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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cek resolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek obtained from the iterative two-stage method also improved predictive performance of the individual models and model averaging in both synthetic and experimental studies.

error correlation↗

Formation of silver nanoparticles inside a soda-lime glass matrix in the presence of a high intensity Ar{sup +} laser beam

Formation and motion of the silver nanoparticles inside an ion-exchanged soda-lime glass in the presence of a focused high intensity continuous wave Ar{sup +} laser beam (intensity: 9.2 x 10{sup 4} W/cm{sup 2}) have been studied in here. One-dimensional diffusion equation has been used to model the diffusion of the silver ions into the glass matrix, and a two-dimensional reverse diffusion model has been introduced to explain the motion of the silver clusters and their migration toward the glass surface in the presence of the laser beam. The results of the mentioned models were in agreement with our measurements on thickness of the ion-exchange layer by means of optical microscopy and recorded morphology of the glass surface around the laser beam axis by using a Mirau interferometer. SEM micrographs were used to extract the size distribution of the migrated silver particles over the glass surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Recent Developments in SHERPA

Some recent QCD-related developments in the SHERPA event generator are presented. In the past decades, event generators such as PYTHIA [1, 2] and HERWIG [3, 4] have been central for nearly all physics analyses at particle physics experiments at the high-energy frontier. This will also hold true at the LHC, where a large number of interesting signals for new particles or new phenomena (the Higgs boson or any other manifestation of the mechanism behind electro-weak symmetry breaking, supersymmetry, extra dimensions etc.) is hampered by a plethora of severe, sometimes overwhelming backgrounds. Nearly all of them are largely influenced by QCD. Therefore it seems fair to say that the success of the LHC in finding new physics may very well depend on a deep and detailed understanding of old physics, like QCD. Examples for this include, among others, the central-jet veto for the vector boson fusion channel for Higgs production or topologies, where gauge bosons emerge in association with many jets, a background for many search channels. In a reflection on increased needs by the experimental community, aiming at higher precision, incorporation of new physics models and so on, the work horses of old have undergone serious renovation efforts, resulting in new, improved versions of the respective codes, namely PYTHIA8 [5] and HERWIG++ [6]. In addition a completely new code, SHERPA [7], has been constructed and is in the process of maturing. The status of this code is the topic of this contribution. SHERPA's hallmark property is the inclusion of higher-order tree-level QCD contributions, leading to an improved modelling of jet production. They are introduced through a full-fledged matrix element generator, AMEGIC++ [8], which is capable of generating matrix elements and corresponding phase space mappings for processes with multi-particle final states in various models, including the Standard Model, anomalous gauge triple and quadruple couplings according to [9, 10], the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with Feynman rules from [11], the ADD-model of extra dimensions [12, 13], and a model with an extra U(1) singlet coupling to the Higgs boson only [14]. The code has been thoroughly tested and validated [15]. This code, however, is limited, especially in the treatment of many ({ge} 6) external QCD particles. Therefore, in the near future, SHERPA will incorporate another, new matrix element generator, COMIX, which is based on Berends-Giele recursion relations [16] and color-dressing [17] rather than color-ordering. In Tabs. 1 and 2 some example cross sections for gg {yields} ng at fixed energies and pp {yields} b{bar b} + n jets obtained with this program are exhibited and compared to those from other programs. In addition, concerning the calculation of higher-order matrix elements and cross sections, there have been first steps towards an automation of such calculations at truly next-to leading order accuracy. They manifest themselves in the implementation of a procedure [19] to fully automatically construct and evaluate Catani-Seymour dipole subtraction terms [20] for the real part of such NLO calculations. The results from the matrix element calculations are merged with the subsequent parton shower through the formalism of [21, 22]. The results of its implementation in SHERPA [23] has recently been compared with other algorithms [24]. Although there remains some dispute about the theoretical equivalence of the different approaches, the overall results show satisfying agreement with each other, such that they can be used with confidence for data analysis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗

Edge delamination of composite laminates subject to combined tension and torsional loading

Delamination is a common failure mode of laminated composite materials. Edge delamination is important since it results in reduced stiffness and strength of the laminate. The tension/torsion load condition is of particular significance to the structural integrity of composite helicopter rotor systems. Material coupons can easily be tested under this type of loading in servo-hydraulic tension/torsion test stands using techniques very similar to those used for the Edge Delamination Tensile Test (EDT) delamination specimen. Edge delamination of specimens loaded in tension was successfully analyzed by several investigators using both classical laminate theory and quasi-three dimensional (Q3D) finite element techniques. The former analysis technique can be used to predict the total strain energy release rate, while the latter technique enables the calculation of the mixed-mode strain energy release rates. The Q3D analysis is very efficient since it produces a three-dimensional solution to a two-dimensional domain. A computer program was developed which generates PATRAN commands to generate the finite element model. PATRAN is a pre- and post-processor which is commonly used with a variety of finite element programs such as MCS/NASTRAN. The program creates a sufficiently dense mesh at the delamination crack tips to support a mixed-mode fracture mechanics analysis. The program creates a coarse mesh in those regions where the gradients in the stress field are low (away from the delamination regions). A transition mesh is defined between these regions. This program is capable of generating a mesh for an arbitrarily oriented matrix crack. This program significantly reduces the modeling time required to generate these finite element meshes, thus providing a realistic tool with which to investigate the tension torsion problem.

Hooper, Steven J.↗

Density Matrix Quantum Circuit Simulation via the BSP Machine on Modern GPU Clusters

As quantum computers evolve, simulations of quantum programs on classical computers will be essential in validating quantum algorithms, understanding the effect of system noise, and design applications for future quantum computers. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-GPU programming model called MG-BSP that constructs a virtual BSP machine on top of modern multi-GPU platforms, and tweak the programming model to build a multi-GPU density matrix quantum simulator. We propose and evaluated a new formulation minimizing communication and prove that the transformation conserves original semantics when noise is introduced. We build the tool-chain to support quantum assembly open standard, synthesize testing quantum circuit, and enable ultra-deep quantum simulation. We evaluated our design on four state-of-the-art multi-GPU platforms including the latest DGX-1 and DGX-2 systems. We demonstrate simulation of 1 million gates in 94 minutes, far deeper circuits than has been demonstrated in prior work. A roofline-model analysis show that we have reached near-optimal performance under memory bound.

Li, Ang↗

Comparison of Graphite Fabric Reinforced PMR-15 and Avimid N Composites After Long Term Isothermal Aging at Various Temperatures

Extensive effort is currently being expended to demonstrate the feasibility of using high-performance, polymer-matrix composites as engine structural materials over the expected operating lifetime of the aircraft, which can extend from 18,000 to 30,000 hr. The goal is to develop light-weight, high-strength, and high-modulus materials for use in higher temperature sections of advanced 21 st century aircraft propulsion systems. To accomplish this goal, it is necessary to pursue the development of thermal and mechanical durability models for graphite-fiber-reinforced, polymer-matrix composites. Numerous investigations have been reported regarding the thermo-oxidative stability (TOS) of the polyimide PMR-15 (1-5). A significant amount of this work has been directed at edge and geometry effects, reinforcement fiber influences, and empirical modeling of high-temperature weight loss behavior. It is yet to be determined if the information obtained from the PMR-15 composite tests is applicable to other polyimide-matrix composites. The condensation-curing polymer Avimid N is another advanced composite material often considered for structural applications at high temperatures. Avimid N has better thermo-oxidative stability than PMR-15 (6), but the latter is more easily processed. The most comprehensive study of the thermo-oxidative stability of Avimid N neat resin and composites at 371 (infinity)C is found in Salin and Seferis (7). The purposes of the work described herein were to compare the thermal aging behavior of these two matrix polymers and to determine the reasons for and the consequences of the difference in thermal durability. These results might be of some use in improving future polymer development through the incorporation of the desirable characteristics of both polyimides.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

Spatially random models, estimation theory, and robot arm dynamics

Spatially random models provide an alternative to the more traditional deterministic models used to describe robot arm dynamics. These alternative models can be used to establish a relationship between the methodologies of estimation theory and robot dynamics. A new class of algorithms for many of the fundamental robotics problems of inverse and forward dynamics, inverse kinematics, etc. can be developed that use computations typical in estimation theory. The algorithms make extensive use of the difference equations of Kalman filtering and Bryson-Frazier smoothing to conduct spatial recursions. The spatially random models are very easy to describe and are based on the assumption that all of the inertial (D'Alembert) forces in the system are represented by a spatially distributed white-noise model. The models can also be used to generate numerically the composite multibody system inertia matrix. This is done without resorting to the more common methods of deterministic modeling involving Lagrangian dynamics, Newton-Euler equations, etc. These methods make substantial use of human knowledge in derivation and minipulation of equations of motion for complex mechanical systems.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Development of a laminate fatigue analysis

A fatigue analysis technique developed to predict damage growth in notched laminates is described. Features of the analysis include: criteria to relate matrix failure to cyclic stresses in and between plies; correlation of delamination growth with strain-release rate; and in-plane shear modulus change is related to cyclic shear stresses. A simplified finite element model is used to determine stresses in laminates that contain matrix damage. Failure criteria are integrated with the finite element model to form the fatigue analysis.

Roderick, G. L.↗

Effect of Boundary Conditions on Process-Induced Stresses in a Plain Weave Unit Cell

Woven polymer matrix composites (PMCs) are leveraged in aerospace applications for their desirable specific properties, yet they are vulnerable to high residual stresses during manufacturing and their complex geometry makes experimental results difficult to observe. Process modeling is needed to characterize the effects of the curing and predict end stress states. Finite element software can be used to model woven architectures, however accurate representation of processing conditions remains a challenge when it comes to selecting boundary conditions. The effect of BCs on process-induced stress within woven PMCs is studied. The commercial Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software Abaqus is coupled with user-written subroutines in a process modeling framework. A two-dimensionally (2D) woven PMC repeating unit cell (RUC) is modeled with TexGen and Abaqus. Virtual curing is imposed on the bulk matrix. The BC study is conducted with Free, Periodic, Flat, and Flat-Free configurations. Results show that the end stress state is sensitive to the boundary condition assumptions. Flat BC results show great agreement with Periodic BCs. Residual stress results from process modeling are then compared with a linear-elastic thermal cooldown analysis in Abaqus. Cooldown results indicate an overestimation in matrix stresses compared with process modeling.

micromechanics↗

Solvable four-state Landau-Zener model of two interacting qubits with path interference

In this paper, I identify a nontrivial four-state Landau-Zener model for which transition probabilities between any pair of diabatic states can be determined analytically and exactly. The model describes an experimentally accessible system of two interacting qubits, such as a localized state in a Dirac material with both valley and spin degrees of freedom or a singly charged quantum dot (QD) molecule with spin orbit coupling. Application of the linearly time-dependent magnetic field induces a sequence of quantum level crossings with possibility of interference of different trajectories in a semiclassical picture. I argue that this system satisfies the criteria of integrability in the multistate Landau-Zener theory, which allows one to derive explicit exact analytical expressions for the transition probability matrix. Finally, I also argue that this model is likely a special case of a larger class of solvable systems, and present a six-state generalization as an example.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Darkening in gas-rich ordinary chondrites: Spectral modelling and implications for the regoliths of ordinary chondrite parent bodies

The dark fine grained matrix of gas-rich ordinary chondrites replicates many of the physical, morphological, and spectral characteristics of the highly shocked and optically altered black chondrites. Spectral mixture modeling shows that the darkening and spectral attenuation seen in the dark matrix can be simulated with realistic mass fractions of light host material and black chondritic material. All these factors point to the conclusion that the dark matrix of gas-rich ordinary chondrites is dark due to the same processes that darkens black chondrites, shock distributed small particle size FeNi metal and troilite. Because the darkening is not seen in any of the non-gas-rich light portions and is only seen in the gas rich grains of the meteorite, the shock darkening would have to occur as part of the matrix's exposure to regolith processes. Since all gas-rich grains are darkened, it follows that darkening is not only common, but pervasive in asteroidal regoliths. These results imply that the upper, optically active layer of an ordinary chondrite parent body should have the spectral characteristics of a black chondrite, which are a dark, relatively featureless spectrum with modest red slope in the infrared. These are the characteristics of special type C asteroids.

Britt, Daniel T.↗

Linear and nonlinear dynamic analysis of redundant load path bearingless rotor systems

The bearingless rotorcraft offers reduced weight, less complexity and superior flying qualities. Almost all the current industrial structural dynamic programs of conventional rotors which consist of single load path rotor blades employ the transfer matrix method to determine natural vibration characteristics because this method is ideally suited for one dimensional chain like structures. This method is extended to multiple load path rotor blades without resorting to an equivalent single load path approximation. Unlike the conventional blades, it isk necessary to introduce the axial-degree-of-freedom into the solution process to account for the differential axial displacements in the different load paths. With the present extension, the current rotor dynamic programs can be modified with relative ease to account for the multiple load paths without resorting to the equivalent single load path modeling. The results obtained by the transfer matrix method are validated by comparing with the finite element solutions. A differential stiffness matrix due to blade rotation is derived to facilitate the finite element solutions.

Murthy, V. R.↗

Non-Destructive Imaging of a Liquid Moving Through Porous Media Using a Computer Tomography Scanner

The most common approach used by modelers to describe movement of liquids through a porous solid, such as cement, sediment, or glass, is to assume a uniform flow rate, such as a Darcy Flux or a diffusion constant. However, this convenient simplification is problematic because in many cases it ignors the presence of fractures and macropores, which commonly dominate water flow and contaminant transport. For this reason, it is common that such modeling results do not reflect the multi-modal flow detected in laboratory and field studies. The objective of this seedling study was to develop a new capability for SRNL to track liquid moving through micro- (matrix-) and macro-flow using an X-ray Computed Topography (CT) Scanner. 4-dimensional anamated renditions were created that permited quantifying traditional matrix flow and macropore flow. These animations were modelled using a public domain software, HYDRUS 1-D, describing one dimension, dual-porosity and dual-permeability processes. This new capability provides a proof of concept for reducing model uncertainty applicable to waste disposal risk calculations, environmental remediation, and waste form development when describing the movement of liquids as they pass through glass, cement, fractured rock, or soil.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

An anisotropic viscoplasticity model for shale based on layered microstructure homogenization

Viscoplastic deformation of shale is frequently observed in many subsurface applications. Many studies have suggested that this viscoplastic behavior is anisotropic—specifically, transversely isotropic—and closely linked to the layered composite structure at the microscale. In this work, we develop a two-scale constitutive model for shale in which anisotropic viscoplastic behavior naturally emerges from semianalytical homogenization of a bilayer microstructure. The microstructure is modeled as a composite of soft layers, representing a ductile matrix formed by clay and organics, and hard layers, corresponding to a brittle matrix composed of stiff minerals. This layered microstructure renders the macroscopic behavior anisotropic, even when the individual layers are modeled with isotropic constitutive laws. Using a common correlation between clay and organic content and magnitude of creep, we apply a viscoplastic modified Cam-Clay plasticity model to the soft layers, while treating the hard layers as a linear elastic material to minimize the number of calibration parameters. We then describe the implementation of the proposed model in a standard material update subroutine. The model is validated with laboratory creep data on samples from three gas shale formations. We also demonstrate the computational behavior of the proposed model through simulation of time-dependent borehole closure in a shale formation with different bedding plane directions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stability analysis of bridged cracks in brittle matrix composites

The bridging of matrix cracks by fibers is an important toughening mechanism in fiber reinforced brittle matrix composites. This paper presents the results of a nonlinear finite element analysis of the Mode-I propagation of a bridged matrix crack in a finite size specimen. The composite is modeled as an orthotropic continuum and the bridging due to the fibers is modeled as a distribution of tractions which resist crack opening. A critical stress intensity factor criterion is employed for matrix crack propagation while a critical crack opening condition is used for fiber failure. The structural response of the specimen (load-deflection curves) as well as the stress intensity factor of the propagating crack are calculated for various constituent properties and specimen configurations for both tensile and bending loading. By controlling the length of the bridged crack results are obtained which highlight the transition from stable to unstable behavior of the propagating crack.

Ballarini, Roberto↗