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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Z 2 topological order and first-order quantum phase transitions in systems with combinatorial gauge symmetry

We study a generalization of the two-dimensional transverse-field Ising model, combining both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic two-body interactions, that hosts exact global and local Z 2 gauge symmetries. Using exact diagonalization and stochastic series expansion quantum Monte Carlo methods, we confirm the existence of the topological phase in line with previous theoretical predictions. Our simulation results show that the transition between the confined topological phase and the deconfined paramagnetic phase is of first order, in contrast to the conventional Z 2 lattice gauge model in which the transition maps onto that of the standard Ising model and is continuous. We further generalize the model by replacing the transverse field on the gauge spins with a ferromagnetic X X interaction while keeping the local gauge symmetry intact. We find that the Z 2 topological phase remains stable, while the paramagnetic phase is replaced by a ferromagnetic phase. The topological-ferromagnetic quantum phase transition is also of first order. For both models, we discuss the low-energy spinon and vison excitations of the topological phase and their avoided level crossings associated with the first-order quantum phase transitions.

2-dimensional systems↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fluid hydrogen at high density - Pressure dissociation

A model for the Helmholtz free energy of fluid hydrogen at high density and high temperature is developed. This model aims at describing both pressure and temperature dissociation and ionization and bears directly on equations of state of partially ionized plasmas, as encountered in astrophysical situations and high-pressure experiments. This paper focuses on a mixture of hydrogen atoms and molecules and is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of pressure dissociation at finite temperatures. In the present model, the strong interactions are described with realistic potentials and are computed with a modified Weeks-Chandler-Andersen fluid perturbation theory that reproduces Monte Carlo simulations to better than 3 percent. Theoretical Hugoniot curves derived from the model are in excellent agreement with experimental data.

Saumon, Didier↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the spatial self-shielding impact for TRISO-based nuclear fuel depletion

Reactor physics analyses of nuclear cores with nuclear fuel concepts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles, such as pebbles or compact fuel elements, rely on various degrees of simplification to keep these highly heterogeneous problems computationally tractable. One such limitation regards the level of spatial discretization employed during burnup calculations, where traditionally only a limited number of spatial zones are modeled at the full core level and assume that the spectrum is constant within the fuel elements and TRISO particles in this depletion zone. This type of assumption neglects the impact of spatial self-shielding effect within the kernels (microscale level) as well as within the compact or pebbles (mesoscale level). Furthermore, the Monte Carlo code Serpent 2 contains many relevant features for efficiently modeling this type of geometry, including a collision-based domain decomposition intended for very large burnup calculations, which we leveraged for this work to quantify the impact of capturing neutron flux variations occurring at the micro- and mesoscale level on a series of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuel element depletion problems. While spatial self-shielding is observed at both scales, with differences from a volume-averaged burnup of ±7% within the kernels and ±2% between TRISO particles within the fuel element, the conjugated effect on nuclide inventories and multiplication factor are negligible, hence confirming that assuming a single average spectrum value may be sufficient for most applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Bremsstrahlung and energetic electrons in supernovae

Explicit Monte Carlo calculations are presented for the rate of Compton scattering and for the spectrum recoil electrons per gram at discrete depths within models of supernovae, with emphasis on the bremsstrahlung emissivity within supernova interiors. The spectrum of the bremsstrahlung emissivity is calculated at E to the -1.3 for a wide range of supernova models. The radial and temporal dependence of that emissivity is calculated for two models of SN 1987A and for one model of a Type Ia and of a He core explosion model of a Type Ib. The spectrum emerging from the surface, which is then evaluated by Monte Carlo techniques, was found to be sensitive to the photoelectric opacity and inverted by it, i.e., the spectral luminosity of the bremsstrahlung component increases slowly between 1 and 30 keV even though the emissivity declines with energy within that energy band. The bremsstrahlung luminosity was found to dominate that of the primary scattered gammas for E of less than 20 keV.

Clayton, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk, and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results, and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods, such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty, are rendered obsolete, since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper describes how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Novack, Steven D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Novack, Steven D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Urban Flood Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification and Physics‐Informed Gaussian Processes Regression Forecasting

Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pairing correlations in the cuprates: A numerical study of the three-band Hubbard model

We study the three-band Hubbard model for the copper oxide plane of the high-temperature superconducting cuprates using determinant quantum Monte Carlo and the dynamical cluster approximation (DCA) and provide a comprehensive view of the pairing correlations in this model using these methods. Specifically, we compute the pair-field susceptibility and study its dependence on temperature, doping, interaction strength, and charge-transfer energy. Using the DCA, we also solve the Bethe-Salpeter equation for the two-particle Green's function in the particle-particle channel to determine the transition temperature to the superconducting phase on smaller clusters. Our calculations reproduce many aspects of the cuprate phase diagram and indicate that there is an “optimal” value of the charge-transfer energy for the model where T c is largest. Finally, these results have implications for our understanding of superconductivity in both the cuprates and other doped charge-transfer insulators.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of CAD-based Geometry Workflows for Multiphysics Fusion Problems Using OpenMC and MOOSE

Fusion system designs are complex and require intricate and accurate meshes to be properly modeled. In this study, we investigate the use of CAD-based geometry workflows in fusion systems multiphysics problems. A simplified tokamak was introduced and modeled in CAD using a multiphysics coupling of OpenMC Monte Carlo transport and MOOSE heat conduction. The meshed geometry was prepared using direct accelerated geometry Monte Carlo (DAGMC) for particle transport, and a volumetric mesh was also prepared to be used in MOOSE and to tally OpenMC results. Cardinal was used to run OpenMC Monte Carlo particle transport within MOOSE framework. The heat source distribution and tritium production were calculated in OpenMC. The data transfer system was used to transfer heat source and temperature distribution between OpenMC and MOOSE. Two computational studies related to mesh refinement were performed: (1) refining the DAGMC and volumetric meshes used for tallying results and solving heat conduction and (2) only refining the DAGMC particle transport mesh. The refinement of the tally mesh has a much larger effect on the runtime compared to the refinement of the DAGMC particle transport surface mesh.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic, charge, and bond order in the two-dimensional Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-Holstein model

Most nonperturbative numerical studies of electron-phonon interactions focus on model Hamiltonians where the electrons interact with a phonon branch via a single type of microscopic mechanism. Two commonly explored couplings in this context are the Holstein and Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) interactions, which describe phonons modulating the on-site energy and intersite electron hopping, respectively. Many materials, however, have multiple phonon branches that can each interact with electronic degrees of freedom in different ways. We present here a determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of the half-filled two-dimensional (bond) SSH-Holstein Hamiltonian, where electrons couple to different phonon branches via either the Holstein or SSH mechanism. As a result, we map the model's phase diagram and determine the nature of the transitions between charge-density wave, bond-order wave, and antiferromagnetic order.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Proton Radiation Belt With Van Allen Probes Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope Data

An empirical model of the proton radiation belt is constructed from data taken during 2013-2017 by the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescopes on the Van Allen Probes satellites. The model intensity is a function of time, kinetic energy in the range 18-600 megaelectronvolts, equatorial pitch angle, and L shell of proton guiding centers. Data are selected, on the basis of energy deposits in each of the nine silicon detectors, to reduce background caused by hard proton energy spectra at low L. Instrument response functions are computed by Monte Carlo integration, using simulated proton paths through a simplified structural model, to account for energy loss in shielding material for protons outside the nominal field of view. Overlap of energy channels, their wide angular response, and changing satellite orientation require the model dependencies on all three independent variables be determined simultaneously. This is done by least squares minimization with a customized steepest descent algorithm. Model uncertainty accounts for statistical data error and systematic error in the simulated instrument response. A proton energy spectrum is also computed from data taken during the 8 January 2014 solar event, to illustrate methods for the simpler case of an isotropic and homogeneous model distribution. Radiation belt and solar proton results are compared to intensities computed with a simplified, on-axis response that can provide a good approximation under limited circumstances.

Selesnick, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Partial Atomic Charges in Metal–Organic Frameworks: An Extension to Ionic MOFs

Molecular simulation is an invaluable tool to predict and understand the usage of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for gas storage and separation applications. Accurate partial atomic charges, commonly obtained from density functional theory (DFT) calculations, are often required to model the electrostatic interactions between the MOF and adsorbates, especially when the adsorbates have dipole or quadrupole moments, such as water and CO 2 . Machine learning (ML) models have been previously employed to predict partial charges and avoid the computational cost associated with DFT calculations. However, previous ML models suffer from small training data sets, which limit their scope of application. In this work, we introduce two novel machine learning models, PACMOF2-neutral and PACMOF2-ionic, aimed at predicting the density-derived electrostatic and chemical (DDEC6) partial atomic charges for both neutral and ionic MOFs. These models not only yield DFT-level accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost but also demonstrate a remarkable improvement in prediction of adsorption, as validated with grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the robustness and fast computational time of the PACMOF2 models, along with their transferability to other porous materials such as covalent organic frameworks and zeolites, underscores their potential in high-throughput screening of MOFs for diverse applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2016

Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology

The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and intracranial pressure had dominant impact on the peak strains in the ONH and retro-laminar optic nerve, respectively; optic nerve and lamina cribrosa stiffness were also important. This investigation illustrates the ability of LHSPRCC to identify the most influential physiological parameters, which must therefore be well-characterized to produce the most accurate numerical results.

biomechanics↗