Electric Grid Vulnerability Analysis to Identify Communities Prone to Wildfires
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Photovoltaic (PV) cells are generally modeled as a current source due to photocurrent, p-n junction diodes with parasitic resistance, capacitance, and inductance. This paper proposes online frequency response analysis (FRA) to measure the impedance of a PV panel using an existing panel-level power optimizer in a PV system. The algorithm will actively perturb a small signal into a 300 W rooftop PV panel and compute its small signal impedance. The technology discussed is easy to incorporate, requires no additional hardware, doesn't alter the stability of the system, and is implemented at a steady-state point. The power optimizer initially stabilizes at an operating point and then perturbs the PV current via FRA and computes PV panel impedance. The relative standard deviation test conducted indoors under 300 W/m 2 illumination on a PV panel shows a less than 5% error rate in PV panel impedance magnitude and phase is measured using a power optimizer.
Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.
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Correlating the electrical performance of photovoltaic modules to the spatially resolved photoluminescence, electroluminescence, and dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) images is an important long-term goal for developing solar cell technology. These images offer highly sophisticated and detailed information about the spatial distribution and (if imaged at successive time intervals) temporal degradation of local series and shunt resistances. There have been extensive studies to correlate these imaging techniques to local characteristics at the cell level. However, it has been difficult to extract and quantify module-level information from the techniques. In this study, we interpret module current-voltage (I-V) measurements along with corresponding DLIT images within a module-scale simulation framework, demonstrating that series resistance degradation of the module I-V characteristics, in this case, can be attributed to solder bond failures. Our simulations highlight how current crowding associated with a failed solder joint (or a section of the solder pad) translates to the characteristic point-like (asymmetric doublet) heating pattern in neighboring solder joints (or the neighboring regions of the solder pad). Overall, the correlation between series resistance and solder joint degradation could inform expedited diagnosis of field degradation of solar modules.
Here, we use sequential stress to investigate hurdles to bifacial photovoltaic (PV) module durability from lamination defects. We test mini-modules with glass/glass (G/G) and glass/transparent-backsheet (G/TB) constructions using either ethylene vinyl acetate or polyolefin elastomer (POE) based encapsulants under a modified IEC 63209-2 sequential stress. This sequence includes multiple iterations of damp heat (DH200), full spectrum light exposure (A3), thermal cycling (TC50), and humidity/freeze (HF10). We compare indoor stress with outdoor exposure. Results show similar relative trends in degradation after a year outdoors compared to our first stress cycle. Subsequent stress cycles impart more severe damage than outdoor exposure for the short outdoor duration used here. Edge-pinch lamination defects in G/G mini-modules limit durability causing delamination and cell cracks. Conversely, we observe greater degradation in G/TB mini-modules compared to G/G in the later stages of the stress sequence when the backsheets are directly exposed to UV-containing light. Our results highlight: 1) the utility of sequential stress testing to uncover degradation modes in bifacial PV, 2) implications of using mini-modules for testing PV quality, and 3) the importance of lamination defects that must be avoided to ensure durability as the industry adopts G/G or G/TB packaging.
Recovering the distribution grid topology in real time is essential to perform several distribution system operator (DSO) functions. DSOs often do not have any direct monitoring of switch statuses to track reconfiguration. At the same time, installing real-time meters at a large number of buses is challenging due to the cost of endowing every metered bus with a real-time communication channel. The goal of this letter is to develop a meter placement strategy allowing DSOs to deploy only few real-time meters. After casting the topology recovery task as an optimization problem, a meter placement strategy ensuring unique recovery of the true topology is devised. A graph-theoretical approach is pursued to partition the grid into connected portions called observable islands . The proposed strategy then simply requires installing a meter in the path between every pair of boundary nodes , i.e., ends of edges connecting two different islands. Under some ideal assumptions, this placement strategy ensures unique recovery of the topology. The approach is also validated through numerical simulations under realistic scenarios using a standard IEEE benchmark feeder.
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In novel photovoltaic absorbers, it is often difficult to assess the root causes of low open-circuit voltages, which may be due to bulk recombination or sub-optimal contacts. In the present work, we discuss the role of temperature- and illumination-dependent device electrical measurements in quantifying and distinguishing these performance losses - in particular, for determining bounds on interface recombination velocities, band alignment, and minority carrier lifetime. We assess the accuracy of this approach by direct comparison to photoelectron spectroscopy. Then, we demonstrate how more computationally intensive model parameter fitting approaches can draw more insights from this broad measurement space. We apply this measurement and modeling approach to high-performance III-V and thin-film chalcogenide devices.
CIGS mini-modules are stressed under reverse bias, resembling partial shading conditions, to predict and characterize where failure occurs. Partial shading can cause permanent damage in the form of 'wormlike' defects on thin-film modules due to thermal runaway. We use electroluminescence (EL) imaging and dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) to supplement current-voltage curves when reverse-bias breakdown occurs on various CIGS minimodules. For better understanding of how these defects originate and propagate, we have implemented a current-limited, reverse-bias stressing technique. This allowed for DLIT-based detection and detailed study of the region where breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. A correlation between suspected defect sites and actual breakdown has been determined using this method.
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This paper introduces here a new method to solve the cross-domain recognition problem. Different from the traditional domain adaption methods which rely on a global domain shift for all classes between the source and target domains, the proposed method is more flexible to capture individual class variations across domains. By adopting a natural and widely used assumption that the data samples from the same class should lay on an intrinsic low-dimensional subspace, even if they come from different domains, the proposed method circumvents the limitation of the global domain shift, and solves the cross-domain recognition by finding the joint subspaces of the source and target domains. Specifically, given labeled samples in the source domain, we construct a subspace for each of the classes. Then we construct subspaces in the target domain, called anchor subspaces, by collecting unlabeled samples that are close to each other and are highly likely to belong to the same class. The corresponding class label is then assigned by minimizing a cost function which reflects the overlap and topological structure consistency between subspaces across the source and target domains, and within the anchor subspaces, respectively. We further combine the anchor subspaces to the corresponding source subspaces to construct the joint subspaces. Subsequently, one-versus-rest support vector machine classifiers are trained using the data samples belonging to the same joint subspaces and applied to unlabeled data in the target domain. We evaluate the proposed method on two widely used datasets: 1) object recognition dataset for computer vision tasks and 2) sentiment classification dataset for natural language processing tasks. Comparison results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the comparison methods on both datasets.
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We describe an approach to analyzing trade data which uses clustering to detect similarities across shipping manifest records, classification to evaluate clustering results and categorize new unseen shipping data records, and visual analytics to provide to support situation awareness in dynamic decision making to monitor and warn against the movement of radiological threat materials through search, analysis and forecasting capabilities. The evaluation of clustering results through classification and systematic inspection of the clusters show the clusters have strong semantic cohesion and offer novel ways to detect transactions related to nuclear smuggling.
We investigate efficient security control methods for protecting against vulnerabilities in networked systems. A large number of interdependent vulnerabilities typically exist in the computing nodes of a cyber-system; as vulnerabilities get exploited, starting from low level ones, they open up the doors to more critical vulnerabilities. These cannot be understood just by a topological analysis of the network, and we use the attack graph abstraction of Dewri et al. to study these problems. In contrast to earlier approaches based on heuristics and evolutionary algorithms, we study rigorous methods for quantifying the inherent vulnerability and hardening cost for the system. We develop algorithms with provable approximation guarantees, and evaluate them for real and synthetic attack graphs.
Critical infrastructure and other operational technology (OT) environments face increasing cybersecurity risks from adversarial behavior. This paper describes the development of a risk model using a Bayesian network to enhance the comprehension of observable cyber events caused by malicious activity in OT environments. The core of the Bayesian network is a process model that describes the stages of adversary behavior. The remainder of the model is based on the MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) taxonomy, which includes tactics and techniques that may be used by the adversary. The observables provide evidence for adversary behavior through the intermediary technique and tactic nodes. One challenge in constructing this model is a lack of open-source data from cyber-attacks on OT systems. This paper discusses learning from limited data, the elicitation of expert opinion to construct the conditional probability tables when data is scarce, and the refinement of the most difficult conditional probabilities tables using several forms of sensitivity analyses. Finally, the Bayesian network is demonstrated using two historical case studies: the DarkSide ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline and the destructive cyberattack targeting the ThyssenKrupp blast furnace. Index Terms—Cybersecurity, industrial control systems, operational technology