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At least 1,693 records · Page 94

Discovery of fast-moving oxygen filaments in Puppis A

A number of faint filaments in the Puppis A supernova remnant have been found to have spectra with strong oxygen lines, extremely weak Balmer lines, and radial velocities greater than 1500 km/s. These are very different from the bright filaments, which are nitrogen-rich and have velocities less than 300 km/s. The newly discovered filaments are spectroscopically similar to those found in young, oxygen-rich remnants, as typified by the fast-moving knots in Cas A. These Puppis A filaments are interpreted as knots of oxygen-rich supernova ejecta which remain relatively uncontaminated by interstellar material, despite the probable age of Puppis A of several thousand years. Spectra of the newly discovered filaments show, in addition to strong forbidden lines of O I, O II, and O III, permitted lines of O I: 7774, 8446 A. The permitted lines are attributed to recombination of O(+), and their strength relative to H is used to estimate that the O:H mass ratio is about 30.

Winkler, P. F.↗

Actinides in the Source of Cosmic Rays and the Present Interstellar Medium

The abundances of the actinide elements in the cosmic rays can provide critical constraints on the major sites of their acceleration. Using recent calculations of the r-process yields in core collapse supernovae, we have determined the actinide abundances averaged over various assumed time intervals for their supernova generation and their cosmic-ray acceleration. Using standard Galactic chemical evolution models, we have also determined the expected actinide abundances in the present interstellar medium. From these two components, we have calculated the U/Th and other actinide abundances expected in the supernova-active cores of superbubbles, as a function of their ages and mean metallicity resulting from dilution with interstellar cloud debris. Then, using observations of the fractions of Galactic supernovae that occur in superbubbles and in the rest of the interstellar medium, we calculate the expected actinide abundances in cosmic rays accelerated by Galactic supernovae. We find that the current measurements of actinide/Pt-group and preliminary estimates of the UPuCm/Th ratio in cosmic rays are all consistent with the expected values if superbubble cores have mean metallicities of around 3 times solar. Such metallicities are quite comparable to the superbubble core metallicities inferred from other cosmic-ray observations. Future, more precise measurements of these ratios with experiments such as ECCO are needed to provide a better measure of the mean source metallicity sampled by the local Galactic cosmic rays. Measurements of the cosmic- ray actinide abundances have been favorably compared with the protosolar ratio, inferred from present solar system abundances, to infer that the cosmic rays are accelerated from the general interstellar medium. We suggest, however, that such an inference is not valid because the expected actinide abundances in the present interstellar medium are very different from the protosolar values, which sampled the interstellar medium 4.5 Gyr ago and included an additional fresh ejecta component from a neighboring supernova.

Lingenfelter, R. E.↗

A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

Bauer, S. E.↗

Aging Effect Analysis of PV Inverter Semiconductors for Ancillary Services Support

PV inverters can provide reactive power while generating active power. An ongoing microgrid implementation at Duke Energy actively engages non-utility PVs to generate/absorb reactive power in support of ancillary services to increase microgrid resiliency during extreme events. PV systems are requested to provide reactive power support: 1) in response to grid voltage variation to better regulate the local voltage; or 2) in response to utility incentives, such as following Transactive Energy System (TES) incentives. However, providing ancillary services might shorten the lifetime expectation of PV inverter semiconductors. This paper summarizes the potential impacts on a PV inverter semiconductor's lifetime when providing ancillary services. The analysis presented in this research work shows that providing reactive power support will increase the mean junction temperature and the junction temperature variation of the inverter diodes. This increased junction temperature will eventually lead to shorter diode lifetime. The lifetime estimation of semiconductors is briefly reviewed. The power losses of PV inverter semiconductors are derived as a support analysis to the junction temperature calculation. In addition, the impact of the filtering inductor on the semiconductor current distribution is discussed. The theoretical analysis presented in this research work is supported by simulation results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Policy, Permit, Perform: Using City Benchmarking Data and Building Construction Permit History to Identify Energy Performance Improvements

The City of Portland (City) and Multnomah County 2015 Climate Action Plan targets a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. To reach this goal, the plan includes a key objective to reduce the total energy use of existing buildings by 25 percent. Buildings are responsible for one-half of carbon emissions in Portland, Oregon, U.S., and improving their performance is critical to achieving the City’s climate goals. As part of its climate action planning, the City passed an ordinance on April 22, 2015, requiring commercial buildings 20,000 ft2 and larger to benchmark and disclose annual energy performance metrics through ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager® (ESPM), including greenhouse gas emissions, building energy use intensity (EUI) and ENERGY STAR scores. Twenty-five cities in the U.S. have adopted similar policies requiring energy benchmarking. These policies are generating a treasure trove of data about the drivers of building performance, but practitioners are only beginning to link benchmarking data to other datasets to produce actionable insight into improving building performance. In 2016, the City received a financial assistance award from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning project (Award Number DE-0007737). Portland’s project evaluated the application of the DOE Building Energy Asset Score Tool and rating system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to commercial buildings that report to the City. The City used building construction permit history to develop Asset Scores for a set of office buildings that reported energy performance for 2015 – the first year the City mandated energy benchmarking and reporting for commercial buildings 50,000 ft2 and larger. The primary project objective was to link energy benchmarking data and commercial building permit data to analyze commercial buildings systems that present the best, specific opportunities to improve energy performance. Integrating these datasets from two City departments, the Bureau of Development Services and the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability, could expand Portland’s use of analytics to inform climate policy decisions and strategic targeting of financial incentives for building owners and managers who are best positioned to improve the performance of their buildings. The project began with the commercial benchmarking data received for 340 commercial buildings that submitted calendar year 2015 energy reports. The City retained Research Into Action and Energy 350 (RIA team) to evaluate this self-reported benchmarking data. Based on a survey of 53 building managers, the RIA team found that most respondents used the City’s compliance tools, including a How-to Guide and Help Desk, and found access to utility data to be straightforward. However, almost one-third of the respondents encountered challenges when estimating the gross floor area (GFA), and some experienced confusion regarding the input of property use types and details into ESPM. Based on the RIA team’s recommendations, the City refined its How-to Guide, created online answers to frequently asked questions, and hosted office hour sessions to help building managers accurately characterize their building’s physical characteristics and operations in ESPM. Concurrently with the RIA team’s evaluation, the City worked with PNNL to estimate DOE Asset Score Preview (Preview) scores for 181 of the 340 commercial buildings that submitted ESPM reports to the City. Asset Score Tool is a web-based tool developed by PNNL for DOE to evaluate and rate the as-built energy efficiency of a building. Asset Score Tool’s full analysis capability runs a detailed energy model based on building geometry, age, envelope, lighting and mechanical systems using standard operating assumptions to give the building a score, similar to a miles per gallon rating for a car. Preview, a simplified deployment of the full Asset Score Tool, provides a preliminary score range using only seven data points, six of which are readily available in the ESPM benchmarking data. Analysis of the combined Preview scores and the operational ESPM scores identified buildings with a high potential for energy improvements through either retro-commissioning and retuning of existing operations or capital investments into building systems. The City contracted Whole Building Solutions (WBS) to mine building permit history and develop full Asset Scores for a subset of 26 office buildings that were eligible for both ENERGY STAR scores and Asset Scores. WBS researched permits and building plans to identify mechanical, lighting and envelope systems and other building characteristics necessary to complete Asset Scores. This historical data was recorded using the web-based Asset Score Tool, which evaluates the as designed energy efficiency of existing buildings. Much of this City information was available online after 2010; however, WBS had to search through microfiche files and the City’s database to obtain permit and plan history prior to 2010. Although building geometry, mechanical system type and basic envelope information was consistently identifiable, WBS found permit data gaps that prevented complete and accurate Asset Scores for most of the office buildings. If the City decides to develop Asset Scores based on building permit information in the future, WBS recommended requiring lighting plans, control diagrams and as-built drawings that reflect how the buildings are actually constructed. In addition, WBS recommended uploading plans and permits from microfiche storage into a more comprehensive, searchable database consistent with the City’s current online permit information. To identify the actual lighting types, WBS and City staff conducted site visits of all 26 office buildings. As part of managing the flow of ESPM and Asset Score data for the project, Earth Advantage, a sub-recipient of the Cities-LEAP award, created a DOE Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) (USDOE 2018) instance for the City and used Asset Score’s Application Programming Interface (API) (Asset Score 2018) capabilities to develop two new features in the SEED Platform™: (1) automated Asset Score Preview ranges calculated based on benchmarking data and the City’s estimate of number of building floors; and (2) storage of full Asset Score information. Leveraging the construction permit history and site visit information for the 26 office buildings, The Cadmus Group (Cadmus) analyzed benchmarking data and Asset Score information to identify opportunities and drivers to improve performance. Correlation and regression analysis of the combined dataset was completed to determine whether building operations or specific systems – mechanical, lighting or envelope – present the best opportunities to improve energy performance. The central outcome of this project was Cadmus’ detailed analysis of the richer dataset that was created by combining the City of Portland’s commercial building permit activity and building-specific energy performance information based on metrics from ESPM and Asset Score Tool. Some of their findings collaborate with well-known facts, such as buildings with less efficient lighting systems are good targets for efficiency improvements through lighting upgrades. This analysis also helped identify that individual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment efficiency does not necessarily correlate with building performance. However, overall HVAC system performance, as measured with the Total System Performance Ratio (TSPR) metric, is a better indicator of building performance (Goel et al. 2014). As a metric, TSPR considers whole system performance that includes equipment efficiency and system controls, such as resets for static pressure and chilled water setpoints, which can be more effective and financially feasible options for improving building performance. Given the high cost associated with envelope retrofits, opportunities to upgrade envelope insulation are likely to be limited. However, buildings with single-pane and non-thermal break windows are good candidates for window replacements, such as upgrading to double-pane windows with thermal breaks. This research project determined that developing Asset Scores based on site visits is preferable to mining City building permit data. In addition, the use of benchmarking data to develop Asset Score Preview Scores is recommended as a first step in engaging building managers to develop full Asset Scores. Asset Score Tool outputs can help building managers quickly identify opportunities for improvement and then work with the utility incentive administrator and energy service providers to develop their retrofit plan. Where full Asset Scores are available, analysis using a quadrant matrix with ENERGY STAR scores is recommended to identify buildings that present the best opportunities for operational-behavioral improvements versus ones with opportunities for upgrades to physical building systems. This workflow and the tools will help cities, utility incentive administrators, building portfolio managers and energy service providers develop energy programs and strategies for screening and analysis of buildings with the greatest energy savings potential. This report describes the project approach and research results to inform future coordination of ESPM and Asset Score data, including the use of benchmarking data to generate Preview scores. Given better awareness of energy performance, building managers can make more informed decisions to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. With cities, states and jurisdictions adopting benchmarking and auditing ordinances, there are substantial amounts of data submitted to cities that could be used to inform investments in energy efficiency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydrology in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Fragmentation to Coherent Terrestrial Hydrosphere Science

The rapid rise of machine learning (ML) in hydrology has prompted debate about the discipline's scientific relevance. While ML often outperforms traditional models in streamflow prediction, we argue that this reflects a deeper limitation: persistent fragmentation of hydrological science itself. Narrow focus on isolated components has hindered the development of coherent, scale‐relevant understanding of the integrated terrestrial hydrosphere. This is illustrated, for example, by widely divergent estimates of groundwater–streamflow interactions and of water balance‐implied ongoing storage changes. We argue that hydrology's future lies not in choosing between ML and physics, but in integrating data‐driven and process‐based approaches to advance consistent, realistic, and societally relevant understanding of the terrestrial hydrosphere and its multifaceted roles in the Earth System.

Painter, Scott L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Aging of galaxies along the morphological sequence, marked by bulge growth and disk quenching

Aims: We revisit the color bimodality of galaxies using the extensive EFIGI morphological classification of nearby galaxies. Methods: The galaxy profiles from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) gri images were decomposed as a bulge and a disk by controlled profile modeling with the Euclid SourceXtractor++ software. The spectral energy distributions from our resulting gri SDSS photometry complemented with Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) NUV photometry were fitted with the ZPEG software and PEGASE.2 templates in order to estimate the stellar masses and specific star formation rates (sSFR) of whole galaxies as well as their bulge and disk components. Results: The absolute NUV-r color versus stellar mass diagram shows a continuous relationship between the present sSFR of galaxies and their stellar mass, which spans all morphological types of the Hubble sequence monotonously. Irregular galaxies to intermediate-type Sab spirals make up the “Blue Cloud” across 4 orders of magnitude in stellar mass but a narrow range of sSFR. This mass build-up of spiral galaxies requires major mergers, in agreement with their frequently perturbed isophotes. At high mass, the Blue Cloud leads to the “Green Plain”, dominated by S0a and Sa early-type spirals. It was formerly called the “Green Valley”, due to its low density, but we rename it because of its wide stretch and nearly flat density over ~2 mag in NUV-r color (hence sSFR), despite a limited range of stellar mass (1 order of magnitude). The Green Plain links up the “Red Sequence”, containing all lenticular and elliptical galaxies with a 2 order of magnitude mass interval, and systematically higher masses for the ellipticals. We confirm that the Green Plain cannot be studied using u - r optical colors because it is overlayed by the Red Sequence, hence NUV data are necessary. Galaxies across the Green Plain undergo a marked growth by a factor 2 to 3 in their bulge-to-total mass ratio and a systematic profile change from pseudo to classical bulges, as well as a significant reddening due to star formation fading in their disks. The Green Plain is also characterized by a maximum stellar mass of 10 11.7 M ⊙ beyond which only elliptical galaxies exist, hence supporting the scenario of ellipticals partly forming by major mergers of massive disk galaxies. Conclusions: The EFIGI attributes indicate that dynamical processes (spiral arms and isophote distortions) contribute to the scatter of the Main Sequence of star-forming galaxies (Blue Cloud), via the enhancement of star formation (flocculence, HII regions). The significant bulge growth across the Green Plain confirms that it is a transition region, and excludes a predominantly quick transit due to rapid quenching. The high frequency of bars for all spirals as well as the stronger spiral arms and flocculence in the knee of the Green Plain suggest that internal dynamics, likely triggered by flybys or (mainly minor) mergers, may be the key to the bulge growth of massive disk galaxies, which is a marker of the aging of galaxies from star forming to quiescence. The Hubble sequence can then be considered as an inverse sequence of galaxy physical evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗

Estimation of skeletal muscle mass from body creatine content

Procedures have been developed for studying the effect of changes in gravitational loading on skeletal muscle mass through measurements of the body creatine content. These procedures were developed for studies of gravitational scale effects in a four-species model, comprising the hamster, rat, guinea pig, and rabbit, which provides a sufficient range of body size for assessment of allometric parameters. Since intracellular muscle creatine concentration varies among species, and with age within a given species, the concentration values for metabolically mature individuals of these four species were established. The creatine content of the carcass, skin, viscera, smooth muscle, and skeletal muscle was determined for each species. In addition, the skeletal muscle mass of the major body components was determined, as well as the total and fat-free masses of the body and carcass, and the percent skeletal muscle in each. It is concluded that these procedures are particularly useful for studying the effect of gravitational loading on the skeletal muscle content of the animal carcass, which is the principal weight-bearing organ of the body.

Pace, N.↗

Seasat observations of lithospheric flexure seaward of trenches

Lithospheric flexure seaward of deep ocean trenches is evident in Seasat altimeter observations of the marine geoid. In fact, mechanical models of lithospheric flexure can be tested directly on the Seasat altimeter data. A simple elastic model has been used for the oceanic lithosphere and, after least squares adjustments, estimates have been recovered of model parameters including outer rise (OR) amplitude, OR wavelength, and effective lithospheric thickness. Effective lithospheric thicknesses have been recovered for six regions: the Mariana, the Kuril, the Philippine, the Aleutian, the Izu-Bonin, and the Middle America OR's. These results support the proposition that effective thickness Te increases with age of lithosphere in approximate accord with the relation Te approximately C x square root of age where C approximately 4 km/square root of (m.y.). In fact, altimetric results agree more closely with this relation than do published results based on bathymetric data. The close agreement with the thickness-age relation suggests that there is no longer any need to assume that significant horizontal compression acts across the Kuril, Marianas, and Izu-Bonin trenches. This thickness-age relation implies that flexural strength of the oceanic lithosphere is temperature controlled.

Mcadoo, D. C.↗

Recent deformation rates on Venus

Constraints on the recent geological evolution of Venus may be provided by quantitative estimates of the rates of the principal resurfacing processes, volcanism and tectonism. This paper focuses on the latter, using impact craters as strain indicators. The total postimpact tectonic strain lies in the range 0.5-6.5%, which defines a recent mean strain rate of 10(exp -18)-10(exp -17)/s when divided by the mean surface age. Interpretation of the cratering record as one of pure production requires a decline in resurfacing rates at about 500 Ma (catastrophic resurfacing model). If distributed tectonic resurfacing contributed strongly before that time, as suggested by the widespread occurrence of tessera as inliers, the mean global strain rate must have been at least approximately 10(exp -15)/s, which is also typical of terrestrial active margins. Numerical calculations of the response of the lithosphere to inferred mantle convective forces were performed to test the hypothesis that a decrease in surface strain rate by at least two orders of magnitude could be caused by a steady decline in heat flow over the last billion years. Parameterized convection models predict that the mean global thermal gradient decreases by only about 5 K/km over this time; even with the exponential dependence of viscosity upon temperature, the surface strain rate drops by little more than one order of magnitude. Strongly unsteady cooling and very low thermal gradients today are necessary to satisfy the catastrophic model. An alternative, uniformitarian resurfacing hypothesis holds that Venus is resurfaced in quasi-random 'patches' several hundred kilometers in size that occur in response to changing mantle convection patterns.

Grimm, Robert E.↗

Precise Radiometric Age Establishes Yarrabubba, Western Australia, as Earth's Oldest Recognised Meteorite Impact Structure

The ~70 km-diameter Yarrabubba impact structure in Western Australia is regarded as among Earth’s oldest, but has hitherto lacked precise age constraints. Here we present U-Pb ages for impact21 driven shock recrystallised accessory minerals. Shock-recrystallised monazite yields a precise impact age of 2229 ± 5 Ma, coeval with shock-reset zircon. This result establishes Yarrabubba as the oldest recognized meteorite impact structure on Earth, extending the terrestrial cratering record back >200 million years. The age of Yarrabubba coincides, within uncertainty, with temporal constraint for the youngest Palaeoproterozoic glacial deposits, the Rietfontein diamictite in South Africa. Numerical impact simulations indicate that a 70 km-diameter crater into a continental glacier could release between 8.7x1013 to 5.0x1015 kg of H2O vapour instantaneously into the atmosphere. These results provide new estimates of impact-produced H2O vapour abundances for models investigating termination of the Paleoproterozoic glaciations, and highlight the possible role of impact cratering in modifying Earth’s climate.

Impact cratering↗

Coronal Activity in Low-Mass Pre-Main Sequence Stars: NGC 2264

We present the preliminary results of an analysis of ROSAT images in the region of the populous young (age approx. 3 Myr) star-forming region NGC 2264. The cluster was imaged with the ROSAT HRI in two sets of pointings -- one set near the central region of the cluster, centered on the star LW Mon, and the other set in the southern part of the cluster, centered near the star V428 Mon, just south of the Cone Nebula. In total 113 unique X-ray sources have been identified in the ROSAT images with signal-to-noise ratios greater than 3. The limiting luminosities (log Lx(ergs/sec)) for 3-sigma detections are estimated to be 30.18, 30.23, and 30.08 for the northern field, southern field, and overlap region between the two fields respectively. Extensive optical photometry, classification spectroscopy, and proper motions, obtained from recent ground-based surveys of this region, were used to identify the most likely optical counterpart to each X-ray source. Although most of our X-ray selected sample appears to be associated with NGC 2264 members, we find that the vast majority of the cluster membership was undetected in the ROSAT HRI survey. The X-ray cumulative luminosity function for solar-mass stars in NGC 2264 shows that most of the low-mass members probably have X-ray luminosities similar to those seen for the X-ray brightest members of older clusters such as IC 2391/IC 2602 (age approx. 50 Myr) and the Pleiades (age approx. 100 Myr). This research was funded in part by the SAO Summer Intern Program and NASA grant NAG5-8120.

Tebbe, H. J.↗

Chemical Imaging of Ambient Aerosol Particles: Observational Constraints on Mixing State Parameterization

A new parameterization for quantifying the mixing state of aerosol populations has been applied for the first time to samples of ambient particles analyzed using spectro-microscopy techniques. Scanning transmission x-ray microscopy/near edge x-ray absorption fine structure (STXM/NEXAFS) and computer controlled scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (CCSEM/EDX) were used to probe the composition of the organic and inorganic fraction of individual particles collected on June 27th and 28th during the 2010 Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects (CARES) study in the Central Valley, California. The first field site, T0, was located in downtown Sacramento, while T1 was located near the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Mass estimates of the aerosol particle components were used to calculate mixing state metrics, such as the particle-specific diversity, bulk population diversity, and mixing state index, for each sample. Both microscopy imaging techniques showed more changes over these two days in the mixing state at the T0 site than at the T1 site. The STXM data showed evidence of changes in the mixing state associated with a build-up of organic matter confirmed by collocated measurements and the largest impact on the mixing state was due to an increase in soot dominant particles during this build-up. The CCSEM/EDX analysis showed the presence of two types of particle populations; the first was dominated by aged sea salt particles and had a higher mixing state index (indicating a more homogeneous population), the second was dominated by carbonaceous particles and had a lower mixing state index.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Velocity dispersions and dynamical masses for a large sample of quiescent galaxies at z >1: Improved measures of the growth in mass and size

We present Keck LRIS spectroscopy for a sample of 103 massive (M > 10{sup 10.6} M {sub ☉}) galaxies with redshifts 0.9 < z < 1.6. Of these, 56 are quiescent with high signal-to-noise absorption line spectra, enabling us to determine robust stellar velocity dispersions for the largest sample yet available beyond a redshift of 1. Together with effective radii measured from deep Hubble Space Telescope images, we calculate dynamical masses and address key questions relating to the puzzling size growth claimed by many observers for quiescent galaxies over the redshift interval 0 < z < 2. Our large sample provides the first opportunity to carefully examine the relationship between stellar and dynamical masses at high redshift. We find this relation closely follows that determined locally. We also confirm the utility of the locally established empirical calibration which enables high-redshift velocity dispersions to be estimated photometrically, and we determine its accuracy to be 35%. To address recent suggestions that progenitor bias—the continued arrival of recently quenched larger galaxies—can largely explain the size evolution of quiescent galaxies, we examine the growth at fixed velocity dispersion assuming this quantity is largely unaffected by the merger history. Using the velocity dispersion-age relation observed in the local universe, we demonstrate that significant size and mass growth have clearly occurred in individual systems. Parameterizing the relation between mass and size growth over 0 < z < 1.6 as R∝M {sup α}, we find α = 1.6 ± 0.3, in agreement with theoretical expectations from simulations of minor mergers. Relaxing the assumption that the velocity dispersion is unchanging, we examine growth assuming a constant ranking in galaxy velocity dispersion. This approach is applicable only to the large-dispersion tail of the distribution, but yields a consistent growth rate of α = 1.4 ± 0.2. Both methods confirm that progenitor bias alone is insufficient to explain our new observations and that quiescent galaxies have grown in both size and stellar mass over 0 < z < 1.6.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bio-Oil Separation and Stabilization by Supercritical Fluid Fractionation. 2014 Final Report

The objective of this project is to use supercritical fluids to separate and fractionate algal-based bio-oils into stable products that can be subsequently upgraded to produce drop-in renewable fuels. To accomplish this objective, algae was grown and thermochemically converted to bio-oils using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), pyrolysis, and catalytic pyrolysis. The bio-oils were separated into an extract and a raffinate using near-critical propane or carbon dioxide. The fractions were then subjected to thermal aging studies to determine if the extraction process had stabilized the products. It was found that the propane extract fraction was twice as stable as the parent catalytic pyrolysis bio-oils as measured by the change in viscosity after two weeks of accelerated aging at 80°C. Further, in-situ NMR aging studies found that the propane extract was chemically more stable than the parent bio-oil. Thus the milestone of stabilizing the product was met. A preliminary design of the extraction plant was prepared. The design was based on a depot scale plant processing 20,000,000 gallons per year of bio-oil. It was estimated that the capital costs for such a plant would be $8,700,000 with an operating cost of $3,500,000 per year. On a per gallon of product cost and a 10% annual rate of return, capital costs would represent $0.06 per gallon and operating costs would amount to $0.20 per gallon. Further, it was found that the energy required to run the process represented 6.2% of the energy available in the bio-oil, meeting the milestone of less than 20%. Life cycle analysis and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission analysis found that the energy for running the critical fluid separation process and the GHG emissions were minor compared to all the inputs to the overall well to pump system. For the well to pump system boundary, energetics in biofuel conversion are typically dominated by energy demands in the growth, dewater, and thermochemical process. Bio-oil stabilization by near critical propane extraction had minimal impact in the overall energetics of the process with NER contributions of 0.03. Based on the LCA, the overall conversion pathways were found to be energy intensive with a NER of about 2.3 and 1.2 for catalytic pyrolysis and HTL, respectively. GHG emissions for the catalytic pyrolysis process were greater than that of petroleum diesel at 210 g CO2 eq compared to 18.9 g CO2 eq. Microalgae bio-oil based diesel with thermochemical conversion through HTL meets renewable fuel standards with favorable emission reductions of -10.8 g CO2 eq. The importance of the outcomes is that the critical fluid extraction and stabilization process improved product stability and did so with minimal energy inputs and processing costs. The LCA and GHG emission calculations point toward the HTL pathway as the more favorable thermochemical route towards upgrading algae to bio-fuels. Since the quality of the HTL oil was significantly lower than that of the catalytic pyrolysis bio-oil, the next steps point toward improving the quality of the HTL oils from algae biomass and focusing the critical fluid stabilization on that bio-oil product.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Plant-level performance and degradation of 31 GW DC of utility-scale PV in the United States

In this updated study, which samples 50% more capacity than the original and adds two additional years of operating history, we assess the performance of a fleet of 631 utility-scale PV plants totaling 31.0 GW DC (23.6 GW AC ) of capacity that achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007-2018 and that have operated for at least two full calendar years. We use detailed information on individual plant characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, to model expected or “ideal” capacity factors in each full calendar year of each plant’s operating history. A comparison of ideal versus actual first-year capacity factors finds that this fleet has modestly underperformed initial expectations (as modeled) on average, though perhaps due as much to modeling issues as to actual underperformance. We then analyze fleet-wide performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on plant performance. The resulting average fleet-wide degradation rate of -1.2%/year (±0.1%) represents a slight improvement (seemingly driven by the oldest plants in our sample) over the -1.3%/year (±0.2%) found in our original study, yet is still of greater magnitude than is commonly found. We emphasize, however, that these fleet-wide estimates reflect both recoverable and unrecoverable degradation across the entire plant, and so will naturally be of greater magnitude than module- or cell-level studies, and/or studies that focus only on unrecoverable degradation. Moreover, when focusing on a sub-sample of newer and larger plants with higher DC:AC ratios—i.e., plants that more-closely resemble what is being built today—we find a more moderate sample-wide average performance decline of -0.7%/year (±0.4%), which is more in line with other estimates from the recent literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Remote sensing applied to forest resources

The development of methodologies to classify reforested areas using remotely sensed data is discussed. A preliminary study was carried out in northeast of the Sao Paulo State in 1978. The reforested areas of Pinus spp and Eucalyptus spp were based on the spectral, spatial and temporal characteristics fo LANDSAT imagery. Afterwards, a more detailed study was carried out in the Mato Grosso do Sul State. The reforested areas were mapped in functions of the age (from: 0 to 1 year, 1 to 2 years, 2 to 3 years, 3 to 4 years, 4 to 5 years and 5 to 6 years) and of the heterogeneity stand (from: 0 to 20%, 20 to 40%, 40 to 60%, 60 to 80% and 80 to 100%). The relative differences between the artificial forest areas, estimated from LANDSAT data and ground information, varied from -8.72 to +9.49%. The estimation of forest volume through a multistage sampling technique, with probability proportional to size, is also discussed.

Hernandezfilho, P.↗