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NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗

NASA NTRS2020

How Long Is Too Long? Variogram Analysis of AERONET Data to Aid Aerosol Validation and Intercomparison Studies

Geophysical data sets derived from satellite sensors, ground/airborne instrumentation, and computational models are often compared against each other. A common example is the validation of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals against measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. Spatiotemporal mismatch between data set sampling means that uncaptured variation in the underlying geophysical field introduces apparent disagreement into such comparisons, known as representation or collocation matchup uncertainty. This study uses variogram analysis of AERONET data to estimate temporal mismatch uncertainties and decorrelation time scales for the global AERONET record. As well as total AOD, the fine‐ and coarse‐mode AODs, Ångström Exponent (AE), and fine‐mode fraction (FMF) of AOD are analyzed. Globally, a time difference of 30 min typically induces from 0.011–0.035 variation in AOD. For total, fine, and coarse AODs the typical time to decorrelation is around 2–10 days. For AE and FMF it is 3–33 days; that is, aerosol systems often persist significantly longer than individual events in them. Biomass burning regions tend to show the largest and fastest subdaily AOD variability and also longest times to decorrelation. Some sites show significant season‐to‐season variations in behavior. These results can be used to inform site‐specific time collocation thresholds for aerosol validation analyses and account for temporal variation when estimating data set uncertainty. They also have implications for comparisons between different satellite products or models, data aggregation, and time series analyses. Results are provided on a site‐by‐site basis to facilitate use by other researchers.

satellite↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Alternative Architectures for a 2024 Lunar Sortie

This study focused on performing a broad analysis of lunar architectures to identify key alternatives capable of performing a 2024 human lunar landing mission. The goal of the study was to identify architecture alternatives which exhibit robustness, as measured by launch vehicle payload margin, to absorb the natural growth that occurs during design maturation. The study consisted of up to three element architectures which perform the mission from cis-lunar aggregation, through the surface sortie, and return to cis-lunar space. More than 600,000 data points were evaluated utilizing a novel architecture synthesis framework currently being developed by NASA/MSFC. Key findings from the study indicate that architecture complexity can be reduced by minimizing the number of discrete, unique architecture elements, which in turn translates into reduced design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) complexity. It was identified that heavy lift launch vehicles enable such architectures while also providing significant increases to launch vehicle margin over existing and near-term commercial launch vehicle (CLV) performance expected in the 2024 time frame. Additionally, the study identified storable propellant based lander architectures as leading alternatives in achieving a 2024 human lunar landing by providing reduced technology needs and development schedules.

Architecture Analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OCO-2 Satellite-imposed Constraints on Terrestrial Biospheric CO2 Flux over South Asia

The spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial biospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) flux over South Asia is poorly understood. The inverse model “top-down” CO2 flux estimates which rely on atmospheric CO2 observational data are impeded by sparse in situ measurements over this region. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provides much needed global retrievals of column-average CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) with the finest spatial and temporal resolution and highest sensitivity to surface fluxes available to-date. This study conducted global inverse model simulations as part of the second OCO-2 Multi-model Intercomparison Project assimilating version 9 of the OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals in land nadir (LN) and land glint (LG) observing modes and global in situ (IS) measurements. The four-dimensional variational assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to estimate CO2 fluxes from 2015 to 2018. We then assessed the spatiotemporal variability of optimized CO2 Net ecosystem Exchange (NEE) fluxes aggregated over the South Asia region. The most robust result found by assimilating OCO-2 observations was the constraints imposed on the seasonal cycle of terrestrial biospheric fluxes over South Asia. The seasonality of South Asian NEE estimated by assimilating OCO-2 or global IS data showed a larger seasonal cycle compared to the current understanding of NEE in this region (represented by the prior NEE used in the model). The satellite-in situ joint inversion (IS + LN + LG) led to land flux seasonal amplitude (absolute magnitude of the difference between peak and trough of monthly mean values over a year) of 4.0 PgC yr-1, compared to the prior model (1.5 PgC yr-1). Moreover, OCO-2 data imposed a phase shift in the seasonal cycle, resulting in a large CO2 source in April and a large uptake in September. Most of the features in the seasonal cycle imposed by OCO-2 data are in agreement with previous “top-down” studies assimilating regional aircraft observations. Nevertheless, we recommend a closer examination of the novel features highlighted by the OCO-2 column data over South Asia in future studies by conducting regional inverse modelling with denser in situ and vertically-resolved regional observations along with satellite data.

OCO-2↗

NASA NTRS2020

Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

climate‐related extreme events↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizations to Aid Decision-Making in the ACCP Value Framework

The Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Value Framework is used to introduce structure, transparency, and traceability into the decision-making process for a study formulating and assessing potential observing system concepts to respond to the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications. Within the Value Framework, visualizations play an important role in presenting information and structuring conversations around that information. This paper describes three guiding principles that were applied to the design of the visualizations of the Value Framework, presents examples of visualizations that serve at least one of several functions (structuring communication, facilitating elicitation and aggregation of data, and summarizing complex information), and identifies lessons learned from the development and implementation of those visualizations. The guiding principles and lessons learned have not only contributed to the success of the Value Framework and the ACCP study, but also can be applied in other decision-making activities.

Christopher A. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How the Allocation of Lander Functions Impacts Human Lunar Exploration Architecture Propellant Demands

As NASA looks to the moon as a proving ground for the technologies required to conduct the first human exploration campaign of Mars, this study assesses the potential propellant demands that a sustained human lunar presence would require. In particular, this study evaluates how the allocation and distribution of vehicle functions to a different number of vehicles can impact the propellant required to conduct a human lunar exploration mission. Four different transportation architectures for human lunar exploration and three different refueling assumptions were defined. The impact on the propellant required for a mission was assessed for all architectures and refueling assumptions for ranges of crew payload mass, vehicle inert mass fraction, and a sensitivity to the mission maneuver velocity magnitudes. The results of this analysis show that aggregating vehicle functions to a single-stage lander vehicle can have a positive impact on the architecture's level of vehicle reusability and that an increase in the number of refueling opportunities reduces the mass of the vehicles and of the propellant required per mission.

Matteo A. Clark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizations to Aid Decision-Making in the ACCP Value Framework

Christopher A Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗

NASA NTRS2020

Amazonia Disasters: Assessing Methods for Gold Mining-related Deforestation Detection in Amazonia Using NASA Earth Observations

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is responsible for a large fraction of deforestation and disturbance in Amazonia. These activities cause severe impacts on the rainforest ecosystem and socioeconomic state of the region. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Asociación para la Conservación de la Cuenca Amazónica (ACCA), NASA SERVIR Science Coordination Office, and the Spatial Informatics Group to enhance ASGM-related deforestation detection methods. ACCA currently uses the Omnibus Q-test Change Point Detection Algorithm to identify changes in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) monthly-aggregated temporal data from the Sentinel-1 satellite. The team determined the algorithm's accuracy by comparing a stratified random sample of change points against data from January 2019 to June 2020 identified using PlanetScope and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) Earth observations through Collect Earth Online. Our results indicated a users' accuracy of 55% for temporal change detection and producer's and user's accuracies of 99% and 97%, respectively, for detecting when change did not occur. Of the labeled change points, only 19% were due to mining activity. This research can help our partners have a more accurate understanding of where illegal gold mining may be taking place and inform decisions to remediate this activity.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2020

Montana Water Resources: Developing a Composite Moisture Index Utilizing NASA Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin provides irrigation water for a substantial part of the domestic agricultural sector within the United States. Drought events pose a significant threat to the economic livelihoods of dependent individuals, industries, and ecosystems (e.g. farmers, local tribes, hydroelectric power, wildlife). In 2017 alone, the Missouri River Basin experienced a severe drought that resulted in a $2.6 billion loss to the U.S. Northern Plains. In response to such events, organizations throughout the basin, such as the Montana Climate Office, have dedicated efforts for drought monitoring and communicating relevant information to local stakeholders. In an effort to aid regional decision-making capabilities, the project team partnered with the Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, and NOAA Regional Climate Services, Central Region to create a monthly Composite Moisture Index (CMI) that relies on NASA Earth observations from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. From these satellites, as well as the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), our team aggregated climate datasets including soil moisture, snow cover, snow depth, and snow water equivalent to compute a CMI that indicates regional moisture conditions during the winter months. The March CMI values produced over the Missouri River headwater subbasin strongly correlate (r = 0.75) with spring and early summer stream discharge, demonstrating the use of this metric to indicate moisture conditions for the snowmelt and growing seasons.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2020

Amazonia Disasters: Assessing Methods for Gold Mining-Related Deforestation Detection in Amazonia Using NASA Earth Observations

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

NASA NTRS2020

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, From Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging II: The Williams Flats Fire during the FIREX-AQ Campaign

Although the characteristics of biomass burning events and the ambient ecosystem determine emitted smoke composition, the conditions that modulate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation are not well understood, nor are the spatial or temporal frequency of factors driving smoke particle evolution, such as hydration, coagulation, and oxidation, all of which impact smoke radiative forcing. In situ data from surface observation sites and aircraft field campaigns offer deep insight into the optical, chemical, and microphysical traits of biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosols, such as single scattering albedo (SSA) and size distribution, but cannot by themselves provide robust statistical characterization of both emitted and evolved particles. Data from the NASA Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument can provide at least a partial picture of BB particle properties and their evolution downwind, once properly validated. Here we use in situ data from the joint NOAA/NASA 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment-Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of MISR-derived constraints on particle size, shape, light-absorption, and its spectral slope, as well as plume height and associated wind vectors. Based on the satellite observations, we also offer inferences about aging mechanisms effecting downwind particle evolution, such as gravitational settling, oxidation, secondary particle formation, and the combination of particle aggregation and condensational growth. This work builds upon our previous study, adding confidence to our interpretation of the remote-sensing data based on an expanded suite of in situ measurements for validation. The satellite and in situ measurements offer similar characterizations of particle property evolution as a function of smoke age for the 06 August Williams Flats Fire, and most of the key differences in particle size and absorption can be attributed to differences in sampling and changes in the plume geometry between sampling times. Whereas the aircraft data provide validation for the MISR retrievals, the satellite data offer a spatially continuous mapping of particle properties over the plume, which helps identify trends in particle property downwind evolution that are ambiguous in the sparsely sampled aircraft transects. The MISR data record is more than two decades long, offering future opportunities to study regional wildfire plume behavior statistically, where aircraft data are limited or entirely lacking.

biomass burning↗

NASA NTRS2020

Volatile-rich Asteroids in the Inner Solar System

Bennu (101195), target of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security, Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission, is a type-B asteroid with abundant spectral evidence for hydrated silicates, low thermal inertia “boulders” and frequent bursts of particle emission. We suggest that Bennu’s parent body formed in the outer solar system before it was perturbed into the asteroid belt and then evolved into a near-Earth object. We show that this is consistent with models of planetesimal evolution. Bennu has many characteristics expected for a dormant comet, and could potentially contain a minimum of 1 wt.% adsorbed water if its gross mineralogy is consistent with the Orgueil meteorite. This is in addition to any ice or water contained within the hydrous minerals themselves. Based on this hypothesis, we predict the properties of the samples that will be returned to Earth by the OSIRIS-REx mission, including abundant phyllosilicate minerals, amorphous hydrated silicates and low-density, very high-porosity aggregates, already observed by the OSIRIS-REx instrument suite. We predict enrichments in D/H and 15N/14N, high C/Mg ratios (>∼7 wt%), and a greater range of organic compositions than found in meteorites, including an organic component poor in aromatics, and a more labile organic fraction. Ammonium salts, ranging from NH4Cl to ammonium–organic acid salts could carry much of the nitrogen in comets, yet only NH4CH3COO and heavier salts are sufficiently stable to be found in these returned samples. Water adsorbed onto highly porous grains should also be detected provided that the sample return capsule remains below 300 K during Earth return, and this water should be isotopically heavy.

Joseph A. Nuth, III↗

NASA NTRS2020

The NASA MODIS-VIIRS Continuity Cloud Optical Properties Products

The NASA Aqua MODIS and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) climate data record continuity cloud properties products (CLDPROP) were publicly released in April 2019 with an update later that year (Version 1.1). These cloud products, having heritage with the NASA Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD06 cloud optical properties product and the NOAA GOES-R Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Cloud Height Algorithm (ACHA), represent an effort to bridge the multispectral imager records of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) and NOAA’s current generation of operational weather satellites to achieve a continuous, multi-decadal climate data record for clouds that can extend well into the 2030s. CLDPROP offers a “continuity of approach,” applying common algorithms and ancillary datasets to both MODIS and VIIRS, including utilizing only a subset of spectral channels available on both sensors to help mitigate instrument differences. The initial release of the CLDPROP_MODIS and CLDPROP_VIIRS data records spans the SNPP observational record (2012-present). Here, we present an overview of the algorithms and an evaluation of the intersensor continuity of the core CLDPROP_MODIS and CLDPROP_VIIRS cloud optical property datasets, i.e., cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, effective particle size, and derived water path. The evaluation includes analyses of pixel-level MODIS/VIIRS co-locations as well as spatial and temporal aggregated statistics, with a focus on identifying and understanding the root causes of individual dataset discontinuities. The results of this evaluation will inform future updates to the CLDPROP products and help scientific users determine the appropriate use of the product datasets for their specific needs.

satellite remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2020

Did a Complex Carbon Cycle Operate in the Inner Solar System?

Solids in the interstellar medium consist of an intimate mixture of silicate and carbonaceous grains. Because 99% of silicates in meteorites were reprocessed at high temperatures in the inner regions of the Solar Nebula, we propose that similar levels of heating of carbonaceous materials in the oxygen-rich Solar Nebula would have converted nearly all carbon in dust and grain coatings to CO. We discuss catalytic experiments on a variety of grain surfaces that not only produce gas phase species such as CH4, C2H6, C6H6, C6H5OH, or CH3CN, but also produce carbonaceous solids and fibers that would be much more readily incorporated into growing planetesimals. CH4 and other more volatile products of these surface-mediated reactions were likely transported outwards along with chondrule fragments and small Calcium Aluminum-rich Inclusions (CAIs) to enhance the organic content in the outer regions of the nebula where comets formed. Carbonaceous fibers formed on the surfaces of refractory oxides may have significantly improved the aggregation efficiency of chondrules and CAIs. Carbonaceous fibers incorporated into chondritic parent bodies might have served as the carbon source for the generation of more complex organic species during thermal or hydrous metamorphic processes on the evolving asteroid.

Joseph A Nuth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Single-Scattering Properties of Melting Precipitation for GPM Passive Microwave and Radar Remote Sensing Applications

Over the past two decades, detailed computational simulations of the intricate three dimensional structures of ice-phase crystals and aggregates of those crystals have been developed. The microwave single-scattering properties of these simulated ice particles have been computed and used to improve quantitative estimates of snow rates and to better deRne the vertical structure of snow water contents in deep convective systems, as derived from satellite-borne passive microwave and/or radar remote sensing measurements. The same icephase particles have more recently been used as the starting point for simulations of melting precipitation using computational melting methods. In the current study, a heuristic melting method, as well as a physically-based melting procedure based on smoothed-particle hydrodynamics, are applied to ice particle models to describe the full evolution of the particles from dry snow to liquid drops. The discrete dipole approximation is utilized to calculate the single-scattering properties of the mixed-phase particles throughout the melting process. Then, the properties of the particles are “mapped” into simpliRed microphysical simulations of particle size spectra in the melting layers of stratiform, precipitating clouds. The bulk single-scattering properties of the melting layers and the sensitivity of their properties to modeling assumptions are explored, and the implications for combined radar-radiometer precipitation remote sensing from GPM are discussed.

William S Olson↗