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NASA NTRS2021

Atmospheric River Precipitation Contributed to Rapid Increases in Surface Height of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in 2019

Estimating the relative contributions of the atmospheric and dynamic components of ice-sheet mass balance is critical for improving projections of future sea level rise. Existing estimates of changes in Antarctic ice-sheet height, which can be used to infer changes in mass, are only accurate at multiyear time scales. However, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry mission now allows us to accurately measure changes in ice-sheet height at subannual time scales. Here, we use ICESat-2 data to estimate height changes over Antarctica between April 2019 and June 2020. These data show widespread increases in surface height over West Antarctica during the 2019 austral winter. Using climate reanalysis data, we show that 41% of increases in height during winter were from snow accumulation via extreme precipitation events—63% of these events were associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) which occurred only 5.1% of the time.

Susheel Adusumilli↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Abnormally Hot June 2021 in the Western U.S.: A MERRA-2 perspective

An extreme heat wave occurred over much of the western US and Canada in late June 2021. We use daily and monthly near-surface temperature from MERRA-2 Reanalysis to compare the hot conditions of this year with the previous 40 years, particularly over the northwestern US that was severely affected.

T2m↗
NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of Near-Cloud Changes in Atmospheric Aerosols Using Satellite Observations and Global Model Simulations

This paper examines cloud-related variations of atmospheric aerosols that occur in partly cloudy regions containing low-altitude clouds. The goal is to better understand aerosol behaviors and to help better represent the radiative effects of aerosols on climate. For this, the paper presents a statistical analysis of a multi-month global dataset that combines data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite instruments with data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) global reanalysis. Among other findings, the results reveal that near-cloud enhancements in lidar backscatter (closely related to aerosol optical depth) are larger (1) over land than ocean by 35%, (2) near optically thicker clouds by substantial amounts, (3) for sea salt than for other aerosol types, with the difference from dust reaching 50%. Finally, the study found that mean lidar backscatter is higher near clouds not because of large-scale variations in meteorological conditions, but because of local processes associated with individual clouds. The results help improve our understanding of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and our ability to represent them in climate models and other atmospheric models

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2021

Assessment of Tropospheric Concentrations of NO2 from the TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor for the Estimation of Long-Term Exposure to Surface NO2 over South Korea

Since April 2018, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) has provided data on tropospheric NO2 column concentrations (CTROPOMI) with unprecedented spatial resolution. This study aims to assess the capability of TROPOMI to acquire high spatial resolution data regarding surface NO2 mixing ratios. In general, the instrument effectively detected major and moderate sources of NO2 over South Korea with a clear weekday–weekend distinction. We compared the CTROPOMI with surface NO2 mixing ratio measurements from an extensive ground-based network over South Korea operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (SKME; more than 570 sites), for 2019. Spatiotemporally collocated CTROPOMI and SKME showed a moderate correlation (correlation coefficient, r = 0.67), whereas their annual mean values at each site showed a higher correlation (r = 0.84). The CTROPOMI and SKME were well correlated around the Seoul metropolitan area, where significant amounts of NO2 prevailed throughout the year, whereas they showed lower correlation at rural sites. We converted the tropospheric NO2 from TROPOMI to the surface mixing ratio (STROPOMI) using the EAC4 (ECMWF Atmospheric Composition Reanalysis 4) profile shape, for quantitative comparison with the SKME. The estimated STROPOMI generally underestimated the in-situ value obtained, SKME (slope = 0.64), as reported in previous studies.

TROPOMI↗
NASA NTRS2021

Identifying Meteorological Influences on Marine Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology Using Satellite Classifications

Marine low cloud mesoscale morphology in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is analyzed using a large dataset of machine-learning generated classifications spanning three years. Meteorological variables and cloud properties are composited 10by mesoscale cloud type, showing distinct meteorological regimes of marine low cloud organization from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The presentation of mesoscale cellular convection, with respect to geographic distribution, boundary layer structure, and large-scale environmental conditions, agrees with prior knowledge. Two tropical and subtropical cumuliform boundary layer regimes, suppressed cumulus and clustered cumulus, are studied in detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the representation of marine shallow mesoscale convective 15 self-aggregation by large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud types are found to be well-separated by variables associated with low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Clustered regimes are associated with surface convergence and suppressed regimes are associated with surface divergence.

Johannes Mohrmann↗
NASA NTRS2021

Passive Microwave Signatures and Retrieval of High-Latitude Snowfall Over Open Oceans and Sea Ice: Insights From Coincidences of GPM and CloudSat Satellites

This article studies changes in microwave signals of oceanic snowfall in response to the formation of snow-covered sea ice using active and passive coincident data from the radar and radiometer onboard the CloudSat and the global precipitation measurement satellites. Using reanalysis data of liquid and ice water path as well as satellite retrievals of sea ice snow-cover depth, spectral regions are determined over which the snowfall signatures are likely to be obscured or falsely detected. Relying on an a priori database populated with the active–passive coincidences, a Bayesian snowfall retrieval algorithm is presented that links a k -nearest neighbor matching with the inverse Gaussian estimator used in the Goddard profiling algorithm. Without relying on any ancillary data of air temperature, the results demonstrate that over open oceans (sea ice), we can passively retrieve the CloudSat active snowfalls with a true positive rate of 92 (85%) and the root mean squared error of 0.24 (0.15) mm per h.

Sajad Vahedizade↗
NASA NTRS2022

Automatic variable selection in ecological niche modeling: A case study using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii)

MERRA/Max provides a feature selection approach to dimensionality reduction that enables direct use of global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling. The system accomplishes this reduction through a Monte Carlo optimization in which many independent MaxEnt runs, operating on a species occurrence file and a small set of randomly selected variables in a large collection of variables, converge on an estimate of the top contributing predictors in the larger collection. These top predictors can be viewed as potential candidates in the variable selection step of the ecological niche modeling process. MERRA/Max’s Monte Carlo algorithm operates on files stored in the underlying filesystem, making it scalable to large data sets. Its software components can run as parallel processes in a high-performance cloud computing environment to yield near real-time performance. In tests using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii) as the target species, MERRA/Max selected a set of predictors from Worldclim’s Bioclim collection of 19 environmental variables that have been shown to be important determinants of the species’ bioclimatic niche. It also selected biologically and ecologically plausible predictors from a more diverse set of 86 environmental variables derived from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, an output product of the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system. We believe these results point to a technological approach that could expand the use global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling, foster exploratory experimentation with otherwise difficult-to-use climate data sets, streamline the modeling process, and, eventually, enable automated bioclimatic modeling as a practical, readily accessible, low-cost, commercial cloud service.

John L. Schnase↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Rainfall-Snowfall Separation Performance in Remote Sensing Datasets

The first step to accurately measure global snowfall is to separate rainfall from snowfall correctly (i.e., precipitation phase discrimination). This study first evaluates the phase discrimination performance in four remote sensing datasets, including observations from ground radar, spaceborne radars, and spaceborne radiometer, relative to ground observations. Results show that the snowfall discrimination accuracy varies greatly among these datasets ranging from 42% to 96%, dependent on whether and how the temperature information are considered. For example, over half of the snowfall from the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) spaceborne radar is actually rainfall at the surface since it detects snowfall in the air without considering the temperature information close to the surface. Second, we evaluate the discrimination performance using the temperature information from four reanalysis datasets. It is found that MERRA2 temperature close to the surface is colder than the other three datasets, leading to more rainfall being misclassified as snowfall.

Yalei You↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Simulation and Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables: Insights from a Simple Water Balance Model

Past work has shown that a land surface model’s (LSM’s) implicit (not explicitly coded) relationships between soil moisture and both evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff largely determine the LSM’s hydrological behavior. Here we estimate the relationships that appear to be operating in the real world and compare them to those of the LSM component of a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM). The two sets of relationships are determined by calibrating them within a simple water balance model (WBM): once using stream gauge observations from small, unregulated rivers over the eastern half of the U.S., and once using the runoffs generated by the LSM as part of a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis. Hydrological simulations and subseasonal hydrological forecasts performed with the two calibrated versions of the WBM provide two key results. First, the version calibrated to the LSM-generated runoffs does successfully reproduce, to first order, the hydrological behavior of the full LSM within its ESM environment. Second, of the two WBM versions, the one calibrated to the observations reproduces more accurately a broad collection of fully independent streamflow observations as well as a similarly broad collection of in-situ soil moisture measurements. Taken together, the two results suggest that the observations-calibrated ET and runoff efficiency functions do successfully represent, at least to some degree, soil moisture controls over hydrological variability in Nature and can serve as potentially useful targets for further LSM development.

Water Balance Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observation of Stratospheric Intrusions and Ozone Transport using CrIS SiFSAP Products

The Single Field of View (SFOV) ozone (O3) profiles derived from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) onboard Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP), with a high horizontal resolution of approximately 14 km at nadir and good sensitivity to O3 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), provide a prominent opportunity to examine stratosphere to troposphere (STT) transport. A process-oriented analysis was performed to examine the fine-scale features of a stratospheric intrusion (SI) event on June 11-13, 2017 in the southwestern US using the CrIS SFOV products together with wind and potential velocity (PV) from models. It was found that the location and strength of O3 enhancement correlate well with the PV contours, and the intrusion depth can be characterized using the vertical cross-sections of O3 and relative humidity (RH). In addition, the capability to use total column ozone (TCO) to identify SI events was confirmed through analysis of TCO from CrIS SFOV and other satellite and reanalysis products. The ozone/PV ratio was derived using SFOV O3 and model PV, and the values, ranging from 23.2 to 35.8 ppbv PVU-1 (1 PV unit (PVU) = 10-6 km2 kg-1 s-1), are in the lower end of previous estimations. These results demonstrate the advantages of the SFOV products in monitoring the fine-scale ozone transport and thermodynamic structure of SI events, as well as their potential value for weather and climate study.

Xiaozhen Xiong↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Uncertainties and Variability 34 Years of Surface Radiative Fluxes Using GEWEX SRB Release4-IP

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces 3-hrly shortwave and longwave surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes for the 1983-near present time period. The new Release 4 Integrated Product (IP) uses the newly recalibrated and processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data, replacing ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10 km instead of 30 km). This first version retains a 1°x1° resolution enabling intercomparison against previous versions and other data sets such as CERES, but spans 34 years from July 1983 through June 2017 and was announced by Kummerow et al. 2019 (GEWEX News). This new IP product also uses an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS and other parameters such as near surface and skin temperatures from SeaFlux and LandFlux data sets. In addition to the input data improvements, several important algorithm improvements have been made since Release 3. These include recalculated SW atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities, updated ocean and snow/ice albedos, and variable total solar irradiance consistent with SORCE measurements. The LW code has been updated to improve the optical property treatment for clouds and aerosols are included in this version. Radiative treatment of ice clouds is also improved in the LW. The variable aerosol optical properties for the SW and LW are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC). Here we present an assessment of the LW radiative fluxes and the uncertainty of those fluxes relative to the various inputs to surface SW/LW flux measurements from BSRN and PMEL buoys measurements. We review the validation of the SW and LW fluxes and then in terms of time series and then assess the products in terms of their long-term variability of the surface SW and LW net fluxes compared to multiple other data products including atmospheric reanalysis products. The comparisons of radiative estimates to observations are performed at various temporal scales and aimed at investigation of agreement at longer time averages but accessing potential change in diurnal magnitude and daily variability. Utilizing this uncertainty information, to access long-term variability of surface radiation components at selected region and global scales, considering satellite sampling/calibration “artifacts” as necessary. At the longer time scales, the net SW and net LW the TOA and surface have implications toward closure of the energy budgets at the surface, we assess these compared to other studies on energy budget closure for the same selected global and regional scales.

Paul W Stackhouse↗
NASA NTRS2021

Gravity Wave Weakening During the 2019 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming

A rare Antarctic stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) occurred on August 30, 2019, and was a minor warming event. We investigated variations in gravity wave (GW) activity before and after this Antarctic SSW event using two satellite measurements (AIRS and CIPS) and reanalysis data (GEOS-5 FP). GW activity over the Andes decreased after August 30, although the westerly wind was 40–60 m/s and cannot filter out GWs with small zonal phase speed. This decline over the Andes was probably caused by wave saturation. Zonal mean GW activity over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean likewise decreased, with a weakening of zonal wind. The zonal mean GW activity further decreased around September 8 which coincided with a reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind at 40 km. The decline in the zonal mean GW activity after August 30 was probably caused by wind filtering and polar night jet breaking.

Gravity waves↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗
NASA NTRS2022

TESS Revisits WASP-12: Updated Orbital Decay Rate and Constraints on Atmospheric Variability

After observing WASP-12 in the second year of the primary mission, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) revisited the system in late 2021 during its extended mission. In this paper, we incorporate the new TESS photometry into a reanalysis of the transits, secondary eclipses, and phase curve. We also present a new Ks-band occultation observation of WASP-12b obtained with the Palomar/Wide-field Infrared Camera instrument. The latest TESS photometry spans three consecutive months, quadrupling the total length of the TESS WASP-12 light curve and extending the overall time baseline by almost two years. Based on the full set of available transit and occultation timings, we find that the orbital period is shrinking at a rate of −29.81 ± 0.94 ms yr−1. The additional data also increase the measurement precision of the transit depth, orbital parameters, and phase-curve amplitudes. We obtain a secondary eclipse depth of 466 ± 35 ppm, a 2σ upper limit on the nightside brightness of 70 ppm, and a marginal 6°.2 ± 2°.8 eastward offset between the dayside hotspot and the substellar point. The voluminous TESS data set allows us to assess the level of atmospheric variability on timescales of days, months, and years. We do not detect any statistically significant modulations in the secondary eclipse depth or day–night brightness contrast. Likewise, our measured Ks-band occultation depth of 2810 ± 390 ppm is consistent with most ∼2.2 μm observations in the literature.

Ian Wong↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of CrIS Ozone and Carbon Oxide Products from CrIS Single-Field-of-View Retrievals

Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP) from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on S-NPP have been developed at NASA Langley Research center, and recently a significant improvement in its trace gases products has been made. These products are derived based on the Principal Component (PC)-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) and an optimal estimation retrieval method (PCRTM-RA). Use of the PCRTM in this method allows for fast and accurate calculations for thousands of spectral channels under clear and cloudy sky conditions. The use of principal component to compress information from all spectral channels into the PC domain enables to reduce the observational noise and use the information from all hyperspectral infrared channels. The retrieval is made on PC-domain, and temperature, water vapor, trace gases, cloud and surface parameters are retrieved simultaneously. This presentation will present some validation to the SiFSAP ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) products. Since the SiFSAP has a spatial resolution of about 14 km at nadir, which is better than most global weather and climate models and enables to make process-oriented analysis of the transport of these gases, this study will focus on validation of CO and O3 products under some extreme weather and/or climate events, such as CO emission and transport from large biomass burning, and O3 variation impacted by fire emission, stratospheric intrusion, and tropical cyclones. Data used in our validation include CO and O3 from NASA aircraft campaigns, plus other satellite products such as CO and O3 from AIRS, IASI and TROPOMI, MOPPIT CO and OMPS O3. Some comparison of SiFSAP O3 with the O3 from the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will also present. Such a validation not only helps to quantify the performance of the retrievals in these extreme conditions, but also displays the capability of satellite observation to capture the fine-scale spatial pattern of CO and O3 variation.

Xiaozhen Xiong↗
NASA NTRS2022

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Evaluation of Biomass Burning Aerosol Mass, Extinction, and Size Distribution in Geos Using Observations From Camp2EX

Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and Earth system through radiative forcing, serving as cloud condensation nuclei, and air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth observations at 550 nm to constrain aerosol fields. Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer, relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulphate and nitrate aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aside from aerosol mass, extinction within GEOS is a function of ambient relative humidity and an assumed particle size distribution. The relationship between dry and ambient extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too aggressive within the model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module with GEOS may be necessary.

Aerosol Mass↗
NASA NTRS2022

Vulnerability of Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals to Physical Properties of Snowpack: A Perspective from Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory

The uncertainty of passive microwave retrievals of snowfall is notoriously high where the high-frequency surface emissivity is significantly reduced and varies markedly in response to changes of snowpack physical properties. Using the dense media radiative transfer theory, this article studies the potential effects of terrestrial snow-cover depth, density, and6grain size on high-frequency channels 89 and 166 GHz of the radiometer onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite, which are commonly used to capture the snowfall scattering signals. Integrating the inference across all feasible grain sizes, ranges of snowpack density and depth are identified over which the snowfall scattering signatures can be time varying and potentially obscured. Using 10 years of reanalysis data, the seasonal vulnerability of snowfall retrievals to changes of snowpack emissivity in the Northern Hemisphere is mapped in a probabilistic sense and connections are made with uncertainties of the GPM passive microwave snowfall retrievals. It is found that among different snow classes, relatively light Arctic tundra snow in fall, with a density below 260kg m−3, and shallow prairie snow during the winter, with a depth of less than 40cm, can reduce the surface emissivity and obscure the snowfall passive microwave signatures. It is demonstrated that, during the winter, the highly vulnerable areas are over Kazakhstan, and Mongolia with taiga and prairie snow. In the fall, these areas are largely over tundra and taiga snow in north of Russia and the Arctic Archipelagos as well as prairies in Canada and the Great Plains in the United States.

Reyhaneh Rahimi↗