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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

Allometric relationships and trade‐offs in 11 common M editerranean‐climate grasses

Abstract Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant–environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co‐occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process‐based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above‐ and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade‐offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast‐growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf‐to‐stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root‐to‐leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C 4 and C 3 plants. Our study provides species‐specific and functional‐type‐specific allometry equations for both above‐ and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade‐offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling Seamless Transitions from Experimental to Production HPC for Interactive Workflows

The evolving landscape of scientific computing requires seamless transitions from experimental to production HPC environments for interactive workflows. This paper presents a structured transition pathway developed at OLCF that bridges the gap between development testbeds and production systems. We address both technological and policy challenges, introducing frameworks for data streaming architectures, secure service interfaces, and adaptive resource scheduling for time-sensitive workloads and improved HPC interactivity. Our approach transforms traditional batch-oriented HPC into a more dynamic ecosystem capable of supporting modern scientific workflows that require near real-time data analysis, experimental steering, and cross-facility integration.

Etz, Brian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000208554863)↗

Grain boundary segregation in BCC vanadium-based alloys: Quantum-accurate computed segregation spectra and targeted experimental validations

Grain boundaries are critically important to the material performance of fusion reactor materials such as vanadium, particularly mechanical properties and irradiation resistance. A key challenge to the design and control of grain boundaries in vanadium alloys is the lack of quantitative data on grain boundary segregation. In this study, we combine computational and experimental methods to address this gap. Furthermore, using a machine learning-accelerated quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics approach, we calculated the segregation spectra for 28 transition metal elements in polycrystalline vanadium, and validated these predictions experimentally for a subset of solutes that sample a range of segregation behavior, specifically zirconium, titanium, and tungsten, using analytical transmission electron microscopy. Furthermore, the agreement between experiment and theory highlights the predictive capability of our approach. Critically, this work provides a comprehensive database of quantum-accurate solute segregation enthalpies in vanadium, enabling the development of advanced alloys for fusion reactors applications.

Fusion materials↗

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Environmental and socio-economic Pareto-front trade-off analysis of U.S. PET packaging material in a circular economy

Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

Forming the Future of Agrohydrology

Agricultural water management is increasingly prioritized throughout the world as producers are tasked with meeting growing crop demand while also managing environmental resources more sustainably. Likewise, agriculture is increasingly modifying the terrestrial water cycle. In response to these dynamics, the informal research discipline of agrohydrology continues to grow, fueled by a new era of rapidly evolving research tools and big data availability. While many researchers are actively invested in agrohydrology as a research topic, there remains a gap in formalizing this valuable discipline. This article aims to: (a) identify key research themes in agrohydrology, (b) conceptualize future research topics within each theme, and (c) estimate a timeframe before topics become pressing (i.e., before a topic becomes a limiting factor in advancing water management in an agricultural context). This commentary is meant to guide the trajectory of an evolving discipline of agrohydrology, the practice of agricultural water management at multiple nested scales, and the conversation of the invested public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bridging 20 Years of Soil Organic Matter Frameworks: Empirical Support, Model Representation, and Next Steps

Abstract In the past few decades, there has been an evolution in our understanding of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics from one of inherent biochemical recalcitrance to one deriving from plant‐microbe‐mineral interactions. This shift in understanding has been driven, in part, by influential conceptual frameworks which put forth hypotheses about SOM dynamics. Here, we summarize several focal conceptual frameworks and derive from them six controls related to SOM formation, (de)stabilization, and loss. These include: (a) physical inaccessibility; (b) organo‐mineral and ‐metal stabilization; (c) biodegradability of plant inputs; (d) abiotic environmental factors; (e) biochemical reactivity and diversity; and (f) microbial physiology and morphology. We then review the empirical evidence for these controls, their model representation, and outstanding knowledge gaps. We find relatively strong empirical support and model representation of abiotic environmental factors but disparities between data and models for biochemical reactivity and diversity, organo‐mineral and ‐metal stabilization, and biodegradability of plant inputs, particularly with respect to SOM destabilization for the latter two controls. More empirical research on physical inaccessibility and microbial physiology and morphology is needed to deepen our understanding of these critical SOM controls and improve their model representation. The SOM controls are highly interactive and also present some inconsistencies which may be reconciled by considering methodological limitations or temporal and spatial variation. Future conceptual frameworks must simultaneously refine our understanding of these six SOM controls at various spatial and temporal scales and within a hierarchical structure, while incorporating emerging insights. This will advance our ability to accurately predict SOM dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A fine pore-preserved deep neural network for porosity analytics of a high burnup U-10Zr metallic fuel

Abstract U-10 wt.% Zr (U-10Zr) metallic fuel is the leading candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Porosity is one of the most important factors that impacts the performance of U-10Zr metallic fuel. The pores generated by the fission gas accumulation can lead to changes in thermal conductivity, fuel swelling, Fuel-Cladding Chemical Interaction (FCCI) and Fuel-Cladding Mechanical Interaction (FCMI). Therefore, it is crucial to accurately segment and analyze porosity to understand the U-10Zr fuel system to design future fast reactors. To address the above issues, we introduce a workflow to process and analyze multi-source Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) image data. Moreover, an encoder-decoder-based, deep fully convolutional network is proposed to segment pores accurately by integrating the residual unit and the densely-connected units. Two SEM 250 × field of view image datasets with different formats are utilized to evaluate the new proposed model’s performance. Sufficient comparison results demonstrate that our method quantitatively outperforms two popular deep fully convolutional networks. Furthermore, we conducted experiments on the third SEM 2500 × field of view image dataset, and the transfer learning results show the potential capability to transfer the knowledge from low-magnification images to high-magnification images. Finally, we use a pre-trained network to predict the pores of SEM images in the whole cross-sectional image and obtain quantitative porosity analysis. Our findings will guide the SEM microscopy data collection efficiently, provide a mechanistic understanding of the U-10Zr fuel system and bridge the gap between advanced characterization to fuel system design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Empirically-calibrated H100 node power models for accurate AI training energy estimation

Accurately quantifying the energy use of artificial intelligence (AI) training is critical for infrastructure planning, carbon accounting, and sustainable data center operation, but few studies have directly measured the power consumption of production workloads on contemporary hardware. By combining empirical measurements from Brookhaven National Laboratory during AI training on 8-graphics-processing-unit H100 systems with open-source benchmarking data, we develop statistical models relating computational intensity to node-level power consumption. We measure the gap between manufacturer-rated thermal design power (TDP) and actual power demand during AI training. Our analysis reveals that even computationally intensive workloads operate at only 76% of the 10.2 kW TDP rating. Our architecture-specific model, calibrated to floating-point operations, predicts energy consumption with 11.4% mean absolute percentage error, significantly outperforming TDP-based approaches (27%–37% error). We identified distinct power signatures between transformer and convolutional neural network architectures, with transformers showing characteristic fluctuations that may impact grid stability. These results provide a measurement-grounded basis for improving AI training energy estimates, enabling more reliable infrastructure sizing, cost projections, and environmental impact assessments.

Newkirk, Alex C↗

Two- and three-particle nonflow contributions to the chiral magnetic effect measurement by spectator and participant planes in relativistic heavy ion collisions

Correlation measurements with respect to the spectator and participant planes in relativistic heavy ion collisions were proposed to extract the chiral magnetic effect (CME) from background dominated azimuthal correlators. Here, this paper investigates the effects of two- and three-particle nonflow correlations on the extracted CME signal fraction, f CME . It is found, guided by a multiphase transport (ampt) model and the heavy ion jet interaction generator (hijing) together with experimental data, that the nonflow effects amount to approximately (4 ± 5)% and (–5 ± 3)% without and with pseudorapidity gaps, respectively, in 20–50% centrality Au + Au collisions at √ s NN = 200 GeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Er Al :Al 2 ⁢O 3 for telecom-band photonics: Electronic structure and optical properties

Er-doped Al 2 ⁢O 3 is a promising host for telecom-band integrated photonics. Here, in this study, we combine ab initio calculations with a symmetry-resolved analysis to elucidate substitutional Er on the Al site (Er Al ) in 𝛼−Al 2 ⁢O 3 . First-principles relaxations confirm the structural stability of Er Al . We then use the local trigonal crystal-field symmetry to classify the Er-derived impurity levels by irreducible representations and to derive polarization-resolved electric-dipole selection rules, explicitly identifying the symmetry-allowed 𝑓−𝑑 hybridization channels. Kubo-Greenwood absorption spectra computed from Kohn-Sham states quantitatively corroborate these symmetry predictions. Furthermore, we connect the calculated intra-4⁢𝑓 line strengths to Judd-Ofelt theory, clarifying the role of 4⁢𝑓−5⁢𝑑 admixture in enabling optical activity. Notably, we predict a characteristic absorption near 1.47 µ⁢m (telecom band), relevant for on-chip amplification and emission. To our knowledge, a symmetry-resolved first-principles treatment of Er:Al 2 ⁢O 3 with an explicit Judd-Ofelt interpretation has not been reported, providing a transferable framework for tailoring rare-earth dopants in wide-band-gap oxides for integrated photonics. Our results for the optical spectra are in good agreement with experimental data. The resulting symmetry-based selection rules translate directly to polarization-dependent coupling in Al 2 ⁢O 3 integrated photonic waveguides and resonators, enabling device-level design of TE/TM-mode interaction with Er emitters in the 1.5-µ⁢m telecom band.

Er-doped Al2O3↗

LLNL/thicket

Thicket is a python-based toolkit for Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) of parallel performance data that enables performance optimization and understanding of applications’ performance on supercomputers. It bridges the performance tool gap between being able to consider only a single instance of a simulation run (e.g., single platform, single measurement tool, or single scale) and finding actionable insights in multi-dimensional, multi-scale, multi-architecture, and multi-tool performance datasets.

Brink, Stephanie Labasan↗

Dissolution of Fluoride Salts in Hanford Tank Waste

The Direct Feed High-Level Waste (DFHLW) strategy seeks to bypass the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant Pretreatment Facility while retaining some processing functions to maximize waste feed loading and minimize high-level waste (HLW) waste volume. The DFHLW flowsheet needs leaching, washing, and solids concentration operations either in new or existing tanks. The effectiveness and efficiency of sludge washing has a substantial impact on DST space, mission duration, and the evaporation and low-activity waste (LAW) treatment operations required by these large wash-water additions. One target species requiring washing is fluoride. The HLW glass composition limits for fluorine drive operations to dissolve fluoride-bearing salts into the LAW fraction and thereby maximize waste loading in HLW glass. The fluoride in many high-level wastes at Hanford is predominantly in the form of fluoride-salt precipitates: villiaumite (NaF), kogarkoite (Na 3 FSO 4 ), and natrophosphate (Na 7 F(PO 4 ) 2 ·19H 2 O). Fluoride produces melter off-gas that creates corrosion risk in the off-gas system piping, while the sulfate and phosphate in the fluoride double salts kogarkoite and natrophosphate can be detrimental to glass waste loading. Fluoride salts are sparingly soluble, with solubilities ranging from approximately 40 to 130 kg per kL of pure water, and the dissolution kinetics of the three fluoride salts are not well known. Unexpected delays in a tank dissolution process could be encountered as a result of the lack of information about dissolution rates. In addition, if the double salts show transient non-stoichiometric dissolution of fluoride versus phosphate or sulfate, unexpectedly high concentrations of one of these other constituents could be produced. Washington River Protection Solutions authorized Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to collect the available data for fluoride salt dissolution rate, provide a scoping estimate of dissolution time if possible, and identify gaps in the understanding and predictive capability for estimating dissolution time. Open literature and Hanford reports were reviewed to document, understand, and (where possible) evaluate limitations on fluoride salt equilibria and dissolution kinetics, including both mass transport and surface reaction rate. Scoping estimates of dissolution time were made for mass-transfer-controlled dissolution of spherical particles of fluoride salts suspended in liquid. This is not the only potential governing mechanism; dissolution could be substantially slower if the surface reaction rate (the rate of release of ions from the surface) is the controlling mechanism. When the minimum amount of water for complete dissolution is used and the slip velocity between the liquid and suspended particles is less than or equal to the terminal settling velocity, the estimated mass-transfer rates allow 0.1 mm particles of fluoride salt to dissolve in minutes at 25 °C in water containing no other dissolved salts. Much larger solids, such as the 6-mm chunks that have been seen in heels, could take a few hours to more than a week to dissolve. The actual dissolution times will depend strongly on the actual slip velocity, the extent of particle suspension, constraint by surface reaction rates, the ratio of solvent to solid, and the presence of common ions that shift the solubility equilibria to restrict dissolution of fluoride salts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume I – Predicting Initial Microstructures

This report summarizes the current state of modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial structure and properties of material in components assembled using advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs). The report is the first volume in a two-volume series. This first volume focuses on predicting initial microstructures of AM material. The second volume discusses predicting material properties given the initial microstructure. The focus is on technologies of particular relevance to the design and manufacture of nuclear reactor components. The purpose of the report is to help develop the technical knowledge base to support regulatory decisions that will be needed to assess nuclear components manufactured with AMTs as these components are installed at nuclear power plants (NPPs). The report develops a list of AMTs of particular interest to the NRC and summarizes the key microstructural features and corresponding processing parameters relevant to each technology. Further sections describe available physically-based and data-driven prediction methods and survey widely available software tools. The report concludes with a summary of gaps that may be of particular interest to the NRC when evaluating modeling and simulation methods for AMTs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Interactions between molecular-scale processes and hyporheic exchange for understanding Fe-S-C cycling in riparian wetlands (Final Report)

Wetlands represent some of the most productive ecosystems on the planet and critically influence global environmental health. Specifically, wetlands promote water quality by transforming nutrients and organic compounds and sequestering metals and contaminants. Riparian wetland hyporheic zones, where toxic surface water and anoxic groundwater mix, exhibit dynamic conditions that drive steep redox gradients and promote hotspots of diverse and fluctuating microbial activity. Changes in climate, water quality, and water quantity can disturb hydrologic flow and biogeochemical processing in these environments. Understanding how sulfate loading, impacted by hydrologic flux and anthropogenic inputs, influences iron and carbon cycling in wetlands will be crucial for predicting water quality issues driven by iron mineral precipitation and sorption, such as the release of heavy metals and other toxic elements. We used a fully integrated multi-scale and multi-method approach to develop a mechanistic understanding of how hydrologic flow influences coupled iron and sulfur cycles in riparian wetlands. This entailed hydrological, geochemical, and microbial observations at two locations: an anthropogenic sulfate-impacted riparian wetland in northern Minnesota, and a low-sulfate Fe-rich riparian wetland in Tims Branch at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These sites were characterized by hydrologically dynamic conditions where the stream and wetland systems oscillated between gaining (upward flow) and losing (downward flow) conditions that recharged the system occasionally with oxidants that fueled a variety of biogeochemical reactions. Aqueous geochemical measurements of surface water, groundwater, and porewater samples were made alongside solid-phase geochemical analyses of sediment gravity cores. Bulk X-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Advanced Photon Source (APS; Argonne) interrogated the speciation and distribution of Fe and S mineral phases of the sediments. Interestingly, it was discovered that, despite strongly reducing conditions, Fe(III) compounds and a variety of intermediate valence S compounds were stable in the subsurface. Indeed, compounds like thiosulfate, S(0), and intermediate valence organosulfur compounds were more prevalent than FeS and pyrite. The composition of the sediments did change with changes in hydrologic flow, showing their reactivity in changing redox conditions. The abundance of these intermediate S compounds was likely formed as a result of anaerobic oxidation by aqueous and solid-phase Fe(III) compounds, fueling a cryptic S cycle that is driving the breakdown of organic matter in the hyporheic zone. Microbiome surveys showed a core community that seemed stable across the landscape, but changed with increasing depth into the sediment. The community composition did not seem to change dramatically with changes in season or hydrologic flow, except for some organisms that have the potential to contribute to S cycling. More work is needed to confirm their functional activity. These fine process-scale analyses were placed within a dynamic field context using physical flow parameters from surface water and groundwater level measurements. These data helped shed light on sulfur-driven biogeochemical processes in hydrologically dynamic riparian wetlands, addressing a gap in our understanding about the impacts of pollution and other anthropogenic changes on ecologically sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connecting Minds: AI Use Cases to Bridge Power Systems and Large Language Models for Practical Applications

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and development of large language models (LLMs) present the opportunity to develop a new generation of power systems applications. In contrast with early power system AI applications based on structured numerical data, LLMs offer unique capabilities to perform logical reasoning using text documents, unstructured data, and application programming interface (API) calls to computational software. This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap between power systems engineers and LLM developers through a crosscutting explanation of use cases, characteristics, requirements, practical considerations from the perspectives of both LLM capabilities and industry needs. Specific focus is given to applications that can be realistically deployed by electric utilities. After introducing the architecture of LLMs and unique challenges of the power systems domain, this paper proposes twenty representative LLM applications grouped into categories of 1) power system operations, 2) asset management, 3) system planning and analytics, and 4) energy management and protection systems. Five use cases are presented within each category with descriptions of the motivation, objectives, approaches, example inputs / outputs, and benefits of each use case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Multiscale Analysis: Buildings Focus

This project aims to develop multi-scale building energy data, potentially improving the representation of the U.S. buildings sector in GCAM-USA, an U.S.-focused human-energy-Earth systems model. Existing building energy datasets are typically limited to national or regional levels, which constrains the ability of models to capture fine-scale human-energy-Earth systems interactions and reduces their relevance for decision-making on issues such as energy security, resilience, and energy planning. By leveraging AI and advanced data integration methods, this work fuses multiple existing datasets to enhance the physical and geographic representation of both residential and commercial building energy use. So far, progress includes processing residential building data, designing the data structure for commercial buildings, and testing AI approaches for integrating datasets and addressing spatial-temporal gaps. This effort can not only advances GCAM-USA’s capability in modeling the buildings sector but also supports broader DOE missions, such as developing digital testbeds, enhancing grid resilience analysis, and improving building–energy system modeling at decision-relevant scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗