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Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗

Lagrangian mixed layer modeling of the western equatorial Pacific

Processes that control the upper ocean thermohaline structure in the western equatorial Pacific are examined using a Lagrangian mixed layer model. The one-dimensional bulk mixed layer model of Garwood (1977) is integrated along the trajectories derived from a nonlinear 1 1/2 layer reduced gravity model forced with actual wind fields. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data are used to estimate surface freshwater fluxes for the mixed layer model. The wind stress data which forced the 1 1/2 layer model are used for the mixed layer model. The model was run for the period 1987-1988. This simple model is able to simulate the isothermal layer below the mixed layer in the western Pacific warm pool and its variation. The subduction mechanism hypothesized by Lukas and Lindstrom (1991) is evident in the model results. During periods of strong South Equatorial Current, the warm and salty mixed layer waters in the central Pacific are subducted below the fresh shallow mixed layer in the western Pacific. However, this subduction mechanism is not evident when upwelling Rossby waves reach the western equatorial Pacific or when a prominent deepening of the mixed layer occurs in the western equatorial Pacific or when a prominent deepening of the mixed layer occurs in the western equatorial Pacific due to episodes of strong wind and light precipitation associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Comparison of the results between the Lagrangian mixed layer model and a locally forced Eulerian mixed layer model indicated that horizontal advection of salty waters from the central Pacific strongly affects the upper ocean salinity variation in the western Pacific, and that this advection is necessary to maintain the upper ocean thermohaline structure in this region.

Shinoda, Toshiaki↗

High resolution evidence for the Garrett-Munk spectrum of stratospheric gravity waves

Vertical profiles of scalar horizontal winds have been measured at high resolution (10 m) in the 13 to 37 km region of the stratosphere. This resolution (at that range of altitude) represents the state-of-the-art, and is unique. The technique used smoke trails laid by rockets in the stratosphere, and were taken by AFGL at Wallops Island, VA, White Sands Missile Range, NM, and Ft. Churchill, Canada, in the 1977-78 time period. Two or three cameras were used to give the time-lapse photographs. The goal was to ascertain whether or not the internal waves of the stratosphere behave consistently with the Garrett-Munk model which was originally created for oceanic internal waves. Five profiles of horizontal wind are presented. It is concluded: (1) stratospheric internal waves obey the Garrett-Munk model for vertical wave numbers; (2) there is not statistically significant evidence for a break in the curve at high wave numbers when due allowance is made for aliasing effects; and (3) the power density level of the spectra are almost equal on a log-log scale in spite of the difference in time, season, and geographical location.

Dewan, E. M.↗

Vertical ocean loading amplitudes from VLBI measurements

Vertical ocean loading amplitudes are determined by analysis of IRIS geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data. The 4 nearly diurnal (K(sub 1), P(sub 1), O(sub 1), Q(sub 1)) and 4 nearly semidiurnal (K(sub 2), S(sub 2), M(sub 2), and N(sub 2)) component amplitudes can be inferred from the data with accuracies of 1-2 mm. Uncertainties of total displacements can approach 1 cm. Empirically determined total displacements are considerably larger than the values calculated from two geophysical models. The Scherneck model is found to give a better representation of VLBI delay data than the model of Pagiatakis by about 3 mm in residuals at 6 sites. Empirical estimation of the ocean loading amplitudes reduces Chi squared by 3067 for the 96 additional degrees of freedom in a fit to 273,000 IRIS VLBI observations, and reduces the RMS residuals by 3 mm relative to a fit using the fixed Scherneck model. Vertical ocean loading amplitudes can thus be inferred from VLBI data at a level which improves the overall model, but detailed assessment of individual tidal components is presently obscured by incomplete modeling at the tidal frequencies.

Sovers, O. J.↗

Impacts of Mean State Ocean Heat Transport on Climate and Its Response to CO 2 Forcing

Simulations of the slab ocean configuration of the coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) were used to isolate the role of poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) in shaping the climate and its response to CO 2 forcing. Imposed changes to mean-state OHT produce compensating changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) that are mediated by changes in surface evaporation. A reduction of maximum OHT by 0.56 PW (32%) reduces the global mean surface air temperature by 3.6°C. However, this cooler mean state exhibits 1.2°C more warming under CO 2 quadrupling, with the largest differences occurring at high latitudes. The amplified warming arises from stronger surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks in polar regions and a shortwave cloud feedback in the southern midlatitudes. These results highlight the critical role of mean-state OHT in modulating mean-state climate, the partitioning between the OHT and AHT, and climate sensitivity.

Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions↗

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗

Using 3-D Numerical Weather Data in Piloted Simulations

This report describes the process of acquiring and using 3-D numerical model weather data sets in NASA Langley's Research Flight Deck (RFD). A set of software tools implement the process and can be used for other purposes as well. Given time and location information of a weather phenomenon of interest, the user can download associated numerical weather model data. These data are created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, and are then processed using a set of Mathworks' Matlab(TradeMark) scripts to create the usable 3-D weather data sets. Each data set includes radar re ectivity, water vapor, component winds, temperature, supercooled liquid water, turbulence, pressure, altitude, land elevation, relative humidity, and water phases. An open-source data processing program, wgrib2, is available from NOAA online, and is used along with Matlab scripts. These scripts are described with sucient detail to make future modi cations. These software tools have been used to generate 3-D weather data for various RFD experiments.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗

Eastern Equatorial Pacific Warming Delayed By Aerosols and Thermostat Response to Co2 Increase

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here, we use a range of CMIP6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and corresponding Walker circulation. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat (OT), followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively stronger establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a strong predictor for the future EP pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model trend. The likely explanation is that the recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects and a potential OT-related delay, while the EP warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

Direct numerical simulations of stably-stratified sheared turbulence: Implications for oceanic mixing

Direct numerical simulations of the time evolution of homogeneous stably stratified turbulent shear flows have been performed for several Richardson numbers Ri and Reynolds numbers R(sub lambda) in earlier works. The results show excellent agreement with length scale models developed from laboratory experiments to characterize oceanic turbulence. When the Richardson number Ri is less than the stationary value Ri(sub s), the turbulence intensity grows at all scales, and the growth rate appears to be a function of Ri. The size of the vertical density inversions also increases. On the other hand, when Ri is greater than or equal to Ri(sub s) the largest turbulent eddies become vertically constrained by buoyancy when the Ellison (turbulence) scale L(sub E) and the Ozmidov (buoyancy) scale L(sub O) are equal. At this point, the mixing efficiency is maximal and corresponds to a flux Richardson number R(sub f) = 0.20. The vertical mass flux becomes counter-gradient when epsilon = 19(nu)N(exp 2) and vertical density overturns are suppressed in less than half a Brunt-Vaisala period. The results of the simulations were also recast in terms of the Hydrodynamic Phase Diagram introduced in fossil turbulence models. The so-called point of fossilization occurs when epsilon = 4DCN(exp 2); Gibson proposed 13DCN(exp 2). This value is in agreement with indirect laboratory observations and field observations. Finally, the validity of the steady-state models to estimate vertical eddy diffusivities in the oceanic thermocline is discussed.

Itsweire, E. C.↗

The effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing on climate

In order to isolate the effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) on climate, the general circulation of an ocean-covered earth called 'Seaworld' was simulated using the Colorado State University GCM. Most current climate models, however, do not include an interactive ocean. The key simplifications in 'Seaworld' are the fixed boundary temperature with no land points, the lack of mountains and the zonal uniformity of the boundary conditions. Two 90-day 'perpetual July' simulations were performed and analyzed the last sixty days of each. The first run included all the model's physical parameterizations, while the second omitted the effects of clouds in both the solar and terrestrial radiation parameterizations. Fixed and identical boundary temperatures were set for the two runs, and resulted in differences revealing the direct and indirect effects of the ACRF on the large-scale circulation and the parameterized hydrologic processes.

Randall, David A.↗

Chemistry of Venus’ Recent Basalts as Clues to its Ancient Past

Perhaps the most important question about Venus is whether it ever had a hydrosphere: liquid water, oceans, and thus an environment suitable for life as we know it. The D/H of Venus’ atmosphere suggests extensive water loss, and climate models may be consistent with global oceans. Rocks dating from that epoch may be preserved in Venus’ tesserae (and especially Ishtar Terra) – inferred to of felsic or silicic rock, which would suggest abundant water. However, the exact elemental compositions of tesserae (silicic or not) will be difficult to retrieve and most of Venus’ surface is basalt flows and volcanic constructs, inferred to be much younger than the oceanic epoch. Remotely sensed data are (and will be) ambiguous about the specific rock types that make up tesserae, and lander spacecraft are almost certain (in the near term) to avoid the rough and precipitous topography of the tesserae and touch down instead on flat, safe basaltic plains or volcanic rises. ‘Recent’ basalts at Venus’ surface could preserve chemical tracers of an ancient aqueous past, if their source regions (material that was re-melted) had been affected by water. This scenario occurs on Earth in Island Arc Basalts (IAB), where their compositions are thought to reflect aqueous alteration of parental midocean ridge basalts (MORB) and incorporation of oceanic sediments. Ancient Venus might have supported plate tectonic and thus have had IAB equivalents; absent plate tectonics, basalt affected by aqueous alteration could have been cycled into its mantle by burial under thick sections of later basalt. Our purpose is to suggest specific chemical clues in current basalts that would permit recognition of those with a history of aqueous interactions from those that did not. We compare Earth’s Ocean Island Basalts (OIB) that involved little water with IAB that show chemical effects ascribable to water. It is not clear that Venus’ basalts can be mapped into terrestrial tectonic settings; however, it seems reasonable that aqueous geochemical processes could have (had) similar effects on both planets.

A H Treiman↗

Provenance of the K/T boundary layers

An array of chemical, physical and isotopic evidence indicates that an impact into oceanic crust terminated the Cretaceous Period. Approximately 1500 cu km of debris, dispersed by the impact fireball, fell out globally in marine and nonmarine environments producing a 2 to 4 mm thick layer (fireball layer). In North American locales, the fireball layer overlies a 15 to 25 mm thick layer of similar but distinct composition. This 15 to 25 mm layer (ejecta layer) may represent approximately 1000 cu km of lower energy ejecta from a nearby impact site. Isotopic and chemical evidence supports a mantle provenance for the bulk of the layers. The extraordinary REE pattern of the boundary clays was modelled as a mixture of oceanic crust, mantle, and approximately 10 percent continental material. The results are presented. If the siderophiles of the ejecta layer were derived solely from the mantle, a test may be available to see if the siderophile element anomaly of the fireball layer had an extraterrestrial origin. Radiogenic Os-187 is depleted in the mantle relative to an undifferentiated chondritic source. Os-187/Os-186 ratios of 1.049 and 1.108 were calculated for the ejecta and fireball layers, respectively.

Hildebrand, A. R.↗

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

Using a laser aureole to invert lidar return

An aureole generated by a laser beam was studied. The strength of the signal redirected towards a sensor high above the surface by a combination of one scattering event in the marine boundary layer (mbl) and one single reflection event from the ocean surface was estimated. A model of mbl aerosol size distributions was used to estimate Mie scattering for a wide range of meteorolocial conditions. The sea surface reflection was determined from a Gaussian model of the wave slopes. These laser aureoles which were estimated over the wide range of conditions and were normalized by the reflected laser light were found to be highly correlated with the optical depth of the boundary layer. By estimating optical depth from the aureole, the Bernoulli-Riccati inversion of lidar return could be constrained and the inversion accuracy improved. A Monte Carlo program was developed to study the laser aureole generated by up to 8 orders of reflection and scattering. The aureole was generated by a narrow, 10 nsec laser pulse at 1.06 microns and measured by a receiver 10 km above the ocean surface. The original theoretical computation compared well with the Monte Carlo method. When multiple scattereffects were included, the normalized aureole was still highly correlated with the mbl optical depth over the range of conditions.

Hooper, W. P.↗

Theory for synthetic aperture radar imaging of the ocean surface - With application to the Tower Ocean Wave and Radar Dependence experiment on focus, resolution, and wave height spectra

A one-dimensional model for simulating azimuthal SAR imaging of the ocean surface is developed which can admit both the 'distributed surface' and 'velocity bunching' approaches. Computer simulations demonstrate that the time-dependent modulation patterns due to the radar cross section variation and the velocity bunching effects provide optimum focusing around half the phase velocity of the long wave. The results indicate that in the Tower Ocean Wave and Radar Dependence experiment, SAR imaging at L band is approximately linear.

Kasilingam, Dayalan P.↗

Constraining Remote Oxidation Capacity with ATom Observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July–August 2016 and January–February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NOy concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias with the exception of wintertime NOy, for which a model overestimate may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on seasalt aerosol but large uncertainties remain that require further studies of NOy partitioning and removal in the troposphere. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by new estimates of ocean VOC sources and additional modeled reactivity in this region would be difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOC, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in modeled acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean VOC sources in the model increases annual surface cOHRmod by 10 % and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde particularly in winter but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require a 100 Tg yr−1 source of a long-lived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land.

Travis, Katherine R.↗

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗