Improving the estimation of atmospheric water vapor pressure using interpretable long short-term memory networks
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The importance of spatial resolution in large-scale, long-term planning models
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Deep neural network enabled corrective source term approach to hybrid analysis and modeling
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Long-term thermal aging of parylene conformal coating under high humidity and its effects on tin whisker mitigation
Usage of pure tin (Sn) or Sn-rich alloy in electronics industry is growing, which makes them more susceptible to the spontaneous growth of tin whiskers. The risk of having these whiskers can be dramatically mitigated by applying a conformal coating provided that it not only possesses excellent mechanical and adhesion properties but also maintains these properties throughout their service. Parylene C is commonly used as a conformal coating because of its favorable mechanical and physical properties, as well as superior conformal coverage. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the degradation of parylene C coating during the thermal aging in high humidity environment (85°C/85% relative humidity for up to 5000hrs) and its effect on the tin whisker mitigation capacity. It was observed that during aging at high temperature and high humidity (HTHH) environment, the oxidation occurs at early times, followed by bond scission, resulting in the loss of strength of the coating. Thinner parylene coating (12.5-μm-thick) had better coating adhesion on the silane-treated tin surface, so provided the better protection for tin whisker penetration than the thicker counterpart (25-μm-thick). After 2500hrs of aging, due to the degradation of the silane agent at the tin/parylene interface, the adhesion of the parylene coating was significantly weakened on the tin surface, which resulted in extensive corrosion of the tin solderpads. The loss of adhesion of the coating, along with the corrosion of the tin surface facilitated the tin whisker nucleation at the interface while the loss of mechanical strength and the brittleness made the coating easily penetrated by the growing whiskers. Tin whiskers with a smaller diameter were buckled and grew along the delaminated region while those with a larger diameter penetrated and continued to grow through the coating. Hence, the effectiveness of the parylene coatings on tin whisker mitigation is significantly reduced under long exposure to such high temperature and high humidity.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Interfacial stabilization for inverted perovskite solar cells with long-term stability
Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) commonly exhibit significant performance degradation due to ion migration through the top charge transport layer and ultimately metal electrode corrosion. Here, we demonstrate an interfacial management strategy using a boron chloride subphthalocyanine (Cl 6 SubPc)/fullerene electron-transport layer, which not only passivates the interfacial defects in the perovskite, but also suppresses halide diffusion as evidenced by multiple techniques, including visual element mapping by electron energy loss spectroscopy. As a result, we obtain inverted PSCs with an efficiency of 22.0% (21.3% certified), shelf life of 7000 h, Τ 80 of 816 h under damp heat stress (compared to less than 20 h without Cl 6 SubPc), and initial performance retention of 98% after 2000 h at 80 °C in inert environment, 90% after 2034 h of illumination and maximum power point tracking in ambient for encapsulated devices and 95% after 1272 h outdoor testing ISOS-O-1. Our strategy and results pave a new way to move PSCs forward to their potential commercialization solidly.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Performance Restoration of Iron Electrodes by Polarity Reversal after Long-Term Surface Fouling in Wastewater Electrocoagulation
Iron electrocoagulation (Fe-EC) performance often declines with time, producing lower contaminant removal efficiencies and higher energy requirements due to formation of a fouling layer on the electrodes. Here, we investigate the formation of the fouling layer and the effectiveness of polarity reversal to restore the Fe-EC performance. A thin, porous iron oxide layer initially forms on the anode, thickening into a dense, over 150-μm thick crystalline layer after extended operation. This fouling layer restricts dissolution and diffusion of Fe ions into the bulk solution, thus increasing the anode potential required to maintain a desired electrical current and decreasing Faradaic efficiency. Polarity reversal applied when performance decline is observed effectively removes the fouling layer, thereby restoring Faradaic and contaminant removal efficiencies and decreasing energy consumption. Our findings suggest that gas generation at the cathode surface after polarity reversal causes removal of the fouling layer. This study enhances the current understanding of fouling-layer formation in Fe-EC and offers a practical approach, involving polarity reversal, to maintain electrode reactivity and optimal Fe-EC performance.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes
Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Forecasting Nodal Price Difference Between Day-Ahead and Real-Time Electricity Markets Using Long-Short Term Memory and Sequence-to-Sequence Networks
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Radiological Source Term Estimation and Isotopic Identification with Parallel Log Domain Particle Filters
This paper presents a parallel log-domain particle filtering algorithm combined with gamma spectrum unfolding to perform localization, identification, and evaluation of multiple point sources of various isotopes in an environment with attenuating obstacles. The method uses sets of precomputed attenuation kernels that map the attenuation characteristics of the environment. These kernels are specific to the energy level of a photopeak of interest. The spectral measurements are deconvolved into count measurements of each photopeak. These count measurements are fed into a set of parallel particle filters using attenuation kernels computed for that photopeak’s energy level. The individual regularized particle filters perform all likelihood calculations in the logarithmic domain to mitigate the effects of particle degeneracy. The output of each particle filter is combined to estimate which isotopes are present as well as their positions and strengths. The performance of the algorithm is characterized in a lab-scale environment using a mobile robot equipped with a gamma ray spectrometer in the presence of up to three different radioactive isotopes simultaneously. The sources were localized to within 10 cm, and their strengths were estimated within 10% of their true values. Furthermore, the isotopes were all correctly identified, and no spurious sources were reported.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans
This guide was developed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between electricity system planners and stakeholders throughout the process. This document was created for anyone who is first getting exposed to scenario results from power system planning models, or for those who are beginning to interact with power system modelers. It does not assume any experience with power system modeling, or familiarity with electricity planning concepts. This guide can be helpful to a wide range of people, including but not limited to state utility commissioners and commission staff, state energy offices, and intervenors in the planning process. It is targeted to those who are evaluating or reviewing model results presented by a utility, which typically span utility-scale generation and storage (and associated transmission) assets. This guide is designed to provide enough background and guidance that stakeholders can formulate and ask questions to evaluate model results through a deeper understanding of the key assumptions, data, and methods that drive decision outcomes. The ultimate purpose of this work is to increase transparency in the electricity planning process by enabling stakeholders to better engage and evaluate model results. A follow-on guide will provide a deeper dive into emerging topics, which are expected to become more prominent in the electricity planning process, but whose methods and approaches are still being refined.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Associating Long-term Gamma-ray Variability with the Superorbital Period of LS I + 61 Deg. 303
Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the gamma-ray binary LS I + 61◦303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the approx. 26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the gamma-ray emission of LS I + 61 deg. 303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use gamma-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.
Be↗
Long-Term Monitoring of the High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from LS I +61 deg 303 and LS 5039
The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) reported the first definitive gigaelectron volts detections of the binaries LS I +61 deg 303 and LS 5039 in the first year after its launch in 2008 June. These detections were unambiguous as a consequence of the reduced positional uncertainty and the detection of modulated gamma-ray emission on the corresponding orbital periods. An analysis of new data from the LAT, comprising 30 months of observations, identifies a change in the gamma-ray behavior of LS I +61 deg 303. An increase in flux is detected in 2009 March and a steady decline in the orbital flux modulation is observed. Significant emission up to 30 gigaelectron volts is detected by the LAT; prior data sets led to upper limits only. Contemporaneous terraelectron volt observations no longer detected the source, or found it-in one orbit-close to periastron, far from the phases at which the source previously appeared at terraelectron volt energies. The detailed numerical simulations and models that exist within the literature do not predict or explain many of these features now observed at gigaelectron volt and terraelectron volt energies. New ideas and models are needed to fully explain and understand this behavior. A detailed phase-resolved analysis of the spectral characterization of LS I +61 deg 303 in the gigaelectron volt regime ascribes a power law with an exponential cutoff spectrum along each analyzed portion of the system's orbit. The on-source exposure of LS 5039 is also substantially increased with respect to our prior publication. In this case, whereas the general gamma-ray properties remain consistent, the increased statistics of the current data set allows for a deeper investigation of its orbital and spectral evolution.
High-energy↗
GES DISC Long-Term Data Analysis Services Using AIRS and CMS Methane Data as an Example
NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple satellite missions and model results. Among those greenhouse gases, atmospheric methane is a powerful greenhouse gas contributing ~0.5 (W/m^2) to total radiative forcing, and its concentration has increased by about 150% since 1750. Observations or estimates of methane emissions typically have sparse spatial and temporal coverage. The lack of comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage of methane source and sink observations has made analyzing atmospheric methane trends challenging. In this study the GES DISC aims to provide the community with the resources to better understand changes in atmospheric methane concentrations and the underlying causes. We will utilize methane datasets from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved methane concentration and three Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) methane emission datasets (in regions of North America, Canada, and Mexico) to compare AIRS methane growth with corresponding CMS regional methane emissions. Comparisons of AIRS methane growth rates and CMS methane emissions suggests wetland emissions may impact methane growth rate trends over North America. As the record for CMS methane data is extended, both datasets can be used in conjunction to better understand impacts on atmospheric methane trends. GES DISCs new anomaly tool can also be used on select datasets to further quantify trends in atmospheric greenhouse gases.
long-term data analysis↗
Land Long Term Climate Data Record
AVHRR data record is well alive and continue to improve and be used by a large land user community.Most of the improvement are due to the overlapping with MODIS Aqua, Terra.We recommend operating missions as long as possible to enable overlap of at least a few years (especially for applications).
Long term climate data record↗
Providing Long-term Solar and Meteorological Resource Information from NASA Research through the GIS-Enabled POWER Web Services Portal
Solar and other renewable energy systems are optimized using geophysical parameters describing information about the solar resource and meteorological environments and how those environments may be changing in time. The Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource (POWER) team at the NASA LaRC Research Center deployed its first version of the revitalized POWER geophysical parameter website that employs Esri Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. This web application provides access to both time series and climatological data sets spanning from a few days behind real-time back to the early 1980’s with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree, thus extending over 30 years. The GIS tools enable, generate and store climatological averages using spatial queries and calculations in a spatial database resulting in greater accessibility to government agencies, industry and individuals. There is an API that provides data through a URL coding and can also invoked inside user software packages. Output data formats now include ASCII, CSV, geoTiff, JSON and .netCDF. Since May 2018, over 10.4 TB of data have been delivered to fulfill over 110 million data requests from 240,000 unique user IPs (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). This presentation provides an overview of this project and the current version of the new POWER web capabilities through to the end usage. Surface solar parameters are adapted from both the NASA/GEWEX (Global and Energy Water Cycle Exchange) SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project and the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data products. The meteorological parameters are adapted from NASA’s MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). We review uncertainty of various basic parameters using surface measurements. After the introduction, we specifically discuss various clusters of parameters for equator pointing tilted surfaces that provide for the estimation of optimal tilt angle by month and year. The discussion will emphasize a few examples of how solar and building engineers are using the data products. We will then preview the capabilities of Version 2 featuring examples of hourly solar and meteorological data products, customized user reports and expanded web mapping services from CERES data products. The web services provide a unique, expandable resource for renewable energy systems engineers to design, evaluate and optimize to environments worldwide.
Solar Resource↗
Temperature Climatology of the Middle Atmosphere from Long-Term Lidar Measurements at Mid- and Low-Latitudes
This paper describes a seasonal climatology of the middle atmosphere temperature derived from lidar measurements obtained at several mid- and low-latitude locations.
Mid-↗
Considerations for Long-Term Load Forecasting in Morocco
There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. These factors include GDP, population size, and technology diffusion and adoption. We employ a simple extrapolation of current trends in Morocco GDP to estimate how the peak demand and annual consumption may change through the year 2030. We discuss the many factors that this approach does not take into account (such as adoption of air conditioning, electric vehicles, and distributed generation).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Transparent and Conductive Inorganic/Polymer‐Composite Encapsulants for Long‐Term Perovskite Solar Cells Operation
An innovative inorganic/polymer-composite encapsulation scheme comprising a polymer-based transparent conductive composite (TCC) coupled with a transparent conductive oxide is introduced to extend the lifetime of moisture-sensitive devices such as perovskite solar cells (PSC). The TCC comprises conductive silver-coated polymethyl methacrylate (Ag-PMMA) microsphere fillers protruding from a transparent non-conductive polymer matrix. TCC samples (5% Ag-PMMA by area) demonstrate high optical transparencies (%T approx. 85% in the 370–1200 nm region), low out-of-plane electrical resistivities (R < 0.2 Ω cm 2 ), and equilibrium permeabilities of less than 1 g mm/m 2 /day, all of which are well-maintained after 1,000 hours of environmental exposure. In practice, the TCC is employed between two indium zinc oxide (IZO) thin films, with the in-plane conductivity of IZO and the out-of-plane conductivity of TCC working collectively to function as a single encapsulating electrode. This encapsulation scheme is exemplified by benchmarking performances of PSCs subjected to accelerated aging conditions of quasi-maximum power point tracking under light soaking in air at 50 °C, 40% R.H. to 60% R.H. Notable improvements in operational lifetimes are observed, with a champion encapsulated PSC maintaining over 90% of its initial efficiency of 21.65% for up to 1,430 hours, compare to less than 300 hours for an unencapsulated control.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗