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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,693 records · Page 94
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation and reduction of errors induced by the Guyan transformation

The Guyan reduction refers to a method used to reduce the number of degrees of freedom in a structural model for dynamic analysis. Experience shows that, if the method is properly employed, then this reduction method does in fact provide a "reasonably" accurate approximation of the dynamic characteristics of the unreduced model. A method that provides an accurate estimate of the error in each mode of the reduced eigenvalue problem and, in addition, gives first order correction terms that greatly improve the accuracy of the eigenvectors and eigenvalues is presented. The method is demonstrated by standard COSMIC NASTRAN DAMP alters to rigid format 3, real normal mode analysis. Comparative computer time of modal extraction versus error analysis is discussed for the VAX-11/780 version of COSMIC NASTRAN.

Fox, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Effects of model error on control of large flexible space antenna with comparisons of decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control procedures

An analysis was performed to determine the effects of model error on the control of a large flexible space antenna. Control was achieved by employing two three-axis control-moment gyros (CMG's) located on the antenna column. State variables were estimated by including an observer in the control loop that used attitude and attitude-rate sensors on the column. Errors were assumed to exist in the individual model parameters: modal frequency, modal damping, mode slope (control-influence coefficients), and moment of inertia. Their effects on control-system performance were analyzed either for (1) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (2) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. The study includes the effects on stability, time to null, and control requirements (defined as maximum torque and total momentum), as well as on the accuracy of obtaining initial estimates of the disturbances. The effects on the transients of the undisturbed modes are also included. The results, which are compared for decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control procedures, are shown in tabular form, parametric plots, and as sample time histories of modal-amplitude and control responses. Results of the analysis showed that the effects of model errors on the control-system performance were generally comparable for both control procedures. The effect of mode-slope error was the most serious of all model errors.

Hamer, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Optical, thermal, and electrical performance of low-CR solar arrays

This paper describes the analysis and testing of a photovoltaic low-CR concentrator shaped like a truncated pyramid with an aperture of 0.5 m on a side and a geometric concentration ratio of six. The truncated base plane is covered by either silicon (Si) or gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells. Ray-trace analysis of the concentrator predicts a peak optical efficiency of 0.77, which falls off only gradually with pointing error. A coupled thermal-electrical analysis of the system shows that the moderately nonuniform illumination produced by the concentrator does not result in significant mismatch losses, provided the solar cells are connected in parallel groups. The results of ground tests involving a full-scale prototype concentrator conform well with theoretical predictions.

French, E. P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

Keitz, J. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XII. Cosmological parameter constraints with end-to-end error propagation

We present cosmological parameter constraints estimated using the Bayesian BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method supports seamless end-to-end error propagation from raw time-ordered data onto final cosmological parameters. As a first demonstration of the method, we analyzed time-ordered Planck LFI observations, combined with selected external data (WMAP 33–61 GHz, Planck HFI DR4 353 and 857 GHz, and Haslam 408 MHz) in the form of pixelized maps that are used to break critical astrophysical degeneracies. Overall, all the results are generally in good agreement with previously reported values from Planck 2018 and WMAP, with the largest relative difference for any parameter amounting about 1σ when considering only temperature multipoles between 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 600. In cases where there are differences, we note that the BEYONDPLANCK results are generally slightly closer to the high-ℓ HFI-dominated Planck 2018 results than previous analyses, suggesting slightly less tension between low and high multipoles. Using low-ℓ polarization information from LFI and WMAP, we find a best-fit value of τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, which is higher than the low value of τ = 0.052 ± 0.008 derived from Planck 2018 and slightly lower than the value of 0.069 ± 0.011 derived from the joint analysis of official LFI and WMAP products. Most importantly, however, we find that the uncertainty derived in the BEYONDPLANCK processing is about 30 % greater than when analyzing the official products, after taking into account the different sky coverage. We argue that this uncertainty is due to a marginalization over a more complete model of instrumental and astrophysical parameters, which results in more reliable and more rigorously defined uncertainties. We find that about 2000 Monte Carlo samples are required to achieve a robust convergence for a low-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrix with 225 independent modes, and producing these samples takes about eight weeks on a modest computing cluster with 256 cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of geographically correlated orbit errors for TOPEX/Poseidon using the global positioning system

We have compared Global Positioning System (GPS)-based dynamic and reduced-dynamic TOPEX/Poseidon orbits over three 10-day repeat cycles of the ground-track. The results suggest that the prelaunch joint gravity model (JGM-1) introduces geographically correlated errors (GCEs) which have a strong meridional dependence. The global distribution and magnitude of these GCEs are consistent with a prelaunch covariance analysis, with estimated and predicted global rms error statistics of 2.3 and 2.4 cm rms, respectively. Repeating the analysis with the post-launch joint gravity model (JGM-2) suggests that a portion of the meridional dependence observed in JGM-1 still remains, with global rms error of 1.2 cm.

Christensen, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

MRAC with Time-Varying Reference Model from Convex Combination

An extension of model reference adaptive control is presented that accommodates use of a time-varying reference model. Specifically, the reference model is taken to be a time-varying convex combination of two linear, time-invariant models. The design is intended to act as a way to smoothly transition between two different reference models without resorting to a scheduled switch. It also provides the ability to use an interpolated reference model when the plant is operating between design points. The time variation of the combination must satisfy some requirements to ensure stability but is otherwise user choice. Subject to these requirements, bounded tracking error behavior is demonstrated via Lyapunov stability analysis for the single-input, single-output, output feedback case. Tracking error convergence is asymptotic when time variation ceases. The proposed design is demonstrated in simulation of a numerical model.

Hashemi, Kelley E.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sub-divertor fuel isotopic content detection limit for JET and its impact on ICRF core heating and DTE2 operation

The ability to detect and control fuel isotopic content down to a 1% concentration level is greatly important for the upcoming JET DTE2 campaign, as well as its associated TT and DD phases. A reduction of H minority concentration even from 2% down to 1% is shown in this paper to have significant impact on the effectiveness of ion cyclotron range of frequencies core heating, while the ability to maintain T or D concentration at or below 1% is critical to limiting fusion neutron generation in the DD and TT phases, correspondingly. The sub-divertor measurement of (global) isotopic concentration, based on Penning-activated optical spectroscopy, can deliver minimally this 1% detection for DTE2 as long as light collection from the Penning emission can be optimized and gradual window transmission deterioration can be minimized. Here, this is simulated with a statistical analysis developed to understand the uncertainty sources in the JET DTE1 data, as well as to guide the optimization of an upgraded, fuel-isotopic content (and helium-ash concentration) gas analysis system for the JET divertor in preparation for DTE2. While this random error can be reduced to allow measurement substantially below 1% concentration, analysis also shows a systematic error of up to 1% understood to be due to plasma–surface interactions in the Penning excitation, suggesting that 1% may still be the low-end limit for the sub-divertor measurement, unless a Penning-source conditioning approach is also developed.

fusion fuel isotopic content↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporally Adaptive Compression for Scientific Dataset with Feature Preservation – A Case Study on Simulation Data with Extreme Climate Events Analysis

Scientific discoveries are increasingly constrained by limited storage space and I/O capacities. For time-series simulations and experiments, their data often need to be decimated over timesteps to accommodate storage and I/O limitations. In this paper, we propose a technique that addresses storage costs while improving post-analysis accuracy through spatiotemporal adaptive, error-controlled lossy compression. We investigate the trade-off between data precision and temporal output rates, revealing that reducing data precision and increasing timestep frequency lead to more accurate analysis outcomes. Additionally, we integrate spatiotemporal feature detection with data compression and demonstrate that performing adaptive error-bounded compression in higher dimensional space enables greater compression ratios, leveraging the error propagation theory of a transformation-based compressor. To evaluate our approach, we conduct experiments using the well-known E3SM climate simulation code and apply our method to compress variables used for cyclone tracking. Our results show a significant reduction in storage size while enhancing the quality of cyclone tracking analysis, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in comparison to the prevalent timestep decimation approach. Compared to three state-of-the-art lossy compressors lacking feature preservation capabilities, our adaptive compression framework improves perfectly matched cases in TC tracking by 26.4-51.3% at medium compression ratios and by 77.3-571.1% at large compression ratios, with a merely 5–11% computational overhead.

Gong, Qian↗
NASA NTRS2018

Insight and Evidence Motivating the Simplification of Dual-Analysis Hybrid Systems into Single-Analysis Hybrid Systems

Many hybrid data assimilation systems currently used for NWP employ some form of dual-analysis system approach. Typically a hybrid variational analysis is responsible for creating initial conditions for high-resolution forecasts, and an ensemble analysis system is responsible for creating sample perturbations used to form the flow-dependent part of the background error covariance required in the hybrid analysis component. In many of these, the two analysis components employ different methodologies, e.g., variational and ensemble Kalman filter. In such cases, it is not uncommon to have observations treated rather differently between the two analyses components; recentering of the ensemble analysis around the hybrid analysis is used to compensated for such differences. Furthermore, in many cases, the hybrid variational high-resolution system implements some type of four-dimensional approach, whereas the underlying ensemble system relies on a three-dimensional approach, which again introduces discrepancies in the overall system. Connected to these is the expectation that one can reliably estimate observation impact on forecasts issued from hybrid analyses by using an ensemble approach based on the underlying ensemble strategy of dual-analysis systems. Just the realization that the ensemble analysis makes substantially different use of observations as compared to their hybrid counterpart should serve as enough evidence of the implausibility of such expectation. This presentation assembles numerous anecdotal evidence to illustrate the fact that hybrid dual-analysis systems must, at the very minimum, strive for consistent use of the observations in both analysis sub-components. Simpler than that, this work suggests that hybrid systems can reliably be constructed without the need to employ a dual-analysis approach. In practice, the idea of relying on a single analysis system is appealing from a cost-maintenance perspective. More generally, single-analysis systems avoid contradictions such as having to choose one sub-component to generate performance diagnostics to another, possibly not fully consistent, component.

Todling, Ricardo↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography

Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, H0. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on H0 from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in H0 values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the “bulge-halo” conspiracy, H0 is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields H0 = 74.0−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, while the power-law model yields 74.2−1.6+1.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Error field predictability and consequences for ITER

Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effects of target fragmentation on evaluation of LET spectra from space radiation in low-earth orbit (LEO) environment: impact on SEU predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

STS-51 Shuttle Project↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effects of Target Fragmentation on Evaluation of LET Spectra From Space Radiation in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) Environment: Impact on SEU Predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

Shinn, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Towards the 1 mm/y Stability of the Radial Orbit Error at Regional Scales

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS, SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West "order-1" pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Precision Orbit Determination (POD)↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effects of yaw and pitch motion on model attitude measurements

This report presents a theoretical analysis of the dynamic effects of angular motion in yaw and pitch on model attitude measurements in which inertial sensors were used during wind tunnel tests. A technique is developed to reduce the error caused by these effects. The analysis shows that a 20-to-1 reduction in model attitude measurement error caused by angular motion is possible with this technique.

Tcheng, Ping↗