Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “temporal computing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based spatiotemporal multi-event reconstruction for delay line detectors

Abstract Accurate observation of two or more particles within a very narrow time window has always been a challenge in modern physics. It creates the possibility of correlation experiments, such as the ground-breaking Hanbury Brown–Twiss experiment, leading to new physical insights. For low-energy electrons, one possibility is to use a Microchannel plate with subsequent delay lines for the readout of the incident particle hits, a setup called a Delay Line Detector. The spatial and temporal coordinates of more than one particle can be fully reconstructed outside a region called the dead radius. For interesting events, where two electrons are close in space and time, the determination of the individual positions of the electrons requires elaborate peak finding algorithms. While classical methods work well with single particle hits, they fail to identify and reconstruct events caused by multiple nearby particles. To address this challenge, we present a new spatiotemporal machine learning model to identify and reconstruct the position and time of such multi-hit particle signals. This model achieves a much better resolution for nearby particle hits compared to the classical approach, removing some of the artifacts and reducing the dead radius a factor of eight. We show that machine learning models can be effective in improving the spatiotemporal performance of delay line detectors.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

LeaPP: Learning Pathways to Polymorphs through Machine Learning Analysis of Atomic Trajectories

Understanding the mechanisms underlying crystal nucleation and growth is crucial for many technological applications. Due to the short length and time scales involved, crystal nucleation is often studied using molecular simulations. Most existing approaches to extract the nucleation mechanism from simulations focus on the analysis of static snapshots of the configurations, potentially overlooking subtle local fluctuations and the history of the particles involved in the formation of solid nuclei. Here, in this work, we propose a novel methodology called LeaPP that categorizes nucleation trajectories based on the temporal information of their constituent particles. We leverage the time evolution of the local environment of the crystallizing particles to encapsulate the relationship between the structure and dynamics and distinguish between different evolving particle paths. Identification of the distinct particle paths further enables characterizing the nucleation trajectories into different pathways. Collectively, LeaPP provides a more nuanced understanding of nucleation through an unsupervised approach with lesser dependence on traditional order parameters. Furthermore, the pathways identified by LeaPP are predictive of the resulting polymorph. We demonstrate LeaPP on three different systems─Lennard-Jones-like particles, Ni 3 Al, and water on surfaces. The general methodology underlying LeaPP─considering the time evolution of the building blocks─applies to a wide range of self-assembly problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Short-term solar irradiance forecasting via satellite/model coupling

Here, the short-term (0-3 h) prediction of solar insolation for renewable energy production is a problem well-suited to satellite-based techniques. The spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution of instrumentation hosted on the geostationary platform allows these satellites to describe the current cloud spatial distribution and optical properties. These properties relate directly to the transient properties of the downwelling solar irradiance at the surface, which come in the form of 'ramps' that pose a central challenge to energy load balancing in a spatially distributed network of solar farms. The short-term evolution of the cloud field may be approximated to first order simply as translational, but care must be taken in how the advection is handled and where the impacts are assigned. In this research, we describe how geostationary satellite observations are used with operational cloud masking and retrieval algorithms, wind field data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), and radiative transfer calculations to produce short-term forecasts of solar insolation for applications in solar power generation. The scheme utilizes retrieved cloud properties to group pixels into contiguous cloud objects whose future positions are predicted using four-dimensional (space + time) model wind fields, selecting steering levels corresponding to the cloud height properties of each cloud group. The shadows associated with these clouds are adjusted for sensor viewing parallax displacement and combined with solar geometry and terrain height to determine the actual location of cloud shadows. For mid/high-level clouds at mid-latitudes and high solar zenith angles, the combined displacements from these geometric considerations are non-negligible. The cloud information is used to initialize a radiative transfer model that computes the direct and diffuse-sky solar insolation at both shadow locations and intervening clear-sky regions. Here, we describe the formulation of the algorithm and validate its performance against Surface Radiation (SURFRAD; Augustine et al., 2000, 2005) network observations. Typical errors range from 8.5% to 17.2% depending on the complexity of cloud regimes, and an operational demonstration outperformed persistence-based forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) under all conditions by ~10 W/m 2 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parallel hybrid quantum-classical machine learning for kernelized time-series classification

Supervised time-series classification garners widespread interest because of its applicability throughout a broad application domain including finance, astronomy, biosensors, and many others. Here, in this work, we tackle this problem with hybrid quantum-classical machine learning, deducing pairwise temporal relationships between time-series instances using a timeseries Hamiltonian kernel (TSHK). A TSHK is constructed with a sum of inner products generated by quantum states evolved using a parameterized time evolution operator. This sum is then optimally weighted using techniques derived from multiple kernel learning. Because we treat the kernel weighting step as a differentiable convex optimization problem, our method can be regarded as an end-to-end learnable hybrid quantum-classical-convex neural network, or QCC-net, whose output is a data set-generalized kernel function suitable for use in any kernelized machine learning technique such as the support vector machine (SVM). Using our TSHK as input to a SVM, we classify univariate and multivariate time-series using quantum circuit simulators and demonstrate the efficient parallel deployment of the algorithm to 127-qubit superconducting quantum processors using quantum multi-programming.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

FIND: A Synthetic weather generator to control drought Frequency, Intensity, and Duration

Water systems worldwide are experiencing climate change-induced shifts in drought properties like frequency, intensity, and duration, affecting water security and reliability. To develop and test effective drought preparedness plans, researchers often use synthetic weather generators to create hydrological scenarios that explore drought variability beyond historical records. Existing weather generators typically allow users to adjust streamflow statistics like percentiles or temporal correlation but do not directly control drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. To fill this gap, we propose FIND (Frequency, INtensity, and Duration) synthetic weather generator. FIND incorporates a standardized drought index to directly and in dependently control drought frequency, intensity, and duration in generated streamflow time series while preserving observed hydrological variability. Use cases for FIND include i) water systems analysis applications that seek to train and test drought strategies under historical and plausible future drought conditions, and ii) bottom-up vulnerability studies relating system vulnerability outcomes to specific changes in drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. Here, we demonstrate FIND’s versatility through three experiments: replicating historically observed drought properties, generating streamflow scenarios for multiple sites preserving correlation between their drought conditions, and generating a set of scenarios with direct and independent changes in drought properties. FIND source code is openly available for applications beyond the scope of this paper.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Analysis of Regular Material Point Method and its Application to Multiphase Flows

The material point method (MPM) is gaining wide popularity in engineering research to model and simulate complex multiphase flow dynamics. The method relies on solving the governing equations of motion and transport in a Lagrangian framework using particles also known as material points. The fluid and kinematic properties are stored on the material points while the spatial gradient calculation and temporal integration are performed on a background grid. This Lagrangian framework allows for large deformations, easy integration of constitutive models, and direct import of complex geometries as particles. However, despite their increasing popularity, very few studies have addressed the issues of numerical resolution and stability of MPM techniques. The presence of additional factors such as the number of material points-per-cell, the location of the material points, the CFL-like condition used in time update, and the grid shape functions also increase the complexity of the error analysis when compared to other finite element methods. In this presentation, we analyze the various forms of error incurred in the application of MPM to continuum mechanics and multiphase flows. The effect of the previously mentioned factors on the error dynamics is studied. The application of these principles to canonical and industrial problems is also presented.

high pressure reverse osmosis↗
DOE OSTI2015

Data integration reveals key homeostatic mechanisms following low dose radiation exposure

The goal of this study was to define pathways regulated by low dose radiation to understand how biological systems respond to subtle perturbations in their environment and prioritize pathways for human health assessment. Using an in vitro 3-D human full thickness skin model, we have examined the temporal response of dermal and epidermal layers to 10 cGy X-ray using transcriptomic, proteomic, phosphoproteomic and metabolomic platforms. Bioinformatics analysis of each dataset independently revealed potential signaling mechanisms affected by low dose radiation, and integrating data shed additional insight into the mechanisms regulating low dose responses in human tissue. We examined direct interactions among datasets (top down approach) and defined several hubs as significant regulators, including transcription factors (YY1, MYC and CREB1), kinases (CDK2, PLK1) and a protease (MMP2). These data indicate a shift in response across time — with an increase in DNA repair, tissue remodeling and repression of cell proliferation acutely (24–72 h). Pathway-based integration (bottom up approach) identified common molecular and pathway responses to low dose radiation, including oxidative stress, nitric oxide signaling and transcriptional regulation through the SP1 factor that would not have been identified by the individual data sets. Significant regulation of key downstream metabolites of nitrative stress was measured within these pathways. Among the features identified in our study, the regulation of MMP2 and SP1 was experimentally validated. Our results demonstrate the advantage of data integration to broadly define the pathways and networks that represent the mechanisms by which complex biological systems respond to perturbation. - Highlights: • Low dose ionizing radiation altered homeostasis in 3D skin tissue model. • Global gene/protein/metabolite data integrated using complementary statistical approaches • Time and location-specific change in matrix regulation, ROS/RNS and DNA repair pathways detected • Low dose exposure alters metabolites involved in nitric oxide biosynthesis and wound healing. • Computationally predicted regulators of primary mechanisms were experimentally validated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations derived from the CAMS reanalysis

Determining number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is one of the first steps in the chain in analysis of cloud droplet formation, the direct microphysical link between aerosols and cloud droplets, and a process key for aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI). However, due to sparse coverage of in situ measurements and difficulties associated with retrievals from satellites, a global exploration of their magnitude, source as well as temporal and spatial distribution cannot be easily obtained. Thus, a better representation of CCN numbers is one of the goals for quantifying ACI processes and achieving uncertainty-reduced estimates of their associated radiative forcing. Here, we introduce a new CCN dataset which is derived based on aerosol mass mixing ratios from the latest Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA) in a diagnostic model that uses CAMSRA aerosol properties and a simplified kappa-Köhler framework suitable for global models. The emitted aerosols in CAMSRA are not only based on input from emission inventories using aerosol observations, they also have a strong tie to satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) as this is assimilated as a constraining factor in the reanalysis. Furthermore, the reanalysis interpolates for cases of poor or missing retrievals and thus allows for a full spatiotemporal quantification of CCN numbers. The derived CCN dataset captures the general trend and spatial and temporal distribution of total CCN number concentrations and CCN from different aerosol species. A brief evaluation with ground-based in situ measurements demonstrates the improvement of the modelled CCN over the sole use of AOD as a proxy for CCN as the overall correlation coefficient improved from 0.37 to 0.71. However, we find the modelled CCN from CAMSRA to be generally high biased and find a particular erroneous overestimation at one heavily polluted site which emphasises the need for further validation. The CCN dataset (https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/QUAERERE_CCNCAMS_v1, Block, 2023), which is now freely available to users, features 3-D CCN number concentrations of global coverage for various supersaturations and aerosol species covering the years 2003–2021 with daily frequency. This dataset is one of its kind as it offers lots of opportunities to be used for evaluation in models and in ACI studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Respecting causality for training physics-informed neural networks

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. Here we provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier–Stokes equations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High entropy alloys as catalysts: A focused review

A brief literature review of recent experimental and computational efforts on the use of high entropy alloys (HEAs) as catalysts is presented, while also sharing some perspectives and future insights. To fully broach the vast compositional possibilities of HEA materials, integrating computational modeling with high-throughput experimental synthesis and validation is necessary to accelerate their design and development. Once identified, specific HEAs can be a class of materials for the next generation of catalysts when addressing global challenges related to energy independence, commodity chemical production, environmental remediation, abating emissions, and modernized domestic supply chain resilience.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

GRIZZLY Model of Multi-Reactive Species Diffusion, Moisture/Heat Transfer and Alkali-Silica Reaction for Simulating Concrete Aging and Degradation

Concrete is widely used in the construction of nuclear facilities because of its structural strength and its ability to shield radiation. The use of concrete in nuclear power plants for containment and shielding of radiation and radioactive materials has made its performance crucial for the safe operation of the facility. As such, when life extension is considered for nuclear power plants, it is critical to have accurate and reliable predictive tools to address concerns related to various aging processes of concrete structures and the capacity of structures subjected to age-related degradation. The goal of this report is to document the progress of the development and implementation of a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical model in GRIZZLY code with the ultimate goal to reliably simulate and predict long-term performance and response of aged NPP concrete structures subjected to a number of aging mechanisms including external chemical attacks and volume-changing chemical reactions within concrete structures induced by alkali-silica reactions and long-term exposure to irradiation. Based on a number of survey reports of concrete aging mechanisms relevant to nuclear power plants and recommendations from researchers in concrete community, we’ve implemented three modules during FY15 in GRIZZLY code, (1) multi-species reactive diffusion model within cement materials; (2) coupled moisture and heat transfer model in concrete; and (3) anisotropic, stress-dependent, alkali-silica reaction induced swelling model. The multi-species reactive diffusion model was implemented with the objective to model aging of concrete structures subjected to aggressive external chemical attacks (e.g., chloride attack, sulfate attack, etc.). It considers multiple processes relevant to external chemical attacks such as diffusion of ions in aqueous phase within pore spaces, equilibrium chemical speciation reactions and kinetic mineral dissolution/precipitation. The moisture/heat transfer module was implemented to simulate long-term spatial and temporal evolutions of the moisture and temperature fields within concrete structures at both room and elevated temperatures. The ASR swelling model implemented in GRIZZLY code can simulate anisotropic expansions of ASR gel under either uniaxial, biaxial and triaxial stress states, and can be run simultaneously with the moisture/heat transfer model and coupled with various elastic/inelastic solid mechanics models that were implemented in GRIZZLY code previously. This report provides detailed descriptions of the governing equations, constitutive equations and numerical algorithms of the three modules implemented in GRIZZLY during FY15, simulation results of example problems and model validation results by comparing simulations with available experimental data reported in the literature. The close match between the experiments and simulations clearly demonstrate the potential of GRIZZLY code for reliable evaluation and prediction of long-term performance and response of aged concrete structures in nuclear power plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulating the Effect of Fracture Connectivity on Repository Performance with GDSA Framework - 18589

This work examines the possible migration of radionuclides from a deep geologic nuclear waste repository sited in fractured crystalline host rock. The key safety concern is the potential effect on waste isolation of the inter-connectivity of the fracture network, which is primarily established by the temporal evolution of the temperature and stress fields at the time of original rock intrusion and cooling. Two end members are considered in these simulations, one with a high degree of connectivity to the biosphere, such that advective transport through the fracture and fault network controls radionuclide migration, and the other with a low degree of connectivity, such that slow diffusive transport through the crystalline rock matrix is the controlling process for radionuclide migration to the biosphere. Both end members have several areally extensive, high-transmissivity deformation zones, whose distance to the repository is an important factor for waste isolation capability. Uncertainties in fracture properties (transmissivity, orientation, radius) and fracture distribution also give rise to uncertainty in waste isolation capability (i.e., the overall connectivity of the repository with the surface biosphere). These types of natural system uncertainties are generally present in any geologic site-characterization program and thus represent an important factor in assessing repository performance in hard rock environments. The waste considered in these simulations are spent fuel rod assemblies from the U.S. commercial nuclear reactor fleet. Thermal output of the waste must be considered in the simulations and can influence the rate and timing of waste package failure, waste form degradation, and fluid flux due to thermal expansion around the repository horizon. To achieve a high-fidelity representation of radionuclide transport in fractures and rock matrix, combined with thermal energy transport and fluid flow in fractures and matrix, the mathematical model is solved numerically in a parallel high-performance computing (HPC) environment on a finite volume unstructured grid consisting of approximately 5 million cells, using Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework (https://pa.sandia.gov), an open-source performance assessment tool for deep underground disposal of nuclear waste. GDSA Framework uses PFLOTRAN to solve the balance equations on a three-dimensional grid with heterogeneous properties, using multiple processors in a parallel configuration based on domain decomposition. The fracture networks in these simulations are originally generated as discrete fracture networks (DFNs), which are sets of two-dimensional planes distributed in a three-dimensional domain. The method used in GDSA Framework maps the stochastically generated DFN to an equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) domain that allows for the simulation of coupled heat flow, fluid flow, and radionuclide transport, including heat conduction through the matrix of the fractured rock, which is a process not easily modeled in a DFN representation. Computational efficiency is also greatly enhanced using the ECPM method, allowing for a realistic representation and analysis of uncertainties in a multi-realization performance assessment of a deep geologic repository. The effect of fracture connectivity on the waste isolation safety function, as brought to light by these GDSA Framework simulations, points to the importance of including a realistic representation of uncertainties in fracture properties and distribution (effectively, uncertainty in spatial heterogeneity) in repository safety assessment simulations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Disorder in Urban Traffic Patterns: A Low Rank Analysis

This article proposes several advances to sparse nonnegative matrix factorization (SNMF) as a way to identify large-scale patterns in urban traffic data. The input to our model is traffic counts organized by time and location. Nonnegative matrix factorization additively decomposes this information, organized as a matrix, into a linear sum of temporal signatures. Penalty terms encourage this factorization to concentrate on only a few temporal signatures, with weights which are not too large. Our interest here is to quantify and compare the regularity of traffic behavior, particularly across different broad temporal windows. In addition to the rank and error, we adapt a measure introduced by Hoyer to quantify sparsity in the representation. Combining these, we construct several curves which quantify error as a function of rank (the number of possible signatures) and sparsity; as rank goes up and sparsity goes down, the approximation can be better and the error should decreases. Plots of several such curves corresponding to different time windows leads to a way to compare disorder/order at different time scalewindows. In this paper, we apply our algorithms and procedures to study a taxi traffic dataset from New York City. In this dataset, we find weekly periodicity in the signatures, which allows us an extra framework for identifying outliers as significant deviations from weekly medians. We then apply our seasonal disorder analysis to the New York City traffic data and seasonal (spring, summer, winter, fall) time windows. We do find seasonal differences in traffic order.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Multiscale eddy simulation for moist atmospheric convection: Preliminary investigation

A multiscale computational framework is designed for simulating atmospheric convection and clouds. In this multiscale framework, large eddy simulation (LES) is used to model the coarse scales of 100 m and larger, and a stochastic, one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model is used to represent the fine scales of 100 m and smaller. Coupled and evolving together, these two components provide a multiscale eddy simulation (MES). Through its fine-scale turbulence and moist thermodynamics, MES allows coarse grid cells to be partially cloudy and to encompass cloudy–clear air mixing on scales down to 1 m; in contrast, in typical LES such fine-scale processes are not represented or are parameterized using bulk deterministic closures. To illustrate MES and investigate its multiscale dynamics, a shallow cumulus cloud field is simulated. The fine-scale variability is seen to take a plausible form, with partially cloudy grid cells prominent near cloud edges and cloud top. From earlier theoretical work, this mixing of cloudy and clear air is believed to have an important impact on buoyancy. However, contrary to expectations based on earlier theoretical studies, the mean statistics of the bulk cloud field are essentially the same in MES and LES; possible reasons for this are discussed, including possible limitations in the present formulation of MES. One difference between LES and MES is seen in the coarse-scale turbulent kinetic energy, which appears to grow slowly in time due to incoherent stochastic fluctuations in the buoyancy. This and other considerations suggest the need for some type of spatial and/or temporal filtering to attenuate undersampling of the stochastic fine-scale processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗