may improve accident tolerance and economics due to its higher thermal conductivity and increased uranium density. U 3 Si 2 has been previously used in research reactors in the form of dispersion fuel, but operated at lower temperatures than commercial LWRs. The research reactor data illustrated that significant gaseous swelling occurs as the fuel burnup increases. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under higher temperature LWR operating conditions. In this work, molecular dynamics and phase-field modeling techniques are used to reduce the uncertainty in select modeling assumptions made in developing the fission gas behavior model for U 3 Si 2 in the BISON fuel performance code. These lower length scale informed models are then utilized in the validation of BISON U 3 Si 2 modeling capabilities to simulate the ATF-1 experiments irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). Sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are included as part of the validation process to identify where further experiments and lower length scale modeling would be beneficial. Here, the multiscale modeling approach utilized in this work can be applied to new fuel concepts being explored for both LWRs and advanced reactors (e.g., uranium nitride, uranium carbide).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗