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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Fixed interval smoothing with discrete measurements.

Smoothing equations for a linear continuous dynamic system with linear discrete measurements, derived from the discrete results of Rauch, Tung, and Striebel (1965), (R-T-S), are used to extend, through recursive updating, the previously published results of Bryson and Frazier (1963), (B-F), and yield a modified Bryson and Frazier, (M-B-F), algorithm. A comparison of the (M-B-F) and (R-T-S) algorithms leads to the conclusion that the former is to be preferred because it entails less computation, less storage, and less instability. It is felt that the presented (M-B-F) smoothing algorithm is a practical mechanization and should be of value in smoothing discretely observed dynamic linear systems.

Bierman, G. J.↗

Normal stability of slow manifolds in nearly periodic Hamiltonian systems

Kruskal [J. Math. Phys. 3, 806 (1962)] showed that each nearly periodic dynamical system admits a formal U(1) symmetry, generated by the so-called roto-rate. We prove that such systems also admit nearly invariant manifolds of each order, near which rapid oscillations are suppressed. We study the nonlinear normal stability of these slow manifolds for nearly periodic Hamiltonian systems on barely symplectic manifolds—manifolds equipped with closed, non-degenerate 2-forms that may be degenerate to leading order. In particular, we establish a sufficient condition for long-term normal stability based on second derivatives of the well-known adiabatic invariant. We use these results to investigate the problem of embedding guiding center dynamics of a magnetized charged particle as a slow manifold in a nearly periodic system. Here, we prove that one previous embedding and two new embeddings enjoy long-term normal stability and thereby strengthen the theoretical justification for these models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Examination of Semi-Analytical Solution Methods in the Coarse Operator of Parareal Algorithm for Power System Simulation

With continuing advances in high-performance parallel computing platforms, parallel algorithms have become powerful tools for development of faster than real-time power system dynamic simulations. In particular, it has been demonstrated in recent years that parallel-in-time (Parareal) algorithms have the potential to achieve such an ambitious goal. Here, the selection of a fast and reasonably accurate coarse operator of the Parareal algorithm is crucial for its effective utilization and performance. This paper examines semi-analytical solution (SAS) methods as the coarse operators of the Parareal algorithm and explores performance of the SAS methods to the standard numerical time integration methods. Two promising time-power series-based SAS methods were considered; Adomian decomposition method and Homotopy analysis method with a windowing approach for improving the convergence. Numerical performance case studies on 10-generator 39-bus system and 327-generator 2383-bus system were performed for these coarse operators over different disturbances, evaluating the number of Parareal iterations, computational time, and stability of convergence. All the coarse operators tested with different scenarios have converged to the same corresponding true solution (if they are convergent) and the SAS methods provide comparable computational speed, while having more stable convergence to the true solution in many cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

U.S. lithium resources from geothermal and extraction feasibility

As the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) increases, demand for lithium (Li) is expected to grow over the coming decade. To satisfy the demand for rechargeable batteries, it is imperative to devise solutions for sufficient Li production. Additionally, even though commercial Li currently comes from conventional saline salar brine and spodumene ore extractions, efforts to retrieve Li from geothermal brines are increasing in popularity. In this paper, we evaluate the United States’ potential to supply Li from geothermal brines using Systems Dynamics modeling. The main goals are to assess (1) the viability of US Li supply from geothermal brines and (2) the potential supply chain impact of extracting Li from this source. Results show that Li supply from geothermal brines could (1) reach around 4% to 8% of total US Li supply and (2) be economically viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Statistical physics and physiology: monofractal and multifractal approaches

Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Large Deviations for Gaussian Diffusions with Delay

Dynamical systems driven by nonlinear delay SDEs with small noise can exhibit important rare events on long timescales. When there is no delay, classical large deviations theory quantifies rare events such as escapes from metastable fixed points. Near such fixed points, one can approximate nonlinear delay SDEs by linear delay SDEs. Here, we develop a fully explicit large deviations framework for (necessarily Gaussian) processes X{sub t} driven by linear delay SDEs with small diffusion coefficients. Our approach enables fast numerical computation of the action functional controlling rare events for X{sub t} and of the most likely paths transiting from X{sub 0}=p to X{sub T}=q. Via linear noise local approximations, we can then compute most likely routes of escape from metastable states for nonlinear delay SDEs. We apply our methodology to the detailed dynamics of a genetic regulatory circuit, namely the co-repressive toggle switch, which may be described by a nonlinear chemical Langevin SDE with delay.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Impact of automated battery sorting for mineral recovery from lithium-ion battery recycling in the United States

The United States has identified several lithium-ion battery materials as critical for reaching the national emission reduction targets that have been set in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, with few natural resources available domestically, there is a rapidly growing focus on the development of a domestic recycling industry to recover these materials from end-of-life batteries. Here, we use the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to evaluate the impact of automated battery sorting technology in terms of the shares of cobalt and nickel that are recovered through recycling. Findings show that automated sorting has clear benefits over manual sorting methods by helping recyclers selectively process high-cobalt batteries. By maximizing cobalt recovery, recycling becomes more profitable and drives greater investment in recycling capacity, resulting in a higher share of nickel and cobalt recovered from EOL batteries over time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Scalable, Out-of-Band Diagnostics Architecture for International Space Station Systems Support

The computational infrastructure of the International Space Station (ISS) is a dynamic system that supports multiple vehicle subsystems such as Caution and Warning, Electrical Power Systems and Command and Data Handling (C&DH), as well as scientific payloads of varying size and complexity. The dynamic nature of the ISS configuration coupled with the increased demand for payload support places a significant burden on the inherently resource constrained computational infrastructure of the ISS. Onboard system diagnostics applications are hosted on computers that are elements of the avionics network while ground-based diagnostic applications receive only a subset of available telemetry, down-linked via S-band communications. In this paper we propose a scalable, out-of-band diagnostics architecture for ISS systems support that uses a read-only connection for C&DH data acquisition, which provides a lower cost of deployment and maintenance (versus a higher criticality readwrite connection). The diagnostics processing burden is off-loaded from the avionics network to elements of the on-board LAN that have a lower overall cost of operation and increased computational capacity. A superset of diagnostic data, richer in content than the configured telemetry, is made available to Advanced Diagnostic System (ADS) clients running on wireless handheld devices, affording the crew greater mobility for troubleshooting and providing improved insight into vehicle state. The superset of diagnostic data is made available to the ground in near real-time via an out-of band downlink, providing a high level of fidelity between vehicle state and test, training and operational facilities on the ground.

Fletcher, Daryl P.↗

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Radioisotope Power System (DRPS) Design Reference Mission (DRM) Lunar Rover

The Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program tasked the Compass Team to evaluate use of Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS) for lunar science rovers. The object was to identify their advantages and challenges as well as to influence the technology developments with flight-type requirements. This was easily done by using the promising Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) solar- powered rover mission as a platform to ‘swap in’ a DRPS. The ‘pickup truck bed’ approach allowed both simplified installation and operation of the DRPS while keeping the forward lunar surface ‘blocked’ from the DRPS waste heat which could sublimate the icy surface. It was found that with the Stirling DRPS option the mass is within the planned VIPER lander capability and is very close to VIPER mass and size (the DRPS replaces large battery pack/solar arrays). The Stirling DRPS option produced ~300 Watts electrical (We) using six general purpose heat source (GPHS) bricks and eight Stirling convertors. Replacing the solar/battery power with radioisotope power allows a continuous presence (instead of 6 hours) in a permanently shadowed region (PSR) and over 18 months of operations with minimal science impact (rearward surface heating). It was also found that use of a dynamic system (instead of a thermoelectric system) reduces the heat impact on the science environment two-to-three times. The DRPS, along with a relay link (like Gateway), can provide continuous access to PSRs. The system was also found to be capable of roving for 8 hours per day with a range of over 500 km in 18 months. Preliminary cost estimates fit into a Class D mission but only assuming VIPER heritage and launch, lander, operations, nuclear specific costs [National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), fueling, transport, Launch Services Program (LSP), etc.] and DRPS are not included.

DRPS↗

SNS: A Solution-Based Nonlinear Subspace Method for Time-Dependent Model Order Reduction

Several reduced order models have been successfully developed for nonlinear dynamical systems. To achieve a considerable speed-up, a hyper-reduction step is needed to reduce the computational complexity due to nonlinear terms. Many hyper-reduction techniques require the construction of nonlinear term basis, which introduces a computationally expensive offline phase. A novel way of constructing nonlinear term basis within the hyper-reduction process is introduced. In contrast to the traditional hyper-reduction techniques where the collection of nonlinear term snapshots is required, the SNS method avoids collecting the nonlinear term snapshots. Instead, it uses the solution snapshots that are used for building a solution basis, which enables avoiding an extra data compression of nonlinear term snapshots. As a result, the SNS method provides a more efficient offline strategy than the traditional model order reduction techniques, such as the DEIM, GNAT, and ST-GNAT methods. The SNS method is theoretically justified by the conforming subspace condition and the subspace inclusion relation. It is useful for model order reduction of large-scale nonlinear dynamical problems to reduce the offline cost. It is especially useful for ST-GNAT that has shown promising results, such as a good accuracy with a considerable online speed-up for hyperbolic problems in a recent paper by Choi and Carlberg [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 41 (2019), pp. A26--A58], because ST-GNAT involves an expensive offline cost related to collecting nonlinear term snapshots. Error analysis for the SNS method is presented. Numerical results support that the accuracy of the solution from the SNS method is comparable to the traditional methods and a considerable speed-up (i.e., a factor of two to a hundred) is achieved in the offline phase.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Explicit Weierstrass traveling wave solutions and bifurcation analysis for dissipative Zakharov–Kuznetsov modified equal width equation

We consider the dissipative Zakharov–Kuznetsov modified equal width (ZK-MEW) equation and discuss the effect of the dissipation on the existence and nature of traveling wave solutions of the equation. We use Lyapunov function and dynamical system theory in order to show that when viscosity term is added to the ZK-MEW equation, yet there exists still bounded traveling wave solutions in certain regions. Subsequently, we obtain general solution of the ZK-MEW equation in the presence and absence of viscosity in terms of Weirstrass ℘ functions and Jacobi elliptic functions. We also derive a new form of kink-type solution by exploring a factorization method based on functional transformation and the Abel’s first order nonlinear equation. Finally, we use the phase plane analysis and examine the stability of the viscous waves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

On the connection between microbursts and nonlinear electronic structures in planetary radiation belts

Using a dynamical-system approach, we have investigated the efficiency of large-amplitude whistler waves for causing microburst precipitation in planetary radiation belts by modeling the microburst energy and particle fluxes produced as a result of nonlinear wave–particle interactions. We show that wave parameters, consistent with large-amplitude oblique whistlers, can commonly generate microbursts of electrons with hundreds of keV-energies as a result of Landau trapping. Relativistic microbursts (>1 MeV) can also be generated by a similar mechanism, but require waves with large propagation angles θ{sub kB}>50{sup ∘} and phase-speeds v{sub Φ}⩾c/9. Using our result for precipitating density and energy fluxes, we argue that holes in the distribution function of electrons near the magnetic mirror point can result in the generation of double layers and electron solitary holes consistent in scales (of the order of Debye lengths) to nonlinear structures observed in the radiation belts by the Van Allen Probes. Our results indicate a relationship between nonlinear electrostatic and electromagnetic structures in the dynamics of planetary radiation belts and their role in the cyclical production of energetic electrons (E⩾100 keV) on kinetic timescales, which is much faster than previously inferred.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗

Application of local Lyapunov exponents to maneuver design and navigation in the three-body problem

Dynamical systems theory has recently been employed to design trajectories within the three-body problem for several missions. This research has applied one stability technique, the calculation of local Lyapunov exponents, to such trajectories. Local Lyapunov exponents give an indication of the effects that perturbations or maneuvers will have on trajectories over a specified time. A numerical comparison of local Lyapunov exponents was first made with the distance random perturbations traveled from a nominal trajectory, and the local Lyapunov exponents were found to correspond well with the perturbations that caused the greatest deviation from the nominal. This would allow them to be used as an indicator of the points where it would be important to reduce navigation uncertainties.

dynamical systems theory↗

The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization Framework: A Case Study of Wind Blade Circularity in Texas

Moving the current linear economy toward circularity is expected to have environmental, economic, and social impacts. Various modeling methods, including economic input-output modeling, life cycle assessment, agent-based modeling, and system dynamics, have been used to examine circular supply chains and analyze their impacts. This work describes the newly developed Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework, which is designed to model how the impacts of supply chains might change as circularity increases. We first establish the framework with a discussion of modeling capabilities that are needed to capture circularity transitions; these capabilities are based on the fact that supply chains moving toward circularity are dynamic and therefore not at steady state, may encompass multiple industrial sectors or other interdependent supply chains and occupy a large spatial area. To demonstrate the capabilities of CELAVI, we present a case study on end-of-life wind turbine blades in the U.S. state of Texas. Our findings show that depending on exact process costs and transportation distances, mechanical recycling could lead to 69% or more of end-of-life turbine blade mass being kept in circulation rather than being landfilled, with only a 7.1% increase in global warming potential over the linear supply chain. We discuss next steps for framework development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗