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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,693 records · Page 94
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel approach to characterize the full spectrum and radiative properties of aerosols

Organic aerosols play a significant role in the absorption and radiative budget of the atmosphere, but current modeling approaches do not adequately capture the photo-chemical and oxidative bleaching that occurs during their lifetimes. Most climate models inaccurately assume constant optical properties of these particles, therefore leading to errors in their predictions. In this study we present an approach to better parameterize the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols, including brown carbon (BrC). Using thin-film spectrometry, the full spectrum of reflectivity and emissivity was used to calculate the complex refractive index for multiple species of organic aerosols. This is in contrast to previous techniques which only probe single wavelengths. Since BrC is a complex molecular mixture, we initially focused on single species absorption using four molecular surrogates. Dye-doped polyacrylic-acid thin-films were prepared on glass slides and compared to an aerosolized collection method. Verification of the collection method will open the door to characterizing the complex refractive index of smoke and ambient aerosol.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation Analysis of Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Simulated in SIERRA/Fuego [Slides]

Analysis of methanol pool fire conducted as part of validation study for SIERRA/Fuego. Results showed trends & errors consistent with related studies. Area validation metric provides way to quantify model form uncertainty. AVM shows that more work could be done to understand how model form uncertainty varies with mesh resolution. There is a possible atypical use of MAVM on time-series data. AVM shows mismatch between predicted flame height and experimental value less sensitive to variations in mixture fraction than temperature. Mismatch about experimental value also more symmetric for mixture fraction. Our analysis showed that mixture fraction is preferable for this application.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Information for Fusion Energy Sciences (Final Technical Report)

The simulation of plasma dynamics is a critical area of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) due to it’s usefulness in predicting, controlling, and confining plasmas in the context of potential fusion reactors. The simulation of plasmas is a computationally difficult problem in both classical and quantum physics, motivating investigation into the potential of quantum computers to simulate these systems. This project took several concrete steps towards this goal by developing tools for improving the control, characterization, and calibration of quantum gates on a superconducting quantum computer, developing error suppression and mitigation tools to reduce errors on the quantum computer, and utilizing these advancements to simulate reduced models of plasma dynamics on the quantum computer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

System and method for simulating turbulence

A system and method for simulation of fluid flow. The system being configured to remove loops in a vortex filament in a simulation model and reconnect the filament. The system may also be configured to model fluid flow in relation to a moving object and to correct errors in surface vorticity.

Krispin, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Detection of Anomalies in Battery Energy Storage System Data

Data analytics is pivotal in assessing the technical characteristics and performance of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), underpinning BESS modeling, optimization, and control. However, raw datasets frequently harbor anomalies from measurement errors and equipment malfunctions, impacting BESS reliability and analysis accuracy To address the challenge, this paper presents a novel methodology for the rapid detection of anomalous charge or discharge cycles within BESS operational data, expediting the cleaning process while ensuring data integrity. We’ve collected diverse and comprehensive real-world BESS operational datasets in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute and multiple Washington State utilities. These datasets serve dual roles: enabling comprehensive data exploration and analysis for understanding underlying challenges and method development, while also acting as a vital validation resource, demonstrating practical effectiveness. The proposed method detects anomalies and aids in their resolution, improving system performance characterization precision. It also reveals recurring data anomaly sources, offering insights for data collection and handling enhancement. Practitioners can gain valuable insights from the identified anomalous cycles in the real-world datasets along with the investigative process for root cause analyses and essential data cleaning steps.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

ACRRF High-Bay Dose Calculations using MCNP (Part A)

Analytical tools and models have been developed as a starting point for directly assessing dose in the Annular Core Research Reactor Facility (ACRRF) due to reactor operation. Key results include peak dose along the Central Cavity (CC) centerline (beamline) at the cavity level, dose throughout the High-Bay (HB), and dose on the facility roof for partially-shielded reactor operation where the 4” insert is removed from the CC Shield Plug (SP). Model results in the beamline are benchmarked against measured doses from passive dosimetry evaluations. Personnel total (neutron and gamma) dose in the ACRRF HB is calculated using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP). Various CC and SP configurations are analyzed, including unshielded (no SP) and partially shielded (SP installed but 4” insert removed). Novel application of Variance Reduction (VR) techniques, namely the Surface Source Write (SSW) and Surface Source Read (SSR) capabilities in MCNP, enable impressive resolution (in a Monte Carlo modeling sense) of dose throughout much the facility. The VR techniques reduce stochastic error for challenging tallies, with more advanced techniques explored in the companion to this report (Part B) [1]. Supplementary studies (including a verification analysis) and pedagogic evaluations in Part B involve neutron spectra, angular distributions, and the dose impact of facility characteristics. With the SP 4” insert removed and the Lead-Boron (44”) Bucket (LB–44) in the reactor cavity, Total Effective Dose (TED) within the CC beamline is ≈140 rem per 300 MJ of reactor yield (or 3900 rem per hour at 100% Steady-State (SS) power). With no SP (unshielded) and a Free-Field (FF) cavity, TED within the beamline is ≈610 rem per 300 MJ (or 17000 rem per hour at 100% SS power). Due to the predicted collimation of radiation by the reactor pool (and partial SP, if present), beamline dose is much greater than the scattered radiation field surrounding the cavity and reactor tank. Comparisons are made to beamline dosimetry measurements to validate the model. Model predictions agree reasonably well (⪅10%) with measured quantities of neutron fluence, gamma fluence, and spectral metrics. Away from the beamline, comparisons made to previous dose measurements in the HB agreement within an order of magnitude.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Completed SDSS-IV Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body Mock Challenge for Galaxy Clustering Measurements

We develop a series of N-body data challenges, functional to the final analysis of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) Data Release 16 (DR16) galaxy sample. The challenges are primarily based on high-fidelity catalogues constructed from the Outer Rim simulation - a large box size realization (3h(-1) Gpc) characterized by an unprecedented combination of volume and mass resolution, down to 1.85 x 10(9) h(-1)M(circle dot). We generate synthetic galaxy mocks by populating Outer Rim haloes with a variety of halo occupation distribution (HOD) schemes of increasing complexity, spanning different redshift intervals. We then assess the performance of three complementary redshift space distortion (RSD) models in configuration and Fourier space, adopted for the analysis of the complete DR16 eBOSS sample of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRG5). We find all the methods mutually consistent, with comparable systematic errors on the Alcock-Paczynski parameters and the growth of structure, and robust to different HOD prescriptions - thus validating the robustness of the models and the pipelines used for the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and full shape clustering analysis. In particular, all the techniques are able to recover and alpha(11) to within 0.9 per cent, and f sigma(8) to within 1.5 per cent. As a by-product of our work, we are also able to gain interesting insights on the galaxy-halo connection. Our study is relevant for the final eBOSS DR16 'consensus cosmology', as the systematic error budget is informed by testing the results of analyses against these high-resolution mocks. In addition, it is also useful for future large-volume surveys, since similar mock-making techniques and systematic corrections can be readily extended to model for instance the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) galaxy sample.

cosmology: theory, large-scale structure of Univer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting bulge to total luminosity ratio of galaxies using deep learning

ABSTRACT We present a deep learning model to predict the r-band bulge-to-total luminosity ratio (B/T) of nearby galaxies using their multiband JPEG images alone. Our Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based regression model is trained on a large sample of galaxies with reliable decomposition into the bulge and disc components. The existing approaches to estimate the B/T ratio use galaxy light-profile modelling to find the best fit. This method is computationally expensive, prohibitively so for large samples of galaxies, and requires a significant amount of human intervention. Machine learning models have the potential to overcome these shortcomings. In our CNN model, for a test set of 20 000 galaxies, 85.7 per cent of the predicted B/T values have absolute error (AE) less than 0.1. We see further improvement to 87.5 per cent if, while testing, we only consider brighter galaxies (with r-band apparent magnitude <17) with no bright neighbours. Our model estimates the B/T ratio for the 20 000 test galaxies in less than a minute. This is a significant improvement in inference time from the conventional fitting pipelines, which manage around 2–3 estimates per minute. Thus, the proposed machine learning approach could potentially save a tremendous amount of time, effort, and computational resources while predicting B/T reliably, particularly in the era of next-generation sky surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Euclid sky survey which will produce extremely large samples of galaxies.

Grover, Harsh (ORCID:0000000321338142)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unraveling the CO Oxidation Mechanism over Highly Dispersed Pt Single Atom on Anatase TiO 2 (101)

Catalysts with noble metals deposited as single atoms on metal oxide supports have recently been studied extensively due to their maximized metal utilization and potential for performing difficult chemical conversions owing to their unique electronic properties. Understanding of the reaction mechanisms on supported single-metal atoms is still limited but is highly important for designing more efficient catalysts. In this study, we report the complexity of the CO oxidation reaction mechanism on Pt single atoms supported on anatase TiO 2 (Pt SA /a-TiO 2 ) by coupling density functional theory (DFT) calculations and microkinetic analysis with kinetic measurements, in situ/operando infrared, and X-ray absorption spectroscopies. Starting from the adsorbed Pt SA occupying an O vacancy induced by reductive pretreatment, we show that CO oxidation follows a complex mechanism consisting of initiation steps to reorganize the active site and multibranch reactive cycles, with the Pt SA /a-TiO 2 catalyst not returning to its initial configuration. The initiation step consists of CO and O 2 adsorption healing the O vacancy, followed by CO oxidation using gas-phase CO to form Pt(CO). The reactive cycle alternates O 2 adsorption and dissociation to oxidize the catalyst to Pt(O)(O)(CO) and branching pathways of competing Langmuir–Hinshelwood (LH)- or Eley–Rideal (ER)-type CO oxidation steps to reduce it again to Pt(CO). In situ/operando infrared experiments, including cryogenic CO adsorption and isotopic CO exchange, confirm the combined involvement of strongly adsorbed CO and gas-phase CO in an Eley–Rideal step along the reaction cycle. Microkinetic modeling shows that Pt single atoms are present in a mixture of Pt(CO), Pt(CO)(O 2 ), Pt(O)(CO)(O 2 ), and Pt(CO)(CO 3 ) structures as the main intermediates during steady-state CO oxidation, all having the C–O vibrational stretch close to the experimentally observed value of 2115 cm –1 . Microkinetic modeling also shows that the fractional orders of CO and O 2 measured experimentally originate from multiple steps with a high degree of rate control and not from a simple competitive adsorption. The results demonstrate the complex reaction pathways that even CO oxidation on a simple single-atom system can follow, providing mechanistic insights for designing efficient Pt-based single-atom catalysts. Here, we further show that microkinetic modeling results are sensitive to changes in energies of intermediate and transition states within errors of density functional theory, which can ultimately lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the reaction pathways and most abundant reaction intermediates if not accounted for by experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

On-Line Prediction of Resistant Force During Soil–Tool Interaction

For off-road vehicles such as excavators and wheel loaders, a large portion of energy is consumed to overcome the soil resistant force in the digging process. For optimal control of the digging tool, a high-fidelity model of the soil–tool interaction force is important to reduce energy consumption. Here, in this paper, an on-line soil resistant force prediction method is proposed. In this method, a hybrid model, which combines a physical model and a data-driven model, is used for the force prediction. In addition, the parameters of the hybrid model can be updated on-line based on real-time data. Comparisons with experimental data demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has an average error of around 12.7%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed State-space Neural Networks for transport phenomena

This work introduces Physics -informed State -space neural network Models (PSMs), a novel solution to achieving real-time optimization, flexibility, and fault tolerance in autonomous systems, particularly in transportdominated systems such as chemical, biomedical, and power plants. Traditional data -driven methods fall short due to a lack of physical constraints like mass conservation; PSMs address this issue by training deep neural networks with sensor data and physics -informing using components' Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), resulting in a physics -constrained, end -to -end differentiable forward dynamics model. Further, through two in silico experiments - a heated channel and a cooling system loop - we demonstrate that PSMs offer a more accurate approach than a purely data -driven model. In the former experiment, PSMs demonstrated significantly lower average root -mean -square errors across test datasets compared to a purely data -driven neural network, with reductions of 44 %, 48 %, and 94 % in predicting pressure, velocity, and temperature, respectively. Beyond accuracy, PSMs demonstrate a compelling multitask capability, making them highly versatile. In this work, we showcase two: supervisory control of a nonlinear system through a sequentially updated state -space representation and the proposal of a diagnostic algorithm using residuals from each of the PDEs. The former demonstrates PSMs' ability to handle constant and time -dependent constraints, while the latter illustrates their value in system diagnostics and fault detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capacitor Voltage Ripple Estimation and Optimal Sizing of Modular Multi-Level Converters for Variable-Speed Drives

This article deals with the sizing of submodule capacitors for modular multilevel converters (MMCs) used for variable speed drives for medium voltage and high voltage electric machines. Variable speed drives are required to run over a wide frequency range from zero to a few hundred Hz or even over 1 kHz. Under low frequency operation (<30 Hz), a large current ripple flowing through the MMC submodule capacitors will cause significant capacitor voltage fluctuation. This article proposes an optimal submodule capacitor selection method based on the common-mode voltage injection. The proposed sizing model includes two functions: 1) accurately estimating the capacitor voltage ripple based on the drive system parameters; and 2) identifying the minimum capacitance of the submodule capacitors based on the allowed maximum capacitor voltage fluctuations. Simulation and experimental results show that the error between the actual and estimated values of the voltage fluctuation is within 3% using the proposed model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linear Modelling from Betatron Phase Measurements at the Fermilab Recycler NOvA ring

Utilizing the measurement of coherent betatron oscillation phase has emerged as fast and precise approach for identifying and rectifying errors in implementing a desired lattice in CESR (Cornell Electron Storage Ring). One key advantage of betatron phase measurement over β measurement is its sensitivity to phase variations between widely separated points. This methodology has been successfully implemented for the Recycler NOvA Ring at Fermilab, with the adoption of TAO (Tool for Accelerator Optics) developed by Cornell University. By employing this technique, a linear model of the Recycler NOvA ring is established, enabling the correction of quadrupole errors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗